How much will Skiles play Chris Duhon and Joe Smith?  This question troubles me more than any question surrounding the Bulls.  I want to believe that Skiles will never start Duhon over Gordon again.  I want to believe that Skiles will stop playing Duhon and Hinrich together.  I want to believe Skiles will play Thomas, Nocioni, and Noah over Smith.  I want to believe Skiles can see the forest for the trees because I appreciate so many other aspects of his coaching.  But based on past experience, I'm preparing myself for disappointment when it comes to Duhon and Smith.  

The Chris Duhon issue has been well documented here, but let me clarify a few issues.  Duhon is a productive player and there are even a handful of teams that would clearly benefit from Duhon as their starting PG (Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets, and Pacers for example).  And a convincing argument could be made that Duhon was even more productive than Gordon over their first two seasons. Thabo will need to play a lot better to match Duhon's production simply on an individual level, but I don't believe Thabo has to match Duhon's productivity in order to justify replacing him.  Duhon and Gordon have played well together because their roles mesh well.  If Duhon is going to be played, he should only be paired with Gordon.  The Duhon/Hinrich backcourt has produced some of the least effective Bulls lineups over the last two seasons.  The skills sets of Duhon and Kirk just don't mesh well.  Hinrich is capable of playing SG, but he's much more effective at PG.  Playing Duhon with Hinrich makes Hinrich less productive, diminishing Duhon's own value.   There's no reason for Hinrich to play over a 1/3 of his minutes at SG anymore.  The negative impact on Hinrich's productivity is simply too strong to justify playing Duhon over Thabo even last year when Thabo struggled so much offensively.  Ideally, I'd like to see Duhon reduced to the fourth guard playing only as needed.  I believe Gordon's ability to play PG has improved enough that there's no real need for Duhon to play with Gordon either.  But, I'd at least be satisfied if the Duhon/Hinrich backcourt ends and Hinrich hardly ever plays SG on offense.  I believe that scenario would guarantee a career year for Hinrich, and we'd be able to get a better understanding of where he ranks among the best PGs.  

Joe Smith should be a slight improvement over P.J. Brown (The most similar player to Joe Smith at age according to Hollinger actually is P.J. Brown).  Just comparing Smith to Brown and Malik Allen makes Smith look like a positive addition.  Smith is still athletic enough to finish inside in the paint (59.6 inside FG%) unlike Brown and Allen who both shot under 50% inside the paint (40.3% and 48.1% respectively).   Smith is also a better rebounder than either Brown or Allen.  He also fits the defensive system better than Brown or Allen. with his elite ability to draw charges/flop.  He drew 43 charges in only 1503 minutes giving the Bulls four players that drew 40+ charges in 06/07.  He's good enough defensively that he could really benefit from playing with elite defenders for the first time in his career.  However, getting caught up in that slight improvement would be a mistake.  Tyrus Thomas and Andres Nocioni are both more productive players than Joe Smith at this point and should play almost all of the minutes at PF.  Thomas based simply on his ability to jump is more productive than the majority of power forwards at this point.  Nocioni is more productive both offensively and defensively than Smith.  Unless he manages to recapture the level he played at several seasons ago, he won't deserve to play ahead of those two.  It may be possible, but I believe it's unlikely.  Hollinger's projected PER predicted Smith's decline in productivity last year so the drop off wasn't unexpected (14.16 projected PER/13.95 actual). Projected PER simiarly predicted P.J. Brown's decline accurately last year including Brown's huge 6% drop in FG%. Hollinger's model appears to have a good handle on this type of player. So I wouldn't expect alot of Smith.  And even if he does recapture his youth, Tyrus and Nocioni likely still could be the more productive players.  Joe Smith could play center some.  But, allowing Noah to develop by playing the 10-15 minutes when Wallace is on the bench seems like an ideal situation, and a more attractive option.  If Noah just plays as well as Tyrus did last year then he'll likely be a more productive player than Smith and deserve the minutes.  From public comments, Smith seems to believe that he'll play a major role to the point that he'll need to dust off his supposed long lost post game.  The only reason Joe Smith should be playing more than 10 min/g is an injury or a career year.  Joe Smith is a nice insurance policy against injury for the next year or two, but should be nothing more than that.

Tyrus, Thabo, and Noah are essentially a second core to that of Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng.  They're the key to whether the Bulls go from very good to championship contender.  If they develop in the same way that Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng have then it won't really matter if any of that six becomes a superstar.  If Skiles uses Duhon and Smith to hold back their development, it will be a huge mistake, both for this season and the long term.  But, it's one that I fear Skiles and the vast majority of NBA coaches are inclined to make.  I got the impression from public comments that Paxson began to get frustrated with Skiles not playing Tyrus and Thabo enough, and playing Duhon too much.  Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part, but I've always been pretty confident that Paxson sees and understands the big picture.  Having Duhon and Smith on this team makes sense as protection against injury. They both have more value to the Bulls than to other teams because they fit the system and at this point the only thing of any real value to the Bulls is an all-star level post scorer, which is something neither Duhon or Smith can bring in a trade.  I believe that's the big picture Paxson sees, but I'm not sure if Skiles can see the same big picture.  I don't know how this will play out, but I'm bracing myself for a lot of Duhon and Smith and preparing for another season of yelling at Skiles through the TV to play the kids.