Looking at Carlos Boozer and the State of the Bulls
Let me begin by saying that this is not a panic post. At least I don't think it's a panic post. The Bulls seem to me to be exactly the team I thought they were going into this season, and none of the results of this season's contests have changed my mind. This is a very good team and we are very lucky to be following it. But it's kind of pleasurable to look at the team in new ways and in greater detail; so I want to look at where this team is now and where they are going, and to get there I first want to look at the team's most controversial player.
Let's consider the following two players (A and B):
|
A |
B |
|
|
PER |
17.9 |
18.1 |
|
TS% |
.530 |
.552 |
|
% of shots inside |
31 |
33 |
|
% of shots outside |
69 |
67 |
|
FG% on inside shots |
.682 |
.667 |
|
FG% on outside shots |
.429 |
.457 |
|
AST% |
8.6 |
7.2 |
|
TOV% |
12.3 |
11.1 |
|
TRB% |
16.1 |
17.0 |
|
FT Rate |
7.8 |
10.0 |
|
WS/48 |
.175 |
.168 |
[numbers courtesy of basketball reference.com and 82games.com]
They look really similar, right? You've probably guessed that player A is Carlos Boozer from this season. Player B is Antonio McDyess from 2007, when he was 32 years old. Now whatever your prior opinions of Carlos Boozer are, and however you want to define the expectations a reasonable fan should have of him, I think you have to agree the an offense whose second option looks remarkably like a 32 year old Antonio McDyess is an offense with problems.
Now it is my opinion that if Boozer ends this season with his current level of production he will have failed to hit reasonable expectations set for him. He is being asked to be a second option on offense and he is paid like a second option on offense; his production is that of a third option. I should point out here that I do not think one has to conclude that Boozer must be amnestied as soon as possible, since he is a solid player and I have my doubts about the Bulls' ability to adequately replace him in free agency. Also he remains a highly skilled semi-interior player; if he gets hot in the playoffs the Bulls could really go on a run. I just want to be clear that a team without a legitimate second option on offense and spotty perimeter shooting is a team with serious flaws.
It is also my opinion that the team as currently constituted is a very likeable team with a championship window of approximately one year: this one. After that the Bulls will probably loose some of their prized depth, while the Mirotic/Charlotte-pick reload will still be a hope for the future. I think starting next year the Bulls will look less like the contenders they currently are and more like the '12 Orlando Magic, which is to say near-contenders.
This is why I believe the Bulls need to go all in for a Howard trade. Phone Otis Smith and say, "Anything and everything we have outside of Rose is yours if you want it." I have noticed lately some commenters dismiss Howard as perhaps too light-hearted to be a champion. I think this seriously misses how big a deal a Rose/Howard pairing would be on the court. The Bulls would have top 5 players at arguably the two most important positions locked up for the next 10 years. This isn't anything like a James/Wade or Melo/STAT pairing; Rose and Howard are younger, healthier and compliment each other wonderfully; there's almost no redundancy or negative interference between them.
Undoubtedly the main issue with this is the risk involved. It is significant. Dwight Howard has made no mention of his desire to play for the Bulls, and if he walks then Chicago is practically back to 2004 status. That would be very sad. However, I think it is quite possible he stays if he is traded to Chicago. Consider the following statements that Dwight Howard might make:
1. I want to go somewhere where I'm the man.
That makes no sense, Dwight. You already are the man in Orlando, and I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be considered the man in 3 of the 4 destinations you've mentioned. Obviously you'd be the man in Dallas or the Lakeshow once Dirk and Kobe are put to sleep, but then you'd be the man in a big market on a mediocre team. What's so desirable about that?
2. I want to go where it's warm.
You're in Orlando right now. Only the Heatles are closer to the equator than you. And if what you say is true, then why New York?
3. I heard playing with Derrick Rose might be bad for Addidas.
I don't get this at all. If you come to Chicago you will play more nationally televised games than anyone else over the next 7 years. You will make many trips to the ECF and NBA Finals. You will win a ring or rings. Who will get more prominent airtime than you and Derrick? You'll be just like Kobe and Shaq: the big, playful juggernaut and the serious, high flying perimeter player. How is that bad for Addidas? In fact, how the hell is that not great for Addidas?
4. I like Brooklynn.
Who doesn't? Just know that by the time you get there Deron will be 28 and the Nets will not be a contender. They will have to build one with middling draft picks and limited cap space. Deron will be at least 30 by the time the Nets are ready, and who knows if Deron will still be the Deron we know by then. Have you noticed that when you poke his tummy he giggles? Maybe not the best sign for a professional athlete.
