Why 38 won't be Luol Deng's career high for long

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 27, 2007 7:05 PM CDT in News Comment 22 comments

I've briefly mentioned this in comments before, but after Luol's career-high of 38 led the Bulls to victory last night I feel the need to reiterate how odd his offensive game is.

He got those 38 points on 18 field goals, with only 2 of those points coming on free throws and zero 3-point attempts. Deng hasn't shot many threes all season, and he doesn't get to the line that much, but on his career-high night you'd think a few more of those 'extra' points would be a part of the total. But if you're shooting over 42% on jump shots alone, these nights can happen.

Another fascinating part of Luol's scoring is that the Bulls rarely run plays for him. He gets opportunities in transition (especially for a pull-up jump shot), and is great making cuts off the ball, but you rarely see screens being set to free him, nor isolation plays. Part of that is the Bulls style of play, but it's also because Deng still has some developing to do.

And that's not necessarily a critique, it's more of a giddy projection. There was one play last night where Dan Dickau was (somehow) on him, and Luol quickly went into the post, turned, and scored. While Deng's range will increase as he spends more time in the league, his post-up game can be what would make him even more special. With this holy-grail-esque search for a guy who can score on the block, Deng has great size for a 3 (and if he fills out he could eventually play some 4), is smart, and seems to finish well with each hand. Why not him?

Developing a back-to-basket game can make Luol the type of go-to scorer that the Bulls can rely on, either to bail them out of poorly-run possessions, or to specifically run plays for. While it's great that Deng can fire mid-range jumpshots with tremendous accuracy, there are times when Gordon or Hinrich are off the court (or off their game) and the team needs Luol to create shots for the team. He's not quite quick enough (and definitely has ballhandling problems) to take opposing 3s off the dribble reliably, but a post-up game would be a great complement to his unbelievable shooting.

He's turning 22 next month, and the trade deadline talk from Paxson indicated how hard a worker Luol Deng is. It's going to be fun to watch the progress, especially when the unpolished version can shoot 18-25.

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Tip of the iceberg

His game is really coming along. Normally I'd say that anybody who takes a lot of 20 ft jumpshots is killing the team, but he is such a good shooter it isn't a bad shot for him.

by bullshooter on Mar 27, 2007 7:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The guy just doesn't miss.

He's 1st in FG% for the Bulls, rounds out the Top 15 in the league, and is 2nd among small forwards, save Ruben Patterson who has taken 366 less FGA than him.

Many people like to ponder how much of a machine he'll be once he garners a post presence, or a 3-point game. Hell, I wouldn't be all that down in the dumps if either of those two don't come along for him, and he just continues to perfect the mid-range jumper. He's a machine already.

HOT DENG!!

by NittanyBull on Mar 27, 2007 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

correction*

now he's first among SFs

HOT DENG!!

by NittanyBull on Mar 27, 2007 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eighty-two 3's next year???

Someone obviously said something to Deng at the beginning of this year. His rookie year he shot 117 and last year 78; both years he was just over 26% 3pt FG%. This year he's only taken four 3's. I would love, and could see, him take at least one per game last year with a percentage around 33%. He's taken what seems (stats can bear this out) like a lot of shots just inside the line.

Anyway, that won't do much for his scoring output directly, but I would assume it opens everything up a little. A little bit quicker and one or two solid post moves (not stretches for someone not even 22), he definitely becomes "the man" for the Bulls offensively.

That said, since I have no evaluative talent, how is he on defense?

by tyger1147 on Mar 27, 2007 9:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Deng's defense

From what I see (and of course, read/hear from smarter people than me), Deng's not a lockdown defender since he's not that athletic for a SF, but he works hard enough to be pretty good, and he's a smart team defender (which is probably more important)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 27, 2007 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

More of a "smart" defender than a great defender, he will sometimes get beat off the dribble. But he's definitely improved, and the long arms help.

