We first need a chance to find out if we're wrong
It's getting to the point where it's tough to come up with reasons not to fire Scott Skiles. This team is just abysmal to watch, and especially listen to, when hearing about how they're getting better while scoring 78 points in consecutive games to the Knicks and Raptors. The freaking Knicks! A team that can't play any defense and is always looking for an excuse to roll over and die each game.
This start is beyond any likely scenario going into the season. It will mean braying and gnashing over opportunities lost (especially the made-up kind, like being able to get Garnett). But unless you predicted that Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Thomas and Sefolosha would all regress, I can't see how clamoring for a major shake-up in the summer would've made enough of a difference now.
Because the sad thing is that this team is so far from their norms it's nearly impossible to find out if they'll be worth keeping long-term, which was a goal coming into this season. Granted, if they stay this bad then then we did find out, but I still don't see that happening.
So Pax assembled this current mess, but he also assembled a very good young team last year that should be improving. So to me he's in the clear for now. Right now his major misfire is the Ben Wallace signing, but there's still time to salvage that.
But Skiles? He's not the main problem, but I don't doubt that Skiles' lineup shenanigans made things worse. The fact that at game 11 he's circled back at the original starting lineup means the early change was mostly arbitrary and pointless in the first place. Not to mention going from starting Adrian Griffin go DNPing him in a week.
Yes, Skiles' teams improve, but this start is beyond repair to become a 'successful' season anyway. A made-up rule is to use 20 games as a good indicator, and even if they win 8 straight they'd be .500 after 20 games, which is a failure. And just because Skiles' teams have started with bad records before doesn't mean they have any special ability to get out of bad records (usually it's a cupcake schedule, which won't be the case this December like the last). And when they do play better, what's 'turning it around'? 44 wins and have Skiles blow at least one playoff game by playing his veterans too much? Getting back to how they have been isn't good enough.
I'm more just wanting Pax to make a statement that this hasn't worked, and lets try something different. Fire Skiles now (or more likely if they lose Tuesday against a not-terrible Atlanta team, so Pax will have until Saturday to make a change, and give the new coach a honeymoon game against Charlotte), get in an assistant to at least play different rotations and give the team a new voice, and then between now and February there's plenty of info to glean and then deals to potentially make. This franchise is still in a good position with a lot of young talent. Lets not waste it by letting Skiles 'figure things out'.
No, Skiles' replacement won't make the Bulls shoot better, but Skiles won't either. So really what's the difference? Skiles is a good coach: I don't even mind his media mindgames with his players, and actually find his comments refreshing, honest, and funny. But while I don't care about his words, I do care about his actions, namely playing time. In that regard he hasn't seemed to have progressed with his talent, and while I still think he's quality, he's replaceable.
Replaceable like any coach. It happens when teams are this far below expectations. Do that first, and players come next. The players are more to blame, and it's not quite fair, sure, but it's not as if there's a zero-sum blame equation, and so just because the players are bad doesn't mean that Skiles isn't also bad. And it's easier to let him go first.
0 recs |
148
comments
Comments
I keep thinking to myself
I think of how many intern coaches make the season actually better. Would that symbolize giving up on the season?
I also think of whether Paxson would rather make a trade first to see how Skiles would handle whatever new player the Bulls were to get. Maybe he figures he owes it to Skiles to give him that go to guy needed to win.
by Option27 on Nov 25, 2007 11:14 PM CST 0 recs
I suppose
But it is good to know that Nocioni is playing pretty well, and is eligible to be dealt 12/15. Between that and expiring contracts it's conceiveable that Pax gets someone good enough to transcend Skiles' rotation issues.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 25, 2007 11:18 PM CST
up
0 recs
But that's the thing
Obviously, there are a certain amout of players (superstars) out there that want to come and play for Chicago. That being said, they know playing in Chicago means being coached by Skiles.
Who's to say the attraction to Chicago will still be there once Skiles is replaced. You may say this is irrelevant but it's not because as much as we all regret the Wallace signing today, I believe Wallace also factored in being coached by a defensive minded coach and a man a lot of people respect around the league like Skiles.
by Option27 on
Nov 25, 2007 11:30 PM CST
up
0 recs
Eh?
I like the idea of the coaching change now. It would give the Bulls a chance to possibly hire someone mid-season (oh, the trouble Tyrus will have then!), but they'll at least be among the first to be able to go after one immediately after the season.
As I've said before, I'm just ready for a different offensive philosophy. Hinrich, Wallace, Smith and Nocioni are the only current "important" players that they need to stick with to win NOW. Smith doesn't matter, Wallace is irrelevant in offense (and will be gone in the next two years anyway), Nocioni will chuck it no matter what and Hinrich, while showing deficiencies this year, seems smart enough and capable enough to be able to adapt (and who knows how much longer he'll be around anyway).
I feel comfortable in stating that I don't think there are but a select few, if any, coaches out there that could have done more than slightly better with this team over the past four years. However, loyalty doesn't matter when you're trying to win.
They've replaced the me-first attitude with a team-oriented one that tries really hard and plays defense first (Paxson has done that as much as Skiles, though, I believe). Those players will still have that.
Who knows how much difference a coach change would make? As a fan who thinks a stagnation has occurred, though, a change would at least be renewed hope and further optimism. They can't be worse, and a chance at being better makes it the smart move.
The only player change I want to see is a backcourt change. Changing either Gordon or Hinrich (plus contracts) for a better player is the only obvious thing to me. The other guys are too young to give up on quite yet.
With my all-seeing pessimistic fan perspective, I see a coaching change during the season at about 30%, though. That sucks for me.
by tyger1147 on
Nov 26, 2007 12:21 AM CST
up
0 recs
Talk about jumping the gun...
Chicago fans need to hold there breath for a weak or so because if we go 2 of 3 at home and play the mavs hard, i think it will signal the rebound the team has been waiting for. If not, then we can talk NBA draft, trades, and skiles's head on a stick.
by T MaK on
Nov 26, 2007 3:50 PM CST
up
0 recs
Come on
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETzpRdC6WS8
by Big D on
Nov 26, 2007 9:57 PM CST
up
0 recs
They run a terrible offensive scheme
by RogersPark Kris on Nov 25, 2007 11:19 PM CST 0 recs
Don't agree
I say keep Skiles, and this "core" of this team for the year. Too many people are gung-ho with firings. If the Bulls haven't significantly improved when it matters (in the playoffs), then let the fire sale begin.
by NittanyBull on Nov 26, 2007 12:30 AM CST 0 recs
Unfortunately, ...
It does NOT look like they can reverse this any time soon.
by Diabolo on
Nov 26, 2007 2:06 AM CST
up
0 recs
How many games
by Blacknight23 on
Nov 26, 2007 8:51 AM CST
up
0 recs
another reason to make a quick
The way it's looking, signs seem to point to Noce being the Bulls most tradable asset. I would love to be able to use him to somehow pry Calderon away from the Raptors. Also, the next (first?) good game Hinrich has I'd be looking to move him, regardless of who's the coach. The Bulls need a point guard who is a point guard. The only reason Hinrich ever gets credited with an assist is that the next touch in line happens to hit his jump shot.
So those are the players I'd try to move first--Noce because he's playing well and has some present value, and Hinrich because he just plain sucks.
by alec on Nov 26, 2007 9:07 AM CST 0 recs
"the only reason...
Uhhh okkayyy...not that I'm defending Hinrich, but isn't that the way most assists happen??
by ScottieCartwright on
Nov 26, 2007 9:51 AM CST
up
0 recs
and everytime hinrich gets the ball to wallace
by bullshooter on
Nov 26, 2007 10:01 AM CST
up
0 recs
Scottie, what I'm trying to say here,
by alec on
Nov 26, 2007 10:11 AM CST
up
0 recs
ah ok
I was always taught, and have always heard the following: "don't pass to make a pass, pass to make a PLAY". As corny as that sounds, it's true.
I've never thought that Kirk was/is the ideal PG. I don't think he or the Bulls have thought that either. But for some reason, his deficiencies at the position are showing way more than ever this season.
But it's the whole team though. I feel like the passes everyone makes are just blind, no-direction-in-mind kinds of passes. Not enough do you see setup passes, where you can tell one teammate is setting up another.
by ScottieCartwright on
Nov 26, 2007 10:32 AM CST
up
0 recs
the real problem
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 10:39 AM CST
up
0 recs
I remember when people argued on here . . ,
by Big D on
Nov 26, 2007 11:19 AM CST
up
0 recs
ahem...
by bullshooter on
Nov 26, 2007 11:31 AM CST
up
0 recs
I agree...
by ScottieCartwright on
Nov 26, 2007 2:25 PM CST
up
0 recs
I was being facetious
Hinrich is more around top ten at his position, he's not as good as those guys. From what I read here, when people say 'real' or 'pure' point guard, they really mean 'I wish our PG was an MVP candidate'. Hinrich's not, and if you think that this team has to have an elite PG to win then it's a tall order.
