Season Review Part IX: Thabo Sefolosha

Thabo Sefololosha had an awful season on offense.  His 8.46 PER was the 14th worst in the NBA among players that played 800 min.  His PW% was a .176 , in large part due to an Offensive Rating that was 4th worst just behind Chicago's own Antoine Walker.  He shot 42.6% from the field and 51.1% from the FT line.  His Turnover Rate was also high at 15.2.

So why have most of us been calling for more playing time for Thabo, rather than calling him a bust?  FG%, FT%, and Turnover rate are all stats that tend to improve with increased playing time and experience, especially in the second year.  Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, and Noc all did this.  I can envision a huge jump in PER from year 1 to 2 just like Noc had. Why? Because Thabo's biggest offensive problem seemed to be missing alot of layups along with struggling with his jumper.  Noc had similar problems as a rookie.  The one positive is that at 35.7%, he shot 3s well enough that he's going to be able to space the floor at guard.  If you look at his shooting zones, he shot over 50% from the corners and was 7/10 fromthe right wing, but went 0/16 from the middle and left wing.  Visually he looked much more comfortable shooting from the corners as well.  Bruce Bowen has proven that if you can defend and make 3's from the corners there's a place for you on a championship level team.  Although his shot chart for the season looks like a Kobe Bryant game.  So it's hard to draw any real conclusions.  His assist rate of 15.2 is also solid for a SG, but not anything that stands out.  He has the ability to be a creative passer, but right now turns the ball over too much with that creativity.  He also showed the skills I saw in summer league.  He dribbles well enough to bring the ball up against pressure and to get to the basket from the wing.  He's a decent shooter from mid-range when he's set.  He also shoots decent when he takes 1-2 dribbles to his left and then shoots from around the freethrow line.  He was also comfortable taking shots in the playoffs.  But, I over estimated how ready he was to play point.  At this point he's comfortable dribbling in space, in the open court and 1 on 1.  But he's not comfortable dribbling in the pick and roll, which he has to be able to do to intiate the offense.  That's less important now than when he was drafted because of Gordon improved ability to intiate the offense from the top of the floor.  

The one area where he played well was the one area that was his strength coming into the NBA.  He was described as the best defensive guard in the draft, and he lived up to that billing at least in flashes.  His Defensive Rating was a very solid 99, especially for a guard.  While his steals and blocks statistics weren't very prolific, he flashed potential in both areas with his quickness and length.  He also lived up to his reputation as a good rebounder, especially on the defensive end.  His 10.1 Rebound rate nearly matched Deng's (10.8).

I doubt any of this would be enough to convince a non-Bulls fan that Thabo will be a solid NBA player.  And in the abstract a shooting guard that can't shoot isn't highly valued.  But Thabo was drafted to specfically fit the Bulls needs.  In some ways he's alot like Duhon.  He's content to be a role player on offense, whose strengths are on defense.  But while Duhon's a terrible fit with Gordon and Hinrich, Thabo was drafted specifically because he's a good fit; an answer to an unique situation.  And because of that he's has more value to the Bulls than he does to other teams in a trade.  Thabo at least has a much better shot than Eddie Basden to be the M2GwcDaS.

This is the last individual player review.  Thankfully the days of needing to determine if the guys on injured reserve can play ball seem to be over.  Unless there is a great need to examine the Adrian Griffin effect.  I plan to write one last season review of the team as a whole.