He's also good at funneling a dribbler towards help, rather than letting a dribbler get past him to the open side. That's the kind of thing that won't win you Defensive Player of the Year or anything, but will keep your opponents' FG% down and let the center get blocks and alter shots. little things ...

by Bayern Munich on Mar 28, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's willing to defend and work at it,

which is a great place to start. He doesn't play with alot of knee bend, which limits his lateral quickness so he's never going to be a lockdown defender on the perimeter. Where he has impressed on defense has been defending the post, which makes sense because he was never a perimeter defender until he got to the NBA. He fights for position, challenges shots, but doesn't foul.

by Scotter on Mar 28, 2007 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

K.C. Johnson moonlights as Matt

K.C. just put up a Yay! Luol! article eerily similar to this post.

He's evidently found the magic remote control that all good players use to slow the game down:

"I think before when I was out there, I was rushing myself a lot," Deng said. "The game has slowed down. I see who's guarding me. When [the Blazers] were showing the different defenses, it didn't really bother me. I just tried to stay with what I've been doing and take the shots I've been taking all year.

"My shot has improved a lot from last season. I try to be as consistent as I can."

by paxson43 on Mar 27, 2007 11:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing

I don't want to be TOO nitpicky, but I think that stat is saying that 60% of Luol's shots are jumpers which he hits at an eFG of 42.4% (I assume since he never takes 3's the eFG doesn't change his actual shooting percentage much). I think his high field goal percentage comes from the fact that he shoots 40% of his shots in close at a clip of 66.5%. This makes me wonder why he doesn't get to the free throw line more often. Maybe he gets too open on his slashes and guys don't have time to hack him . . . or maybe the refs are bastards. Both good.

by Petor on Mar 28, 2007 9:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that's not nitpicky

pretty big error :)

I'll correct it.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 28, 2007 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deng's hotzones

He has nice numbers from the top of the key (.489), and to the right, inside the arc (.562). The mid to long range stuff overall isn't great, but he certainly has high percentage spots.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 28, 2007 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good idea to correct...

Since this post earned a link on TrueHoop's Wednesday Bullets.

by paxson43 on Mar 28, 2007 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Luol will never be a #1 go to guy

My enduring image is Luol awkward dribbling, trying to break down his defender of the bounce, losing the ball and stumbling as he turns it over. Yes, he has a great mid range jump shot, but can he create his own shot, break down defenders off the dribble and get to the FT line? If he can, show me. If he can't he has a ceiling on his stardom. How many superstars in the league can't create their own shot, break down defenders off the dribble and get to the FT line?
He's a great secondary option on a title contending team, but not the go- to star player.(see the last second awkward one handler to lose the Memphis game) He floats in late game situations, any one who calls him clutch hasn't seen him play.
I would sell high on Luol in a deal for KG. CAn the Bulls win a title with Kirk, Ben, Tyrus, KG, and Ben Wallace? Of course they can, and KG would be the missing piece for this team. Kind of like what Sheed brought to Detroit, but without the attitude and the headhaches. Why do you care what becomes of Luol, if you win a title?
-You can even send Luol a thank you note to be polite.

by Qtip15 on Mar 29, 2007 6:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Despite my burgeoning man-crush on Luol, I think you raise a good point here. Nobody on this team is untouchable if the Bulls can get a legitimate star in return and field a roster with a shot at a title or two.

That said, Luol is a wonderful piece to have and I don't think it's necessary for him to become a go-to star (obviously assuming that with hard work and more experience he cannot overcome the shortcomings you point out). If he does become one, all the better. It wouldn't make sense to get rid of Luol just because he may never be a superstar (you don't need five All-Stars to win the title).

Bottom line: Even Luol is not off-limits but it'd take an exceptional offer to consider dealing him.

by paxson43 on Mar 29, 2007 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posed the question to Sam

Me:

Sam,
What are your thoughts on Luol's ceiling? He appears to have limited ball handling skills and hasn't delivered in late game situations (likely because Gordon/Hinrich fill this role). Can he be a go-to guy? To what extent can hard work compensate for raw talent?
Thanks!

Sam:

he can be that player more, but you go to your best in that role and it's gordon

Let's leave it at this (consistent with the original theme of this post): Luol has a very bright future ahead of him. I'll enjoy watching it all unfold.

by paxson43 on Mar 30, 2007 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's 21

I'd at least wait until after this summer when he plans to work on his post game.

I know it might not mean much, but his season last year has the following similarity scores for other 20 year olds' seasons(from Basketball Reference):

Joe Smith, Mike Miller, Aleksandar Pavlovic(WTF?), Antoine Walker and Josh Smith. Sounds bad, huh?

There is more than a silver lining here:
The other ones are Joe Johnson, Tracy McGrady, Kevin Garnett, and Chris Bosh

Arguably four of the best scorers in the NBA. All score more than Ben Gordon. I think we should realize again just how rare it is that a team has maybe it's best player be college-senior age.

Deng, he's good!!!!!!!!!

by cubbybear on Mar 29, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even more

He's already the #8 scoring SF in the league:

NBA Scoring Leaders
RNK     NAME     GP     MPG     PTS    FGM-FGA    FG%    3PM-3PA3P%    FTM-FTA    FT%
1    C. Anthony, DEN    54    38.0    29.0    10.9-22.9    .475    0.5-2.2    .229    6.7-8.4    .800
2    LeBron James, CLE    69    41.0    27.3    9.9-20.8    .476    1.3-4.1    .329    6.1-8.9    .691
3    Michael Redd, MIL    50    39.0    27.0    9.1-19.4    .467    2.1-5.7    .377    6.7-8.0    .838
4    Vince Carter, NJN    71    38.1    24.8    8.7-19.3    .452    1.8-5.2    .344    5.5-7.0    .793
5    Tracy McGrady, HOU    63    35.7    24.3    8.9-20.7    .432    1.8-5.5    .330    4.7-6.7    .698
6    Josh Howard, DAL    61    35.8    19.1    7.2-15.7    .461    1.3-3.5    .372    3.4-4.1    .817
7    Caron Butler, WAS    61    39.5    19.1    7.2-15.5    .463    0.3-1.2    .254    4.4-5.1    .871
8    Luol Deng, CHI    72    37.7    18.9    7.8-14.8    .523    0.0-0.1    .250    3.4-4.3    .780

Deng, he's good!!!!!!!!!

by cubbybear on Mar 29, 2007 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hold on to Deng

Great post Matt. If Deng is traded for KG, we have a good chance of say 1 maybe 2 titles. I'd rather hold onto Deng in an attempt of a 2nd dynasty rather than loading up for 1 shot maybe 2 at the title.

Why trade away a young polished player that is only going to get better? I am excited to watch him play and grow as a player. The post game will come -probably this summer. You never know, he might even grow more this summer again. He is just so young; I would hate to see him go.

by Jesse07 on Mar 29, 2007 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus (and I should repeat this more often)

Garnett can and has expressed a willingness to opt-out after next season. Why trade anyone for a guy who can be signed for cheap later on. A Deng-Thomas-Wallace frontline could be really good.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 29, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

holy cow

We agree.

by Jesse07 on Mar 29, 2007 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

too.

Note to Ben Gordon: Please stop committing stupid offensive fouls.

by sue369 on Mar 29, 2007 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luol follow up

Right, you don't need a team of five all stars, but you sure a hell better have a diversified offense that can score in many ways. Not just a jumo shooting team that can't get the FT line or get easy buckets in the half court. My point is that Pax should consider the notion if if can get the missing piece, KG. If you think KG has too many miles, you can trade for JO
Being a GM is like investing money, you don't want all you assets in one basket. This team is all perimiter jump shooters with a nice pogo-stick in Ty Thomas. Why not diversify and add a new dimension. It's not like this team won't survive with a Luol Deng. He is like Josh Howard, a secondary option on a title team.

by Qtip15 on Mar 29, 2007 12:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs