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Free throw discrepancy - whose fault is it?

[Very enjoyable diary. I don't think anyone's been solely blaming the officials for the free-throw discrepancy, although it'd be nice if Gordon got an Iverson treatment. Or even a lighter version of that treatment. The early numbers are awful, and it's something that needs to not only get to previous levels, but improve over last season. Or else the taunts of 'jump shooting team' will remain, with merit. -Matt]

First of all, I just want to introduce myself. I'm Jaina, a 24 year old Chicago native now living in Boston.

Onto the diary:

Sometimes it seems that the Bulls get the short end of the stick when it comes to foul calls. This theory is backed up by the fact that the past three games, our opponent has shot more free throws than we attempted during the game.

However, the inclination should not be to blame the refs. Against New Jersey, they were whistled for 31 fouls and the Bulls were whistled for 30. Against Philadelphia, the Bulls were called for 23, the Sixers 22. And against the Bucks, the Bulls were called for 25 fouls to Milwaukee's 21. Not a huge difference there.

So what is the problem? This indicates that either the Bulls foul in bunches, creating a penalty situation, or they foul shooters a lot. On the offensive end, it means they are not attacking the basket and not taking advantage of the opponent getting into the penalty.

Against New Jersey, 21 of our 30 fouls resulted in one or more free throws for them - 70% of our fouls. Only 13 of their 31 - 41.9% - resulted in free throws for the Bulls. Against Philadelphia, 17 of 23, or 77.3% of our fouls translated into free throws, and only 9 of their 22 - 40.9% - ended up giving us free throws. The Bulls fouled the Bucks 14 times out of 25 - 56% - for free throws, and the Bulls shot free throws on Bucks' fouls just 9 times out of 21, for 42.9%.

The Milwaukee game included 12 offensive fouls - 7 for the Bucks, for 1/3 of their total fouls, and 5 for the Bulls, for 1/5. Even if the offensive fouls are not considered, the percentage rate of getting free throws from fouls increases to 14/20 (70%) for the Bulls, and 9/14 (64.3%) for the Bucks. Even though the Bucks had more offensive fouls and fewer total fouls, the Bulls still gave them free throws at a higher rate.

In the first quarter against New Jersey, the Bulls had 10 fouls, 7 of which ended in free throws. The Nets had 8 foul calls with only 2 of them ending in free throws for the Bulls. The Bulls were called for 4 fouls in the opening 2 minutes, immediately placing them in the penalty. They need to calm themselves down. Each time they foul, it almost seems to cascade. Against the Sixers, Hinrich gets called for 2 quick fouls and then a technical, giving them three free throws. That is not the type of behavior we should get from our captain.

What's to be done? The Nets shot the most number of free throws of our opponents at 41, and that is not an outrageously high total. The fact that we shot 26, 19, and 17 in the three games is the outrageous part. A drive at the end of regulation against New Jersey maybe gives us a layup or a foul call, allowing us to shoot free throws to take the lead (though there were other issues with that play - screen was too late, and why was Wallace in the game?).

Philadelphia opened the 4th quarter with 3 fouls in 30 seconds, and they only ended up being called for 4 more fouls in the period. 4 of the 7 fouls resulted in free throws. If the Bulls had driven to the basket more, they could have squeezed more fouls out of Philly in the final period.

Sure, it seems like our guys get hit under the basket with no call a lot. Maybe they deserve a few more of those calls. However, the refs are not calling a ridiculous amount of fouls on us. Only shooting fouls. We are supposed to be a good defensive team, but we can't play defense with fouls. I believe that the Bulls can snap out of their funk, but this is something that has nagged them for a few years. We don't need a post-up scorer to get free throws, but we do need to attack the basket.

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How about...
Getting guys that drive to the hoop and not settle for jump shots?

Serious.  

by Chad on Nov 5, 2007 8:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Chad, I agree
(and I'm also serious.)

Although I still want to believe the idea that we have the guys, and that Gordon and Deng should attack more often. Although it's an issue since both of them aren't very good ballhandlers. Tyrus may be the best on the team at forcing the team to foul him, and Nocioni at least seems to get it.

On that final play of the Nets game, Gordon was supposed to pass to Noc cutting to the basket, but Nocioni screwed up his entire assignment, as is his way.

The premise has been gone here over many times before, but I appreciate the research Jaina put into this, especially catagorizing the shooting and non-shooting fouls.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 5, 2007 9:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
for putting me on the front.

Obviously I was just taking one problem of several the Bulls have right now, and perhaps slightly oversimplifying.  After seeing the fouls were called even (particularly against the Nets) yet they had so many more foul shots, I wanted to break it down a bit.  I didn't see that anyone had really taken this viewpoint or explained it fully, so I just used it to provide another view since I'm sure everyone realizes we could take it to the basket more.

