Make a damned layup

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 10, 2007 8:29 PM CST in News Comment 39 comments

Came across this blog post by Erick Blasco on BleacherReport.com that broke down the Bulls-Pistons game from this past weekend:

Anyway you cut it, the Bulls are a finesse, jump-shooting ball club. They took 80 field goal attempts Friday, making 35.

On those 80 attempts, Chicago shot 15-31 from close range, 8-15 from midrange, and 12-32 from long range (6-14 from three).

15-31 from close range is a very disappointing statistic, especially when you consider that most of the makes were offensive putbacks or Andres Nocioni layups. The lion's share of Chicago’s close-range attempts came on low-percentage shots—contested drives, fadeaways from the post, or running layups.

Most telling was that most of Chicago’s attempts near the basket involved players moving away from the hoop. Nobody on the Bulls roster was athletic enough to consistently finish in traffic, nor was any Bulls player able to initiate offense from the post.

That reminded me of a diary from early October by sbulls9030 explaining how even without acquiring a 'low-post scorer', the changes in the Bulls' roster should improve the offense from their frontcourt simply by making these close shots with more regularity:

The issue here is not how many jump shots the Bulls take or a lack of the post play. The Bulls take about the same % of jump shots as any other team. The real issue with this team was its inability to make shots close to the basket. The Bulls finished dead last in close shot FG% at 50.1%. Average teams in this category shoot 55% on close shots and the leaders in this category shoot over 60% on close shots. Luckily this is an area that should improve this season because the team said goodbye to Malik Allen, Michael Sweetney, and P.J. Brown who combined to be simply awful last year.

That trio ate up 30 minutes of playing time per game, and took nearly 10 FGA/g with a combined FG% of 41.3%. Nocioni, Smith, Thomas, and Noah will not only shoot much better inside, but will turn many of those layups into dunks.

Unfortunately, this year's team is shooting even worse in 'close shots': 44.5%

Player	MPG	close shooting %
Wallace	32.3	.309
Thomas	19.4	.286
Smith	17.6	.419
Noah	12.4	.500

Not so funny now, is it Joe Smith?

'close shots', do not include tips or dunks. When those are all included together as 'inside' shots:

Player	MPG	inside shooting %
Wallace	32.3	.400
Thomas	19.4	.470
Smith	17.6	.457
Noah	12.4	.500

Tyrus' abysmal shooting numbers become less abysmal when factoring in that he attempts far more dunks (which is a higher percentage shot, naturally) than the others. But it's all still really awful, and far below last season's mark of .584 (Wallace is also down from last season's inside shooting% mark of .516) and as a group this frontcourt is even worse than what we saw last year with Brown, Allen, and Sweetney. Even Luol's numbers are down from in this category (he's attempting more down low though, so I still consider that progress).

Skiles has mentioned in the past the idea that Hinrich needs to make 'professional layups'. Turns out his frontcourt needs to do the same.

And considering that the minutes distribution listed above hasn't been what we've seen this past week, playing the guy who is "athletic enough to consistently finish in traffic" may help too.

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Really informative - great post

I'm more depressed now than I was. So basically the problem is that the Bulls are severly lacking in talent. If you haven't learned how to make a layup by now, I don't know what to tell you.

by windycityhoops on Dec 10, 2007 9:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

chin up

it's not the biggest sample size.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 10, 2007 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, and

I probably emphasized 'layups' a bit much by putting it in the title and at the end. It's not like this is measuring uncontested gimmes. It's stuff like the wacky Tyrus jump-hook, or the Ben Gordon arm-flail.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 10, 2007 9:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

At what point does the sample size

become meaningful? After all, we're rounding into the second quarter of the season. In human lifeline terms, we're smack in the middle of our college years. Admittedly, a lot of us haven't even chosen a career (let alone a major) by our early 20's. However, we do have one trusted resource upon whom we may lean for a college student `state of maturity' report. Is it still too early yet? Or do you, your parents, your professors, your fans...know what to expect out of you from this point going forward?

