New Play Index +

by DRoseO1 on Feb 16, 2012 9:51 AM CST

So, basketball reference has a new research tool called Play Index +. This was referenced in Alex's post from earlier. I wanted to create a separate post for all of the cool things found with this awesome tool. You can think us "statheads" suck all you want, but this tool is fantastic. They should win some sort of award for creating it. Here are just some of the cool things I found so far.

Rose's 3pt percentage was closer to 35.5% last year.
Final 2 minutes of 4th quarter and overtime last season. MVP
Bulls starters, even without RIp, dominate. Check out #12 too. And not too upset Billups is injured.

What cool stuff can you find?

FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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Comments

Yes, it's a cool tool...

but like any such tools, how it is used counts for a lot.

So, you are trumpeting Rose’s MVP status on the basis of his having made more FGs than anyone during the final two minutes? Really? That’s awfully superficial, and it intrinsically favors those players who have taken a lot of shots.

It would be equally superficial to use FG% alone, where Rose ranks 38th.

What about FG% (much more telling than the number of FGs made, no?), qualified by a low %Ast so that the players creating their own shots are emphasized? On that list, Rose fares well, but sits behind several players including Tony Parker.

Note that I’m not questioning his MVP status, only your use of that stat to buttress it.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 11:52 AM CST reply actions

These players are generally the best which is why they're given the ball

it intrinsically favors those players who have taken a lot of shots.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

so what?

Identifying those players who are “generally the best” doesn’t parse the list out in any meaningful way.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions

The player(s) a coach considers the best on his team generally shoot the ball in cruch time

Rose made the most of those opportunities, ∴ he was the best of all the players that NBA coaches considered the best.

Now this isn’t conclusive proof, but the logic is sound.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions

nonsense!

He’s 38th based on FG%, so how do you arrive at the conclusion that he is “the best”?

As mentioned above, Tony Parker (to name one) is clearly superior based on FG%, even when taking Asst% into account.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions

in fact...

Rose is ranked 49th based on eFG%, which raises further questions about his standing on any such list.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

if you are really going to take this to the fullest extent

you should also consider how many assists he gets and look at TS% not eFG%, to take into account how many fouls a player draws. And you should remove persons who either have an extremely high %asst’d total or who don’t have enough fg attempts.

Some combination of a high TS%, low asst’d% and a high ast% would be the way to judge who is the best in the clutch.

by Basketball Smurf on Feb 16, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions

agreed...

and my original point was simply that looking at FGs made is grossly simplistic.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 3:06 PM CST up reply actions

That's really more spurious reasoning than the initial post

Considering Rose took 2-3 times as many shots as most of the players above him, and over 4 times as many shots as anyone in top 5 by eFG%. But if you want to think DJ White is better than Rose be my guest.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:33 PM CST up reply actions

But if you want to think DJ White is better than Rose be my guest.

That’s a straw man argument. How about demonstrating why Tony Parker – the player I’ve specifically mentioned – is not better than Rose based on the various available stats.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 3:10 PM CST up reply actions

To support my argument

Players with 50 or more shots, and less than 50% of their buckets assisted

Rose comes out 8th in eFG%, and he’s within spitting distance of 4th.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

Forgot the link

http://bkref.com/tiny/jojIV

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions

that's fine...

but again, it doesn’t clearly point out Rose as “the best”.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 3:05 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed :)

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 3:46 PM CST up reply actions

Make it 80 or more shots and Derrick is 1st...

Clear evidence that he is in fact ‘the best’. Man I’m glad the Bulls have the best close and late player in the NBA on their team. It’s AWESOME!

Get ready for that 7th banner Chicago...it's '90-'91 all over again!

by kingles on Feb 17, 2012 11:55 PM CST up reply actions

Suppose he didn't sort by FG?

That table still shows he had a better fb% and 3pt% in these situations than anyone else who was in the MVP discussion. Conveniently, sorting by FG does put most of those players at the top

"Shame he’s such a goofy fuckface."
-JBJ, referring to Dwight Howard

by SidM on Feb 21, 2012 9:52 AM CST up reply actions

Sorry, but this kinda irks me

Derrick’s 3pt fg% was not closer to 35.5%.
His 3pt fg% was 33.2%(according to espn) and some of those shots were long buzzer-beaters that were just attempts to score points at the last possible second.

Just because they were outliers doesn’t mean they didn’t happen.

For what its worth, if he would’ve made them all and someone tried to disavow them as counting towards his FG%, I’d call bullshit too.

by darksmokepuncher on Feb 16, 2012 12:36 PM CST reply actions

You are missing the point

by Trey23 on Feb 16, 2012 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs

no I'm not

The point is that when evaluating derrick’s ability to shoot the 3, you are also including shots that aren’t in a normal basketball setting and so his FG% is taking a hit for shots no one expects him (or anyone else for that matter) to make.

That still doesn’t mean his 3pt% is higher than what it actually is.

by darksmokepuncher on Feb 16, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

You're just arguing semantics

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

I most certainly am.

FG% has a very specific meaning and you don’t get to adjust that meaning to make a point. If you don’t like the way its calculated, or feel that it leaves out some context, do like Hollinger and come up with your own statistic.

by darksmokepuncher on Feb 16, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

3 point FG% is seperated from total FG% in official stats

The stat listed above was M3FG%, makeable 3 point field goal percentage.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

But that is a stupid stat, really

How do they determine “makeable” ? If they just cut out half court heaves, then why stop there? Why not cut out all attempts that are rushed? And at that point, you might as well say if they were covered and had nowhere to pass to, lets just throw that out too.
Every shot is makable. Just cutting out all half court attempts does not tell you anything. Maybe there are players who are actually good at it? I would bet some are better than others. Do we not give them credit?

TL;DR

by metalkiwis on Feb 17, 2012 9:51 AM CST up reply actions

Why are 3 point FGs seperated from 2 pointers

by tuluse on Feb 17, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

They are not valued equally?

by rick o'shay on Feb 17, 2012 7:30 PM CST up reply actions

this is so ridiculous. its a made up tool. you can do whatever you want to it.

"A household is a business given over to caring for small, temporarily insane people, a business subject to cash-flow problems, endless legal harassments, run by people who expect to have sex with each other, who occupy the same space, and who go nuts when either party has sex with anyone else. Once in marriage, a lot of people try to get out as fast as religious tradition, poverty, or devotion to children permits.""

by TheMoon on Feb 16, 2012 11:22 PM CST up reply actions

OK, let me explain this to you

Yes, I get that his 3pt% was what it was. However, to say that this is not a significant difference is silly. If I am a coach and want to know if Derrick should be taking threes in half court sets, I might want to eliminate attempts that were taken as buzzer beaters. Since Derrick takes a statistically relevant number of buzzer beaters, it made his 3pt% look worse than it would have been if he only took 3’s in the half court sets or in transition. Guys like Kyle Korver don’t take many of these shots. Look how many shots Derrick took last year with 5 seconds or less left in the quarter. Sure enough, he takes the most. Korver is on page 2. He only took 8 (2 were threes, he missed both. Removing 2 unmakeable shots from Korver’s 289 3PA barely makes a difference, whereas removing 25 from Rose’s 385 3PA makes a very significant difference. While I understand stars need to take more shots that nobody expects them to make (including in the half court), it is important to know what Derrick can do when he has a real shot of making the attempt. Furthermore, that difference in 3pt percentage is the difference between a 53.25eFG% and a 49.8eFG%. The former is significantly higher than Derrick’s eFG% for last year, whereas the latter is not. By adjusting for unreasonable attempts, we can see that Derrick’s 3pt shooting helped his efficiency last year, rather than being a hindrance as some thought it was (although to be fair, it has been a tiny hindrance this year, even with the buzzer beaters eliminated. Still better than long 2’s though).

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 7:11 AM CST up reply actions 8 recs

So, we can call it "True Three-Point Percentage" or 3P%

Which is much more valuable to determine the efficiency of 3-point shooting. Scroll down to the bullet points here and you’ll find a link to Ethan Sherwood Strauss’ other solution: treat the past-halfcourt buzzer-beater misses as fouled FG misses and don’t count them.

Follow me on Twitter.

by Alex Sonty on Feb 17, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs

That was meant to read T3P%

Follow me on Twitter.

by Alex Sonty on Feb 17, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions

Excellent!

It’s a shame that his hands have (apparently) shrunk since he joined the Bulls.

Oh, and Taj is 21/22 this season.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions

Hmm, interesting point...

It’s a shame that his hands have (apparently) shrunk since he joined the Bulls.

but like any such points, I think it’s fairly unsubstantiated. What metric are you using to measure the degree to which his hands have shrunk since he joined the Bulls? Is that metric supported by a licensed medical doctor? Do you have, for instance, old gloves to compare with new gloves to support your argument that his hands have shrunk?

Note that I’m not questioning the size of Shy Ronnie’s hands, only your use of speculation.

by bryield on Feb 16, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 11 recs

Your sarcasm...

would have been more pungent if you had attacked the substance, rather than just the style of my earlier post.

by Paul Warfield on Feb 16, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions

maybe tone down your style then.

I find it noticeable, and I read a LOT of comments here.

BaB on Twitter | BaB on Facebook
"Don't nag, flag!"

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 16, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

You mean tranquilize his prose vis a vis his keyboard ergo heretofor we don't need to be condescended to.

Smrt is I!

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 16, 2012 5:43 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs

Haha

by Stacey_Is_King on Feb 16, 2012 8:55 PM CST up reply actions

hahaha. this is funny.

by TheMoon on Feb 16, 2012 11:23 PM CST up reply actions

Here's the whole team this year

http://bkref.com/tiny/NK9Zh

Boozer with about half the dunk attempts of any other big man :(

And he’s been assisted on ever single make :(

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

Is it possible that Rose is responsible?

Since he never tosses a lob?

by Tim S. on Feb 16, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions

Do you think Carlos Boozer has ever been one to go up for lobs?

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions

Both he and Brewer had more dunks with Utah.

by Tim S. on Feb 16, 2012 2:42 PM CST up reply actions

BREAKING: Deron Williams is an elite pick n' roll PG

Follow me on Twitter.

by Alex Sonty on Feb 17, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs

Carlos Boozer

dunks.

by Tim S. on Feb 16, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions

Brewer inside 5'

http://bkref.com/tiny/DFTeg

Ouch.

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions

So Amare Stoudemire was 6 for 16 on 3PAs in the final 2 minutes of the game last year

Weird. Actually, he and Melo were both pretty outstanding in the clutch last year.

Pat Riley is the devil.

by Poloplaya14 on Feb 16, 2012 2:53 PM CST reply actions

Amare shot 43.5% from 3 point range last year!

by tuluse on Feb 16, 2012 3:04 PM CST up reply actions

Melo's isolation play and his avoidance of the yips is truly elite

I probably wouldn’t call him a top 10 player, but in a close game, the tightening up of defenses doesn’t affect his game. Almost no one over-performs in halfcourt offense in these situations, the fact that his numbers throughout his career don’t fall off is a statement to his demeanor and how difficult his offense is to defend.

Follow me on Twitter.

by Alex Sonty on Feb 17, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions

i think melo is the best "clutch" player in the game if you want one shot

i think durant is a close second but until he actually gets a few more moves he’ll still keep launching those 30 footers

LINSANITY!!

by sin on Feb 17, 2012 11:25 PM CST up reply actions

Rose took 5 less shots per game last year when the Bulls won.

Supporter of Carlos Austin Boozer, and I don't want to see Dwight Howard in a Bulls uniform. Call me crazy.

by wrigleyrocker12 on Feb 16, 2012 3:09 PM CST reply actions

stats like that get skewed because of blowouts where he doesn't play heavy minutes.

Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.

by MarketMaker on Feb 16, 2012 4:16 PM CST up reply actions

Probably true

Or just meant that when guys are really hitting shots, Rose had no problem being a facilitator.