Assuming he gets back to his normal level I don't see Hinrich as part of the problem. But until he does, yes it's a big reason this team sucks.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 2:34 PM CST
up
0 recs
I just wish for the latter
I know he's not as bas as he is currently playing, but he'll never be as good as Nash or Paul either...but he can be decent enough for the team to take the East.
And you're right, as much as I hate to say it and admit it, as Kirk goes, the team usually goes. Him playing so bad is a big reason they suck right now...(sigh)
by ScottieCartwright on
Nov 26, 2007 2:43 PM CST
up
0 recs
But Matt, name a starting point guard
http://www.insidehoops.com/depth-pacific.shtml
This puts Hinrich in the bottom 5 at his position. Not the top 10.
by bullhockey on
Nov 27, 2007 12:22 PM CST
up
0 recs
Depends on whether you are talking about
by wjb1492 on
Nov 27, 2007 6:27 PM CST
up
0 recs
Worthless moves
by NBA Observer on Nov 26, 2007 9:15 AM CST 0 recs
did you see taht he was
by alec on
Nov 26, 2007 9:17 AM CST
up
0 recs
I like the honeymoon game
by hscs on Nov 26, 2007 9:26 AM CST 0 recs
How much of this blame falls on Paxson...
Certainly, this is a business, and it is the man's job to take care of player personnel moves in order to make the team better. But, as I wrote at Taking it to the Rack in the season's first week, this is a young roster with just two rotation regulars (Smith and Wallace) above the age of 27. Most of the young core has never played for another NBA team (Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon, Nocioni, Thomas, Sefolosha). While they may be big boys in big business, they aren't grizzled veterans, and it is certainly easy to see how the constant rumors swirling over several of them could have been a major distraction at season's start that led to a lot of tentative play. Once you fall into that rut, it can be hard to get out of.
While Pax's job is to make the team better, he had what certainly appeared (and still appears) to be a very solid young core that looked like it was only going to improve with time. In the eyes of many, he didn't NEED to bring in the likes of a Bryant, but once he officially went after him (which he did publicly enough), he likely needed to make a move of some sort simply to calm the nerves of his players, who in some regards may still be waiting for that proverbial other shoe to drop. He can say all he wants to that trade talks are over, but the fact is that it's a company line that likely won't be believed until February and then likely revisited again in the summer.
I wondered in the initial column whether or not once the Kobe talks broke down, Pax should have looked to make a small, largely inconsequential move just to make the "There, I made my move, now I'm done" gesture to his players and coach. Perhaps it would have provided a bit more security for them and allowed them to go out and just play the game at ease.
With all that in mind, it seems to me that Matt's suggestion to fire Skiles makes more sense than ever. It would in effect be that "shake things up" move that would allow the players to loosen up -- at least for a time -- as they had their shot to once again prove their worth as a unit under a new coach. It makes sense right now because there is still ample time to salvage this season, and it makes sense right now because if my theory about the psyches of the players has any merit to it, this type of move may help correct it without having to make any sort of trivial personnel move simply for the sake of making a move.
Perhaps I'm reading much too far into the issue of what Paxson's negotiating with the Lakers (and his failure to lock up Deng and Gordon) long term did to this team to start the season. But I figure it's worth a thought. I'd be curious to hear some thoughts on this.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on Nov 26, 2007 9:28 AM CST 0 recs
And I'm an idiot
I would still further expound it to say that ultimately, this theory only makes the firing of Skiles a more viable idea. Whether or not it's fair for Skiles to be the only fall guy for a problem that may be rooted in a fault of Paxson's -- who I believe did need to pull the trigger after the Kobe talks got as close as they did -- is up for debate, but that's the game (and the business) for you.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on
Nov 26, 2007 9:40 AM CST
up
0 recs
Thanks, Steve
by bullhockey on
Nov 27, 2007 12:23 PM CST
up
0 recs
Firing Skiles
must be resolved before this team is ready for its preseason hype.
1) Hinrich, the leader, and the total guard play is unacceptable.
They are too small, and can't score, dish effectively, slash or finish at the basket.
The court leadership and awareness is very low, and its bad when Duhon is the best PG and Gardner looks
good. Thabo is probably on the "bust" radar.
OnCurry is another combination clone of part Hinrich and part Gordon and also too small.
Paxson appears to like similiar players.
2) Wallace, Tyrus and Noah are basically the same type of players, one of theses clones is expendable,
and hopefully for a scorer.
