2013 NBA Draft preview: Wings (part 2): Tim Hardaway Jr., Tony Snell, and more

USA TODAY Sports

Part 4 of TheMoon's draft preview. The first batch of Wings were profiled here. Centers were discussed here, and Power Forwards here.

1. TIM HARDAWAY JR. (Michigan), KHALIF WYATT (Temple) and MICHAEL SNAER (Florida State)

There is way to sugarcoat it: THJ is unusually poor at impacting the game physically. His STL+BLK numbers are the ninth worst out of nearly 150 NBA prospects over the last three years. His rate of drawing fouls is the fifth worst. He is the second worst offensive rebounding draft prospect of the last three years.

For all his reputation as an athlete, Hardaway has a very hard time showing it by doing athletic things on the court. His slashing, too, leaves a lot to be desired:

NAME

%Shots at Rim

%Ast'd at Rim

FTA/FGA

Tim Hardaway Jr.

21%

48%

0.21

Khalif Wyatt

21%

16%

0.49

Michael Snaer

25%

28%

0.39

Average Wing

31%

42%

0.38

In addition to his okay slashing ability, Wyatt adds the highest per40 assist numbers of any wing in the last three years. His per40 assist and AST/TOV numbers aren't quite point guard caliber, but they're close. His level of competition was not the highest, but Wyatt had a lot of big scoring games against the best competition this year:

  • 33 points on 17 shots against Syracuse
  • 26 points on 19 shots against Kansas
  • 24 points on 11 shots against Saint Louis
  • 22 points on 15 shots against Butler
  • 30 points on 18 shots against VCU
  • 31 points on 22 shots against NC State
  • 31 points on 24 shots against Indiana while being guarded by Oladipo most of the time

Perhaps he could become a decent combo guard off the bench in the future. Someone to look at as an undrafted FA.

Scouting reports have Snaer as clearly the best defender of these three players. DX.com says this of Hardaway:

His ability to stay dialed in on this end of the floor and consistently deny dribble penetration one-on-one will be the keys to his ability to hold his own early on, as he tended to lose focus very easily at Michigan and didn't seem to put major emphasis on stopping his man in long stretches.

Which seems about right to me. Usually first round picks are good at some things but inconsistent at others. Hardaway is inconsistent at nearly everything.

All three are pretty decent shooters (Wyatt's number is for his career since he had a down year):

NAME

3PT%

FT%

3PA per40

% ast'd 3PTM

Tim Hardaway

36%

70%

6.00

90%

Michael Snaer

38%

82%

6.00

67%

Khalif Wyatt

36%

84%

8.10

49%

Average Wing

36%

75%

4.86

75%

Hardaway is hit or miss as a shooter by this analysis, and so has been over his career at Michigan:

NAME

3PT%

FT%

3PA per40

% ast'd 3PTM

Tim Hardaway (Jr.)

36%

70%

6.00

90%

Tim Hardaway (So.)

28%

72%

6.90

75%

Tim Hardaway (Fr.)

37%

77%

8.20

73%

AVERAGE WING

36%

75%

4.86

75%

I genuinely believe if Michael Snaer and Tim Hardaway Jr. switched last names they would also switch draft stocks. I like Snaer a lot for a second round pick.

2. TONY SNELL (New Mexico)

I'm not really sure what to do here. Normally I give a little breakdown of each player using their stats and some scouting anecdotes and it is all about what they showed they could do on the court in college. But that approach makes no sense for Snell. Why? Go to this link. Actually this image understates the point quite a bit because it makes it seem like Snell shot 25 spots up the draft in 4 months. In reality it was more like 2 weeks in late May. Basically, no one cared about this guy until the combine. I think that is odd, but it doesn't matter. The point is if we are going to form our opinion on Snell based almost solely on the combine/workouts then there is really nothing I can say. He had good athletic testing results. I'm sure he shoots brilliantly in an empty gym.

Whatever. I'm going to trash the hell out of the guy. Nothing personal, T-Snell.

