Back to the hot Thabo action.  I thought this quote from Kirk was important:

Sam should have left it at that, but if he had, this thread wouldn't exist and we would have nothing to keep us occupied on a Monday morning.

Gordon's passport out of town was stamped the minute he was shifted back to 6th man.  It was either accept the huge pay cut that goes with being a bench player, or salvage some trade value for the guy and move him before the deadline.  

Sam's article makes perfect sense.  Gordon, along with Ben Wallace, are the prime guys to be moved.

I base this on several things:

1. The Bulls have shown themselves to be extremely luxury tax averse and have mismanaged things to the extent that they'll likely have to pay the tax to keep both Gordon and Deng. I say mis-managed because if the Bulls knew these constraints going in (and I think Pax would be incompetent not to) I think it's simply mismanagement to sign Andres Nocioni to a deal that will play him $8M next year and then be in a position to lose Ben Gordon for having to pay the luxury tax.  The Bulls currently project to be about $19M under the luxury tax threshold for next year, based on their current roster and around $2M for their first round pick.  If Deng and Gordon were to get backloaded offers of around 6 years, $64M (which is fairly similar to the 5 year $54M deal they both declined), they can both be signed for about $17M next year.

However, if some other team forces the Bulls to match a significantly higher offer on Deng or Gordon, or even does something like front-load the same sort of offer the Bulls might make (a 6yr/$64M deal for one of those guys frontloaded would start at $12.96M) then the Bulls total outlay for those two guys next season ends up at between $20M and $26M.  That puts the Bulls between $1M and $6M over the luxury tax threshold.

The danger here is pretty simple.  Any team with cap room can look at the Bulls and think it's possible to steal one of our RFAs.  And based on front loading, they wouldn't really even have to significantly overpay to do it.  Basically a team could just do what Miami did to the LA Clippers a couple years back.  The Heat extended a big offer to Elton Brand, and while the Clippers matched it, they then didn't want to match the offer the Heat made next to Lamar Odom.

When thinking about how the Bulls operate financially, I tend the think the Clippers are a good model. :(

So what options do the Bulls have if they do nothing:

1. Not deal with Gordon and/or Deng and hope one of them doesn't get an offer starting at more than about $6M from another team. This seems unlikely to me.  This really isn't a choice since it's not something the Bulls can control.  Other teams, and Gordon see how the Bulls operate, so they'll think they've got a chance to get him.
2. Let one go.
3. Pay the luxury tax.

Not really a good set of options, is it?  

2. You've got very tepid endorsement of Gordon from what I'd call the Bulls "establishment", be it reporters, players and fans. You've got Sam Smith, saying "Hello Thabo, Goodbye Gordon" and saying sort of funny stuff like this about Gordon on a new contract:

If the Bulls seem set at shooting guard and will go with Hinrich and Sefolosha or even Duhon for a time, can they afford that kind of contract for a sixth man?

I wonder what that qualifies Andres Nocioni as?  Sheesh.  But still, I think when you see thinking like this, quotes from The Beloved about how much easier it is to play next to Thabo ("I find playing with Thabo I play against my own position more," Hinrich said. "You look at scoring and being aggressive a lot differently. "It is a lot easier on me physically and easier for me to play against guys equal at my position. It's been a while since I've done it. Playing guys at my position, I can get my shot off so much easier at all times").  Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Kirk and Ben's long-term future together, is it?  

And then you've got the fans.  There are certain folks you run into message boards that, and this is making no value judgement on them, I look to as predictors of how the Bulls think. Everyone blows hot and cold on guys, don't get me wrong. But I think that for whatever reason the way they tend to blow hot and cold on guys tends to also be the way the organization blows hot and cold on guys.  And this type of fan is ice cold on Gordon, whether they'll openly admit it (to themselves or others) or just couch it in hypotheticals, scenarios, or slightly inflated fandom of other players (eg Thabo, who, while he's done "OK" as a starter IMO, is not a guy I want as my long-term starter at SG.  Hell, he still looks like more of a 3 to me).

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3. It's not like it's been a secret for a long time that I think we're in a "can't live with him, can't live without him" position with Gordon. It's very hard for us to win without him due to the things he can do (create his own shot, create opportunities for others by by virtue of creating his own shot), but it's hard to see us being a championship team with him as a centerpiece in the long run because of the things he can't do that well (most everything else down to remaining upright on his average drive).  He remains a young Jason Terry to me.

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I submit that to you to suggest two things.

1. Gordon's likely gone.
2. Because the Bulls are close to the luxury tax threshold (and have a history of being averse to it), there is an incentive for other teams to make even higher offers to Deng and Gordon. Again, it's sort of the Miami-Clippers situation. Even if we let Gordon walk when he gets a higher offer, there's the possibility this leads to some team offering Deng something like $12-$14M/yr when, if we'd been comfortably under the tax threshold, a team simply wouldn't bother trying to game us. While that might look acceptable, from a long run perspective it could be enormously damaging.  It would likely destroy the possibility we have much cap space in 2010 for example, or cost us the use of our MLE down the road.

It's still possible to do something, but the hour is getting late (what, 2 weeks till the trade deadline?) to have much control over what happens What are the options?  I posted some options on my blog, but this is getting really long for a comment, so I'll just summarize them here:

1. If you really want to keep Gordon, you have to move Noc for expiring contracts, and do it yesterday
2. If you really want to avoid the incentive another team has to make us pay every penny possible for Deng, or just control what you get back for Gordon, you need trade him now.  I've mentioned Rudy Fernandez several times.
3. If you don't get something done by the deadline, IMO the options (sign and trade, letting him walk, paying the tax) start to get pretty ugly.

For once I agree with Sam's opinion.

Then theres ben gordon, who has the ability to be clutch and is by far the best scorer on the team, even with falling down, but that doesnt excuse falling down. In my oppinion gordons defensivel fallouts, his height, and his inability to remain on his feet really pull him down from being a starter.

Both players are good enough to be the third guard option, but i dont think either one is good enough to be a starter. Thabo might make things easier for kirk, but kirk isnt the greatest scorer. Gordon might take up the scoring load, but his defensive inabilities shift the responsibilities to kirk. Take kirk out and put thabo and gordon in and you have a backcourt thats bound to be turnover prone. Throw duhon in the mix with either thabo or gordon and you have an even shorter backcourt, or an offensively challenged backcourt. Yea...its complicated.

I think this team, if seriously wants to make a good run, needs a better guard. Someone like a brandon Roy would have been perfect (who really knew he was gonna be so good), he has the ability score, is mentally strong enough for the pressures of close games, and is tall! But that ship has sailed. A low post presence would definetly be nice, but it seems we are getting closer to having answers in the paint. Sure A. Gray isnt spectacular, but he can be effective if coupled with energy mongruls T. Thomas, or Joakim Noah, those two by the way have the potential to be offensive and defensive nightmares themselves.

I think having another guard, nay...a better guard than what we have now is really what this team needs. The guards we have now, are all suited to be sixth mans, we need a guard who has length, poise, and a good scorer (basically a taller version of gordon would be nice, or a better offensive player than thabo). If boylan wants he can alternate from starting thabo and gordon for the rest of the year, but its gonna get tired quick.