Unfortunately, the above two issues aren't easy fixes, but still a goal and target.
by exult463 on Nov 26, 2007 9:48 AM CST 0 recs
Problem with #2
by NBA Observer on
Nov 26, 2007 11:52 AM CST
up
0 recs
On Point 1
2) Wallace doesn't get near enough credit around here for what Observer points out. Even if he doesn't seem his old self (just old?) currently, I say Bulls would still be hard pressed to find someone better to lead the team vs Shaq, Howard, Garnett...Problem being, most of the time he's out there, the opponent isn't that substantial post threat, and everyone notices how it's 4 on 5 on offense. If TT and Noah set the same screens and play on man as well, then they're clones with better offensive (Noah? Not yet) capabilities.
Given the two small guards and the smallish Wallace, it' amazing the defense is as good as it is. And equally so that the offense was okay/"not sick" last year. These are the two major personnel issues for the team, and remain for whoever is coach.
by marionette on
Nov 26, 2007 3:11 PM CST
up
0 recs
After the weekend carnage I want some hope
Use the year to better get a feel for what we have or don't have. Let's throw in the towel and go with Noah, TT and Grey. That would guarantee a lottery pick. Maybe we get lucky and pick up Hibbert, Thabeet, etc. and we get lucky again and the pick turns out to be a ligitimate low post threat. This makes us a contender with our present group. We can make a decision after the draft if we have the right coach. Playing Noah, TT and Grey is risky and painful, but it increases the liklihood of a lottery pick and hope. We don't get there with this present group.
by chgobr on Nov 26, 2007 9:53 AM CST 0 recs
Oh yea
by Sambossanova on
Nov 26, 2007 3:12 PM CST
up
0 recs
It's not about the mindset.
While I generally agree with you that the Bulls have some talent in their core, the problem is they also have some deficiencies in their core...and the real problem is that all their deficiencies tend to line-up with each other, rather than compensate for each other.
For example, in this Bulls line-up--Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Thomas and Wallace--what stands out at 4 of the 5 positions? Everyone is too small. Only Deng matches up, size-wise, with the players he has to defend.
The Bulls roster, though talented, is completely unbalanced. Other teams in this league are smart enough to figure out ways to exploit opponent's deficiencies. There are a number of things they can do with the roster as presently constituted...but going smaller, which Skiles did by starting Griffin, is not the way.
by alec on Nov 26, 2007 9:56 AM CST 0 recs
I'm convinced
I agree that going smaller is a bad idea, but that's mostly because the smaller players aren't just smaller but not as good.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 10:06 AM CST
up
0 recs
Last year may be an aberation
by chgobr on
Nov 26, 2007 10:14 AM CST
up
0 recs
Well then what about the two years before that?
3 years of being #1 or #2 in defensive field goal percentage is no aberration.
The question is (as mentioned in other posts) how the team could have regressed almost to a man in team defense.
Part of it is Ben Wallace showing his age, so that one ankle sprain and he looks like Luke Ridnour on a lot of plays on defense.
Part of it is the uptick in talent assembled by other teams' GM's (such as what Colangelo is building in Toronto, or the influx of high draft picks in Atlanta, or the fact that Milwaukee is healthy this year after being injury-riddled last).
And part of it is poisonous team chemistry that was once golden.
by bullhockey on
Nov 27, 2007 12:29 PM CST
up
0 recs
It can always get worse
For the entirety of his tenure here, most folks have argued this team was "more than the sum of its parts". Well, isn't that as much on coaching as the current mess?
I'm not arguing Skiles is without flaw, or that he's the right coach in the long run, but I neither see anyone obviously better nor have a lot of confidence in Paxson (who hasn't exactly set the world on fire with his decision-making the last couple of years) to pick the right guy.
It's quite possible that if we fire him the team simply becomes "equal to the sum of its parts" and fairly mediocre.
by Sports2 on Nov 26, 2007 10:08 AM CST 0 recs
firing Skiles
I've appreciated Skiles the past few seasons not from a defensive standpoint, but from an offensive one. I really dont think theres any other coach in the league that could come up with an offense to get this team of jump shooters to score enough points to give their defense a chance to win it for them. And therefore I don't think firing him will accomplish anything except perhaps an even more painful offense to watch.
Really the problem is personnel. I think at this point we've got to consider making an uneven trade in the other teams favor just to start fresh. Maybe the Grizzlies would take Deng, Hinrich and Noah for Gasol? Sure our team would have less talent but ast this point, I don't see us getting much more than that and this current team is not going to win it all.
by JSlakov on Nov 26, 2007 10:23 AM CST 0 recs
"would've lost the games anyway"
Like I said just because the talent is also to blame doesn't mean the coach is absolved.
Also I think there's something to be said about the coaching staff failing to developing these guys to not be just jumpshooters too.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 10:32 AM CST
up
0 recs
maybe
So fire Skiles sure, but make a trade too, kind of like the Bulls trading Jalen Rose around the same time they fired Cartwright. Getting us a multidimensional scorer and a real point guard would be nice. I wonder if the Grizz would part with Lowry since they have Conley too.
by JSlakov on
Nov 26, 2007 1:10 PM CST
up
0 recs
that rose trade
I wouldn't mind a trade, but unless you are rebuilding the only worthwhile player leaving will be your guy Nocioni. I don't think trading the underperforming youth is a good idea at all.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 1:19 PM CST
up
0 recs
How about
::cough "Gordon" cough::
by Option27 on
Nov 26, 2007 2:11 PM CST
up
0 recs
well there's some that think he's underpeformed
He's underperformed for 12 games, and 'historically' (to use a Skiles term) is the best offensive player on the team. So, since this team is already an absymal offense, I wouldn't deal him.
and 'undersized'. cripes, can we stop saying that for 24 hours? If he plays well it doesn't matter if he's short.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 2:15 PM CST
up
0 recs
Dealing Gordon
How about Gordon and Hinrich for Igoudala and Andre Miller? Maybe Billy King can read Zeke's "Notes to be a successful GM" book.
by NBA Observer on
Nov 26, 2007 2:44 PM CST
up
0 recs
Not a bad idea
I still don't like the idea of trading Hinrich and Gordon when they're both playing awful. But in reality GMs are likely perceptive enough to know it's only 12 games. (maybe, this is the NBA after all)
I'd be careful with Miller, he's having his worst season and is 31. And he's not a good outside shooter, which is a red flag for a bad decline as he gets older. Iggy can't shoot that well either for that matter. So at least we wouldn't be a jumpshooting team anymore! And we'd be tall!
(I guess it all comes down to how good you think Iguodala will be long-term)
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 2:54 PM CST
up
0 recs
Sixers and Bulls
In the 2004 draft I wanted Chicago to take Igoudala. Deng has turned out to be a good player and I wonder if Igoudala and Deng could play on the floor together and mesh.
by NBA Observer on
Nov 26, 2007 3:09 PM CST
up
0 recs
well
And I think trading Deng or Gordon for a different type of player isnt really rebuilding.
by JSlakov on
Nov 26, 2007 7:48 PM CST
up
0 recs
Skiles hasn't helped
by hscs on
Nov 26, 2007 10:33 AM CST
up
0 recs
Normally, I would disagree with you,
by alec on
Nov 26, 2007 10:47 AM CST
up
0 recs
The thing with making a huge trade like that
If there is other info out there I don't have - if Pax is pretty certain Deng or Gordon won't sign here, if it comes out that one guy on the team is killing chemistry, etc. - that changes things, of course. But I hate the idea of a trade based on "Bulls suck, so we need a trade even if they'll still suck afterwards."
by wjb1492 on
Nov 26, 2007 1:12 PM CST
up
0 recs
The Question is this . . .
by Option27 on Nov 26, 2007 10:29 AM CST 0 recs
forget about kobe.
by alec on
Nov 26, 2007 10:37 AM CST
up
0 recs
Since either Deng or BG will probably be gone
by bullshooter on
Nov 26, 2007 11:29 AM CST
up
0 recs
yea
by Sambossanova on
Nov 26, 2007 3:17 PM CST
up
0 recs
If the Bulls get to .500 in Jan, the season's fine
Twelve games is too soon for change.
Let's talk at thirty.
by preverbal on Nov 26, 2007 10:53 AM CST 0 recs
Who would we hire?
by haze on Nov 26, 2007 11:02 AM CST 0 recs
dunno.
But offseason? you're right, a lot of the available guys (VanGundy, Carlisle, Dwayne Casey) aren't known for offense.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Nov 26, 2007 11:07 AM CST
up
0 recs
The low point of the Post Jordan era
by chgobr on Nov 26, 2007 11:10 AM CST 0 recs
Knicks loss sucked
the list of Bulls problems is long, but they should be better then what they are showing
Wallace - injured to start season, even when healthy he is no longer a force. When undersized like he is he has to rely on superior energey, strength, speed, jumping but those all get worse with age and pounding on body. Chandler needed to leave Bulls but Wallace is no longer piece to push Bulls to championship level, he's just a vet C that hopefully does enough that his lack of offense doesn't hurt too much (probably has not been case every game)
Thomas - for good or bad he needs to play, he can be the difference when he is energized and on his game. Of course he is going to make some mi