In the end though I guess we really have no idea what this guy is thinking or if anything he says should be taken at face value. Making a play for him is a really bold move, but I hope the Bulls do everything they can to make it. Opportunities like this are just too great and too rare not to.
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Oh sweet mother of God no
The supposition that the Bulls’ championship window is one year seems wildly pessimistic to me and the hope that a 26 year old guy who has shown absolutely no sign of seeing reason prior to the trade will suddenly begin to see reason after the trade seems wildly optimistic to me. If Dwight will commit prior to a trade, then I agree that the Bulls should go all in to get him. If not, then no thanks.
by thelivingant on Jan 17, 2012 5:09 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
Advanced stats are cool
but ignoring that McD had 8ppg and 6rpg against Boozers’s 18 and 10 from last year is not cool.
by JustAnotherFan on Jan 17, 2012 6:31 AM CST reply actions 8 recs
Your post was well written dude. good job.
I also think Boozer is overpaid in relation to his production, expectations of him, and what the team needs from him. Don’t forget thought that McDyess was always a really good player, his career just got killed by injuries. He was certainly a better defender than Boozer, which is where his real value came from. Finally, the Dwight issue has been discussed to death, especially here. He doesn’t want to come to Chicago. No one knows why. No one can figure out why. Fuck it.
I'm getting too old for this shit...
Overreaction...
If, for the sake of argument, the Bulls were to be eliminated by Miami in the finals, I can’t imagine pointing to Boozer as the primary reason.
Most would accept that he is underperforming based on original expectations and/or salary, but he is still a good, productive power forward. He is actually playing better than last year (e.g. shooting better from the outside and moving better on D), and in the context of this rather unusual Bulls team, is more than adequate enough to contribute to a Championship.
From my perspective, Noah is a much greater concern, as it is very difficult to imagine a Championship run with his current level of play. I won’t expand on that worrying topic here.
I’d like to also add something to the conversation that is rarely mentioned. Thibs’ weakness as an offensive coach is almost certainly contributing to Boozer’s underperformance, and that fundamental weakness (as it obviously affects the whole team) is – again in my view – a much more serious concern come playoff time than an individual player averaging a few points and a couple of rebounds less than some idealized version.
If Thibs were to refine his use of Rose and Deng (i.e. manage their minutes so that that aren’t burned out late in the playoffs), and his offensive schemes, then I wouldn’t expect Boozer to be any impediment to a Championship run.
by Paul Warfield on Jan 17, 2012 7:49 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
I’m getting tired of the whole Boozer bashing here. Yes, he’s not playing as well as we expect him to be. Yes, he’s supposed to be our second best scorer. Still, you know what? The Bulls can live (and succeed) with what he’s been giving us. For all we know, the Bulls can amnesty him this offseason and give Taj a 4 year contract based on the MLE. Sign a ring-chasing veteran for two years while Nikola Dirk Mirotic gets here and I think we get a good shot.
The real concern here is Joakim. I’m worried as hell about him. I don’t expect him to play like he did against the Celtics every time, but his decline is really concerning. As good as Omer is defensively (and he’s REALLY good), his lack of offense is too dangerous. Remember the Keith Bogans era? Well, this is something like that, except for the OR rate. Joakim brings excellent passing, sets good screens, rebounds well offensively and can drive to the hoop against slower centers – at least that’s what he used to do.
Derrick+Joakim+Booz > Ray-Ray, The Wheelchair guy, that stupid martian and the punk who only messes with 6 foot foreign point guards and 3 point shooting centers
by poker_punker on Jan 17, 2012 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Omer's defense is a lot more important than Bogans'
A better comparison would be Omer to Ben Wallace, because Omer not only shuts down his man a la Bogans, he defends the paint and rebounds extremely well.
Also, Omer doesn’t just have good defense. It is otherworldly. I’ve never seen a big man slide his feet as quickly as Omer. When he’s showing on pick and rolls, he’s able to keep up with even the quickest guards step for step as they drive from the 3 point line to the rim and contest or force them baseline out of bounds; it’s absolutely incredible.
There are the guys who get you the need baskets," says Bulls reserve forward Brian Scalabrine, referring to the vital hoops that stop runs and close out games. "I have a different word for killers. I call them mother-------. And right now, Derrick Rose is the baddest mother------ in the league by far. He is the reason we win.
