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Garnett wanderlust: chapter 700

This is in collaboration(basically we like to tell eachother how awesome our blogs are.) with NBA blog giants CelticsBlog and FB&G, and our respective readers (that includes you), to try and swindle the Timberwolves one last time. I'll offer up my thoughts and then I ask you then to supplement my ideas (or trash mine and have your own) by coming up with what you would offer for Garnett, with only the realms of plausibility(both talent and cap-wise) to guide you. This turns out to be pretty complicated given the Bulls current situation, and you have to make some assumptions...so I'll be lenient with the cap shenanigans. It's the curse of Pax's fiscal responsibility!

Go through the jump to the other side for the rest.

Star-divide

The Bulls were in a much better position to trade for Kevin Garnett over this past trading deadline, but unfortunately Minnesota decided to hold on to him. With a lot of expiring contracts (most noticeably P.J. Brown's $8m) coming off the books, the Bulls will have a difficult time coming up with enough salary to get within the range that can be matched with Garnett's $22m in a trade.

The problem (if you could call it that), is that the Bulls best players are still on their rookie contracts. The only two high-salaried players signed for next season are Ben Wallace and Kirk Hinrich. This may mean that they will be actually under the cap going into the offseason, but not significantly so.

The Bulls have 2 young players with expiring contracts, Chris Duhon and Viktor Khryapa, that could be worthwhile to Minnesota either for salary or talent, depending on how they'd fit in over that year. One of the major assets the Bulls could give up in a Garnett trade is Tyrus Thomas. Tyrus has incredible athleticism and is already a fine shotblocker, and could be a piece the new-look Timberwolves would want to build around. This year's pick from the Knicks is likely expendable, but doesn't carry any salary for trading purposes. (feel free to verify or disprove that, btw. If they can trade the pick after draft night that's likely around $2m)

One way to add salary is to include restricted free agent Andres Nocioni as a sign-and-trade. Nocioni has value and is still young (27) so Minnesota may be interested in trading for his long-term deal. But if they're not Nocioni will likely be able to get a long-term deal with another team.

Beyond that is where the tough decisions lie.  The thing I think the Bulls need to be careful of is giving up too much and creating another hole and still being one player away even after getting Garnett. This has to be the move that gets the Bulls a championship. So including Kirk Hinrich (and his $11m contract) would be enough for a Garnett deal, but I really can't see the Bulls trading him with no in-house replacement, (and I'm including the possibility of Duhon not being traded, he's not an adequate starting point guard) and I don't think the Wolves sending back James, Hudson, or Jaric would help matters either. They also would likely hold on to Ben Gordon, as they'll need his scoring especially in late-game situations when Garnett is passing up instead of taking the last shot.

That leaves Luol Deng. We've all read that the Bulls refused to include Deng in the Gasol trade talks, but Garnett is a step above in performance and would immediately fit in with what the Bulls do already (defender, hard worker,  etc). Would they include Deng in a trade? I think that may be what they would need to do, although Minnesota could be desperate to get something before Garnett opts out of his contract and may accept less.

So while some cap (and roster space) shenanigans may be in order to get this done, a package of Deng, Thomas, Nocioni (sign/trade), Duhon, Khryapa, and the '07 pick would be what the Bulls could potentially offer. They can use Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin to hold down the 3 position, as well as patch up the roster with their free agent cap exemptions.

But while it may work on paper, it's rare that a team can survive dealing away half of their active roster for one guy, even if it is Kevin Garnett. The major hurdle is that Garnett makes so much more than the current league maximum. I think going after someone in the $10-$15m salary range would make more sense, someone like Gasol or Zach Randolph. That would require less talent too. Or just continue to wait, either for Garnett to opt out or maybe even going after the class of '03 when their recently-signed extensions run out. Ben Wallace doesn't seem to be aging gracefully, but there's no reason to compound that (potential) big-money mistake by rushing into another one. Their current core is still very young and after next season should have fat contracts of their own that will make acquiring a max-level player much easier on me and the trade machine.

So have at it. Fix up this mockery of a deal and get the Bulls some bodies back besides Garnett...maybe getting a 3rd team involved. Or if you're willing to deal Hinrich or Gordon, let me know that as well. For reference, here is the Bulls future salary obligations, as well as future draft pick obligations.

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One guy I barely mention
is Thabo. I know we all like him but if he can be dealt instead of Deng then that'd be better.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 12, 2007 6:44 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The other way Thabo factors in
is as a possible starter next to Gordon if Hinrich gets traded to team with Foye.  Duhon and Gordon is awful, but Thabo and Gordon could work depending on how Thabo develops.  He probably worth more to the Bulls than Timberwolves because he was drafted to play next to Gordon in the first place.

by Scotter on Mar 12, 2007 8:03 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting comment
what makes you think he wasn't drafted to play next to Hinrich?  or did you mean he was drafted to play the 3 and push Deng to the 4?

by bullshooter on Mar 13, 2007 12:15 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the thing is...
The T-Wolves have Mccants (spelling? Oh, I don't care), Foye, and Davis. Gordon and Hinrich don't seem like players an awesome GM would pursue. Deng and Thomas would be a better fit in the Cities.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 13, 2007 12:38 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reason I would say he was drafted
to play next to Gordon more so than Hinrich is that the Bulls traded up to draft the big guard with the best ability to handle the point at times.  You could stick any big two next to Hinrich and be okay.  Gordon needs to play with a guard that can also intitiate the offense.  Paxson compared Thabo to Doug Christie.  A good defensive player that could bring the ball up and intitate the offense allowing Bibby to be more of a scorer.

by Scotter on Mar 13, 2007 2:14 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

but thabo
isnt chained by his wife

by milesgmsu on Mar 14, 2007 6:42 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait for the opt-out
Any deal would be a gift to the GREATEST GM IN ALL OF SPORTS at this point. Tyrus Thomas & Nocioni (if he resigns) will be a more than adequate combo at power forward next season.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 12, 2007 6:46 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good job PaxJax
Your stunning insight ended the discussion before it even began.

(Seriously, have you ever seen a thread that was DOA like this one? Where is everyone?)

by paxson43 on Mar 12, 2007 7:52 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd feel righter
if I had typed Tyrus and Nocioni "should" be more than adequate instead of "will." I'd hate to see the Bulls trade a bunch of good, young players for Garnett and only have a 2 season window to win a championship before dynamiting the roster and rebuilding again. I prefer to see a good team with a decent shot at a title every season.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 13, 2007 8:24 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

22 million
I agree that some team has to wait until the opt out.  Garnett has 22 million reasons not to be traded.  The only way that it will ever get done with any team right now is if he is willing to accept some type of pay cut or just be a crybaby and sit out, unpaid, until he gets traded.  Otherwise, the Bulls give up too much, in my opinion.  I already think the Bulls are much better than their record, and Garnett isn't needed as much as the general public might think to get to the Finals.  I'd rather see if Tyrus can develop offensively in his second season.

The only way I see the Bulls getting Garnett is as a free agent, with Skiles and Pax showing up on his doorstep in their jeans, a la Ben Wallace.

GWKD

by GWKD on Mar 13, 2007 9:48 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see anyway a trade works anymore
I tried, but the numbers just don't add up.  Minny could have had so much talent even last summer.  If they would have dealt him right after the Wallace signing when Pax was in full win now mode then McHale probably could have had Chandler, Deng, and two more assets.

by Scotter on Mar 12, 2007 8:16 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Funny you mention that.
It seems like an easy way to get an expiring contract for trading purposes. Unfortunately, I saw somewhere that PJ Brown wanted a no trade clause in his contract, so I doubt he would go for it. Maybe you could do it with someone else. (Sweetney?)

by Repeat Threepeat on Mar 12, 2007 9:07 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PJ would do it
Because no one else is going to give him much more than the minimum.  I'm talking about something in the neighborhood of $10 mil, which is in and of itself ridiculous.  Noc would be a candidate too, but I see him getting an mle sized deal, and he is way more valuable to the Bulls at that salary level than as a trade chip for KG when it will probably cost the Bulls at least Thomas and probably either Gordon or Deng.  McHale has proven to be irrational when it comes to KG, so unless he is replaced, this isn't going to happen.

by bullshooter on Mar 12, 2007 9:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

terrible business model
signing guys on the hope thast you might eb able to trade for KG

by milesgmsu on Mar 14, 2007 6:50 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

um
i think that only happens if they need his salary.  otherwise PJ is looking at the minimum.