I just know I've noticed this problem throughout the past couple years and these past 3 games really were just glaring.  (Regardless of Violet Palmer, the discrepancy wasn't THAT huge.)

by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 10:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep
Basically the point I was trying to bring up with all the stats.  It's not the number of fouls called.  

by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 9:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the research.
After three similar games I am hoping they watch the tapes and realize that driving to the basket might not be such a bad thing. If they keep at it they will eventually get the calls or in the very least cause the defense to switch which might open up their outside shoots.  Heck, they might actually score down there too. Couldn't be worse than banging jump shots off the side of the rim over and over.  

As bad as it sounds, Duhon seems to be one of the few not scared to dive towards the baskets. At least I seem to remember him making some down there.  Noc isn't half bad at it when he doesn't travel, but lately it seems like he plants his feet and shoots whenever someone passes him the ball.

Sometimes I wonder if they can hear Stacey King by the sidelines when he keeps saying they should drive hard to the basket if their shots are not falling.  It seems obvious, but for most of them it seems like the last thing they are willing to do.

by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 9:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

heh
shoots=shots

But while I'm here, I will say I'll be thrilled if they can manage not to get into foul trouble early at the start of quarters.  Most of the time it seem to be stupid fouls like being beaten to a spot and then getting frustrated or desperate in their defense instead of conceding the mistake and making the best of it.  This has been what plagues Hinrich, but there are a number of players who still try a late block against a jump shooter and have me flinching as they end up flying through the air and falling into the shooter for the obvious foul.  Either be faster on rotation or put up an extended arm and realize you only have a tiny chance of blocking it and almost a certainty of landing on them.  Enough with the flying heroics.

by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 10:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

just to point out
part of the problem Saturday was the officiating crew - Violet Palmer's.  Not that that explains the first two games, but the crew had a huge hand in sending Deng and Kirk to the bench early.

by KT on Nov 5, 2007 10:09 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

hmm, good point.
Hollinger should come up with VioletPalmer-independent statistics.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 5, 2007 10:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hinrich has potential
To be that guy that inside/outside threat.
I remember a handful of games where Hinrich drove straight to the hoop and made some impressive plays.
youtube.com/angryasianace

by AngryAsianAce on Nov 5, 2007 10:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

How long are we going to say
Hinrich has potential? You don't say that about guys that have been in the league for over 3 years.
It's Go Time Pax!

by Knowledge32 on Nov 6, 2007 10:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he does get better every year
That's enough to expect a little more in the future.

by hscs on Nov 6, 2007 10:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point
He seems to be one of the quicker guards on the floor no matter who they play. I don't understand why he settles for jump shots when he can get to the basket at will or drive and kick
It's Go Time Pax!

by Knowledge32 on Nov 6, 2007 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To say that someone has the potential to
improve an area of their game is not the same as saying they have potential in the Noah/Gray sense.  Just the generic "potential" label implies that someone is not ready to make a serious contribution to the team at this time, but may, and even is likely to, do so in the future.

I would hope that all of the core is looking at the weaker part of their individual game as well as the needs of the team and working hard to improve those areas - saying Kirk has potential to improve his inside game is no different to me than saying Lu has potential to be a post-up scorer or BG has the potential to be a better defender.

"They had me do a psychology test and I asked Coach Skiles if that affected his coaching. He laughed and said, `No way.'" (Joakim Noah)

by wjb1492 on Nov 6, 2007 11:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of thoughts on fouls.
  1. Gordon and Deng have been driving the lane trying to get fouled, but they're driving into four defenders and turning the ball over instead.  In alot of those cases the team would have been better off if neither player tried to drive to the basket.
  2. The shooting foul vs. personal foul disparity is an interesting one.  Gordon actually was near the top of the league in drawing fouls overall, but a very high % of those fouls were non-shooting fouls.  Gordon was among the top 5 in the league in drawing non-shooting fouls, but not nearly as good drawing shooting fouls.
  3. Part of the reason for the disparity in FTA is the offensive design.  A significant % of shooting fouls come from 1 on 1 situations, but the Bulls almost never isolate players.  Nearly everything is a screen roll situation where the foul is usualy committed before the shot.  Tyrus last year was the one player that consistently found himself in 1 on 1 situations.  He attacked in those situations and in doing so went to the line a t a very high rate.
  4. Just a reminder that FTs are the least important of the four factors when it comes to winning.  effective FG%, turnover rate, and rebound rate are all more important.  When it comes to explaining the last three games, look first at the shooting, then at the turnovers, then at the rebounding, and lastly at free throws.  The Bulls haven't been bad in just one area, they've been bad in all four.

by Scotter on Nov 5, 2007 11:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I agree
But I was just looking at one problem, because I could write an essay on the rest of their problems, haha.

However, being able to draw FTs is one of the single most important things when shots aren't falling.  And since they haven't been falling for the past 3 games, we needed to be creating opportunities to score for ourselves by drawing fouls, and we couldn't do that.  Sometimes free throws win games.

BG dribbling into turnovers is a different and equally annoying problem.  I hate watching him fall over and lose the ball over and over.

by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 11:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was just adding some context
FTM/FGA still accounts for 15% of winning, and is a significant factor in alot of games.  FTs can make a difference on bad shooting nights, but a team also has to be avoiding turnovers, rebounding, and playing good defense for those FTs to be the difference between winning and losing most nights.

by Scotter on Nov 5, 2007 11:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

True
and your comment is appreciated - I always enjoy your posts (I've been reading here awhile though I just joined).

by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 11:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Free throws.
4. When the other team is staying in the game partially by us sending them to the free throw line  for 20+ points it would be nice for us to even out their free throw opportunities with our own for that fact alone.  The games would have been a lot closer if we could have either reduced the number of times we sent them to the line or matched it with our own attempts.  

I can't remember which game it was, but one of the teams had a shallow bench when it came to a center position so we should have exploited the paint since he was either going to have to under defend to not draw the fouls he couldn't afford or foul us and force them to replace him with a weaker defender which should have lead to more inside scoring or foul shot opportunities.  We should have pounded that position early in each quarter to get them to rack up fouls, but I don't remember that happening.  

by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 11:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so worried about these games
but getting a better FT rate is what this team can improve on compared to last season, assuming the shooting gets back on track. I'd almost rather seen Deng and Gordon continue to try and turn the ball over than another season of the same offense.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 12:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the key is...
We know (or rationally assume) the Bulls will be better at shooting and rebounding than what they've done so far. Those are fundamental parts of players' games that one shouldn't just "forget". Turnovers... we all wish they would do better, but it doesn't seem like they would reduce the TO's as easily as they could increase FTAs.

So maybe (and this is more directed towards sbulls), it's not so much of an explanatory of why they're where they are, but what to expect going forward. They've done everything bad, but we should expect two to improve a lot (if they don't, we sure are screwed and something screwy happened in Chicago over the summer). And so maybe, with righting those ships, they'll still have an area that we can wish they would improve on.

Or something. That's a jumbled mess of crap where I'm sure there was a point to start.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 12:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah... um...
you just said that. Sorry. I thought you said something else.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 12:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gordon
vastly improved on this last year.  Sometimes he even impressed me with his ability to drive and finish near the basket at difficult angles, shots being challenged....the kind of thing iverson does so well.  Then again, there are all those times when he goes in there and I get a feeling reminiscent of Tyrus Thomas shooting his 15 foot jumpshot. As for Hinrich, I never felt he was much of a threat. He doesn't finish very well in traffic and he doesn't have the speed or explosivness to blow by people. If Thomas can start hitting the 15 footer it would also make it a lot less crowded in the paint.

by Sambossanova on Nov 6, 2007 12:49 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

plenty blame to go around?
I agree that part of the problem is offensive design. Maybe that's the same thing wrong with the defense. I always hear Skiles preach this tough defense thing to death. Does anybody realize the NBA wants more scoring not less. Could it be the Bulls continually finish at the top of the fg% rankings because they foul so much.  

All these slow starts after camp leads me to believe Skiles lets the Bulls foul in practice/camp installing his system. Why is it that we have a systems on offense and defense that go away from our best players strengths? Where are the new offensive sets taking advantage of Dengs post game? Why bring a sure double team to your guards several times a game? Why haven't the Bulls gone to a Zone defense to protect their top players like most other teams?  Why don't we ever run? Shouldn't we be a more uptempo team? Bulls coaches need to step their game up as well. Scott Skiles has not been  impressive  

by Blacknight23 on Nov 6, 2007 6:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Threw the Bears under the bus...
after just a few games.

Hope we don't have to sit out the basketball season too!

by hhi on Nov 6, 2007 6:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Contribution of Wallace's injury?
I don't know if this could be quantified, but I wonder how much Wallace's below-average play contributes to this.  One reason Big Ben was brought in was to give the team some defensive respect with the officials.

If he is not playing near the top of his game, maybe that contributes to the rest of the team either fouling more to cover for him, or not getting the same breaks from the refs?

Wrecked 'em? Damn near killed 'em!

by mdmnd9294 on Nov 6, 2007 10:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

it's our fault!
for having high expectations!
 

by chicago-homesick-blues on Nov 6, 2007 11:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I hope the Bulls
don't have any deals out there offering to switch first round picks this year.

by alec on Nov 6, 2007 1:13 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

How many
of Paxson's deals would you like to have back?  TT for Aldridge?  Yes.  Chandler for..well, nobody (although we could petition Denver for JR Smith)?  Yes.  Carney for Thabo?  Why not?--Yes.  Ben Wallace for the team's whole salary structure?  Yes.  Curry for both TT and Noah?  It all depends on whether we could get Aldridge back first.   If not, then Yes to this do-over, too.  Jamal Crawford for...are any of those guys still active?  Yes. And of course the big one, the  one he didn't make (can I count this one?) Kobe for take your pick of any three?  A resounding Yes.

Missed any?  Disagree with any?  Paxson is an abomination...easily the equal of his brother...except, of course, as a player.

by alec on Nov 6, 2007 1:35 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nominated!
Ridiculous comment of the day.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 1:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nominated!
For doucheyist comment of the day!

Why not try to explain why you don't like comment rather than just be a dick?

by Chad on Nov 6, 2007 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not to change the subject,
but has anyone seen Chad and alec in the same room at the same time?  A bit fishy . . .

by Petor on Nov 6, 2007 3:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Only Matt
knows for sure!

by alec on Nov 6, 2007 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

One of those "assumed" thingies...
Like... when there are basic assumptions made amongst intelligent people when they are debating subjects. Something like that. Everyone but you and the poster knows why saying "ALL of those were bad moves" is ridiculous.

Besides, on a less doucheyist [sic] level they didn't provide any reasoning or argument as to why those were bad moves (you probably missed that), so why should I?

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 5:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

always a good time
when the Jamal Crawford fan club makes an appearance.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 1:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The only one I'd consider
is Thabo, since he really hasn't done much yet, but what has Carney done?  And maybe EB, but then the bulls are a mediocre team and probably don't get high picks in 2004.  Jamal brought us Noah, right?  And Curry was Tyrus?
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 6, 2007 1:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Curry got both
Crawford 'got' JYD off the books, and the privelage of not paying Jamal Crawford.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 2:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What are you taking...
...and where can I get some?
  • TT vs. Aldridge: Too soon to tell.  Most thought Aldridge would contribute more quickly, but TT could be more of a game-changer down the road.  TT has already done things that Aldridge can only do playing NBA Live.
  • Thabo vs. Carney: Keep Thabo
  • Wallace: Keep Wallace.  What available free agent would you have wanted last year instead?
  • Chandler: Good player, but he and Skiles had reached the end of their partnership.  That's the problem with the High School draftees - by the time they really ready to contribute, most of them have moved on from their 1st NBA team.
  • JR Smith:  Even George Karl can't stand him! And you want him here?
  • Curry & Crawford: You can't be serious?  You are out of your doped head if you want these yahoos.
You missed one move: Trading Elton Brand for the opportunity to draft Chandler/Curry (don't remember which one).  Oh wait, that was Krause's coup de grace, wasn't it?

While I'm dissappointed with the start, I'm not willing to discard 3 years of progress.  This team is so young and so deep.  They are only going to get better.  They are really well positioned for a long period of consistent success.

Paxson is good.  He knows what he wants and goes out and gets it.  That type of consistency will lead to sustained success more than any fligty trend-following and accumulation of "talent" with no thought on how it will work together.

But it was kind of you to post here, Isiah!

Wrecked 'em? Damn near killed 'em!

by mdmnd9294 on Nov 6, 2007 2:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So what could have been?
Chandler Noah
Aldridge
Deng
Gordon
Hinrich
Hey who let Danny Crawford back in the league?

by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Nov 6, 2007 4:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe
Assuming we would have picked Noah.  Assuming we would have had success last year in the playoffs against Miami with Chandler on Shaq.  Assuming that Aldridge would have developed off the bench on a reasonably good Bulls team rather than starting with a mediocre team and getting the benefits of having offense ran through him all the time.  Players develop differently when they go from the draft to non-playoff bound teams.  He'd have been on the shelfed like most rooks who go to the Bulls. Just a thought.

by cranscape on Nov 6, 2007 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

your right
no Noah.
Did the Bulls trade for Kobe today? Oh, so I still have to watch these midgets?

by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Nov 6, 2007 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hawaiian woodrose seeds.
Stock up while they're still legal.

I'm sure one of the statistics mavens can answer this--if a player is destined to become a bona fide star, how many seasons does it usually take to surface?  It seems to me that by a player's second, and certainly third year, you know.  And I can't say we know for sure about any of these youngish Bulls.

by alec on Nov 6, 2007 5:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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