On Thibs weaknesses as offensive coach
although I’m sure Sloan ran a better system for Carlos, I’d be careful how much of this I blame on anyone but Boozer. Boozer doesn’t seem to be able to put the ball on the floor, drive and finish like he did in Utah. He looks like he lost a step or three. If Boozer can’t post and can’t drive, than you are asking a coach to design an offense that gets Boozer layups at the rim constantly. I don’t know if that is even possible. Last year Boozer was taking 6 shots at the rim per game. What’s changed? I don’t think the offense is that different.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 17, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I don't disagree...
but as much as I like Thibs as a coach, I do not have much confidence in his ability (yet) to get the most out of the players he has to work with (offensively).
I’m convinced, for example, that he could come up with more creative ways to free Korver for consistent good looks, and develop plays for Brewer to jump over people around the rim. So, while I agree that Boozer appears passive, and has been awfully weak around the basket, I do think that more could be done to free him up for inside shots with one, rather than two or three defenders around him.
Needless to say, the way that Noah is playing, and with Asik’s hands, unless Taj and/or Boozer are utilized more heavily around the basket, opposing defenses will be able to play much tighter on Rip, Rose and Deng.
by Paul Warfield on Jan 17, 2012 4:47 PM CST up reply actions
The problem is though that he's paid a large amount to do a certain thing and he's not delivering.
Is he productive? Sure. At times. But we need him to be a lost post dominating threat. Otherwise he’s just an overpaid role player and that’s where everyone has an issue.
By popular demand I am putting a moratorium on the Melo talk until the Knicks win the title in June.
Who doesn’t?
um, millions of people.
by obnoxious american on Jan 17, 2012 9:35 AM CST reply actions
About Adidas
It’s highly unlikely Mr. Howard particularly cares what is good or bad for Adidas. What he does surely care about is what Adidas will pay him on his next shoe contract. And while we can all theorize about what would really be best for Adidas , odds are they know the effects of where Howard is playing more than we do on their shoe sales. And it appears they have given some information to Howard’s agent that is negatively influencing his desire to come to Chicago. That said, Since Adidas number one basketball star has an agent that was part of the organization, my guess is that Gar Paxdorf has a pretty good idea of exactly what they are up against and rumors are that we are still involved. So that’s a good sign.
As a sidenote, and apologies in advance to those I’m about to offend, anybody that pays an inflated $ amount for a pair of overhyped sneakers because a 25 year old basketball player’s name is on them is an idiot and hopefully has reliable family members who make the significant financial decisions in their life.
Do you have no vanity purchases in your wardrobe?
As a sidenote, and apologies in advance to those I’m about to offend, anybody that pays an inflated $ amount for a pair of overhyped sneakers because a 25 year old basketball player’s name is on them is an idiot and hopefully has reliable family members who make the significant financial decisions in their life.
I don’t see any difference from someone buying an expensive watch or expensive cologne and someone buying basketball shoes. I say this is as a person who only wears converse all-stars when hanging out.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 17, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
I have no issue with people who buy sneakers if they like how they look.
Now, if someone goes out and buys a shoe just because DRose, Lebron or Kobe wears it, I think that’s pretty silly, but it doesn’t bother me that much I’ve never been a sneaker chaser, if I like how it looks I get it, and I pretty much only where sneakers when I hoop and work out.
maybe it's just me
someone buying an expensive watch or expensive cologne
but I think those people are silly as well.
"Shame he’s such a goofy fuckface."
-JBJ, referring to Dwight Howard
Slightly disagree about your conception of the championship window
I think starting next year the Bulls will look less like the contenders they currently are and more like the ’12 Orlando Magic, which is to say near-contenders.
The Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls situations are very different, for a variety reasons. Starting with:
1. The Orlando Magic kept trading away key pieces. They failed to keep Hedo and didn’t find anyone to replace what he did on the floor. It would be like the Bulls trading Deng for Ray Allen and than wondering why they can’t defend SF anymore. The Magic traded their Point forward and couldn’t find anyone to replace the offense he generated. They also traded Gortat, Pietrus and Courtney Lee and never replaced them as well.
2. Along those lines, the Bulls have depth where Orlando did not. Even if Boozer was to completely turn to shit, they still have Taj and Omer and Noah. Like I said before, Orlando had no one to replace Hedo’s production. Chicago’s role players are also younger than Orlando’s.
3. And finally, the cap situation’s and future prospects of the teams are totally different. At one time Orlando was paying Howard, Lewis, and Vince Carter all over $15 million a year. The Bulls have kept good control of their cap, they have a number of future potential prospects and trading pieces and finally they have the trump card of the amnesty to play in the next few years. Orlando went from a bad cap situation, to worse and worse. The Bulls don’t seem like they are going to make that same mistake.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 17, 2012 11:42 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
I agree with all your points. Great post
But isn’t it also possible that both of you are correct, and that even though we have a better outlook than those Orlando teams, we still only have a one year window?
