Free throw discrepancy - whose fault is it?
[Very enjoyable diary. I don't think anyone's been solely blaming the officials for the free-throw discrepancy, although it'd be nice if Gordon got an Iverson treatment. Or even a lighter version of that treatment. The early numbers are awful, and it's something that needs to not only get to previous levels, but improve over last season. Or else the taunts of 'jump shooting team' will remain, with merit. -Matt]
First of all, I just want to introduce myself. I'm Jaina, a 24 year old Chicago native now living in Boston.
Onto the diary:
Sometimes it seems that the Bulls get the short end of the stick when it comes to foul calls. This theory is backed up by the fact that the past three games, our opponent has shot more free throws than we attempted during the game.
However, the inclination should not be to blame the refs. Against New Jersey, they were whistled for 31 fouls and the Bulls were whistled for 30. Against Philadelphia, the Bulls were called for 23, the Sixers 22. And against the Bucks, the Bulls were called for 25 fouls to Milwaukee's 21. Not a huge difference there.
So what is the problem? This indicates that either the Bulls foul in bunches, creating a penalty situation, or they foul shooters a lot. On the offensive end, it means they are not attacking the basket and not taking advantage of the opponent getting into the penalty.
Against New Jersey, 21 of our 30 fouls resulted in one or more free throws for them - 70% of our fouls. Only 13 of their 31 - 41.9% - resulted in free throws for the Bulls. Against Philadelphia, 17 of 23, or 77.3% of our fouls translated into free throws, and only 9 of their 22 - 40.9% - ended up giving us free throws. The Bulls fouled the Bucks 14 times out of 25 - 56% - for free throws, and the Bulls shot free throws on Bucks' fouls just 9 times out of 21, for 42.9%.
The Milwaukee game included 12 offensive fouls - 7 for the Bucks, for 1/3 of their total fouls, and 5 for the Bulls, for 1/5. Even if the offensive fouls are not considered, the percentage rate of getting free throws from fouls increases to 14/20 (70%) for the Bulls, and 9/14 (64.3%) for the Bucks. Even though the Bucks had more offensive fouls and fewer total fouls, the Bulls still gave them free throws at a higher rate.
In the first quarter against New Jersey, the Bulls had 10 fouls, 7 of which ended in free throws. The Nets had 8 foul calls with only 2 of them ending in free throws for the Bulls. The Bulls were called for 4 fouls in the opening 2 minutes, immediately placing them in the penalty. They need to calm themselves down. Each time they foul, it almost seems to cascade. Against the Sixers, Hinrich gets called for 2 quick fouls and then a technical, giving them three free throws. That is not the type of behavior we should get from our captain.
What's to be done? The Nets shot the most number of free throws of our opponents at 41, and that is not an outrageously high total. The fact that we shot 26, 19, and 17 in the three games is the outrageous part. A drive at the end of regulation against New Jersey maybe gives us a layup or a foul call, allowing us to shoot free throws to take the lead (though there were other issues with that play - screen was too late, and why was Wallace in the game?).
Philadelphia opened the 4th quarter with 3 fouls in 30 seconds, and they only ended up being called for 4 more fouls in the period. 4 of the 7 fouls resulted in free throws. If the Bulls had driven to the basket more, they could have squeezed more fouls out of Philly in the final period.
Sure, it seems like our guys get hit under the basket with no call a lot. Maybe they deserve a few more of those calls. However, the refs are not calling a ridiculous amount of fouls on us. Only shooting fouls. We are supposed to be a good defensive team, but we can't play defense with fouls. I believe that the Bulls can snap out of their funk, but this is something that has nagged them for a few years. We don't need a post-up scorer to get free throws, but we do need to attack the basket.
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44 comments
Comments
How about...
Serious.
by Chad on Nov 5, 2007 8:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Chad, I agree
Although I still want to believe the idea that we have the guys, and that Gordon and Deng should attack more often. Although it's an issue since both of them aren't very good ballhandlers. Tyrus may be the best on the team at forcing the team to foul him, and Nocioni at least seems to get it.
On that final play of the Nets game, Gordon was supposed to pass to Noc cutting to the basket, but Nocioni screwed up his entire assignment, as is his way.