The first thing you notice about Snell is he kind of looks like Darius Miles. The second thing you notice about him is how much time he must spend on the court doing virtually nothing. He is the third worst offensive rebounder out of all the prospects in the last three years. His STL+BLK number is 10th out of 60 wing prospects over the last three years. And his ratio of free throws to field goal attempts (0.30) is 8th worst out of 60 wing prospects.

His rate of getting to the rim (18% of his shots) is 6th worst out of 150 prospects and when he gets there his rate of finishing (53%) is not only below average for a wing (66%), it is also the 5th worst mark of any NBA prospect over the last three years.

At first his assist rate looks like a nice skill (3.70 per40 vs 2.65 average for wing), but that could easily be an effect of Steve Alford's offense as it likely was for past prospects Darington Hobson and J.R. Giddens.

Even his shooting, which probably will be a legit tool at the next level, comes with the following caveat per DX.com:

Snell isn't quite as proficient when shooting with a hand in his face, with his field goal percentage dropping to 31.6% when guarded, which is right about average.

Not sure that will change in the NBA when he isn't towering over his opponent.

And then there is the issue of his game logs: very few strong performances against good teams. Indeed, very few decent performances. Instead:

  • 11 points on 10 shots against UCONN
  • 7 points on 5 shots with 5 TOs against USC
  • 10 points on 15 shots against Cincinnati
  • 7 points on 7 shots with 6 TOs against San Diego State
  • 6 points on 10 shots against UNLV
  • 10 points on 9 shots against Colorado State
  • 5 points on 4 shots with 4 TOs against Saint Louis

I just do not see why this guy would be a first round pick. If we were talking about Snell as a mid second rounder I suppose I could understand some of the appeal. But Snell as a first rounder requires too many excuses for his shortcomings to justify the pick for my liking. And assuming you like this type of "shoots but might not do much else" player, I cannot fathom why anyone would take Snell if Crabbe were still on the board.

    3. RODNEY WILLIAMS (Minnesota), JAMES ENNIS (Long Beach State) and ANDRE ROBERSON (Colorado)

All are excellent at physically impacting the game at the collegiate level, but a bit on the slender side so we can't be sure they will be able to do so in the NBA enough to be useful players. I want to know who is well-rounded enough to make sure they can be effective at the next level.

Slashers? I do not know.

NAME

AST/TOV

% at Rim

%Shots at Rim

%Ast'd at Rim

James Ennis

0.74

72%

35%

41%

Andre Roberson

0.59

63%

51%

41%

Rodney Williams

1.06

72%

47%

66%

Average Wing

1.04

66%

31%

42%

The numbers are more optimistic than I am. These guys just do not look like capable ball handlers when I watch them. They should continue to be effective in straight lines and within a stride or two of the rim, but I cannot see their slashing translating to the next level in any meaningful way.

The draft is weird. Two years ago Chris Singleton almost goes in the lottery. This year Andre Roberson-- who is very similar to Singleton in physical impact, which is the main appeal of both players-- is not even supposed to be drafted.

NAME

Per40 OREB

Per40 STL+BLK

FTA/FGA

Andre Roberson

3.50

4.20

0.36

Chris Singleton

2.70

4.50

0.44

Perhaps one of these three have 3+D potential? Assuming they have the ability to be plus defenders, Ennis seems like the only one who could add a consistent shot:

Name

3pt%

FT%

3PA Per40

%Ast'd 3PM

James Ennis

36%

85%

5.50

68%

Andre Roberson

33%

55%

2.20

94%

Rodney Williams

21%

63%

2.00

89%

Average Wing

36%

75%

4.86

75%

Ennis would be a perfectly acceptable mid 2nd round selection. Roberson and Williams are elite enough athletically and produced enough in college to be worth a shot at an undrafted signing.

All stats are courtesy of draftexpress.com, sports-reference.com or hoops-math.com. All per40 stats are pace adjusted unless explicitly stated otherwise.

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