First let me start this by making 2 things clear:
1) I would not be unhappy if we got Carmelo. He would undoubtedly make our team better, more fun to watch, and get us closer to a title than we have been for the last 3 years.
2) It's not that I just dislike Melo. I'm not a huge fan, but I don't buy the argument that he's selfish or not winner or any BS like that. The guy is an elite basketball player, period, and he could definitely win a championship on the right team.
My opinion about getting Carmelo entirely hinges on a different player; Derrick Rose.
I think that a Carmelo-Rose-Noah team can win an NBA title. However, assuming that we would probably lose either Jimmy, Taj or both in the process of getting Melo that type of team would put a huge amount of pressure on those 3 guys. We have seen this with all the other Big 3's, in order to assemble that amount of talent you have to empty the rest of your roster, which inevitably increases the burden on those 3 guys.
To me the success of that Bulls team would hinge the continued health of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. Unfortunately we have NO IDEA what we are getting when Rose comes back. It may be that he is one of the top 10 players in the NBA. It may be that he plays amazingly but only plays half the season each year. It may be that he is a Fringe All Star Level player. It could be worse.
The fact is we do not know. What we do know is that he should not play 40 minutes a game next season, and frankly neither should Noah. My worry is that in order to make our own big 3 like that work, all 3 of those guys would have to play big minutes and carry large parts of the offense. I am not sure that formula is what will get us a title, and what I definitely want to avoid is locking ourselves into a core that will not a win a title for the next 3-5 years.
If Rose came back and was even 75% of his prior self then I think that team could win the title, but that is assuming that all 3 of those guys stay healthy through the postseason. Is that a bet that we absolutely have to make?
Like I said if we get Melo I won't be disappointed or angry, I will be excited. But I will also be wary of what it could mean if that core doesn't turn out to be a title combination. I'm not sure what the other option would be except look to add younger players this offseason, see what we have from Rose this year, and look to future offseasons for that missing title piece. I understand the frustration of Bulls fans who are tired of "2014 plans". I just want to make sure that we as Bulls fans understand the risks and potential pitfalls of a Melo signing, if it were to happen.