The premise has been gone here over many times before, but I appreciate the research Jaina put into this, especially catagorizing the shooting and non-shooting fouls.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 5, 2007 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Obviously I was just taking one problem of several the Bulls have right now, and perhaps slightly oversimplifying. After seeing the fouls were called even (particularly against the Nets) yet they had so many more foul shots, I wanted to break it down a bit. I didn't see that anyone had really taken this viewpoint or explained it fully, so I just used it to provide another view since I'm sure everyone realizes we could take it to the basket more.
I just know I've noticed this problem throughout the past couple years and these past 3 games really were just glaring. (Regardless of Violet Palmer, the discrepancy wasn't THAT huge.)
by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 9:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the research.
As bad as it sounds, Duhon seems to be one of the few not scared to dive towards the baskets. At least I seem to remember him making some down there. Noc isn't half bad at it when he doesn't travel, but lately it seems like he plants his feet and shoots whenever someone passes him the ball.
Sometimes I wonder if they can hear Stacey King by the sidelines when he keeps saying they should drive hard to the basket if their shots are not falling. It seems obvious, but for most of them it seems like the last thing they are willing to do.
by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 9:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
heh
But while I'm here, I will say I'll be thrilled if they can manage not to get into foul trouble early at the start of quarters. Most of the time it seem to be stupid fouls like being beaten to a spot and then getting frustrated or desperate in their defense instead of conceding the mistake and making the best of it. This has been what plagues Hinrich, but there are a number of players who still try a late block against a jump shooter and have me flinching as they end up flying through the air and falling into the shooter for the obvious foul. Either be faster on rotation or put up an extended arm and realize you only have a tiny chance of blocking it and almost a certainty of landing on them. Enough with the flying heroics.
by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 10:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
just to point out
by KT on Nov 5, 2007 10:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
hmm, good point.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 5, 2007 10:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hinrich has potential
I remember a handful of games where Hinrich drove straight to the hoop and made some impressive plays.
by AngryAsianAce on Nov 5, 2007 10:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How long are we going to say
by Knowledge32 on Nov 6, 2007 10:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
he does get better every year
by hscs on Nov 6, 2007 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not only better in general
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 10:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
by Knowledge32 on Nov 6, 2007 1:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To say that someone has the potential to
I would hope that all of the core is looking at the weaker part of their individual game as well as the needs of the team and working hard to improve those areas - saying Kirk has potential to improve his inside game is no different to me than saying Lu has potential to be a post-up scorer or BG has the potential to be a better defender.
by wjb1492 on Nov 6, 2007 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of thoughts on fouls.
- Gordon and Deng have been driving the lane trying to get fouled, but they're driving into four defenders and turning the ball over instead. In alot of those cases the team would have been better off if neither player tried to drive to the basket.
- The shooting foul vs. personal foul disparity is an interesting one. Gordon actually was near the top of the league in drawing fouls overall, but a very high % of those fouls were non-shooting fouls. Gordon was among the top 5 in the league in drawing non-shooting fouls, but not nearly as good drawing shooting fouls.
- Part of the reason for the disparity in FTA is the offensive design. A significant % of shooting fouls come from 1 on 1 situations, but the Bulls almost never isolate players. Nearly everything is a screen roll situation where the foul is usualy committed before the shot. Tyrus last year was the one player that consistently found himself in 1 on 1 situations. He attacked in those situations and in doing so went to the line a t a very high rate.
- Just a reminder that FTs are the least important of the four factors when it comes to winning. effective FG%, turnover rate, and rebound rate are all more important. When it comes to explaining the last three games, look first at the shooting, then at the turnovers, then at the rebounding, and lastly at free throws. The Bulls haven't been bad in just one area, they've been bad in all four.
by Scotter on Nov 5, 2007 11:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
However, being able to draw FTs is one of the single most important things when shots aren't falling. And since they haven't been falling for the past 3 games, we needed to be creating opportunities to score for ourselves by drawing fouls, and we couldn't do that. Sometimes free throws win games.
BG dribbling into turnovers is a different and equally annoying problem. I hate watching him fall over and lose the ball over and over.
by Jaina on Nov 5, 2007 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just adding some context
by Scotter on Nov 5, 2007 11:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Free throws.
I can't remember which game it was, but one of the teams had a shallow bench when it came to a center position so we should have exploited the paint since he was either going to have to under defend to not draw the fouls he couldn't afford or foul us and force them to replace him with a weaker defender which should have lead to more inside scoring or foul shot opportunities. We should have pounded that position early in each quarter to get them to rack up fouls, but I don't remember that happening.
by cranscape on Nov 5, 2007 11:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so worried about these games
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 12:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the key is...
So maybe (and this is more directed towards sbulls), it's not so much of an explanatory of why they're where they are, but what to expect going forward. They've done everything bad, but we should expect two to improve a lot (if they don't, we sure are screwed and something screwy happened in Chicago over the summer). And so maybe, with righting those ships, they'll still have an area that we can wish they would improve on.
Or something. That's a jumbled mess of crap where I'm sure there was a point to start.
by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 12:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah... um...
by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 12:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon
by Sambossanova on Nov 6, 2007 12:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
plenty blame to go around?
All these slow starts after camp leads me to believe Skiles lets the Bulls foul in practice/camp installing his system. Why is it that we have a systems on offense and defense that go away from our best players strengths? Where are the new offensive sets taking advantage of Dengs post game? Why bring a sure double team to your guards several times a game? Why haven't the Bulls gone to a Zone defense to protect their top players like most other teams? Why don't we ever run? Shouldn't we be a more uptempo team? Bulls coaches need to step their game up as well. Scott Skiles has not been impressive
by Blacknight23 on Nov 6, 2007 6:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Threw the Bears under the bus...
Hope we don't have to sit out the basketball season too!
by hhi on Nov 6, 2007 6:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I thought I was all alone about Violet Palmer...
by SlickRick76 on Nov 6, 2007 8:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Contribution of Wallace's injury?
If he is not playing near the top of his game, maybe that contributes to the rest of the team either fouling more to cover for him, or not getting the same breaks from the refs?
by mdmnd9294 on Nov 6, 2007 10:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe they play a little bit "too hard"
by Option27 on Nov 6, 2007 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
it's our fault!
by chicago-homesick-blues on Nov 6, 2007 11:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hope the Bulls
by alec on Nov 6, 2007 1:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How many
Missed any? Disagree with any? Paxson is an abomination...easily the equal of his brother...except, of course, as a player.
by alec on Nov 6, 2007 1:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nominated!
by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 1:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nominated!
Why not try to explain why you don't like comment rather than just be a dick?
by Chad on Nov 6, 2007 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to change the subject,
by Petor on Nov 6, 2007 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One of those "assumed" thingies...
Besides, on a less doucheyist [sic] level they didn't provide any reasoning or argument as to why those were bad moves (you probably missed that), so why should I?
by tyger1147 on Nov 6, 2007 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
always a good time
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The only one I'd consider
by bullshooter on Nov 6, 2007 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Curry got both
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 6, 2007 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What are you taking...
- TT vs. Aldridge: Too soon to tell. Most thought Aldridge would contribute more quickly, but TT could be more of a game-changer down the road. TT has already done things that Aldridge can only do playing NBA Live.
- Thabo vs. Carney: Keep Thabo
- Wallace: Keep Wallace. What available free agent would you have wanted last year instead?
- Chandler: Good player, but he and Skiles had reached the end of their partnership. That's the problem with the High School draftees - by the time they really ready to contribute, most of them have moved on from their 1st NBA team.
- JR Smith: Even George Karl can't stand him! And you want him here?
- Curry & Crawford: You can't be serious? You are out of your doped head if you want these yahoos.
While I'm dissappointed with the start, I'm not willing to discard 3 years of progress. This team is so young and so deep. They are only going to get better. They are really well positioned for a long period of consistent success.
Paxson is good. He knows what he wants and goes out and gets it. That type of consistency will lead to sustained success more than any fligty trend-following and accumulation of "talent" with no thought on how it will work together.
But it was kind of you to post here, Isiah!
by mdmnd9294 on Nov 6, 2007 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So what could have been?
Aldridge
Deng
Gordon
Hinrich
by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Nov 6, 2007 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
by cranscape on Nov 6, 2007 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
your right
by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Nov 6, 2007 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hawaiian woodrose seeds.
I'm sure one of the statistics mavens can answer this--if a player is destined to become a bona fide star, how many seasons does it usually take to surface? It seems to me that by a player's second, and certainly third year, you know. And I can't say we know for sure about any of these youngish Bulls.
by alec on Nov 6, 2007 5:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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