Ita est, ergo ita sit.

by alec on Dec 10, 2007 9:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Holy Jeebus, Mary, Joseph and Uncle Sam

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Dec 10, 2007 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

alec, you've outdone yourself.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 11, 2007 12:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have these numbers

for Noc? It feels almost silly to ask, but he is getting a lot of PF minutes, so his inside scoring might as well be considered in the mix.

Ita est, ergo ita sit.

by alec on Dec 10, 2007 9:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

look it up

'close' shots:

last year - .521
this year - .478

He's also taking fewer 'inside' attempts this year.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 10, 2007 9:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder...

...how much this has to do with teams being able to sag off Wallace, Noah, and (to a still large extent) Tyrus and clog the lane with bodies and contest close shots. And certainly the fact that there's no need to double any of our players make it rare that someone can sneak into the lane and get an uncontested layup.

by BenGo07 on Dec 11, 2007 12:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I suppose that's likely

But I still think it's surprising that a group that replaced Brown/Allen/Sweetney with Smith/Noah would be worse around the basket.

They're playing the ultimate 'spacing' PF in Nocioni alot, too.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 11, 2007 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Have you noticed the last 6 games?

Chicago is running offensive sets with Wallace, Noah, and Nocioni setting the left and right wing perimeter screen. It does two things. One, it brings the shot blocker out of the paint to shadow Wallace and Noah or it creates an immediate mismatch on the defensive swith to Nocioni.

Expect more of this.

by NBA Observer on Dec 11, 2007 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

have you noticed the last 4 years?

Wallace or whoever is playing the 4 always sets the pick. Have you ever seen BG or Kirk set the screen? In fact I don't think I've ever seen Deng set the pick either. "Expect more of this"... never a truer word was spoken.

Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Dec 11, 2007 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the insight

Does context ever matter to you? Reading the top level comment should help with the comprehension.

by NBA Observer on Dec 11, 2007 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Several things come to mind that make our bigs shooting look worse than it was last year.

Our abject failure to generate much in transition certainly has cut down on our "close" shot attempts and shooting percentage. It's not a perfect measure, but looking at 82Games team stats for shot clock usage, last year we took 42% of our shots within 0-10 seconds of the clock starting, and we had an eFG of 54%. This year it's 39% and 46%. While our shooting is down across the board, the biggest decline in our actual points is right there in how we generate possessions

Clock    Pts 06    Pts 07    Diff
0-10    37.1    30.2    -6.9
11-15    21.1    20.3    -0.8
16-20    15.5    14.9    -0.6
21+    6.4    6.9    0.5

Why has our transition game fallen apart? Pretty simple really:

Less strength on the defensive boards (PJ's muscle vs. Smith, Noah and Thomas being weak). If you don't win the rebound battle, you don't get opportunities to score quickly.
Crummy, awful guard play from Hinrich, Gordon, Duhon and Thabo. Aside from Duhon, none of these guys has done much to find anyone for quick and easy baskets.
The whole Tyrus Thomas needs to run fiasco. I don't know if it's coaching or because he's just a jackass, but he can't score quickly if he's following the guards up the court or hanging out by the 3 point line. Since we've all heard Skiles repeated and public harrangues for him to bust his ass up and down the court and get under the basket, I'm assuming a lot of that is on Tyrus.

Beyond that, the crummy guard play has led to our bigs taking fewer high quality shots in the half-court offense too. So it's really not goos all around.

by Sports2 on Dec 11, 2007 7:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

the hot air around here

Brown had a 13.6 REB-r in 2006-07, and a career 14.3. Muscle-ee!

Joe Smith had a 15.9 last season, and a career 14.0. He's actually become a better rebounder as he's aged. Thomas had a 15.9 last season as well.