by bullshooter on Mar 14, 2007 10:31 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Garnett
is going to opt out of his contract and most likely sign with the team that can win a title. My gut says he lands in Miami.

by LD9 on Mar 12, 2007 10:44 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can..
Miami afford kg? I mean they do have some big guns, shaq and wade have got to be worth a real hefty price, no?
im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Mar 13, 2007 1:39 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Garnett
opts out he would already be giving up big money for some wins. There aren't any competitive teams that could hand out a big offer, and I think Destination: Miami was un-serious.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 13, 2007 8:20 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Miami
has 8.8 mil coming off the books with Posey, Payton, and Kopono. I think Garnett would take 9 million a year (remember FLA has no state income tax) for the best chance to win the title. Garnett will come out east because the Western powers are set at the 4 unless the Spurs would move Duncan to the 5.

by LD9 on Mar 13, 2007 9:07 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Learn how the salary cap works
Miami has already committed $64+ mil for next year, about $10 mil over the cap.  The most they could offer Garnett this summer would be the mle.  And I don't think Garnett can opt out until the season after next.

by bullshooter on Mar 13, 2007 9:48 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

looks like he can opt out this summer
why did I think it was after next summer.  My bad.

by bullshooter on Mar 13, 2007 10:46 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm still confused on that
I had thought all along it was next summer...and the SI.com salary page says as much. I think hoopshype may just be wrong in this case.

You'd think if he could opt out this summer there would've been some talk about that.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 13, 2007 10:58 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What about . .
If we trade Hinrich, Tyrus, Noc, and a protected future 1st for Garnett?  If Noc makes the 6 - 7 mil that I expect, the deal works fine.  Then we can use the Knicks pick to grab Acie Law IV (unless he has a huge tournament and ruins this hypothetical situation by becoming a top 10 pick).  Then we'd have a solid young backcourt rotation of Thabo, the Jizzle, and Law who seems to be one of those ready-to-contribute-right-away guys.  We'd get to keep Luol and we'd have a monster aging frontline of KG and Big Ben.  

While I think the OFFICIAL best GM in sports will probably keep Garnett to the bitter end and then lose him for nothing, I think this deal makes sense for both sides, especially if Paxson wants to go for it all in the next two years.  Personally, I wouldn't make this deal because it leaves the Bulls without any young bigs for the future and takes away the the lineup depth that they currently have when everybody is healthy.  Also it is contingent on Thabo making serious strides over the summer and Law being able to contribute right away.  But I think it's a way to get Garnett without creating too much of a lineup hole.

by Petor on Mar 13, 2007 9:49 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Knowing nothing
about Law's game, I'm perfectly content to be incredibly wary of expecting a rookie point guard to contribute (unless its Chris Paul, and I think he's staying in school, or playing for the Hornets), or even play on a headed-for-the-Finals team. The greatest GM in the UNIVERSE failed to acquire and keep a good point guard, and the Bulls would look pretty similar to the dissapointing T-Wolves playoff teams.

That said, the Supreme Cosmic General Manager has Randy Foye, and would probably demand Deng or Gordon.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 13, 2007 10:11 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oy, more Garnett talk?
We've obsessed so much about Garnett on this site, I can't stomach it anymore.  I don't even want him now.  Let's find some new blood to give us 20/10 from the 4 spot.

Its too soon after the trading deadline Matt.  Let's talk playoffs or something.

B-jizzle my nizzle!

by preverbal on Mar 13, 2007 10:18 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how about the other Kevin?
As in Kevin Durrant?  This kid is simply amazing.  I know it's college, but I really havent seen anyone dominate the way he does this being his freshman year!  The March 3rd game against Kansas shows why I think he will be a superstar within 3 seasons.  He has to put on about 30lbs of muscle, but I think he is still an impact player next season.  

Why not try to trade up in the draft and land him instead of Oden.  Celts dont seem too interested in keeping that pick so maybe they would entertain some offers. Lets get a big man through free agency.  

by DannyRange on Mar 13, 2007 1:44 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

huh?
Nobody's trading a top-2 pick. I don't think Durant is a secret. And all Celtics fans can do is hope for a draft pick to save them. And Danny Ainge.