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 4:15 PM CST up reply actions
is there a counter argument somewhere in here?
other than “we might lose some depth” I cant even find anything in the post that explains the one year thing.
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:08 PM CST up reply actions
What do you mean, "the one year thing"?
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 5:26 PM CST up reply actions
why a one-year title window
our entire core is locked up for multiple years, even the backups will only be RFAs, so what’s the argument for this year being so important?
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
Personally, I find it difficult for any team to sustain a serious title run with only one true superstar level player
It’s not that I think the team will fall apart, and if they make a trade, all bets are off. But i think when you’re relying on the contributions of so many different people for success, and great defense, as opposed to great talent, eventually the competition will start to catch up
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 6:21 PM CST up reply actions
i believe there is a shelf life, but not 1 year
i think 2 to 3 years is more accurate. And that point, Boozer and Hamilton start to break down completely and you start to get near the end of the Noah/Deng contracts. At that point the verdict will be completely out on this team (assuming the Bulls make necessary tweaks in the roster moving forward).
I think the more apt comparison for the Bulls is what Dallas did with Dirk. They made their run with Dirk, Nash, Finley etc. When that failed, they shipped off everyone but Dirk and brought in a new cast of guys. I see the Bulls trying to do the same thing (but without all the costs). So I see Rose’ Bulls having multiple 50 wins seasons throughout Rose’s career, but this particular group will have only a couple years to get it done.
by Basketball Smurf on Jan 17, 2012 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
Boozer needs to hit 25 and 12 when its called for, like the playoffs, or when Rose is out, or when Deng is off.
His inactivity and lazy ass is keeping him at 12 and 8, and at 30 minutes a game.
Carlos, when you don’t have the ball, fight for position, knock a point guard down on a legal screen JUST ONE FUCKEN TIME, fight for offensive rebound position you Piece of CRAP, Kthanks.
by Trey23 on Jan 17, 2012 12:49 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
disagree with this part
Phone Otis Smith and say, “Anything and everything we have outside of Rose is yours if you want it.”
Given what you mentioned about him not wanting to come here, if we gut ourselves for him and don’t win a championship, we lose our best argument for staying; that we’re a dynasty with him. In my mind, if we trade for him without guarantee of more years, we have to win with him to convince him to stay.
"Shame he’s such a goofy fuckface."
-JBJ, referring to Dwight Howard
lol i don't understand
HOWARD.DOES.NOT.WANT.TO.PLAY.IN.CHICAGO.CHICAGO.
he will not be a bull tomorrow, or next week, or next month, or next year, or ever.
player A is Carlos Boozer from this season. Player B is Antonio McDyess from 2007, when he was 32 years old.
holy crap…i almost shat myself
by Belize on Jan 17, 2012 1:15 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
lol i can't believe it
Carlos Boozer is Antonio McDyess.
by MartyMondays on Jan 17, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with what you say about Boozer and his not living up to expectations
But I really don’t agree with your “sky is falling” point of view regarding the Bulls’ prospects over the next couple years. Rose is 23, Deng is 26, and Noah is 26, so those guys are probably going to continue to play at this level (in Noah’s case, he has to start playing better at some point, right?). Even if Boozer’s become McDyess 2.0, he’s still a reasonably productive player at that level. Taj still has another year left on his rookie deal, and I think JR will open up the checkbook a little bit for Asik (thankfully the rules limit how much another team can offer him at this point). Rip, Brewer, Watson and Korver will all still be around next year at very reasonable prices. So I think we’ll definitely still contend next year.
After that, Taj, Brewer, Watson, Korver and Rip may all leave, and we will have to plug those holes, but I’m confident that our front office will be able to do that. I mean, they did bring all those guys in in the first place, didn’t they?
Of course, if we can get Howard and convince him to stay, I’m all for it.
Pat Riley is the devil.
One problem though,
is that they brought all those guys over when Rose was still on his rookie contract. With Rose+Boozer+Noah’s contract, the office becomes severely limited in their options to fill those role player spots.
Great article.
What a find with those McDyess vs. Boozer numbers. I was racking my brain for who column B would be.