If there's a rebounding problem, you can blame it on Nocioni's high minutes (career 12.2 REB-r, 12.0 this season), and the general suckiness of the Bulls. It's anything but losing Peej, who was never a big rebounder to begin with.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 8:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

err..

you do understand that boxing out isn't always done to get oneself a rebound, right?

by Sports2 on Dec 11, 2007 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that doesn't change anything

He was still a mediocre rebounder. Boxing out, jumping real high, and grabbing testicles don't amount to anything without results. I even used a stat that describes the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds.

I'm not even sure rebounding is a major problem. The Bulls are using 3 less possessions than last season; insignificant compared to the dropoff in shooting.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

9th in the league in defensive rebound rate

http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2008/d_reb4.htm

(slightly better than last season)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 11, 2007 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They've been getting better

very quickly.

Noah's coming along and despite being a weakling he knows how to play.
Wallace is the only guy who's not and he's playing more minutes
Smith isn't awful, just not a big net positive defensively

by Sports2 on Dec 11, 2007 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of boxing out

82games should track the amount of rebounds Nocioni takes from teammates who do box out. I'm gonna guess it's 1.3 per 40.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure it's next on the list

after tracking the Tom Dore-inspired 'Man's rebound'

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 11, 2007 10:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"Man's rebound"

and Dore's i'm-the-only-one-who-uses-this-but-i-don't-care nickname of "The Body" are amusing

by fireskiles on Dec 11, 2007 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Great post.

Matt's post outlines the Bulls' offensive troubles. No, the Bulls are not a jumpshooting team, but they are heavily reliant on the jumpshot.

A Wallace dip, a Smith hook, and a Noah offensive put just don't do it. Too many jump shooters.

by chicago-homesick-blues on Dec 11, 2007 8:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

finishing

I think the issue is we dont actually try to finish, we go in looking for contact instead of trying to make the shot, then when the contact isnt there or isnt called we are flailing towards the hoop or in the air out of control and thus no chance to make a shot

by bw on Dec 11, 2007 11:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for recalling that post

I remember that original post on "close FG%", and it had me very excited looking forward to this year. That the Bulls are even worse in this category now is doubly dissappointing.

Perhaps the greatest value that Noah and Gray can bring is to provide height so the rest of the team can practice inside shots against tall people.

Make a damned lay-up indeed.

Wrecked 'em? Damn near killed 'em!

by mdmnd9294 on Dec 11, 2007 11:02 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

off topic

sorry...but I can't help but notice the continued MyBulls bashing of Gordon (lol)...in today's game matchup email:

Ben Gordon has been one of the primary reasons for the Bulls' struggles.

"huh"? Seems kinda direct. I guess the highs of a 34-point game only lasts for a few days and then it's back to "they need to bench him" kind of talk. I don't remember seeing quotes like that when good ol' captain Kirk was struggling recently.

OK, I'm done now. Back to your regularly scheduled program...

by ScottieCartwright on Dec 11, 2007 11:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

BG FG%

Gordon's FG% hasn't shifted more than a hair in the midst of winning or the midst of losing. For what reason(s) should we not continue to ask questions about Gordon's FG%?

He hasn't gotten better yet. Why would we let him off the hook now?

I'd probably remain silent on Ben's FG% if he made more trips to the line.

by NBA Observer on Dec 11, 2007 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

or in the midst of making stuff up

2007-08
Wins: .458 FG%
Losses: .333 FG%

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

point was

they didn't make that qualifier about his FG%. They just made a blanket statement, which was pretty direct and unfair if you ask me. Why would he be singled out like that? EVERYONE has been the reason for the Bulls struggles this season, not just BG.

Sure, HIS shooting has been pretty bad, but isn't the TEAM also shooting 39% (or whatever it is)?

by ScottieCartwright on Dec 11, 2007 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you wouldn't be the first person

around here to blindly ignore the failings of your favorite player. What's interesting to me is that BG's poor performances only hurt the bulls when they are playing above average teams. The bulls seem to be able to overcome it when they are playing mediocre teams (Detroit being an obvious exception last week.)

Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Dec 11, 2007 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lack of aggression, too

In a way, to say "finesse" is to say "not taking it hard to the hole." Of the couple games I've been able to see down here in Nashville (without cable; I can't wait to get back to Chicago next year), whenever one of our bigs gets the ball within 10-15 feet, he's either looking to shoot right away, or to pass the ball as quickly as possible. This is with the exceptions of Noah (who seems to have some court presence) and Noc (who if he doesn't shoot or pass, is like a raging bull out of control to the hoop, which I guess is better than what Big Ben does). That, added to that fact that Hinrich passes up opportunities to take it to the hoop when he's beaten his man (infuriating), and Deng playing without a lot of patience, and we just seem like a very young team still.

It should be said that I think Tyrus can help in this regard, but we shouldn't be expecting it right away. If Deng is still figuring out how to best use his talents, Tyrus can't be expected to learn that quickly, either.

by arjoseph on Dec 11, 2007 11:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I've often thought about the diary I wrote

as I pondered how the league's worst team at finishing inside managed to be significantly worse. I still believe in what I wrote. And I still believe Thomas and Noah will eventually help in this area should they ever be allowed to play consistent minutes. Deng play has worried me. Last year he was changed player, dunking the ball twice as much as the year before. I haven't seen that player at all this year. Maybe it's his back, but it's troubling.

I've given up on the idea of Smith helping out here. But I also wasn't much of a fan of Smith playing much at all in the 1st place, and I'm still not. This team isn't going to win anything if Smith is the starting PF. Predictable mediocrity may make Skiles feel better, but it sure doesn't make me feel any better.

by Scotter on Dec 11, 2007 12:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

deep thoughts

with sbulls9030. Is it me or is everybody starting to sound like alec around here?

Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Dec 11, 2007 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

too many

in the same position that do the same thing, Wallace, Noah, Tyrus...neither can score the ball....(btw) Tyrus should have been LaMarcus.... team would be shooting better close in....

"We are who you thought we were"

by Thirdrock on Dec 11, 2007 12:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

your user name

is unworthy of fine acting talent... ... ...

There's differences between all 3 of those players. Thomas' scoring ability (15.5 PTS/40 in 2006-07), though limited, gives the offense a finisher, and driver. 2 things they really don't have. Noah's low usage, high FT/FG game this season has been nice too. Ben Wallace isn't close to either as a scorer.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Dec 11, 2007 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Noah & Thomas together

While neither will likely be within sniffing distance of the league scoring leaderboard each year, I think they do have complementary games on the offensive end. Tyrus seems to be more comfortable starting in the midrange area and driving to the hoop. I assume that's why they had him working on a jumper in the offseason, to help keep defenders honest against him. Noah seems much more comfortable just waiting by the basket to grab a rebound or take a pass when his man leaves him for help D on another Bull. I cringe when I see Noah get the ball on the perimeter, it's far from pretty. Noah's already shown a propensity for getting to the line. Hopefully, when there's a new coach in town and TT isn't so scared of being benched, he'll get more aggressive in his finishing attempts as well. Remember, as time goes on, both should get better at putting the ball through the hoop in their own way. These too aren't quite as similar as most may think.

by snley on Dec 11, 2007 1:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thought this was interesting

It may be relevant to Tyrus Thomas.

This is from David Thorpe's scouting of Dwight Howard.

Post defense is at its weakest in transition, so looking to run actually helps a team get the ball inside when it has a post player who can change ends like Howard. Last season the Magic played at the sixth slowest pace in the NBA; this year they are the seventh fastest.

No Chicago has nothing like a post player in Dwight Howard, but changing ends faster to corral missed jump shots fired of in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock in transition is one thing Chicago does a lot.

by NBA Observer on Dec 11, 2007 3:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs