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Revisiting the Bulls draft in light of holes on the team exposed by Miami

So, last night the Bulls lost to the Heat in a pretty bummeriffic way. On the positive side, they didn't have Luol or C.J. and still hung tough while the Heat were at full strength. On the other hand, Wade looked awful and the other non-Bosh and LBJ Heatles did not really impact the game, which is something that probably won't remain consistent across games. Derrick Rose played 45 minutes last night and was clearly gassed at the end of the game. Playing those kind of minutes as the sole offensive option (Boozer and Rip were crap on O last night) against the league's second best defense and most athletic team will do that. He left a FT and the final shot of the game short. C.J. being injured forced John Lucas III into the game for the 3 meager minutes that Rose sat. He was a total disaster. He took one wild fade away jumper, turned the ball over, and managed to go a -8 in just 3 minutes (!). Frankly, Lucas is too small to ever play against the Heat. Which brings me to the purpose of this post. I think the Bulls missed an opportunity in the draft. I suggested in the SBNation Mock Draft that the Bulls draft combo-guard Charles Jenkins and big-man Jon Leuer. Jon Leuer has posted an 18.9 PER in his rookie season and frankly looks great, but we have a plethora of capable big men, so he's not the guy I want to focus on in this post (although if Boozer keeps disappearing in big games, it might be nice to have another offensive minded big).

I think the Bulls failure to have a competent third PG cost them the game and if CJ is hurt again during the playoffs (which is certainly unlikely, but possible) then the Bulls stand zero chance of beating the Heat. Simply put, John Lucas III does not belong on the same floor with the Heat. Charles Jenkins has put up relatively pedestrian numbers with a 12.4 PER, but he has a 52.2% True Shooting percentage. His low PER is largely a function of his very low usage (12.7%). Jenkins, thus far, doesn't take a ton of shots, but he also has an incredibly low 7.8 TOV% and decent AST% (23.7%). He also has actual NBA size, unlike Lucas. I find it hard to believe that Jenkins would have been as atrocious against Miami as Lucas was. Lucas has an egregious 46.7% True Shooting percentage on 18.1 shots per 36 minutes. Jenkins takes about half that many shots per 36 minutes and is much better at scoring on those shots. He turns it over much less and gets slightly more assists, pace and minutes adjusted. Basically, JL3 is a miniature chucker on the level of Jannero Pargo without any of the sometimes positive things on defense that Pargo would occasionally bring. Considering Jimmy Butler's inability to get off the bench, I think the Bulls missed by not drafting Jenkins. I think with even competent play during JL3's minutes last night, the Bulls win. I also think if the Bulls had someone competent who could have allowed Derrick to play 38-40 minutes instead of the 45 he played last night, the Bulls win. Basically, C.J. needs to get well and stay healthy in the playoffs. Or, you know, the Bulls could have cut JL3 and kept Mike James, who looked better in just about every way to Lucas in his brief stint with the Bulls and actually has the size to belong on an NBA court.

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The cliffnotes

I told you so.

-fundamentallysound

Pat Riley is the devil.

by Poloplaya14 on Jan 30, 2012 5:16 PM CST reply actions  

well, yeah.

"If you have a hero, look again; you have diminished yourself in some way."

by fundamentallysound on Jan 30, 2012 5:48 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

#knowledge
Or, you know, the Bulls could have cut JL3 and kept Mike James, who looked better in just about every way to Lucas in his brief stint with the Bulls and actually has the size to belong on an NBA court.

by Belize on Jan 30, 2012 5:41 PM CST reply actions  

JL3 ran around like an inept Capt Kirk

James has to be better.

He took his what to where?!

by hlac on Jan 30, 2012 6:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Would He even be playing?

Whats to make you think Thibs wouldnt still bring in LJ3 over jenkins If we had him?

by Krandle on Jan 30, 2012 5:53 PM CST reply actions  

JL3 was on the team last year

It’s not a matter of “picking him up.” It’s a matter of does Thibs want someone else for that spot.

by tuluse on Jan 31, 2012 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

it goes back to how the Bulls view those last few roster spots

Some teams view them as development spots (Miami, OKC, Dallas). Some teams view them as guys who may be needed in case of emergency or fill it with semi-useful vets (NY, Boston, San Antonio). The Bulls use their last couple roster spots for flexibility / extra on bench coaches. I don’t agree with it.

I actually think having a 5th big is more important than a 3rd pg, but I’d rather see competent NBA players all along the bench than whatever JLIII is.

by Basketball Smurf on Jan 31, 2012 11:00 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

incidentally, Jon Leuer would be

The best fifth big man in the league.

"If you have a hero, look again; you have diminished yourself in some way."

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2012 12:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

technically they picked him up

His contract was non guaranteed so they could have cut him and not paid him.

"If you have a hero, look again; you have diminished yourself in some way."

