On why Melo is not going to Miami (or how it will be one of the most ridiculous things to ever happen)

So, there has been a lot of talk about 'Melo going to Miami lately, specially from our friend STEPHEN A. SMITH. Having relocated to South Florida, I had to hear some Heat "fans" bragging about how having Melo would make them unstoppable. The truth is, having Melo in the Heat involves a lot fo sacrifices - not only for the Big 3 (4?) but to other people in the team.

Here is what needs to happen, by stages:

Clear Cap Space

- Trade Norris Cole for a 2nd rounder. There is no way anyone can be stupid to give a 1st for him, even a future one, so all the Heat can get is a 2nd rounder.

- Don't guarantee Justin Hamilton salary. Duh.

- Hope Birdman opts out of his player option to get a better offer from some other team (or the same one from the Heat). He can easily get a 2 year, 6-7 million deal right now, and after winning a 'ship, he might go for it. But, there is nothing about this the Heat can do.

- Trade their first rounder for two second rounders, one in this draft and one in the future.

- Renounce all players in the team.

Opt out

- Convince Haslem to opt out of his 4.6M (!) player option for next year, promising a longer multiyear deal with the team. Again, this does not depend on the Heat.

- Convince Bosh and Wade to opt out (LeBron is doing it anyways). Wade can make over 41M the next two years, so this will probably be the toughest task.

Negotiate salaries

With these moves, the Heat would have about 12M in salary cap holds. With a 63.2M cap, they would have about 59.5M to split amongs the four guys. Assuming they are not renouncing their current three:

- Sign Wade to a 5 year, 70 million deal (5th year Team Option). Wade is making 41M the next two years, so the deal has to be lucrative enough for him to accept it. This can be done by starting a shade below 13M.

- Sign Bosh to a 5 year, 75 million deal (5th year Team Option). A deal starting at 14M...maybe Bosh would go for it.

- Sign LeBron and Melo to a 4 year, 65 million deal (optout after two years). Starting at a shade above 15M.

- Sign Haslem to a 4 year, 10 million deal, starting at 2M. The only way to have him opt out.

In short, both Melo and LeBron would have to take about 10M less tha they could for the first two years. Bosh would take about 5M than if he didn't opt out while Wade and Haslem would sacrifice money in the short term for money in the long term.

Ziller has a more detailed article, but he assumes Cole stays and Haslem unexplicably leaves 4.6M on the table. But with any of the assumptions, it's really hard to see something like this happen.

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