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McDermott Comparisons: Chandler Parsons, Danny Green, Michael Redd, Chase Budinger

I think I've made it through the seven stages to acceptance. My initial reactions to the selection of Doug McDermott were very similar to many on BaB -- why trade two top 20 picks for a limited-upside guy while not saving cap space? Especially after seeing who the Nuggets ended up drafting with our two picks. Argh.

But after reading this morning's posts about the newest Bull, I realized that I actually had no idea how his athletic markers compared to the players most often mentioned as his doppelgangers (i.e., Korver, Szczerbiak, etc.). Were there other, better comparisons? Were all of them white, or European? Is there any evidence of a player like McDermott (physically and athletically) being more than a role player?

So I spent some time perusing Draft Express's database of athletic measurements (which you can find here), a sortable list that goes back to 2000 (which means no data for Wally or guys like Peja). I looked for players who matched McDermott in some objective way -- standing reach, wingspan, vertical, jumping reach, agility or sprint tests, height, anything -- looking for the closest fits. I then put together a spreadsheet (which you can find below) of the comparisons I found most interesting, including guys with some markers significantly better or worse than McDermott's. Following the table are some conclusions I pulled from the data.

(McDermott is bolded an in all-caps in the middle of the table. I sorted by no-step vertical reach, which I think is the best proxy in this list of overall size and athleticism. Be sure to scroll to the right to see columns containing agility and sprint drills.)

Name No shoes shoes weight wing reach fat% NS vert NS vert reach max vert max vert reach bench agility sprint draftpick
Joe Johnson 6' 6.75" 6' 8.25" 226 6' 9" 8' 9" NA 32.5 11' 5.5" 36.5 11' 9.5" 12 12.05 3.4 10
Richard Jefferson 6' 7.25" 6' 8.5" 223 7' 0" 8' 7" NA 33 11' 4" 38.5 11' 9.5" 14 11.19 3.15 3
Carmelo Anthony 6' 6.25" 6' 7.5" 233 7' 0" 8' 9.5" 8 30.5 11' 4" 33.5 11' 7" 7 11.4 3.15 3
Tobias Harris 6' 6.5" 6' 7.75" 223 6' 11" 8' 7.5" 8.4 31.5 11' 3" 37.5 11' 9" 12 10.96 3.17 14
John Salmons 6' 5.5" 6' 7" 207 6' 10.25" 8' 8" NA 30.5 11' 2.5" 34.5 11' 6.5" 12 11.35 3.25 26
Chuck Hayes 6' 5.5" 6' 6.75" 232 6' 10" 8' 8.5" NA 30 11' 2.5" 33 11' 5.5" 20 10.7 3.34 no
Danny Granger 6' 7.5" 6' 8.5" 225 7' 1.5" 8' 7" NA 31 11' 2" 34 11' 5" 10 10.84 3.34 7
Josh Childress 6' 5.75" 6' 7.25" 196 6' 11" 8' 9" NA 29 11' 2" 36 11' 9" 11 11.95 3.38 6
Paul Millsap 6' 6.25" 6' 7.25" 258 7' 1.5" 8' 9.5" 9.7 28.5 11' 2" 32.5 11' 6" 15 11.67 3.3 47
Martell Webster 6' 6" 6' 7.5" 230 6' 11" 8' 10" NA 28 11' 2" 30.5 11' 4.5" 7 11.39 3.39 6
Corey Brewer 6' 6.75" 6' 7.75" 185 6' 8.25" 8' 7" 4.2 30.5 11' 1.5" 36.5 11' 7.5" 11 11.69 3.22 7
J.R. Smith 6' 5.5" 6' 6.75" 227 6' 10" 8' 8" NA 29 11' 1" 35.5 11' 7.5" 5 10.93 3.21 18
Danny Green 6' 5.25" 6' 6.5" 208 6' 10" 8' 7" 5.6 29 11' 00" 33 11' 4" 15 11.3 3.3 46
Solomon Hill 6' 5.5" 6' 7" 226 6' 9" 8' 7" 7.6 29.5 11' 0.5" 37.5 11' 8.5" 14 10.77 3.26 23
Demar Derozan 6' 5.5" 6' 6.5" 211 6' 9" 8' 6.5" 4.9 29 10' 11.5" 38.5 11' 9" 5 11.88 3.31 9
DOUG McDERMOTT 6' 6.25" 6' 7.75" 218 6' 9.25" 8' 7" 7.1 28.5 10' 11.5" 36.5 11' 7.5" NA 11.1 3.29 11
Kawhi Leonard 6' 6" 6' 7" 227 7' 3" 8' 10" 5.4 25.5 10' 11.5" 32 11' 6" 3 11.45 3.15 11
Chandler Parsons 6' 8.75" 6' 9.75" 221 6' 9.5" 8' 8.5" 7 25.5 10' 11.5" 31.5 11' 4" 4 11.05 3.29 56
Hollis Thompson 6' 6.75" 6' 8" 206 6' 9.5" 8' 6.5" 6 28.5 10' 11" 36.5 11' 7" 6 11.72 3.38 no
Khris Middleton 6' 6.75" 6' 8.25" 216 6' 10.75" 8' 7" 7.8 28 10' 11" 31 11' 2" 4 11.45 3.47 39
Evan Turner 6' 5.75" 6' 7" 214 6' 8" 8' 7.5" 8.6 27.5 10' 11" 34.5 11' 6" 9 11.06 3.27 2
Mike Scott 6' 7.25" 6' 8.75" 241 6' 10.75" 8' 8" 10.6 27 10' 11" 32.5 11' 4.5" 14 11.59 3.44 43
Chase Budinger 6' 6.25" 6' 7" 206 6' 7" 8' 5" 10 29.5 10' 10.5" 38.5 11' 7.5" 10 11.08 3.24 24
Evan Fournier 6' 5.75" 6' 7" 204 6' 8.25" 8' 6.5" NA 28 10' 10.5" 31.5 11' 2" NA 11.42 3.42 20
Caron Butler 6' 5.25" 6' 6.5" 222 6' 11.5" 8' 7.5" NA 27 10' 10.5" 31 11' 2.5" 2 12.15 3.33 10
Adam Morrison 6' 6.5" 6' 7.75" 198 6' 10" 8' 9" 6.8 25.5 10' 10.5" 30.5 11' 3.5" 11 11.46 3.37 3
Mike Dunleavy 6' 8" 6' 9.5" 230 6' 9" 8' 10" NA 24.5 10' 10.5" 29 11' 3" 11 11.55 3.3 3
Jared Dudley 6' 5.75" 6' 7.25" 219 6' 7" 8' 6" 7.1 28 10' 10" 32 11' 2" 14 11.32 3.45 22
Michael Redd 6' 4.75" 6' 5.75" 214 6' 9" 8' 6" NA 27 10' 9" 31 11' 1" 12 12.06 3.34 43
Kyle Korver 6' 6.25" 6' 7.75" 211 6' 9.5" 8' 6.5" 6.7 25.5 10' 8" 31.5 11' 2" 13 11.42 3.47 51
Steve Novak 6' 8" 6' 9.25" 216 6' 9.5" 8' 7" 8.1 24.5 10' 7.5" 31 11' 2" 5 11.11 3.37 32
Jason Kapono 6' 6.5" 6' 8" 215 6' 6.5" 8' 6" 11.7 23.5 10' 5.5" 30 11' 0" 8 11.04 3.38 31

McDermott's Not a Power Forward, But He Can Maybe Play There a Little

There were almost no power forwards who got close to Dougie's measureables. Almost all were 20-40 pounds heavier with wingspans over 7' 0", regardless of height (and most were taller). The only power forwards I saw fit to include in the list were Chuck Hayes, Mike Scott, and Paul Millsap.

Millsap is longer, but he's exactly the same height as McDermott with the same standing vertical and sprint test (Doug was actually quicker in the lane agility test and his max vertical was higher). Hayes is a bit shorter but with the same wingspan, although he was quite a bit quicker in the lane agility than Doug and had a better standing vertical. Mike Scott is a bit bigger all around (height and wingspan), but worse on all of the athletic markers. All three were significantly heavier than McBuckets.

Which is all to say that if Doug can put on about 20 pounds of muscle in the next few years, he won't be horribly overmatched on defense as a power forward. All three players mentioned above are solid defenders. Doug won't block shots like Millsap because he doesn't have those extra inches of reach, and he might not be able to draw charges like Chuck Hayes, but he's a better athlete than Mike Scott right now. With the added pounds, I see him being as effective as Scott in post defense, as the added weight will probably bring his quickness and jumping down to Scott's level.

Most of Doug's Comps Are Definitely Wings

Small forwards and large shooting guards were by far the closest athletic comps to McDermott, which should allay some fears as to whether he can hang defensively on the wing. For instance, all of McDermott's athletic markers were notably better than Caron Butler's (except for wingspan). Combine measurements of course don't determine the development of a player, and maybe Tuff Juice had a rough day when he got measured. But considering that McDermott also compares favorably to guys like Danny Green and Corey Brewer, I certainly feel much better about his potential to at least be average on defense.

Doug's Max Vertical Might Be a Fluke, But It Doesn't Matter

Among his comparable players, Doug had one of the biggest gaps between his standing and max verticals -- a full 8 inches. Players with his standing vertical tended to have a max vertical in the 32-33 range, not 36.5. On the other hand, there were a few other players who had large gaps, the biggest being for DeMar Derozan, whose standing vertical of 29 is only half an inch more than McDermott's and whose max vertical was 38.5.

The point, however, is that even if McDermott jumps more like Jared Dudley, Caron Butler, or Evan Turner rather than Derozan, Joe Johnson, or Tobias Harris, it really doesn't matter that much -- he still has the markers of a starting wing.

Doug Is Not Kyle Korver

Lot's of people have said this, but it's nice to see pretty clear evidence that, even beyond a difference in scoring skills (where McDermott has the edge), Doug is significantly more athletic than Hot Sauce. They're almost exactly the same size, but Doug is the more explosive jumper (both standing and running), quicker in the lane, and faster in the sprint.

Worst-Case Comp: Chase Budinger

Chase and Doug are very similar in size and athleticism. Chase is the better jumper but has shorter arms, which means their jumping reach is almost identical. Budinger also spent significant time in college, coming out as a junior, and was a very good shooter while he was there (though not quite on McDermott's level and at nowhere near the usage).

Budinger has averaged right around 9 points in 22 minutes per game on a lower field goal percentage than his college stats suggested, while shooting about half of his attempts from three. He's been about average on defense, not contributing much but not being a huge liability, either.

Considering Doug's far superior college career and his significantly better shooting track record, I'd expect him to be more useful than Budinger.

Realistic Comps: Chandler Parsons and Danny Green

Neither is a perfect physical comp, but both are pretty close. Green is shorter but a little bit longer and very close on athletic markers; Parsons is a couple of inches taller but a worse jumper. Both spent all four years in college, like McDermott, and were quality shooters (but, again, not with the usage or efficiency Doug displayed).

There are other ways in which the comparison isn't perfect. Green averaged over a block and a steal a game in his last two years of college. Parsons has always shown a bit more passing skill than McDermott and averaged around a steal a game in college, while also being a much worse free-throw shooter.

I like the comparison to both, however, considering their current roles in the NBA. McDermott won't be as good on defense as Green nor as good a ball handler as Parsons, but on offense he figures to be just as deadly from range as Green -- Green's career three point percentage is .421. Plus, Parsons and Green both have usage rates in the mid- to high teens, with Parsons averaging a couple more points per-36 -- around 16 for Parsons to Green's 14.

I could easily see McDermott having the efficiency of Green with Parsons-level defense and scoring averages.

Upside Comp: Michael Redd

I was hoping to find some athletically comparable players to McDermott who were more than just role players. While most star-level (or borderline star-level) players in the comparison chart above have very clear athletic advantages (Carmelo, Granger, Joe Johnson), there's one that I had not previously considered as a comp: Michael Redd.

Just like with Green and Parsons, the comparison is not perfect. Redd averaged more steals and assists than Doug in college, and was more obviously a shooting guard. Yet while McDermott is taller by a couple of inches, his wingspan and weight are very similar, and here's the best part: Doug's seemingly more athletic than Redd, with better results in every single measurement. McDermott is also the better shooter at this stage of his career, as Redd never averaged over 35% from three in school and shot poorly on free throws.

I like the comparison, however, because Redd was also a high scoring, high usage player in his college days with comparable size and athleticism to McBuckets, which translated almost immediately to the NBA. Redd was trapped behind Ray Allen during his first year, but once Redd got playing time, he was an immediate scorer, averaging 19-21 points per-36 in his first four years in the rotation while shooting over .400 from three in his first two years.

Conclusion

Wouldn't it be awesome if McBuckets turns into a slightly taller, more athletic version of Michael Redd? I'm not sure where I'd put the odds of that happening, but I feel like it's not a long-shot possibility. More likely -- at least for the next few years -- is that he's a role player in the mold of Green or Parsons. But if he settles eventually somewhere between Parsons and Redd as an adequate wing defender (hopefully better than Redd in that regard, at least) who gets you 17-18 points per-36 in a highly efficient way, I think that's certainly worth trading up for.

Only time will tell, but I'm slightly more optimistic now than I was last night.

(Bonus Out-There Comp: Steph Curry)

Since nobody Doug's size other than Korver shot nearly as well as him, I thought I'd see how McBuckets compared to other talented college shooters. Of course Doug doesn't play point guard and is much bigger than Steph, but the comparison isn't bad beyond that:

Curry: 29.5 standing vertical, 35.5 max vertical, 11.07 agility test, 3.28 sprint test. Approx. .47/.40/.87 shooting %s in college at high usage.

McDermott: 28.5 standing vertical, 36.5 max vertical, 11.1 agility test, 3.29 sprint test. Approx. .53/.45/.85 shooting %x in college at high usage.

FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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