I used to be in the camp of “don’t blow up the roster for Howard.” But I think witht he way Jo and Boozer are playing, and then seeing how capable Taj and Asik are, I would be more than willing to deal Booz+Noah+picks or Brewer (just not Deng!) for Howard, only if he agrees to an extension. I still think it’s too risky to just get him for a year and cross our fingers that he wants to stay despite him saying many times that he won’t.
To long, stopped reading after your ridiculous conclusion between Boozer and McDyess
Now whatever your prior opinions of Carlos Boozer are, and however you want to define the expectations a reasonable fan should have of him, I think you have to agree the an offense whose second option looks remarkably like a 32 year old Antonio McDyess is an offense with problems.
This is a completely silly and meaningless conclusion. You’re comparing two players against each other but not against anything else. Saying Boozer is putting up similar numbers to a 32 year old McDyess means nothing until you put it into some kind of context. It could just as easily mean that McDyess was playing very good that year (which is probably a lot more fair to say). Not to mention that Boozer is 30, so what’s the point? McDyess was actually a pretty good player too. So this should be encouraging. “Look at the numbers McDyess put up when he was 32, Boozer could do the same.”
Look, lost in all this overanalysis of how good or bad an individual player is playing is the fact that EVERYONE in the league is, on average, performing poorly due to the lockout. There is a lot of poor and sloppy basketball being played. Did you see the Lakers/Mavs last night? Defense is outpacing offense across the entire league. The Bulls arguably have the best defense in the league and their offense has actually been more efficient this year than last.
Despite the league-wide poor play, the Bulls actually have improved upon last year and have the best record, best defense (which is very important), and one of the best point differentials (which is a great predictor for future success) – and while playing one of the most difficult schedules in the league so far.
Of course there are issues the team needs to address. Every team has issues they need to address. And address them they will (and have been). But it’s ridiculous to blow out of proportion how poorly a player has played, especially when he’s playing very near what he was playing at last year and has been the 2nd or 3rd most productive player on the team for the season.
This goes for everyone on the team. Really the only player that is concerning is Noah, and even that I’m not too concerned with. Yet…
by berzerkulous on Jan 17, 2012 2:53 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Well, your point might have some validity if I and the other Booz-haters
were upset only with his play this season. He had a nice 1-2 months last season and then he hit a wall. For the majority of his time with the Bulls, he’s been disappointing. Furthermore, being that he was signed to shoulder the load offensively and produce plenty of points in the playoffs, it’s fair to expect:
a)Good production in the playoffs,
b)Great production in games where Rose is unavailable.
Well…..in last season’s playoffs, Carlos did two things. First, he spent many fourth quarters on the bench. Secondly, he registered zero 30 point games and only three 20 point games. In 6 of the 16 playoff games, he scored in the single digits. Was he injured? Maybe, maybe not, but he did not do what he was brought here to do in scenario A(playoffs).
In scenario B, in albeit just one game, he produced sh**.
The bottom line is that in last year’s playoffs and a good number of games this season, Booz has spent a whole lot of time either sucking or sitting out, with some good play sprinkled in somewhere inbetween.
one can make the argument that you stopped reading after the title.
i never said boozer sucks, or that McDyess sucked in ’07, or that boozer cannot be the same guy at 32 that he is now, or that the bulls are bad, or that they are worse than last year, or any of those other arguments you made up.
what i said is that boozer’s production, and the WAY he gets his points (which is why I included the inside/outside stuff— I should have put their % of baskets assisted numbers up there too because those numbers are similar as well) are similar to a 32 year old antonio mcdyess. and if you said that ‘07 Antonio Mcdyess was a team’s second option on offense (by my count he was like the 4th or 5th option on the ’07 Pistons team) then you would also probably say that that team has issues on offense, especially if their perimeter shooting isnt great either.
the bulls have to play a few really good defensive teams in the playoffs, and they rely inordinately on derrick rose and the offensive rebounding of a few bigs who cant finish around the rim.
"We would look at each other with a glint of recognition and one of us would say, 'So you worry about ASIK, too,' as if admitting a secret vice. Then we would share our crazy ideas-- because all ideas about ASIK that are not immediately wrong turn out to be crazy."
Now it is my opinion that if Boozer ends this season with his current level of production he will have failed to hit reasonable expectations set for him
I guess I just disagree that we should evaluate him based on what he’s supposed to produce. Yes, you can see that he’s been somewhat of a disappointment, but I fail to see how we were gonna find a better player than him without giving up good players that are helping us win right now
Boozer has value, in that, he’s productive, and the only real negative affect of signing him was on our cap space. But that has not hurt us yet in terms of having to give up young, promising players like Taj or Omer. Once these things happen (IF they happen) then things will have to be reevauated.
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
You can recognize that Boozer's been a disappointment while realizing that he does still have value to the team.
Pat Riley is the devil.
That's been my whole argument, so you don't have to tell me that
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 4:56 PM CST up reply actions
OK I guess I misunderstood you then
But in that case, I guess I just don’t see who you’re arguing with. Nobody’s calling for Boozer to get amnestied or anything like that. Moon just pointed out, correctly, that Boozer’s underperformed this year, relative to expectations. I really don’t see how you can disagree with that point.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Nobody’s calling for Boozer to get amnestied or anything like that.
Really? I think quite a few people have. To name names, just yesterday Dakoose and Dils were saying he was useless and needed to be amnestied (although to be fair, I’m not sure if they ever definitely said they wanted him amnestied, but that seemed to be what they were getting at)
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
I think the people calling for amnesty are a very select few, and I'd guess that a lot of them don't really understand the fact that we'd still be over the cap even without him
In any case, Moon definitely specifically said he doesn’t think amnesty is a good idea.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Yeah, I really had no beef with anything Moon wrote
Maybe the quote I lifted was used a bit out of context. So my bad there. I guess I’m just still riled up from the Boozer discussion yesterday which was far more of the “He sucks!”/“He doesn’t!” variety.
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
I've stated that if if comes down to losing
Taj or Omer in the future, I would amnesty Boozer if it meant keeping them. That was a point you agreed with as well. I value what those two bring more than keeping Boozer.
Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!
In the long run, yes.
If Boozer continues to regress into a mid-range shooting, subpar defending PF then Omer’s value as one of the best defensive bigs in the league goes up. It’s not unreasonable to believe that a re-signed Omer or Omer/Taj combo would be much more valuable than a not-getting-any-younger Boozer.
But this is referring to future prospects, of course.
Just Married...
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Jan 18, 2012 1:23 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think Omer is overvalued around here
Yes, he is a dominant defensive center. But he is essentially a zero on offense. Literally, his only offensive skill is dunking, and that can’t even be fully utilized cause he can’t catch the ball.
See the thing about basketball is that being a zero on offense isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world
There are a lot of guys who have negative impacts on offense by taking bad shots, committing dumb turnovers and failing to move the ball. Because Omer knows his role, he doesn’t do much to muck things up.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Jan 18, 2012 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Omer is not a good offensive basketball player. However,
he is not a zero. If a big can set strong picks, roll correctly in on a PnR, make his dunks and draw some fouls in the process, then that makes his contributions on the defensive end even bigger.
Just Married...
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Jan 18, 2012 9:40 PM CST up reply actions
He's come out of his shell at times this season, offensively.
He’s showed a couple of nice post moves on occasion and has been a little more aggressive. He’s got a long ways to go, but he can have value.
And when you look down the road, if Mirotic pans out as a skilled offensive 4, you can have a damn good frontcourt with a scoring 4 and a lockdown 5.
What happens to Noah in that scenario?
Anyway, my point isn’t that Omer doesn’t play a valuable role on the team. But to say he is more valuable than Boozer is ridiculous.
Maybe he does have value to the team, but just not in the fourth quarter, I guess.
That’s not me saying that, it’s Thibs, btw.
yeah, and coming from we who fawn over rose for not caring about his numbers
setting a quota for booz’s points and efficiency seems ridiculous. I just want him to be more aggressive near the hoop and help on D
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Right
Plus, with the way Thibs is, it’s also unfair to judge him based on the fact that he’s not closing out games. Boozer could be doing exactly what we brought him here to do (post scoring and rebounding) and Thibs still might opt to go with Taj simply because he values defense so much
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 5:29 PM CST up reply actions
It's not just setting a quota for his points and efficiency
For me, what bothers me is that he’s settling for jumpers so much instead of attacking the rim, and the numbers bear that out.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Yeah, that seems to be the one major issue with Boozer
Really no way of sugar coating except to say that hopefully he’ll change that a bit
Although it should be noted that he’s still a very good passer, which helps his overall value to the offense. Plus Taj, who’s beloved, is taking a shitload of jumpers as well, only it seems like he’s missing all of them (haven’t looked up the numbers to compare the two on % on shots in that range, but I’d imagine Boozer would be way ahead)
Sadly, my self worth is almost entirely based upon the outcome of the previous night's Bulls game.
by Juiceboxjerry on Jan 17, 2012 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
seriously, lost in the booz hate is taj's awful jumper. i cringe whenever he shoots
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:40 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah but Taj is one of the best defenders in basketball
So he brings more to the table even if he can’t shoot.
Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!
Boozer is 44% from 16-23 feet, while Taj is 31.0% from that range
So yeah.
I really don’t like watching Taj out there. I know his defense is great, but I cringe every time he touches the ball.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Jan 17, 2012 10:05 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
he seems fine around the rim
pretty decent actually.
by obnoxious american on Jan 18, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
watching the Bulls this season
I want to say they would benefit from a stretch 4. A big thats a threat from beyond the arc. I feel like a lot of the players are simply shooting more to spread defences out. Noah is shooting a lot and Boozer is shooting a lot. Brewers taking 3s. Why not just get a shooting big, and take a big out of the paint. Someone like Bargnani to play at the 4 and Noah to stay at the 5.
Let us cavort like the Greeks of old! You know the ones I mean.
cause then we have literally no post threat
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
do we have one now?
and have we made an effort to use one.
Let us cavort like the Greeks of old! You know the ones I mean.
by hedonism bot on Jan 17, 2012 5:20 PM CST up reply actions
well obviously that's the complaint with boozer, but i don't know why we'd exacerbate it by getting an even less physical player
"It was so despicable, it was beyond [the Lakers-Celtics rivalry]; it was a new kind of hatred.". -Flea on the Heat
by paddyfairview on Jan 17, 2012 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
yes it is
and i don’t want to get caught up having to defend Bargnani. I personally would give Boozer the rest of the season to figure it out. But what if we went for more of a shooting big instead of a post threat. Maybe Noah figures it out and gets away with getting inside buckets like he did for a little last year.
Let us cavort like the Greeks of old! You know the ones I mean.
by hedonism bot on Jan 17, 2012 5:29 PM CST up reply actions
And on cue....
Boozer goes for 31 points shooting 66%
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying." -- Michael Jordan
Only 6 borads though
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying." -- Michael Jordan
by bennythebull on Jan 17, 2012 9:33 PM CST up reply actions
when both teams shoot over 50%
there aren’t many rebounds lol
Look
I didn’t want to offend anyone by saying the "f" word or generalizing my statement to any particular sex by saying "gays" or lesbians" or "bi’s" so "homos" is the most "politically correct" term. I’m just trying to be more tact in a tactless blog.
by Hindut Patrol on Feb 15, 2011 2:51 PM EST
by Jaina on Jan 17, 2012 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I think the amnesty clause is already earmarked for Carlos Boozer
the only question is when the Bulls will use it.
The Bulls will probably wait until when Mirotic comes over from Europe before they cut Boozer loose. Mirotic and Gibson (if the Bulls keep him) would actually be a pretty good PF rotation, with Mirotic providing the offense and Gibson being the defensive replacement.
As for Dwight Howard, the guy doesnt want to come to the Bulls, so no reason to think about it further.
by the time the bulls would want to amnesty him,
who will want to bid on him? and even if they do, the winning bid will be what, $3m? you might as well keep him until he’s an expiring.
by obnoxious american on Jan 18, 2012 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Big complaint with your comparison
As has been stated above, perhaps Antonio McDyess was awesome that year. However, that’s not my issue. You ignore two hugely, hugely important stats…USG% and MPG! McDyess had a USG% of 18.6 and played 21.1 MPG. Boozer sports a USG% of 23.6 and plays 29.1 MPG. The Bulls currently play at a pace of right about 90, which is 1.875 possessions/min. Multiply that by Boozer’s 29.1MPG and that means Boozer is in for about 54.6 possessions/game. Boozer uses 23.6% of possessions which nets Boozer using right around 13 possessions per game. That Pistons team McDyess was on used 92 possessions per game. That’s 1.92 posessions per minute. Therefore, McDyess was in the game for about 40.4 possessions. He used 18.6% of those possessions for 7.5 possessions. Again, these are rough approximates. Bottom line, Boozer is using about twice as many possessions as McDyess. He is a much bigger part of the Bulls offense than McDyess was on that team. Would I like the Booz to get more shots from in close? Yes. Is this a valid comparison? No
by DRoseO1 on Jan 18, 2012 7:45 AM CST reply actions 6 recs
i guess i wasnt clear on what i meant by the comparison. i'll try here.
1) i dont know what to tell you, rate stats work. they are accurate descriptions of how a player produces regardless of the minutes he gets. so that distinction between the two is meaningless, unless i were making an argument about the value provided by the two players like RTM says below me, which i clearly am not.
2) the USG% difference reflects that fact that boozer is being asked to be the second option on offense while mcdyess was asked to be the 4th or 5th option. i am willing to concede this. my point is that they produce similarly and in very similar ways, and that a mostly jumpshooting big man who doesnt draw fouls or get many assists is inadequate to the task of being the second option on a championship offense, and in order to make that point i wanted to get away from boozer for a second so that we could see him clearer.
"We would look at each other with a glint of recognition and one of us would say, 'So you worry about ASIK, too,' as if admitting a secret vice. Then we would share our crazy ideas-- because all ideas about ASIK that are not immediately wrong turn out to be crazy."
Boozer's definitely not a championship-caliber 2nd option (or at least, this year he hasn't been)
But we compensate for that by having excellent 3rd/4th options in Deng, Korver, and Rip. It’s no secret that we’re not nearly as top-heavy as most championship-caliber teams have been, but we really don’t have a weak spot in our lineup, even when our bench is in. Not too many teams throughout the history of the league have been able to say that.
Pat Riley is the devil.
deng is not an excellent 3rd option on offense (.48 TS%) and i am a card carrying member of the
“deng for president” movement. korver is a role player. and i think you know my thoughts on hamilton, so i guess we’ll just have to disagree here and leave it at that.
"We would look at each other with a glint of recognition and one of us would say, 'So you worry about ASIK, too,' as if admitting a secret vice. Then we would share our crazy ideas-- because all ideas about ASIK that are not immediately wrong turn out to be crazy."
by TheMoon on Jan 19, 2012 1:01 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Ok
I understand the comparison a bit better now. Yes, I get that percentage stats and rate stats work regardless of usage or playing time and can be used to describe how a player is producing (although not how much). However, being a higher usage player while in the game and still managing to keep a certain TS% or rebound rate is much more impressive. However, since you were simply making a comparison between player “type” I get that. Although, I’d bet Boozer created more of his own shot opportunities than McDyess did. You can hate Boozer’s fadeaways all you want (I do) but Boozer can create his own space and his own shot, McDyess rarely, if ever, did.
Here is the problem I have with your argument as I know see it (and it is twofold). Problem 1, Boozer’s ast% is way down this year. Boozer has mostly been in the 14-15% range for his career. This includes years in Utah and last year in Chicago. I have a strong feeling that this will go back up since it does not relate at all to possible degenerating athleticism (assuming he was athletic at all to begin with). From what I’ve seen, his ast% is down because Joakim and to a certain extent Deng and Brewer and not finishing on cuts. So, I disagree that Boozer can’t get assists. However, here is my bigger problem. Who says Boozer is supposed to be the second option? The Bulls are a very balanced team when healthy. Look at what Hamilton has been able to do this year in limited time. His TS% is down (although he has missed several wide open layups, so while that percentage may not go up a ton, it should go up some), but his ast% is a ridiculous 22.1%! Hamilton currently ranks 12th among SGs in ast%. That doesn’t sound great, however, let’s look at this more closely. Rip is the only player on that list that has a USG% over 20, and a TOV% less than 14 aside from Jason Terry. Bottom line, Rip Hamilton has been a fantastic passer so far this year. My point, Hamilton is certainly a decent second option.
I think the argument is this, the Bulls have one of the best number 1 options in basketball. Having a weaker number 2 option won’t necessarily hurt. Hamilton can be a good one because he can act like a pseudo point guard to take pressure off of Rose. Boozer can be as well, but only if he’s going.
Bottom line is this: the Bulls have had a terrible, awful schedule so far. It’s easily been the worst in the NBA based on difficulty of opponents, number of games, length of breaks, and number of road games. They have been without Hamilton most of the way. They have been without Rose for several games. And yet, the Bulls are 2nd in Drtg and 8th in ORtg. Read that again, 8th in ORtg despite “not having a championship caliber second option” and their top scorer being out for several games (and Joakim playing like dog shit). Bulls seem to be just fine.
we'll have to see how his AST% moves, because i see his failure to create for others as he
did before as a consequence of his failure to create for himself as he did before, fadeaways aside.
"We would look at each other with a glint of recognition and one of us would say, 'So you worry about ASIK, too,' as if admitting a secret vice. Then we would share our crazy ideas-- because all ideas about ASIK that are not immediately wrong turn out to be crazy."
usg% is already factored into the PER
which is why their PERS are similar even tho McDyess has slightly better TS, REB, TOV%. Your point about minutes stands though. Clearly if 2 players are making similar contributions, the one playing more minutes is adding more value.
by RoseTyrusMancrush on Jan 18, 2012 11:09 AM CST reply actions

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