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Mid-Season Review I: Ben Wallace

[From the Diaries. Just how bad has Ben Wallace been this year? I'd consider this to be a pretty nice salvage. -Matt]

I've been thinking about writing mid-season player reviews for awhile now.  I'll start with Ben Wallace because looking back through my passed diaries, I found this one from a little more than a year ago.  Last year at this time, Wallace had the worst plus/minus of any starter in the league.  I honestly had forgotten how bad Ben Wallace was prior to the All-Star break.  He wasn't great after the All-Star break either, but his FG% rose from 43.7% to 8.1% after the break, the team was winning nearly every game, his plus/minus improved, and he performed well against Shaq in the playoffs.  But after reading that diary again, I could remember just how frustrated I was with Wallace a year ago. (Especially because I never wanted him to begin with; signing Przybilla instead to split time at center with Chandler would have been my choice, but that probably would have turned into its own disaster).

Unfortunately the lack of lift that was Wallace's problem last year has been even worse this year.  He can't or simply doesn't jump very often anymore.  His ability to finish inside and his defensive rebounding have only further declined.  Over the last 5-10 games or so he's actually been trying to dunk the ball more, which has improved his FG% some, but it's not enough.  There also hasn't been a corresponding improvement on the defensive boards.  He's now grabbing 6% fewer defensive rebounds than his last year in Detroit (That's about 2 rebounds per game).  Two years ago he would have led the team in defensive rebounding by a wide margin.  Now he's the 4th or maybe the 5th best defensive rebounder on the team, behind Thomas, Noah, and Sefolosha (Thabo nearly matches Wallace's DReb%, while playing guard).  He would clearly be behind Nocioni as well if I didn't suspect that Nocioni got alot of his boards by jumping over his teammates' backs.  I wonder if Nocioni grabs a rebound by jumping over a teammate's back more times than Wallace lets the opposing center jump over his back for the offensive rebound?  Still, his play has really only significantly declined in two areas, finishing inside and defensive rebounding.  His offensive rebounding, turnovers, and steals haven't declined, and his blocks only declined only slightly this year.  However, his FG% and defensive rebounding have declined to the point that the things he still does well can no longer compensate for his deficiencies.

Last year Ben Wallace was an important to the team because the Bulls had no one on the roster that was better. Brown (-8), Sweetney (-3), and Allen (-4) were all significantly worse than a declining Wallace.  And if Wallace was simply playing up to last year's standard, he would still be holding his own.  Using individual Offensive and Defensive rating and adjusting for usage, Wallace was plus 2 points per 100 possessions last year.  This year Wallace is negative 12 points per 100 possessions.  Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng also are all still at least 10 points worse than last season, but unlike those players Wallace has little hope of recovering and is easily replaced by other players on the roster.  This year the team has the players to replace Wallace.  Noah (+0), Thomas (-3), and Smith (+7) are all playing significantly better than Wallace (-12) this year and could easily absorb his minutes.  A trade that simply got rid of his salary wouldn't hurt the team at all this year, and would have the long term benefit of development time for Thomas and Noah.  He's simply addition by subtraction at this point.

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THank God
I was afraid a look at the stats would tells us that, contrary to what we've all felt, BW was actually doing a very good job, firing the daily "do stats matter more than what my eyes tell me" debate, which is even more boring that watching BW not jump.

I'd love this mid-season evals if you have the time!

by Freethefro on Feb 10, 2008 9:36 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

great analysis
Let's just hope the rest of the league doesn't know this also.
vanillablue.wordpress.com

by vanillablue on Feb 10, 2008 11:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Sbulls
I got the feeling that he's been slightly less ghastly lately.  Any evidence to that point?
Interest Level = Wins - Losses + 2*Tyrus Time + 1.5*(Thabo + Noah Time) - .4*Bricked layups + 3*Red Kerr Candies

by cubbybear on Feb 10, 2008 12:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

He has on the offensive end.
Shooting 65.8% in the paint over the last 10 games compared to 44.9% for the season.  So you can believe that's he finally trying or that he found the fountain of youth if you want.  Like I said, his FG% went up 5% after the A-S break last year as well.  But the defensive rebounding numbers haven't improved over the last ten games, and they didn't after the A-S break last year either.  

by Scotter on Feb 10, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Really reaching
But isn't the presence of better rebounding players around him (Noah, Tyrus, Thabo) and him playing 4 instead of 5, affecting his rebounding rate?  It's a  problem with rebounding %.

Good to see him shooting better in the paint.  I hated that earlier this year.

Interest Level = Wins - Losses + 2*Tyrus Time + 1.5*(Thabo + Noah Time) - .4*Bricked layups + 3*Red Kerr Candies

by cubbybear on Feb 10, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not really
Players don't effect each other's rebound rate as much as you might think.  For example, Thabo grabs about 7-8% more def rebounds than the other guards, which translates into the team rebounding 5% better with Thabo on the court.  Wallace does rebound a little better overall when playing with weak rebounding Joe Smith.  But, the gap between Joe Smith and Tyrus/Noah is only around 4%.  And Wallace has played roughly over half his minutes with Joe Smith or Andres Nocioni at PF and his defensive rebound rate has still declined this year.  But, if you want to feel better about Wallace, the team still does defensive rebound 3% better with Wallace on the court.  And I just won't tell you why Wallace isn't primarily responsible for that 3%.  

by Scotter on Feb 10, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well explained.
He's gotta go.  If not to another team, to the seat next to Demetrius Nichols.
Interest Level = Wins - Losses + 2*Tyrus Time + 1.5*(Thabo + Noah Time) - .4*Bricked layups + 3*Red Kerr Candies

by cubbybear on Feb 10, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

excellent job as always
Do you know if there's a stat out there that shows trends of veterans like BW playing better or worse generally as teams turn down the stretch?  100 or so games is a long season, and I wonder if "conserving energy" isn't a rationalization for dogging it a little, intentionally or not.

by California Al on Feb 11, 2008 7:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

in fairness to Big Ben
It was Paxson's & Skiles' job to know what kind of fit he'd be to the team, not Ben's. He needed to be next to a quality big--he seened to like playing alongside PJ Brown the best, and it's been mostly skinny 6'9" guys since then. They also couldn't have him roam defensively as much (which is how he built much of his defensive player of the year rep). And the team's offensive sets really favor a big who can pick & pop. It's painful to see how many times they've given him the ball in situations not ideal for him--it's almost cruel.

He's definitely lost a step or two, but he also just looks like a zombie out there sometimes. Some fans have called it laziness or disinterest, but maybe he's demoralized. He's a moody guy who's never really fit in here, and I'm sure the team's struggles, his diminishing ability, and the embarrassment that the whole league knows his leaving Detroit was a mistake, has been tough for him. If he was traded to a better, veteran team that could use him more wisely, he might show a little more lift in his legs and a little more intensity & enthusiasm. It's too bad.

Just my fuzzier, "soft" interpretation to add to statistical analysis!

by T Maple on Feb 10, 2008 7:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wallace still roams
His mini-zone is pretty annoying to watch, and it's his job to maximize what he has left instead of reliving the glory roaming and dunking days.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 10, 2008 7:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

umm
How do you explain Wallace missing (or more often not taking) shots within 3 feet of the hoop?  He was never an offensive wizard, but his offense since getting to the Bulls has become comical.

As for being demoralized, he can wipe his tears with $60 million.

Ben Wallace sucks and should sit at the end of the bench.  Skiles' and Boylan's kowtowing to this loser is mind-boggling.  Noah should play the lion's share of minutes.  Ben should play 20 minutes a night tops.

by Stay Chisel on Feb 10, 2008 9:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

We can't necessarily say it was Wallace's job to know how he'd fit in, but now that everyone can see he DOESN'T fit in, we can say it's his job to do what he can to help.  Including coming off the bench, if needed.  His pouting and lack of interest, while still demanding minutes, are hurting the team and making him harder to trade.

I wouldn't blame personally him for the big contract and diminished skills, if only would just shut up and do what he can to help.

by Bayern Munich on Feb 11, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Redundancies
Noah, Ty Ty, and Gray are playing better, and Ben needs to ride out. Thanks for the memories Ben, now take your non layup making self to Utah.

by chicagodogg79 on Feb 10, 2008 8:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I see BW being most intresting to 3 teams.
1. Houston 2.Utah 3.and NO but the problem is that i dont know what those teams would give up to get him.I dont know if New York is dumb enough to do that trade that was discussed but if they do maybe we can get them to throw in another 1st round draft pick.

by eross226 on Feb 10, 2008 9:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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