(Wait, Ainge=Range?)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 13, 2007 1:48 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What is reasonable?
The Twolves are 16 million in the hole.  How can we put together a package that works financially?  

by DannyRange on Mar 13, 2007 1:54 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe a third team could help.
I have no scenarios tho...
48 is greater than 52

by Goostafer on Mar 13, 2007 2:20 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see Durant having an impact
in his first year.  What team is he going to be on where he'll be the first offensive option?  I don't think he's strong enough to have the same impact in the pros right away.  To me he's just a more aggressive version of Deng.

by bullshooter on Mar 13, 2007 2:41 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Brandon Roy
Has an impact in a team where he's not the first option, Durant can Def have an impact on a team like the Cs or Grizz. Aside from being skinny, this kid is just amazing. Who says he cant put on a good 15 - 20lbs in the summer? Plus, He wouldn't be drafted as an impact now type of player, he'd be the bulding block for the team... Now, if he decides to go to the NBA. 3years down the road, he'll be better than Melo. Guaranteed.
48 is greater than 52

by Goostafer on Mar 13, 2007 2:59 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, skinny guys suck, just like Garnett ; )
he's somewhere between 190-225, and probably 205.  If the "same impact" means that he won't be the best player in the NBA next year like he is in college, then, yes, I agree with you.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was a 20-10 guy in his first year; the dude gets points and boards without even breaking a sweat.
GWKD

by GWKD on Mar 13, 2007 3:11 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So did Morrison
Durant doesn't have a lot of competition in college.    And as far as adding 15-20 lbs in the summer, what world do you guys live in?  I would be shocked if he was a 20-10 guy next year.  I wouldn't be surprised if he a few 20-10 games, but c'mon, I'd be a little surprised if Oden was a 20-10 guy next year.  Dwight Howard isn't 20-10 yet, he's close, but he's not there yet.

by bullshooter on Mar 13, 2007 3:24 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eddy Curry and Michael Sweetney
are experts at adding 15-20 lbs. every summer (sometimes more!). Get them to coach Tyrus.

by Paxson Jackson on Mar 13, 2007 3:27 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Morrison is to Quayle what Durant is to Kennedy
Senator, I served with Morrison, I knew Morrison was a friend of mine, but Durant is no Morrison  (to paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen).
GWKD

by GWKD on Mar 13, 2007 3:31 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you're the one making the Morrison-Durant
comparison.  And those two examples are so far apart in terms of rebounding ability, defensive ability, ability to shoot over defenders, and ability to post up, and competitiveness in conference and non-conference play that the comparison isn't well taken. (and I happen to like Morrison).    
GWKD

by GWKD on Mar 13, 2007 3:56 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Forget about Garnett, Gasol, Oden and Durant
Simply isn't going to happen in any plausible scenario.  The Bulls waived bye-bye (not necessarily a criticism) to the first two at the trade deadline, the later two when the Knicks figured out how to play .500 ball.  If I'm wrong, it's a gift, but you can't plan on gifts.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but PaxJax is the only poster making sense.  Noc and Tyrus will split time at the 4 next year.  It's the most likely option because it's the best option.  Why?  'Cause there ain't any other better options.  Maybe we could pry off a Sean May and hope he's healthy, or a Jawan Howard and hope there's some gas left in the tank, but I think both wouldn't be able to earn more than 15 minutes a night.

The Bulls will pick up another guard with the first pick as insurance in case a gift does fall into our lap because any gift will cost us Hinrich.

by rednomore on Mar 13, 2007 4:39 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

post player
the best realistic option for a post player for the 07-08 team is to trade the Knicks pick and a future 1st rounder to the team that gets the 3rd pick and take Horford with it.

by LD9 on Mar 13, 2007 6:15 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Realistic?
You should have picked a better adjective.  First, a late lottery pick and a future last 1st round pick never gets you the 3rd pick in the draft.  Second, thinking that Horford would solve the post problem is nonsense.  As good as Horford is, he's stil not ready to socre from the post in the NBA.  

by Scotter on Mar 13, 2007 6:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

have to agree about Horford
He's a good energy player, but not the best post player.  They should look at Richards as a 2nd round selection.  I've watched Florida, and they play the best ball when Richards is scoring with his back to the basket.  He may be their best low post scorer.

by DannyRange on Mar 13, 2007 7:07 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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