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2012 12:56 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

If we are gonna go there

Trading up for marshon brooks was what I was clamoring for after he dropped. Guy could be the go to scorer we need off the bench. But butler has looked fine and that hasn’t reduced deng’s time, so whoever we might have drafted may have made little difference.

by DRoseO1 on Jan 30, 2012 6:02 PM CST via Android app reply actions  

marshonnnnnn broooooooks

By popular demand I am putting a moratorium on the Melo talk until the Knicks win the title in June.

by sin on Jan 30, 2012 7:15 PM CST reply actions  

i know

im doing my best to trade his ass away before anyone in my league sees the injury report

By popular demand I am putting a moratorium on the Melo talk until the Knicks win the title in June.

by sin on Jan 31, 2012 12:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Some would probably say that you're living in hindsight

and that it’s not a big deal because any rookie would not have played under Thibs anyway. But I agree with you. Maybe not so much in the players because I wanted Marshon Brooks badly that night just like I wanted Ty Lawson a few years earlier. But I believe that a team so unwilling to go above the luxury tax has to be creative when filling out it’s roster.

Yeah the draft is a crapshoot but hey that’s what scouts and GarPax are getting paid for. They knew that the elevation of Rose last year basically jumped the FO plans at least a yea ahead. So why not put the best possible pieces together as soon as possible? Why does a team that got to the ECF have the luxury of waiting 2-3 years on Mitrioc instead of drafting a true backup PG or the possibly the best SG in the draft in Brooks? I didn’t get it then and don’t understand it now.

If we’re going to praise Garpax for hiring Thibs, drafting Gibson (who they were willing to lose out on for James Johnson) and winning a draft lottery to get Rose, I’m sure as hell going to hold them accountable for passing on valuable assets late in the draft that could help us now. You got your best player playing heavy minutes by necessity because you got a guy two guys on the roster (Scalabrine and Lucas) who are barley pro players. Being smarter in the draft could have fixed that.

Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!

by Dils on Jan 31, 2012 2:29 PM CST reply actions  

This is essentially what I was getting at. For all their depth, the Bulls still rely way too much on Derrick (and also Luol)

playing HUGE minutes in big games.

"If you have a hero, look again; you have diminished yourself in some way."

by fundamentallysound on Jan 31, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't see how drafting Charles Jenkins would have alleviated that problem

If Jenkins were on this team, I doubt Thibs would trust him enough to play him for more than 5 minutes against Miami.

Bottom line, Jenkins hasn’t shown me anything yet to make me wish we’d taken him. I think John Lucas is better than you give him credit for. You obviously don’t want him out there when it counts, but as far as 3rd PGs go, he’s pretty adequate. The reasoning behind drafting Jenkins that you gave is that he would’ve helped the Bulls’ SG issues, and Jenkins just hasn’t shown anything to make me think he might be a long-term answer there.

I think passing on Marshon Brooks might turn around to bite us in the ass long-term, but every year there’s one or two guys taken at the end of the first round or in the second round that make fans of every other team in the league say “damn, how’d we miss on him?”. Fixating on those guys with the advantage of hindsight just isn’t very purposeful, if you ask me.

By the way, 3-4 years from now, Mirotic is very likely to be that guy that makes fans of every other team wish their GM was savvy enough to take him. On the other hand,I wasn’t thrilled with the Butler pick at the time, and I’m still not. I’d be ecstatic if we had Jon Leur instead of him.

Pat Riley is the devil.

by Poloplaya14 on Jan 31, 2012 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I disagee on one point
but every year there’s one or two guys taken at the end of the first round or in the second round that make fans of every other team in the league say "damn, how’d we miss on him?". Fixating on those guys with the advantage of hindsight just isn’t very purposeful, if you ask me.

I think Sound’s point is that a lot of this stuff isn’t just hindsight pining. Forget Mitrioc for a second. Imagine if you’re a GM with some foresight and you took Lawson, Holiday, or Collison in ’09 and take Brooks this pass year. Now, how good are your trade pieces for a guy like Dwight Howard now? Of some other piece that could be needed?

That’s where scouting and foresight needed to be had. Those are big errors by this FO. You had a chance, without going over the cap or anything to vastly improve your roster and you don’t get a pass because you’re drafting later in the draft. If they wanted to take Mitrioc with the second 1st round pick fine, but at least show a sense of urgency and draft a kid that could contribute this year, We aren’t the Wizards. We were in the ECF. If Butler could contribute now I think Thibs would be playing him. Bad moves by GarPax in my opinion.

Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!

by Dils on Jan 31, 2012 9:52 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

In 2009

why would the Bulls have drafted either of those 3 point guards when Rose was coming off a ROY campaign and on the verge of super stardom? Lawson was drafted to be the heir apparent to Billups so Denver made sure to get him minutes. Collison started to turn heads when he got extended playing time because of injuries to Chris Paul. Holiday went to a team in Philadelphia that needed so he was going to play regardless. Those players wouldn’t have developed like that in Chicago because they weren’t going to take minutes away from Derrick or take the ball out of his hands. Plus in that draft the Bulls got Taj Gibson who is a starting caliber player just like those point guards that were mentioned.

For the love of god would people stop with the Marshon Brooks stuff. A rookie shooting guard is not going to get the Bulls past the Heat. For all the turmoil with the Nets about whether they’ll get Howard or if Williams will stay they haven’t ever mentioned being comfortable building around Brooks as a fail safe. I know he’s a rookie and has time and potential to grow but right all he has shown is that he can be a decent scorer on a bad team. You know who showed that the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft Michael Beasley but I don’t see anybody clamoring for him.

They can save the world if they don't kill each other first.

by squadron supreme on Jan 31, 2012 10:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I think its only Dils with teh Marshon Brooks shit

But yes it;s annoying and “sin-like”…C’mon Dils you said it yourself lol

"Violence is not always the answer."
"Violence is the question, and the answers always YES!"

by T.Moore on Feb 1, 2012 12:22 AM CST up reply actions  

First of all...

The reason none of those PGs were drafted in ‘09 was because this organization didn’t have the foresight to think that Kirk Hinrich cwould be a tradeable commodity (A guy they ended up losing for NOTHING) but they had every intention on trading their other draft goof up in Tyrus Thomas. That’s why James Johnson was drafted. So they wasted a pick on trying to replace another bad pick.

Second of all, since when is it a bad thing to have too much talent? This is news to me. Why is it a bad thing to draft a guy that you would have locked in for years on the cheap that could compete at a high level at position of strength? So in other words the Bulls were stupid for drafting Bj Armstrong to backup John Paxson or Scott Williams because we had Grant? No you put together the best roster you can and if you’re so stacked that Ty Lawson or Darren Collison is bitching about playing time, well guess who just became great trade bait?

Also they were willing to lose Taj in that draft because of taking James Johnson. Thank God Taj worked out but he could just as well be working out for someone else. Another thing about Brooks. The Bulls just decided to shut down Hamilton correct? So who are you or anyone else to say that he wouldn’t be getting decent, productive minutes at this time or that he couldn’t have been an important player on the bench mob?

I don’t understand that logic of not drafting a guy like that when we currently are giving 45 minutes to Kyle freaking Korver because of lack of a wing player. We have no idea how a rookie could fit in. Norris Cole is playing important minutes for the team we’re trying to beat. So we don’t have the luxury of saying how any rookie can’t fit.

Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!

by Dils on Feb 1, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

How would the value increase

of Lawson, Collison or Holiday by only playing 10-15 minutes a game behind Rose? You weren’t going to take minutes away from Rose in his second year to develop a rookie point guard and Derrick wasn’t going to play the two. The value of those players increased because they got large amounts of playing time that wasn’t going to happen here.

The reason Korver played so many minutes is because you have multiple injuries to wing players occurring at the same time. If Deng was healthy Brewer and Korver would get minutes at sg/sf position as matchups dictated. Same thing if Rip was healthy but Deng wasn’t. Then you talk about the same Norris Cole who looked terrible Sunday. Who would you rather have as your backup point guard Watson or Cole?

They can save the world if they don't kill each other first.

by squadron supreme on Feb 1, 2012 3:27 PM CST up reply actions  

I wasn't talking about having Cole

I was talking about a contending team drafting a player late in the draft that is playing meaningful minutes at a need position for them. I know some are sarcastic about the Cole pick and say that some are making him out to be Tim Hardaway but the fact remains that he’s a rookie contributing to a team trying to win a title. I’m not sure why the Bulls can’t have the same sense of urgency.

You list the what ifs about players that are hurt. Well that’s the point. These guys are hurt and I don’t see the harm of drafting better players lower in the draft for instances like this. It doesn’t matter if Lawson played 15 minutes a night. Perhaps he was so much better than CJ that he plays more than that and plays with Rose and proves to be the secondary ball handler this team needs. Then you save that money on CJ and could have another valuable player on the roster. One move can affect the other.

The post was about players the Bulls past on that could be helping them now. It’s not unfair to look at players the Bulls have passed up and say “Damn that guy would look nice in a Bulls uniform right now”. Especially if there were people pining for those guys to begin with.

Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!

by Dils on Feb 1, 2012 6:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Again

show me the contending teams drafting late in the first round that go out of their way to play a rookie major minutes so they can develop? The only way Lawson or any other point guard was going to get better was by actually playing not sitting behind Derrick. Watson has played fine when given extended minutes and starting when Derrick is hurt. If you want to bemoan not drafting Nick Young light in Marshon Brooks that’s fine however to make it seem like they made a mistake by not drafting a point guard who was going to be stuck behind Rose and have their growth stunted doesn’t make sense.

They can save the world if they don't kill each other first.

by squadron supreme on Feb 1, 2012 9:04 PM CST up reply actions  

I like the butler anyways

I think his position’ll increase if these damn injuries continue, anyways … if only out of sheer necessity

Rose decides not to go 1-on-2 and I was thinking, "what are you doing?! You've got the numbers!" -Zach Harper, Daily Dime Live

by Prevenge on Feb 2, 2012 3:19 PM CST up reply actions  

"They" don't rely on Derrick and Luol too much, "Thibs" relies on them too much

Thibs plays them more than necessary. And I don’t see how Charles Jenkins would be a solution.

Injuries. Fuck.

by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 1, 2012 5:54 AM CST up reply actions  

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