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 7:12 AM CST up reply actions

Is there a stat for

FGA per 36 minutes or some such, and then compare that between wins & losses?

by torch on Feb 17, 2012 7:46 AM CST up reply actions

We can do that ourselves

Stats this year.

Rose has 303FGA in 636MP for wins. That’s 17.15FGA per 36. Rose has 75 FGA in 181 MP for losses. That’s 14.92FGA per 36. So, he actually takes more shots in wins (per unit time) :).

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 8:01 AM CST up reply actions

Maybe per 100 possessions instead of per 36 minutes?

by torch on Feb 17, 2012 9:12 AM CST up reply actions

That's tough since we don't know how many possessions Rose played when in there

But total possessions in losses where Rose played: 93, 92, 90, 95, 89. Bulls pace for the season is 90. So actually, the win number would probably go up more than the loss number since all but one game are above the average for the season.

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions

hey Drose01

can you find the last time a front court all had double doubles? Or how many times it happened the last 25 years?

I’m dying to know

"We got to win. Win no matter what. Trip, kick somebody, fight, bite. Whatever. Win." - Derrick Rose

by Trey23 on Feb 17, 2012 1:04 PM CST up reply actions

I sure as hell am going to try

Thanks for giving me a task. Really needed an excuse to not grade papers.

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 4:21 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

Alright, so here is what I did

I first searched for all forwards and centers that had points/assists double doubles. Here is that list. Toni Kukoc was freaking awesome. I did find one game where Oakley had a triple double and Paxon had a double double. Oh, and here is the game you are looking for. Double-doubles for Rodman, Kukoc, and Pippen. To be fair, this is kinda cheating since the Bulls didn’t have a real center, but it still counts. It was 1998 against the Celtics (again!). Thanks Boston! That was the only instance I found where the entire frontcourt had a double double with one being points/assists.

Then, I searched for any time a center (or forward/center or center/ forward) had a points rebounds double double. I ignored games I had already viewed. This took awhile. 3 players had double doubles for the Bulls in ’86, but one was a guard. Same deal in ’87, one was Paxon. Same deal in 2004, one was Crawford. While I am doing this, Charles Oakley was damn good too. 35 rebounds in a game?! Sweet Jesus! Baby Bulls accomplished the feat in 2003. Crawford threw one in too for good measure, and Marshall was just shy of a triple double. That Warriors team ranked dead last in defense that season btw. Does this one in ’88 technically count? Well, if not this one sure does. A frontcourt double double and an MJ triple double. Thank you Golden State for refusing once again to play defense. Here is another in ’89. Here is one in ’93. I could keep going through these, but I am now tired. Here is the list if someone wants to keep going. This was really tough because I had to include F/C guys because the Bulls have not always used a true center. This also means I prolly repeated a game or two in there :(. If anyone has a better way, let me know. Although, I think it’s safe to say that the all frontcourt double double with one being pts/assts was last accomplished by the Bulls in 1998 against the Celtics. The last such all double double trio I could find in the whole NBA was kinda in 2008 because who the fuck knows what position all those wings were playing. No PG, just a center and a bunch of SG/SF’s. The 2007 Rockets and TMac did it a bunch, but TMac was a SG and Battier a SF. But (drumroll please), the last time it happened in the NBA was in 2006. Amare, Diaw, and Marion.

by DRoseO1 on Feb 17, 2012 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs

great stuff

So it had not happened since 2006, we can add Booze, Noah, Deng to the record book

"We got to win. Win no matter what. Trip, kick somebody, fight, bite. Whatever. Win." - Derrick Rose

by Trey23 on Feb 17, 2012 9:05 PM CST up reply actions

Shit, someone call Mike From Illinois and you two can stat battle to the death.

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 17, 2012 11:43 PM CST up reply actions

Lol

I’ve decided that instead of being a math teacher, I should have become a stat guy for an NBA team. Although probably not one of the guys that matters, just one that is looking up meaningless stats for broadcasters so they have something to talk about. Heck, the Bulls need a guy like that so Funk can talk about something besides how bad a particular player on the other team is.

by DRoseO1 on Feb 18, 2012 8:02 AM CST up reply actions