ESPN's Mock Draft Lottery

by RingItUp26 on Apr 17, 2007 10:39 AM CDT

I was playing with this ESPN lottery feature, looking at where the Bulls could draft and who they could possibly take. Currently, the Knicks have the eighth worst record. Before I started playing with the mock lottery, I thought it worked like this. The Bulls have the chance to get into the top 3 picks, and the probability of landing the 3rd pick is higher than landing the 1st pick. If the Bulls are not picked in the top 3, they move all the way down to 8, unless they are really unlucky, and 3 teams with better records are picked 1-2-3, and the Bulls move down to 11. Essentially, the Bulls can have picks 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11. Isn't this right?

The ESPN mock lottery has the Bulls moving up to 6 and 7 sometimes. So, can the Bulls pick anywhere basically from 1-11, if the Knicks remain the 8th worst team?

There are two other teams, Portland and Minnesota, that are tied with the Knicks for the 8th worst record. Do they position these teams in the lottery based on conference record? How does this work?

Some of the players this mock lottery has the Bulls choosing include: Brandan Wright (most number of times), Spencer Hawes, Yi Jianlian, Al Horford, and once each for Kevin Durant and Greg Oden.

Also, I just noticed, for you Suns fans out there like me, that Phoenix has Atlanta's pick and would pick 4th based on records.

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Comments

This is all news to me

Thanks for posting!

chgobr

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Apr 17, 2007 10:48 AM CDT reply actions

Now I feel bad

I'm not mocking you, chgobr, just the diary!

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Apr 17, 2007 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions

I appreciate your empathy

Any Bulls fan is a friend of mine! Even better if you hate the Knicks!

Beat the Knicks

by chgobr on Apr 17, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Warm fuzzy's all around

Go Bobcats!

by bullshooter on Apr 17, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

I think we are going to need a new diary

for the Bobcat - Knick game.

Beat the Knicks

by chgobr on Apr 17, 2007 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Bulls got the first pick

The first time I hit the Play Lottery button. Oden would look great in Bulls red.

by paxson43 on Apr 17, 2007 10:56 AM CDT reply actions

I don't think #6 is possible

Unless the Knicks are the 6th worst or worse. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see how that could work. I tried it and came up with #7, too.

Watch your head, Tyrus!

by cubbybear on Apr 17, 2007 10:57 AM CDT reply actions

Yes it is, possible 5th spot

If Charlotte beats the Knicks, the Knicks are tied for the 6th worst record. If Seattle wins along with the Knicks losing the Knicks tie for the 5th worst record. If Knicks lose, Portland wins, Wolves win; Knicks sit alone in the 6th spot.

Is it me or does Lebron walk like a duck?!

by GranvilleWaiters on Apr 17, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

Not quite

They'd still be tied with the Sonics. They'd share the balls for the lottery and then flip a coin for the spot if neither the Sonics or the Knicks pick wins the lottery.

by bullshooter on Apr 17, 2007 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Sort of

Bulls are tied for 6th worst record, not eighth. So they can pick 1-3, 6-8 depending on a coin flip I believe, or 9-11 in a worst case scenario.

by bullshooter on Apr 17, 2007 10:57 AM CDT reply actions

6th worst record has a decent shot at the top thre

That's pretty good, top 3 in a great draft.

Watch your head, Tyrus!

by cubbybear on Apr 17, 2007 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Where have you been?

If teams tie record wise they split the %. They have an equal amount of lottery balls. They don't go according to conference records like they do for the playoffs.
As far as the Suns/Hawks Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw trade. The Suns get the pick if the Hawks don't land in the top 3. It is conditional.

Is it me or does Lebron walk like a duck?!

by GranvilleWaiters on Apr 17, 2007 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

Just needed somewhere to post this.

by tyger1147 on Apr 17, 2007 11:08 AM CDT reply actions

Best part is

I won't really give a shit about that awful team they got in NY next year.

AIM screen name : Option27

by Option27 on Apr 17, 2007 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions

What a poor, poor girl.

Once, when having sex in a tractor trailer, some of Andre the Giants' sperm got into the engine. We now know that tractor as Optimus Prime.

by NittanyBull on Apr 17, 2007 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions

I hate to say it

But she'd be better off being a Nets fan, even. They will have a new stadium, hip-hop owners and a chance of becoming decent again. New York is still paying Starks $10mil, I think.

Watch your head, Tyrus!

by cubbybear on Apr 17, 2007 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm not sure that's a girl

Okay, I admit it: Tyrus Thomas could dunk on me.

by preverbal on Apr 17, 2007 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

maybe it's

one of isiah's illegitmate children sending a message to mardy collins

by milesgmsu on Apr 17, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

First time I played the new version on ESPN, the

Bulls got the number one pick and chose Oden.

Utterly and completely meaningless, of course.

However, getting Oden would be the most exciting thing to happen around here since Jordan killed the Mailman. (I can't believe that was almost a ten years ago!)

We would definitely win at least one championship in the next decade.

It's all luck, though.

by 1958ChiTown on Apr 17, 2007 11:53 AM CDT reply actions

ONE?!

I don't know if it's the fan in me talking, but I would think the Bulls would win maybe 3 or more if they got Oden

AIM screen name : Option27

by Option27 on Apr 17, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions

No way

They'd win 10 in the next decade.

by paxson43 on Apr 17, 2007 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm thinking of a MINIMUM

8-peat.

Anyone who recognizes that quote gets a dollar.

Once, when having sex in a tractor trailer, some of Andre the Giants' sperm got into the engine. We now know that tractor as Optimus Prime.

by NittanyBull on Apr 17, 2007 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions

But what if the Hurricane's name...

...was 'Hurricane Ditka?'

SUPERFANS.

In Pax we Trust!

by Jobu on Apr 17, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

mini

Don't forget about mini ditka.

by Jesse07 on Apr 17, 2007 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Haha vei niiice.

Once, when having sex in a tractor trailer, some of Andre the Giants' sperm got into the engine. We now know that tractor as Optimus Prime.

by NittanyBull on Apr 17, 2007 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions

lottery works like this

lottery is on may 22nd

beforehand, if teams are tied with the same record, they do a coinflip to determine who goes higher or lower (not sure how they do it wiht three, maybe a dice or something). ESPN has the shared percentages for sake of ease...

They only draw numbers for the top 3 picks...the rest goes by ascending order. A team can only lose three spots max, and the odds of this are unlikley if you're in the middle of the pack. So if the knicks end up tied with 2 other teams for the 6th record we will be eligble for

1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11 picks

Here's a site with hopefully updating % odds of each pick....credit truehoop

http://mybasketballdepartment.blogspot.com/

by milesgmsu on Apr 17, 2007 2:29 PM CDT reply actions