Core's Potential for Improvement
[From the Diaries. Lets not turn this into another mind-numbing argument over what makes a 'superstar'...the point is, for any offseason move to make much of an impact, these 3 guys have to get better as well. History shows they will, but by how much and how they fit is the more important question. Now that's something to argue (sorry, 'discuss') over. -Matt]
All of the recent debate over Kirk, Lu and BG's potential for improvement, not to mention over the term "superstar," piqued my curiosity as to what level of improvement other well-known players have experienced at a similar career stage as the core guys are at now. I do not in any way purport that this is a serious scientific study - just my quick perusal of stats found at http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/.
This is the average change in PER for eleven players at each position who have been in the league longer than Hinrich/Deng/Gordon from their season just completed to the one they are about to enter, so 4th-5th for point guards and 3rd-4th for SGs and SFs. No, PER is not perfect, but it is available and it controls for variations in minutes played. As far as selecting which players to look at, I took the top eleven guys that had been in the league long enough from a fantasy basketball preview list for last year - it was convenient. (Obviously this does not mean Hinrich/Deng/Gordon will not do better or worse than the average next year.)
PG - average PER increase of 2.927 from 4th to 5th year
SG - average PER increase of 1.091 from 3rd to 4th year
SF - average PER increase of .709 from 3rd to 4th year
PGs included, with individual increases from high to low: Nash (+6.1), Kidd (+6.1), Iverson (+4.0), B Davis (+3.8), A Miller (+3.7), Billups (+3.5), Parker (+2.8), Bibby (+2.7), Arenas (+2.5), Marbury (-1.0), Terry (-2.0)
SGs included, with individual increases from high to low: McGrady (+4.9), R Bell (+4.8), Bryant (+2.8), J Richardson (+2.2), Allen (+1.7), Wade (+1.3), Ginobili (+0.1), Pierce (0), J Johnson (-0.2), Redd (-1.1), Carter (-4.5)
SFs included, with individual increases from high to low: G Wallace (+3.5), Kirilenko (+1.8), Artest (+1.8), Marion (+1.5), R Lewis (+1.2), Butler (+1.2), Odom (+0.9), Stojakovic (+0.9), Anthony (+0.1), R Jefferson (-1.5), James (-3.6).
I didn't do any analysis for significance, but I thought the PG numbers were especially interesting - with the exceptions of Marbury and Terry, all of those guys had a significant jump in PER in the 5th year. This would definitely seem to support the idea that point guards make significant improvements at a later time in their careers, and possibly bodes well for Kirk (and consequently us!) next year.
(Just to be clear, I did not look at changes over other years, did not consider moves to other teams or changes in teammates or coaches or playing time, and did not take the time to look up injuries.)
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80 comments
Comments
Thats pretty cool
Of course the things you admitted to neglect, injuries, trades, previous year pers....that stuff is very important too, especially in evaluation of pers. If you could find out all that information (or if anyone else could, im too lazy myself) then you would have a more accurate representation (did i spell that right?).
Of course, we are looking at the top 11 guys in the positions, which means these guys are sort of special. Not that our guys arent, but wouldnt it be more realistic to look at the middle 11 guys. I could be wrong...anyway like i said, kick ass way of trying to predict the improvement of our core.
by piccolomair on May 25, 2007 3:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I just didn't have time
by wjb1492 on May 25, 2007 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PER of PG's for their 4th season in the League
Kidd 17.41
Hinrich 17.09
Davis 16.88
Parker 16.60
Billups 14.01
Nash 13.98
I know PER isn't the end all and be all of determining a players future, but Kirk seems to be above the curve compared to other PG's at the same point in their careers, So I see no reason why Kirk still won't improve for many years to come.
by Wade.Jones on May 25, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanx man
by piccolomair on May 25, 2007 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I apologize.
by tyger1147 on May 26, 2007 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks wjb.
by sue369 on May 25, 2007 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
mind-numbing for sure
Speaking of groupthink, I don't think wjb made a mistake by ignoring trades and such. Contract years, and "blossoming with another team" are probably less significant factors in player improvement than we realize.
by Paxson Jackson on May 25, 2007 9:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Groupthink
by preverbal on May 25, 2007 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not groupthink if I've looked at things...
Just because there's a majority opinion, doesn't make it wrong.
by tyger1147 on May 25, 2007 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
self-centered much?
A study was done on contract years in baseball (bigger sample size, better measurements of performance), and the conclusion was impending free agency doesn't matter much. I wasn't challenging a commonly held idea or opinion for the hell of it.
by Paxson Jackson on May 25, 2007 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very self-centered.
by tyger1147 on May 25, 2007 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Free Agency
"Numerous studies have refuted many of the game's most sacred old yarns. Clutch hitting? It's mostly a myth. Giving yourself up for the good of the team? Bad idea -- you're probably costing your team runs. But the notion that players perform better in contract years, knowing they're closing in on free agency and a stack of riches? Turns out that's true. A study in "Baseball Between the Numbers" found that on average, players do perform better in their final season before free agency. That's even after accounting for the fact that players often approach their walk year in their late-20s, when many are also at their peak."
I can't speak to the validity of the analysis, as I don't own the abovementioned book and rarely read books about sports that I watch on television. Nonetheless, it is an interesting claim, and the book in question was penned by BaseballProspectus authors, so I would reason that the analysis is fairly systematic and rigorous.
by jpx7 on May 26, 2007 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Zambrano disagrees
by Paxson Jackson on May 26, 2007 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly you don't value my opinion anymore...
As I said, I haven't read the reports, so this can all be thrown out if one so chooses.
OTOH, we can always point to an exception to any rule when human beings and relatively (compared to general human behavior) small sample sizes are measured.
Adrian Beltre is one--he "finally" fulfilled his potential in 2004, never really being close any year before or after.
Carlos Zambrano is the other--who has pitched as many pitches since 2002 since almost anyone (couldn't find the leader board).
by tyger1147 on May 26, 2007 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greater playing-time
Like I said, I am fairly disinclined to buy the book (and it is one of the few types of books not readily available in Hyde Park), but having read BP online for a few years, I would expect a fairly solid statistical approach.
by jpx7 on May 27, 2007 3:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Playing with an injury most likely means poor production, so I don't see how that makes a player look better statistically, unless you're looking at the wrong metrics.
by Paxson Jackson on May 27, 2007 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't necessarily mean poor production.
A strained hamstring is another example. It might be sore, and for a speed guy could hurt his SB's, but it doesn't have a lot to do with swinging a bad. Over a season he could lose some at-bats to not being able to run out grounders, doubles, etc. But coming back one week early? Maybe he loses one hit, maybe none.
by tyger1147 on May 27, 2007 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
by Paxson Jackson on May 27, 2007 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus, you're a dick.
And what speedy guy are you talking about? Grady Sizemore hurts his team, huh? Or how about Ryan Theriot? Does he hurt the team, too. Pro athletes are indistinguishable and have exact same skillsets. There can't be a pro athlete who is fast AND has a good OBP, is there? Not everyone is a 40-40. I forgot.
Wow, you are just an asshole, plain and simple.
by tyger1147 on May 27, 2007 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus blocked me on AIM
by Paxson Jackson on May 27, 2007 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
None of my business, but . . .
More broadly, as a regular reader and relatively frequent poster on this blog, it is amazing to me how dedicated you seem to be to denigrating other people's comments.
by preverbal on May 27, 2007 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last time I checked
by Paxson Jackson on May 28, 2007 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What other cliche's am I using?
Keep at it! PaxJax: Advocate for those who need to constantly put others down. Whoohoo!
by tyger1147 on May 28, 2007 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would you two
by sue369 on May 28, 2007 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
by sue369 on May 28, 2007 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything by "tyger1147"
by tyger1147 on May 28, 2007 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Enough baseball yack?
PaxJax: "You must stop talking about baseball here. This case is closed. But I'm going to talk about it some more, because I must constantly respond to everything. So there."
by tyger1147 on May 28, 2007 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
point was
by Paxson Jackson on May 28, 2007 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing that's amazing
by Paxson Jackson on May 28, 2007 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops
It's tough to keep your wittiness straight.
by Paxson Jackson on May 28, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused...
It's seems less like the idea behind the assumed improvement in a 3rd year WR in the NFL (something a group of people just about swear by), than someone positing some hope in Bulls fans.
I'm sorry, Pax Jax, but while your thoughts can be lucid, I wonder if you're just a Negative Nancy at heart. I think I'm gonna start calling Socrates since you challenge just about everything (which probably isn't a bad thing).
As for wjb's diary and research, the (pretty objective...yes, he was wise not to include player movement from team to team) numbers only excite -- in a sabrmetric kind of way -- this Bulls fan. I only hope that other 4th year SF's like Dorell Wright and Trevor Ariza don't overtake Luol.
by james@lifeinthecell on May 26, 2007 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
um
by Paxson Jackson on May 26, 2007 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it'd be interesting...
Daily did make a PER jump of nearly 3 between his 3rd and 4th year. There's a lot more analysis to be done to this, but I'm "working" so I don't have a ton of time (and I'm not good with stats anyway). But I think that would be another way to explore it.
(They're obviously not the same player, as Ben takes way more threes.)
by tyger1147 on May 25, 2007 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Top 11
Interesting post. Nice job, particularly since we have no playoff excitement left. On an off-topic note, is it just me or have the playoffs completely lost their appeal? On some level, I feel almost guilty, like I am a homer more than a basketball fan, but more fundamentally, the conference semi-finals were just brutal -- no more Phoenix, GSW, or Bulls, the three most fun teams to watch.
Now, we're left with JaBron Lames going one-on-one at the end of every game. FAN-tastic!
by preverbal on May 25, 2007 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You are correct, sir
Why oh why can't the NFL season start when the NBA season ends?
by Craig Hodges Explosion 3000 on May 25, 2007 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not
by sue369 on May 25, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love the Cubs
Plus, MLB is the only sport that I have absolutely zero interest in watching unless it's my team.
You're on the Bleed Cubbie Blue blog, aren't you?
by Craig Hodges Explosion 3000 on May 25, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I watched last night
by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on May 25, 2007 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Personally
by preverbal on May 25, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our guys would have put up a better shot than
I'm still in Bulls withdrawal. I hang onto everything NBA basketball until there is nothing left - - about August. Baseball doesn't seem to grab me. I look even look forward to the 2007 - 2008 schedule coming out.
I believe in the growth potential of our guys. I am hoping we can get someone down low in the draft who can impact the game. I really think you will see our guards truly shine with a impact low post presence.
by chgobr on May 25, 2007 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's Kurt?
by sue369 on May 25, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sue - my sincere apologies.
by chgobr on May 26, 2007 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew who
by sue369 on May 26, 2007 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis, wjb.
by NittanyBull on May 25, 2007 5:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Didn't have a spot for this
Sue you will be proud.

by SRQman on May 27, 2007 1:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Flabull
by sue369 on May 27, 2007 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have never seen him dunk
by SRQman on May 27, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew he
by sue369 on May 27, 2007 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miles gave me a youtube video of this
by NittanyBull on May 27, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow if you can find that video
by SRQman on May 27, 2007 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just looking for it right now
Stupid Youtube.
by NittanyBull on May 27, 2007 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lame youtube
by SRQman on May 27, 2007 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasnt the video
At any rate it's not a spectacular dunk, he runs the baseline goes up and drops it in, nothing with authority.
by piccolomair on May 27, 2007 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hello its Kirk Hinrich
by SRQman on May 27, 2007 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your right
Heres something if you want to see hinrich at his best (sort of), and what might become if collison joins the bulls
http://youtube.com/watch?v=6IroDbPpwlM
oh yea, hinrich does some dunking here too!!
by piccolomair on May 28, 2007 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun to watch
by chgobr on May 28, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me, too
by wjb1492 on May 28, 2007 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank God for the draft pick
by chgobr on May 28, 2007 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow I can't wait for schedule
by SRQman on May 28, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you guys
by sue369 on May 28, 2007 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
by SRQman on May 28, 2007 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need some real advice
"This is the voice of experience talking."
(Just a funny, not to be taken personal)
by NittanyBull on May 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I
http://www.flickr.com:80/photos/swanksalot/518842819/
by sue369 on May 30, 2007 7:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it looks like
by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 30, 2007 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think it's awesome
Can't find the quote though. :(
by wjb1492 on May 30, 2007 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely awesome!!
by sue369 on May 30, 2007 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm
by piccolomair on Jun 1, 2007 3:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe someday.
by sue369 on Jun 1, 2007 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft Pick
by blackmage71 on May 27, 2007 9:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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