Tiers for (drafting) fears

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 18, 2007 6:32 PM CDT in News Comment 53 comments

Chad Ford today with a good article, succinctly (if not particularly original) balancing the old 'talent vs. need' factors:

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, several teams who have been very successful in the draft employ what I call a "Tier System" of ranking players. Instead of getting an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, they group players, based on overall talent level, into tiers. Then, the team ranks the players inside each tier based on team need.

He then uses a speculative Bulls draft board as an example:

BULLS

Team needs: PF, C, SF

Tier 2
5. Corey Brewer
6. Jeff Green

Tier 3
1. Spencer Hawes
2. Joakim Noah
3. Julian Wright
4. Al Thornton

If the Bulls are drafting No. 9 (Tier 3 territory) and Corey Brewer is on the board (a Tier 2 player), they take him regardless of position. The rule is that you never take a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available. So if the Bulls had Spencer Hawes ranked No. 1 in Tier 3, they'd still take Brewer, even though center is a more pressing need.

That's pretty much how it should go. Of course, the very subjective portion of this is where players fit in 'tiers' for each team. For my selection in the SBNation mock draft both Hawes and Green were available, but I (using Chad's terms) had them in the same tier, so I took Hawes. If the Bulls believe that Green is that much better, then I won't bemoan the lack of the 'need' pick.

[Oh, and quick aside to the Kobe & KG discussions. Lets all assume for the sake of (non) argument that if one of these guys are acquired, the impending opt-out clauses in their contracts would be negotiated away as part of the deal. Naturally there will be no trade for a rent-a-star]

[Another aside: the SBNation mock draft is nearing the end of the first round.]

0 recs | Comment 53 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

the Yi people are going to

be unhappy about the exclusion of the 34 year old prospect.

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 18, 2007 6:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ah yes, the age old question

How old is he really?

But, hey, the tier approach is interesting. I'd like to see a chart from the year Gordon and Deng were picked. Was Iggy in the second tier and Lu and Ben in the first?

And Does Pax really do this?

by KT on Jun 18, 2007 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

that example was just using the Bulls as a hypothetical. If I were guessing, I would think the Bulls would do a tier ranking, along with a top prospect ranking, just to look at the information from as many angles as possibile. They probably have positional rankings as well. You have to really shuffle and reshuffle the possibilities to be able to pull off these draft night deals.

Draft pick rodeo -- Yi Hawes!

by preverbal on Jun 18, 2007 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

The assumption in Ford's Bulls example was that Yi would be gone.

Here's the top-12 according to Chad:

TIER 1
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant

Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Oden among GMs, but everyone agrees both players have superstar potential and are clearly the consensus top two in the draft.

TIER 2
Corey Brewer
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Brandan Wright

Note: One team expanded this tier to include all of Tier 3, essentially making Tier 2 the third through 12th picks, but most everyone else made a cut right before the players in Tier 3. I'd also note that there was near consensus that Horford is the third-best player in the draft.

TIER 3
Spencer Hawes
Joakim Noah
Al Thornton
Julian Wright

Note: Tier 3 represents the final four players in the top 12. Every team I spoke with had the same 12 players in the top 12. That's a pretty amazing consensus for this deep in the draft. It also shows the depth of the draft itself. Last year, Tiers 1, 2 and 3 consisted of a total of seven players.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 18, 2007 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm extremely excited about this draft.

While it (this off-season in general, too) won't necessarily determine the whole franchise, an extreme either way (a stud pick or a complete bust) certainly will.

The Bulls have some great pieces and the right player could put them "over the hump", a legit title contender for the next 5-7 years.

But keeping the pick and it turning into a bust could keep them in that second "tier" of teams in the 5-10 range with not a great chance at significant improvement. Obviously, it won't be impossible, but a whole lot harder.

I know everyone knows this... I'm just slowly getting excited.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 18, 2007 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other than

Duhon I don't feel that any of Pax's picks have been a bust. I trust him to make the right pick on draft night.

Buckle your seatbelts kids. It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks.

by sue369 on Jun 18, 2007 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don't think Duhon was a bust.

2nd rounder.

Tim Duncan is a robot!

by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Jun 18, 2007 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As much as I'm anti-Duhon (38th pick)

It's narrow-minded to believe he was a bust. How many other 2nd rounders from that draft amounted to anything at all? How about the Bulls' earlier pick in the 2nd round, Jackson Vroman(31st pick)?

Here's the list of other guys from the '04 2nd round that have contributed in some manner.

Varejao (30th pick)
Ariza (43rd)

Maybe Royal Ivey at the 37th pick was the guy we really should have taken...

I love you Ben, you almost make me forget about...tacos.

by eddiew23 on Jun 18, 2007 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I agree with joejoe and eddie

Duhon is not a bust.

by SRQman on Jun 18, 2007 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Du,

did you catch Hollinger's chat today?

Justin (Wheaton): Is anyone off limits on the Bulls roster for large trades?

John Hollinger: You get the impression Luol Deng is, after the Gasol deal didn't go down this February. Everyone else is pretty much fair game.... especially if their last name ends in "uhon"

Sounds like something my kindergarten-aged niece would say - well, the "last name ends in 'uhon'" part. She's not so much into Bulls basketball yet.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Jun 18, 2007 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK,maybe

not a bust but I am disappointed in his priorities. His missing required team events when it's part of his job tells me he doesn't care. To me that is unacceptable.

Buckle your seatbelts kids. It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks.

by sue369 on Jun 19, 2007 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so I take that to mean

that you've never once overslept in your entire life? You've NEVER stayed out later than you should have and didn't feel the effects the next morning? The guy is 24 years old...who is expecting him to do everything perfectly?

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no one else on the team has that problem

Duhon also sucks at basketball, so I was happy with the DNPs.

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 19, 2007 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

most anytime it's reported

that someone missed practice because of "flu-like symptoms" you better believe it was because they were out partying the night before.

I think the only reason it's becoming a "problem" with Duhon is because it keeps getting reported on. You just might not hear about it with anyone else....that doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

I think he sucks like everybody else, I just don't think it's fair to point out his late nights as the problem though...he just sucks (lol)

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you think he's being singled out by the media?

sounds far-fetched.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 19, 2007 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe, maybe not

but I'd highly doubt that no other player on the team didn't miss a couple of practices because of partying

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh

Duhon was DNPeed during the season for it, and no one else was.

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 19, 2007 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Buckle your seatbelts kids. It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks.

by sue369 on Jun 19, 2007 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh

Skiles couldn't afford to DNP anybody else...of course he could with Duhon

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

then the playoffs

and the draft are fixed too.

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 19, 2007 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

strictly

talkin about the reg season dude

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who is expecting

him to do everything perfectly? His coaches maybe. I don't think they expect him to do everything perfectly but they at least expect him to show respect to them. On CTL one night they were talking about Du and they said he had been warned several times to lay off the partying and he didn't do that so Skiles has had enough and wants him gone. He may be 24 but he's a grown man. If you make 3 something million a year and your boss asks you to cool the partying during your work season that's not too much to ask.

Buckle your seatbelts kids. It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks.

by sue369 on Jun 19, 2007 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I knew the money subject would come up

Him making 3 mill is irrelevant...whether someone has a job that pays them 20 mill a year or 20 thousand a year...the point is, every once and awhile they're going to screw up...HOW they screw up is irrelevant also. I could care less if Duhon was out late partying or out late at Bible study.

Yes, he's had some bad moments lately, but I'm not going to crush the guy for that. Him being grown doesn't discount him from ever making a mistake.

Sure, you have to have order as a team and have your players respect you...but you can't coop them up and expect them not to slip up every once and awhile either. I'd cut them a little slack...Maybe that's why I'm over here typing and not coaching I guess :-)

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is Duhon is partying and

not getting any better at basketball. It's the latter that makes the former standout. If the difference between doing your job well and doing an average job while partying was millions of dollars. I hope you would cut the partying out. If Duhon had improved his shooting the way Hinrich, Deng, Gordon, and Nocioni all did, he'd be looking at MLE money after next season.

by Scotter on Jun 19, 2007 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How they screw up is relevant.

hahahhaha

Even an atheist such as myself can understand that late-night bible study is better than doing coke or getting in trouble for a DUI. I've never heard of bible studying physically hurting oneself or killing innocent little children.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 19, 2007 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention,

I have yet to meet someone who didn't manage to tear themselves away, put the bible down and turn in for the night at an early hour - and I have yet to meet someone who read themselves to the point of puking or a nasty hangover the next day.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Jun 19, 2007 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

you just totally missed the point...the point is, a screw up is a screw up, whether it's done one way or another

I wasn't comparing bible study to partying...the outcomes of those are obvious

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I get your point and disagree

When it comes to being late or not being able to perform at a job, a "screw up" that your boss disapproves of is significantly worse than one the boss sees as a valuable and worthwhile activity - and repeating the same screw up once you know your boss disapproves of it is asking for trouble.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Jun 19, 2007 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you just proved

that you DID NOT get my point...but it's ok.

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So if your point is not

"a screw up is a screw up," what is it? I'm just disagreeing with what you stated.

But your right, it's no big deal - I'm pretty sure we're legally guaranteed the right to have different opinions.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Jun 19, 2007 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course you

don't care if he is out late partying. You're not paying his salary. Those who are paying it do care about his partying. Whether you want to admit it or not his off the court behavior does affect his job. We aren't at practice every day and have no idea what the coaches see.

Buckle your seatbelts kids. It's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks.

by sue369 on Jun 19, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you just made my point

Duhon's inefficiencies this season can't ALL be pointed to him out partying...at some point you just have to say that he stinks.

by ScottieCartwright on Jun 19, 2007 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duhon

was a great second round pick. Yes everyone here wants to trade him, but who would you rather have as a backup point guard if it werent for the fact that the bulls backcourt is short. Jacque vaughn???? Mardy Collins? Marcus Banks??? only player I can think of is one of the young spanish PG's but other than that Duhon is up there with the best of backup point guards (espescially considering that some of those backup pg are expected to become starters while Duhon isnt).

by Sambossanova on Jun 18, 2007 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there are

plenty of backup point guards who played closer to league average efficiency last season, and the Bulls need a shooter more than a non-shooting passer. That said, Duhon is cheaper than a lot of the veteran backups. That's fine with all the extensions that have to be negotiated. Skiles would still have to try pretty hard to make a bigger mistake than playing Duhon so darn much.

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 19, 2007 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the 8 actual players that paxson has drafted

LaMarcus Aldridge
Rodney Carney
Ben Gordon
Jackson Vroman
Chris Duhon
Kirk Hinrich
Mario Austin
Matt Bonner

of these at worst duhon is 5th best; with 7th 8th out of the league

players bulls 'drafted'

deng
thabo
tyrus
Ben Gordon
Jackson Vroman
Chris Duhon
Kirk Hinrich
Mario Austin
Matt Bonner

7 of the 10 are in the league

Duhon is approaching his 4th year in the nba. That is far above the 2nd round average. In fact; Duhon is the only 2nd rounder paxson has drafted that has done anything for the bulls; and with the exception of matt bonner, the only one that has done anything for an nba team (and bonner is quesitonable)

has duhon been a savior for the franchrise? no...if you told pax that this is what he would get when he drafted duh, i think he woulda jumped at it.

Duhon has been a solid player, and while not spectacular has not been a team killer

of the players drafred after duhon; or FA signing...

Ariza
Pape Sow
Ha Seung Jin

are the only 3 to crack a team and the only 2 noticable FA signings were noch and haslem....

your honour; i rest my case

by milesgmsu on Jun 19, 2007 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whats avaiable.

I read this the other day and if what he has is true here we can narrow the options down to ten.

Corey Brewer
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Brandan Wright
Spencer Hawes
Joakim Noah
Al Thornton
Julian Wright

Unless we move into the top 2 those are the players that could be around when the Bulls pick. According to Ford every time had the same top 12. Therefore minus Durant and Oden there is the Bulls top ten. What we don't and can't know is how the Bulls have them tiered.

"If you're not going to compete, then I'll dominate you." MJ

by Rankdog on Jun 19, 2007 5:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty much...

...the most ingenious list ever! Thanks!!!

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 19, 2007 6:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha!

by Paxson Jackson on Jun 19, 2007 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figure it might look like this...

Tier 2:
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Branden Wright
Corey Brewer
Jeff Green
Mike Conley *

Tier 3:
Spencer Hawes
Joakim Noah
Julian Wright
Al Thornton

* Based on talent solely, I think he should be in the 2nd tier, but I just can't see us taking him even if he's there at #9, unless a trade is on the table.

by Ceasaleo on Jun 19, 2007 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scola rights on sbnation mock

I just noticed that the Kings traded their pick (10) to spurs for scola's rights, the 28, and 33.

http://www.indycornrows.com/main/2

Why didnt we do that on the simulated draft?

by Sambossanova on Jun 18, 2007 10:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think I said this at the time

but the deal was in place (somewhat...I think what I 'had' was a better deal actually) but it was the night of game4 and we ran out of time to make the deal.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 18, 2007 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Wasnt a blogger from the kings blogging site here recently, i wonder if thats where they got the idea from...in other words....THEY STOLE OUR IDEA>>>LITTERLY

im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Jun 19, 2007 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By the way

I was hoping we would pick hawes anyway, and am glad we did.

im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Jun 19, 2007 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm speaking for me alone

I'm in the minority but I badly want Jason Smith. And i called TZ a fool for trading the pick (even thought it's a mock draft and means squat) because he's probably really ambivalent about the pick. He's not real confident, and I dont blame him, about the direction of the franchise. There are alot of swirling questions around the team, some obvious some not, and it's making for some crazy making moments.

Michael Jordan is overrated...except for those 6 titles 4 MVP's DPY and other things like Bryon Russell's ankle...

by pookeyguru on Jun 19, 2007 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

a peek inside the war room

the Spurs guy was offering similar stuff to everybody in that draft range. He apparently really wanted Acie Law. Watching Jacque Vaughn too much will do that to anyone

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 19, 2007 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Bulls pick

Will come down to Yi, Jokequeen Noah, and Hawes. I say they take Jokequeen. Once he puts on NBA weight he could be a servicable banger in the low post. He can also hit his free throws and has a hideous side-spinning jumper that somehow goes in the basket. He is by far the most proven player out of the 3 and is ready to contribute now. I say Hawes will be a complete bust and will never average more than 6 points. Yi is the wild card because he could be 20-10 or 2-1, no one really knows. Jokequeen would have been #1 last year, so the Bulls won't let him slip and chose some random stiff is he's available.

by vlad001 on Jun 19, 2007 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He has a woman's hairstyle.

Above all, he is a champion and a unique talent. After Oden and Hortford he is the best big man available. I want to see that horrendous looking shot give the Bulls 2 points next year.

by vlad001 on Jun 19, 2007 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs