Season Review Part I: Kirk Hinrich

by Scotter on May 25, 2007 4:39 PM CDT Comment 28 comments

With the season over it has been a time for reflection. I want to look back at the key players on the team. I am using two measures of over all player performance. PER is used often around here so I want to use that data set because most of us are familiar with it. But, I also want to use Dean Oliver's system of Player Wins and Player Losses to look back at this season. I used Oliver's tools to predict win totals for the Bulls and a few other teams and it proved fairly accurate. I now have a much better grasp of how his system works. I like Oliver's system because it's directly related to wins and losses, and takes defense into far greater account.

I'll start with Kirk Hinrich. His 17.0 PER, ranked him 10th among PGs playing 30 or more min/g. Hinrich faired better by Oliver's system with .808 PW% and 9.6 PW. Only Nash, Terry, and Kidd won more games, and only Nash and Terry had a better PW% among PGs. Hinrich raised his PW% from the .600 to an elite level. He's at worst a top ten pg. Hinrich's gains in PER and PW% were almost entirely due to improved shooting. He produced career highs in every shooting category. He drastically improved his inside effectiveness from 52.8% to 58.0%. Hollinger in his 05/06 season review of Hinrich focused on his failure to improve, particularly his continued low shooting %. Kirk's 06/07 season directly addressed those criticisms. Also in Kirk's favor is that he meets 2 of the 3 criteria Hollinger established for point guards that age well. He's tall for a PG at 6'3'' and he shoots well. Hinrich's play is unlikely to decline.

Will Kirk ever be the top pg in the league? No. But, he should consistently rank among the top 3 to 7 in the game. It is also important to remember that Hinrich is statistically a much better PG than SG. Or that difference could simply be the Duhon effect. Either way, Hinrich needs to spend more time at point. But, he also is unlikely to make a similar jump in shooting %. The jump from 40% to 44% is much easier than the jump from 44% to 48%. Further improvement will likely have to come from reductions in turnovers. Hinrich already is among the best point guards in the game and still has a decent chance to get a little better. But then again he probably can't start for a championship team. :-p (There you go Matt)

FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

0 recs | Comment 28 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Very interesting work

That increase in inside effectiveness is nice to see. Maybe this also will mean the end to the 'Hinrich Manuever'

But I don't get your last comment. If he's a top-10 pg isn't that enough? I really don't want to get into what makes the formula for a 'championship team' (here's the real defintion: they win a championship and then you retroactively assign roles to how) but it seems that there have been very good teams with average PGs, and Hinich is better than that.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 25, 2007 4:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The last sentence was sarcasm in

reference to a recent diary discussion. I tried searching for that discussion to link to it, but I didn't find it.

In alot of ways Hinrich perfectly fits the profile of a championship PG because he can be effective without the ball in his hands. He doesn't have to dominate the ball like Chris Paul does.

by Scotter on May 25, 2007 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yikes

by Paxson Jackson on May 25, 2007 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glad you clarified that

I confess, I missed the sarcasm as well.

Another point in favor of his aging well that I've seen mentioned more than once is his being a "below-the-rim" kind of player. Much as we all love to see Ty flying, and much as that is what makes the highlights, that physical ability can be one of the early things to go (as well as possibly being more prone to injury).

Who says it can't be done?

by wjb1492 on May 25, 2007 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I missed

the sarcasm too. I was shaking my head for a minute.

Who will come and who will go? Stay tuned!

by sue369 on May 25, 2007 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is why I use the oft-maligned smileys.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 25, 2007 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hinrich Manuever

Ahh, it hasnt been used as much this year, although i still like that move, i could see it no longer in existence since bulls basketball is now being defined by moving the ball around quickly and efficiently, and the hinrich manuever goes against that policy. Hopefully hinrich comes up with some kind of trademark layup, or becomes clutch, and we can call that the "hinrich manuever"

I mean it would be perfect, when the bulls' shots are choking, and we need someone to give life to the bulls, get us over that hill, we look to kirk to deliver "THE HINRICH MANUEVER"!!!!!!!!!!

excellent, now its up to kirk to start doing such a thing, or maybe he will just do the initial hinrich manuever again.

im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on May 25, 2007 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ron Harper? Derek Fisher?

Kirk's better than most of the Pgs that have won, going back to Magic Johnson, IMHO

Like a proud papa...

by cubbybear on May 25, 2007 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ron harper is a weird case

true he was PG, but more often than not Pipp or Jordan brought the ball up, and harper was a defensive guy

in terms of PGs, i throw out these names

Tony Parker
Isiah Thomas
Bilupps

clearly magic is better than all 3 combined, but i would take thomas clearly over kirk, and bilupps and parker when they won it (though i beleive kirk could end up better than both)

by milesgmsu on May 28, 2007 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Championship PG

Disregarding the sarcasm, there's been much debate here about the necessity of a superstar or what is truly the level of a 'championship' player. To me, the real question is do they have a reliable scorer? A guy that they can turn the ball to and get a decent percentage from?
It doesn't have to be a big man in the post, although there are obvious benefits to that - the 90s Bulls dominated with Cartwright and Longley at center. Those Bulls had reliable scoring weapons in Jordan and Pippen, guys who could consistently create and finish on their own.
Now, the Bulls of the 2000s don't need to match the 90s. That'd be unfair, being that nobody else can do that. But the Pistons can go to Prince, Billups and Wallace to score on their own consistently. The Heat can pound to Shaq, or rely on Wade. The Jazz have Boozer in post, and Williams-Boozer on the screen-roll. Cleveland has LeBron. SA has Duncan in the post and screen-roll.

Without boring you (maybe I already have), the good NBA teams have clear, set plays/players to turn to for a decent percentage. Right now, the Bulls do not. Hinrich on the screen-roll, Gordon creating, Deng on off-the-ball picks cutting to the basket are all plays that have paid off for the Bulls at times, but have also proven to be streaky. Plus, opponents have found ways to counter them. Unless Chicago can find a set play that works - be it through player development or acquisition - we will continue to have a problem offensively. Hinrich is a championship PG, but I'm not sure he can be THE guy on a championship team. Doesn't mean he's worthless, doesn't mean he won't lead the Bulls to a championship. Just means he still needs more help.

by IrishGush on May 25, 2007 5:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anyone expects

Hinrich to be "the guy" if we win a championship. My poorly set up sacarsm has invited what I meant to scare off.

by Scotter on May 25, 2007 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

now you know what my "yikes" was for

by Paxson Jackson on May 25, 2007 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you could always add a :-p

by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 25, 2007 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice point

But i think the bulls are trying to get to a point where they dont need a go to guy, but an entire team that should be feared. Much like detroit.

Using detroit as an example, i dont think tayshaun prince can just score at will, and though rip hamilton is hyped by the media, i dont think he can score at will either. Chauncy is a great player but again, he can just have his way with the defense.

I think hinrich and chauncy are very similar, without either of them, thier respected teams suffer when they arent on the court, even if they are not scoring. They cause the offense and defense to flow properly. Usually.

I think what detroit has that the bulls dont is that low post guy, they have rasheed wallace, who is a big brute in the post and can hit a jumper. They even have webber, and despite how bad he is, he is there, and can score when he gets the ball down low.

I think, we are trying to be like detroit in many ways, however where they are the "bad boys" of the nba, paxson wants the bulls to be the "good guys" of the nba. No outgoing attitudes, no over confidence, no egos, strictly pro ball players who enjoy the game, and will give it there all to win.

This is also why i love this team, that character is definetly a huge positive. Its a break from the, allen iversons, and kobe bryants, and the zach randolfs of the nba world. Yes this is no longer a team with a michael jordan, and hopefully we wont need a savior (who will later be criticized for being a ball hog) to save us, we need good ol' fashion, five man, team ball.

im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on May 25, 2007 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

half amazing post

two points: pistons suffer not so much because bilupps is off, but because flip murray comes on.....

only reason webber scores is because the refs give him 4-6 steps before they call traveling

and as much as it pains me to say it; rip hamilton can get pretty much any shot he wants...its just a matter if hes hitting

but after three nitpicky points, i couldnt agree with you more about good guys vs bad boys. I never had the eureka moment that allowed me to verbalize it, but now i realize it. The pistons aren't so much bad boys, as they are arrogant assholes....coasting through the regular season, first three quarters, large egos, and lots of t's*. So while I agree, and it always disgusts me to do this, that we play like the pistons, we dont act like them. well done

*side note: Rasheed may be the most t'd player in the game, but he is also the least T'd player in the game; the refs let him get away with soo much crap

by milesgmsu on May 28, 2007 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Kirk Hinrich isn't a True Yankee.

by Paxson Jackson on May 25, 2007 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I fear that

next season could be a rough one for Kirk if he does all the playing that he is planning on doing this summer.

You could tell he was tired much of this season. If he starts in two weeks with the summer league in KC, gets married the first part of July and then reports to Team USA the end of July and makes the team he will be playing til the end of August. There's not alot of time to let your body recover. Of course he may not make Team USA this year too.

Who will come and who will go? Stay tuned!

by sue369 on May 25, 2007 7:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

if I owned a team

I'd be a jerk and bar all my players from competing internationally. Like Mark Cuban (who coincidentally IS a jerk)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 25, 2007 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should say

like Mark Cuban *wishes the NBA did. He hasn't actually barred his players.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on May 25, 2007 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kurt did appear tired. this season.

You need a break to get your body repaired and re-energized. Noc basically lost the season because of playing during the summer. Gasol cost Memphis dearly by doing the same.

Luck clearly plays a big role in a team becoming a championship contender. Piccolomair makes great points regarding developing a feared team verses around an individual. We didn't win the lottery which makes this approach more appealing and a legitimate route to being a contender. My fear is we make some "blockbuster" trade that gives up Gordon or Kurt. I can't envision giving up Luol. Breaking this team up risks going back to the lottery(without the Knick pick). Patience - Deng, Gordon and even Kurt can still significantly improve. Then there is TT and Thabo.

The one player I question is Ben Wallace. He is a liability on offense and seems to be disinterested some games. I also worry about his back. Is this the beginning of him breaking down physically? I agree we would have wasted our money getting Nazr or Pryzbilla, but I question Wallace's value to a team that probably won't be a legit contender for 2 - 3 years.

by chgobr on May 26, 2007 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kirk not Kurt - - my apologies again to Sue

by chgobr on May 26, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ben wallace

made this team immensly better; had the same impact he did as in detroti (if not larger), and his ocntract gets easier to swallow as the years tick off

finally; this team is a ocntender now; big ben makes us; without him we're another middling team. Finally, taking him away from det theoretically hurt them (I'm still going to stick to that assertation - look beyond the stats...the pistons have to play a much slower game to make up for the lost defensive intensity and wiht that they lose much of the prowess of their offensive talents)

by milesgmsu on May 28, 2007 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's because he can't

I'm sure he would like to (and I don't blame him), but the NBA doesn't let teams bar their players from international competition.

by Big D on May 26, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone noticed

that for defensive player of the year, Kirk had the highest point total among guards?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/awards_2007.html

by Wade.Jones on May 25, 2007 11:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Weird vote totals

Battier was 5th in vote totals for DPOY, but he doesn't even make second team all-defense. Also in D all-teams, Ben Wallace garnered more 1st-place votes than Camby, and almost got into the 1st team if not for Camby receiving more second place votes. Weird stuff

Rasheed Wallace likes to comment about guys' butts. -"Them butt holes got tighter and TIGHTER."

by NittanyBull on May 26, 2007 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs