Will the Bulls Make a Move?
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 2, 2011 10:16 AM CDT
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The Bulls are in an excellent position to make a move right now. Despite being near the cap themselves, the Bulls still have opportunities to make trades and deals before and after the draft if they are willing to be aggressive and take on money.
The Bulls have $4 million in un-guaranteed contracts for next season (Bogans, Lucas, Pargo) and another $12.5 million in contracts that are set to expire after next season (Brewer, Korver, Watson). The Bulls have 3 young, defensive big men with promise (Asik, Taj, Noah), 2 of whom are on very low paying deals. Because of this, the Bulls have enormous flexibility in making deals if they are willing to be aggressive. I don't believe the Bulls can afford to stand pat - but will they?
Here are 3 deals I think the Bulls could make to capitalize on their contracts and young pieces. -
1. Omer Asik, Bogans and the #30 pick for Courtney Lee, Brad Miller and the #14 pick.
Noah is the guy. He's young, he's bright, he is the emotional center of the team. Asik will never be more than a back-up here. Miller is a big body who can bang and score. Lee provides a young 2 guard who can shoot, defend and play Thibs' system. With the #14 pick you can find a Asik replacement (Nikola Vucevic) a back up for Deng (Jordan Hamilton) or hope a 2 guard of the future falls to you (Burks, Thompson)
2. OJ Mayo for Bogans, Pargo, Lucas and the #28 and #30 picks.
Basically you are trading 2 late round lottery picks for a former #4 picks. The Grizz do this deal because if they are going to resign Gasol to somewhere near $12 to $13 million a year, they are going to need draft picks signed to cheap long term deals. At this point, the best trade for them, may be one that has limited future salary commitments.
3. Taj, Watson, Lucas and Pargo, #28 and #30 picks for Garcia, Jason Thompson and the #7 pick.
Do the Sacto Kings really need another young guy? When I look at this draft, I don't see a guy better for them than Taj Gibson. Cousins and Evans are already going to take the shots. You need some athletic guys, good citizens, who are willing to play defense. That is where Watson and Taj come in. And by trading Garcia, the Kings wouldthemselves to be in a good spot post CBA, with only Beno Udrih signed to a large contract (over $5 million).
For the Bulls, Garcia is a solid upgrade over Bogans. He can shoot the 3, handle the ball and defend. Jason Thompson is a solid big man who can play center and back up Boozer. But the real prize is the #7 pick. In a time when the CBA could be hanging over the Bulls head, locking up a Alec Burks as the possible 2 guard of the future would be huge. I'd like to see them target Burks in this draft - I think he has the skillset needed to really pair with Rose. Or if Kemba Walker were to fall you'd have your back up point guard for the next 4 years.
Add your deals below. The point is the Bulls can take on salary to move up in the draft, to add a vet or to sure up the 2 guard position.
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I really like your third idea.
If they want additional savings throw Bogans in there as well, and if they don’t think they’re getting value for the seventh pick offer a future first in exchange for a second rounder.
I’d also love to get Mayo, but unfortunately I think it will take more than that.
I like deal #3
Mainly because I would like to see the Bulls get Alec Burks. I also like deal #2 because the Bulls really wouldn’t be giving up much for Mayo, which is probably why the Grizzlies wouldn’t do it.
"If the Bulls are healthy it could get ugly." - Joakim Noah
here's what I don't get about the non-guaranteed contracts, maybe I'm missing something
they used cap space to sign them, right? Wouldn’t they still be under the cap if they weren’t signed, so any trade they could just absorb the money instead of having to send out any contracts (guaranteed or not)?
I think it was just gifts to Org. soldiers.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 2, 2011 11:01 AM CDT reply actions
and if it was just gifts, the important question is
what the hell did Linton Johnson III do to not get one himself?!?!
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 2, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I think there are two advantages to non-guaranteed contracts
(1) Currently increasing spending power by 25%. If you have $4M in cap space, you can sign a player up to $4M or absorb that much in trade. If you have $4M in non-guaranteed contracts, you can sign a player up to $5M through a sign-and-trade or absorb an extra million in trade. The other team could reject a sign-and-trade offer, but it’s probably not in their interests to do so. Refusing to give up a player who you don’t want at that price or who won’t re-sign with you would reflect poorly on the organization with other players. The move is costless to the former team and essentially no different than losing a player in free agency.
(2) Being able to acquire players above the minimum salary when the new cap goes into effect and the team is capped out. With Noah’s extension, the Bulls will almost certainly be over the cap heading into next season. Without converting the cap space into non-guaranteed deals, the Bulls would be limited to whatever exceptions remain, perhaps only the ability to sign players for the minimum, or trading away useful players for value. The non-guaranteed contracts still allow them the same maneuverablity for (sign-and-) trades as before through salary matching, whereas the cap space would be gone.
by from the window to luol on Jun 2, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Right.
That’s what I’ve been thinking. Give them $100,000 only in guaranteed money for next year. Tell the guys when you sign them you’ll pay them at a vet minimum this year and an extra $100,000 bonus. But they’ll have a salary number of $1.2 million or osmething next year. Something they can use in the trade.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
ah, that makes sense
that Irwin Mandel is a crafty sonofagun
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 3, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
They could be gifts
but my understanding, and I could be wrong, is that the non-guaranteed contracts (I don’t know where I got “un” from) can be traded after the season is over, but contracts set to expire cannot be.
So despite the fact that Kurt Thomas and Butler are expiring contracts, we couldn’t use that cap space until after the new CBA is complete because they can’t be traded. But with Lucas, Pargo and Bogans, since they are not expiring, they can still be traded before the new CBA is in place and thus be used to create payroll savings for another team before the new CBA begins.
Basically it allows more flexibility before the draft.
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 2, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Im not comfortable with trading Omer
I think he can be better than Noah defensively. a lot better, because although noah can defend pick and roll good and hustle, Omer is a more traditional center
i'd be fine with trading Omer if it was for something better than Courtney Lee
he and Taj are our best trade chips. to get anyone worthwhile, we’re going to have to say goodbye to one of them.
trading taj or omer whilst keeping booz
probably dooms the team to finishing second to lebron for…. forever.
i haven’t seen a trade of taj or omer that is feasible to the trade partner, yet significantly helpful to the bulls.
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
Let the BG movement commence
"Well you're giving me the opportunity to agree with Bill Plaschke and Marriotti, I'm gonna pass" - Tim Cowlishaw
"I'm undefeated too I'm 100-0 by beating up innocent little boys in my hood like Floyd" - Random dude
"Attention Boxing Fans: Mayweather will fight Pacquiao this coming November.. its confirmed.. Bobby should train hard to beat Floyd."
Commence? It never ended.
The revolution was just forced underground for a while.
"If the Bulls are healthy it could get ugly." - Joakim Noah
In that case let my reading comprehension class commence
"Well you're giving me the opportunity to agree with Bill Plaschke and Marriotti, I'm gonna pass" - Tim Cowlishaw
"I'm undefeated too I'm 100-0 by beating up innocent little boys in my hood like Floyd" - Random dude
"Attention Boxing Fans: Mayweather will fight Pacquiao this coming November.. its confirmed.. Bobby should train hard to beat Floyd."
I think it's the second. Or bth.
I think they will use the draft picks as potential replacements for Watson, Korver, Brewer, or even Gibson or Asik. They can’t afford (or won’t) to keep multiple guys at as backups at $4-$7 million if they’re going to keep Rose, Deng and Noah (and unfortunately, boozer)
But I also think they are probably pursuing trades and/or if it one comes to them, they won’t hesitate to throw them in.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
i have no problem with trading omer but not for courtney lee.
he’s a decent guard but i can’t see him getting better. we have rose as our franchise player. we have luol as the perfect third wheel. we have jono as the energy an chemistry guy. we just need a second star. and lee is not that guy. i don’t think he will turn out more valuable.
on the other hand oj mayo would be that second star if he can reach his potential. i know he couldn’t even get near to that potential and my have some character problems but he showed that he’s getting mature under lionel hollins’ coaching. he did very good in the play-offs and i believe he can do a lot better with a better team. so losing omer or taj for a real star potential like mayo makes a lot more sense to me.
courtney lee’s length and defensive skills would work great with rose’s exploviseness and i’m not saying he’s no good but i’d rather to have mayo. actually i prefer mayo over many options like bg, j-rich, jr smith, etc. and please get battier too hehe. battier is the perfetct fit as luol’s back-up.
Grab it, Jo!
a little comparison between mayo and lee in the play-offs;
courtney lee: 21 games, 26,2 mpg, 8 ppg, 1,9 rpg, 1,3 apg, 27% 3P (12 on 44 attempts)
oj mayo: 13 games, 27.8 mpg, 11,3 ppg, 3,2 rpg, 2,4 apg, 40% 3P (20 on 49 attempts)
Grab it, Jo!
Let's not forget that Lee's numbers are all coming from when he was the 5th option on the Magic in his rookie year.
"Did Michael Jordan join the Pistons when he couldn't beat them? No. He dug down deep and went out and kicked their fucking ass."
that's true.
it would be a little unfair but both played their first play-offs in the end and mayo dealt with a lot of problems during the regular season.
Grab it, Jo!
I like Taj
I think he’s important with Boozer’s age/injury troubles, he’s a good guy to have vs the Heat, and I could see him being a useful rotation player for the next half dozen years or more.
I’d trade Asik. His contract is up after next season, he’s blocked by Noah, and the broken leg is now his 3rd big injury since 2008. I think he’s worth around a top 10 pick in this draft. Assuming Burks looks as good in HD as he does in 8-bit (still can’t find a good video of him), I’d be trading up to take him, and replace Asik by signing Foster/Hayes in free agency. That way you keep your awesome defense at backup center, and you pickup a possible solution at SG.
I went back and forth on who to include in these trades, Taj or Asik
I think you are probably right. Noah is going to be the guy at center going forward, while I think Boozer/Taj is a bit more up in the air. I think Taj is going to develop a much better offensive game than Asik, he has the ability to guard stretch 4s and I’m a bit worried about Asik’s physical health.
And I believe that either Taj or Asik will command a pick from 7 to 14 in this draft. I’d be willing to give up Asik if it meant drafting Burks (that is, if he is all he appears to be; like you I haven’t been able find anything other than grainy footage to judge him by) just because it would balance the roster. Having an Asik type talent at the 2 is more important than having a guy of that talent backing up Noah.
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 2, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree that Taj is nice Boozer insurance
But couldn’t we just consider Noah that? If Boozer goes down, just slide Noah over to PF and play Asik alongside him.
There’s more flexibility with a rotation of Noah-Boozer-Asik. I’m really not crazy about the Boozer-Taj front-court, whereas I think there is a lot of potential in both Asik-Boozer and Asik-Noah.
Asik isn’t quite the rounded offensive player Taj is, but he is more of an impact player on the defensive end. In other words, I think Asik’s defensive presence brings more to the table than Taj’s superior offense, especially when you couple it with the greater flexibility of line-ups.
As for the injury concerns, well, they are valid. However, to my knowledge none of the injuries are related, and Taj has battled plantar fascitis for both of his first two seasons.
It’s a bit of a toss up for me, and for the right player I won’t be upset either way, but ultimately I think a Taj-like player is a lot easier to find than an Asik-like one.
by jpm356 on Jun 3, 2011 12:10 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm a bit wary of a Asik-Noah, or a Taj-Noah frontcourt for that matter
wouldn’t it be nice to have some kind of inside shot creation? at all?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 3, 2011 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how that would be
I can’t remember such an offense in Chicago.
We do have to realize that with a guy like Korver, inside scoring that draws doubles is a great way to create outside shots.
You mean you don't consider Noah's left handed dribble hook inside shot creation???
Kidding, but I agree with you on that one.
In my scenario I’m REALLY counting on Noah to improve that elbow jumper, and even maybe pick up a post move or two.
Taj-Boozer is just too undersized, and as good as Taj is defensively he’s not as good as Asik or Noah and cannot make up for Boozer’s flaws like they can.
Boozer doesn't really create shots inside, though. He gets his points off of rebounds and pick and pop jumpers.
He rarely creates shots inside for himself and when he does, he struggles to finish. I’d rather see Joakim shoot his little flip shot than see Boozer try to get a shot off inside, honestly.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 3, 2011 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed. If Noah and Boozer are both going to the basket, I always feel more confident in Noah finishing the play.
Me and my friend actually starting making fun of Boozer’s inability to finish when he gets fouled. We yell “And 2!” whenever Boozer does that.
The Houston deal makes a lot of sense, with a minor tweak
I think Asik will be a beast defensively, but he’s never going to start over Noah. I would tweak your proposed deal by adding HOU’s 23rd, taking Miller out and sending our pick at 28, instead of 30. There’s no need to take on Miller’s salary, I’m pretty sure Asik and Lee’s salary numbers are close enough to straight up. With the 14th, 23rd, and 30th picks, you can pickup a backup SF, replacement for Asik at C, and a backup combo G. We get a quality if not superior starting SG, while still keeping Bogans, JL3, and Pargo’s non-guaranteeds for another deal.
by Ceasaleo on Jun 2, 2011 4:21 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I don't know if you find a backup center as good as Miller
in the draft, via another trade or through free agency plus getting out from under Miller’s salary I would think would be part of the reason Houston does the trade in the 1st place.
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 2, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the Bulls will wait until the new CBA is set
to make any moves.
Not only will it be much clearer on just how much cap space and assets the team will have to work with, there also might be more players and more teams willing to trade. If the CBA dramatically reduces the salary cap, then alot of teams will be forced to waive or trade their players to get under the cap. The waived players will also be eager to sign cheap contracts just so they have somewhere to play next season.
I think they may too, and that it's a dumb idea
The idea of a reduced, hard cap with no rollbacks or any kind of easing-in implementation is so far-fetched they shouldn’t ‘prepare’ for it at the expense of being aggressive to get better.
But they’re laughing all the way to the bank.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 3, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I thought more than that was turned down
I heard Bulls offered Brewer and 3 #1’s for Mayo at deadline and ultimately they opted for Josh McRoberts and Indy’s #1, which thankfully was agreed upon too late in the day to be accepted.
Heisley doesn’t like the Bulls (not totally sure why but would love to hear an attempt at a justifiable explanation)- and deal with them will be near impossible.
by Dan.The.Man. on Jun 3, 2011 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I think that we have a better package possible.
Korver might fit in well with their team, and Asik would be a good backup for Gasol. With the possibility of losing Asik to FA after next year, I think we should package him and a SG with filler and picks for whoever we get.
I'm not sure I can stand months of speculation
about trades and free agents. Especially if it turns out to be a year of speculation.
uh its the offseason
what do you expect?
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 3, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
It's a hell of a lot better than this time last year
Well, isn't what LeBron did last night the living embodiment of The Secret, leaving millions on the table and turning himself into a hometown villain, all for the sake of winning?
Neil Paine, basketball-reference.com
I think this trade makes some sense for all teams
Charlotte trades S.Jax, DJ White, #9 pick
Charlotte receives Monta Ellis,
Bulls trade Brewer, Pargo, Lucas, #28 pick and #30 pick
Bulls receive S. Jax and #9 pick
Golden state trades Monta Ellis
Golden state receives Brewer, Pargo, Lucas, #28 and #30 picks
Why Charlotte does it: They could use a go to scorer and “star” player. Monta Ellis could use a situation where he has free reign with the ball. Its a good match. With the #19 pick they could pick someone like Nikola Vucevic or Kenneth Faried to help them with their inside depth. I think this is kind of a steal for Charlotte and debated whether to include #19 pick.
Why Chicago does it: I know not many people like SJax, but he has only 2 years left on his contract. He can play the 2 or the 3 meaning he could be used as a starter or as Deng’s primary back up. With the #9 pick I’d take either Thompson or Burks. The more read about Thompson, the more I like him, but Burks has the greater upside and potential. The Bulls would get immediate back court help, and a 2 guard of the future. Some people may say the #9 pick is a steep price for taking on SJax contract, but last year at the trade deadline Charlotte couldn’t give Jax away. Now for the #9 pick and SJax they get Monta Ellis. Pretty good.
Why GS does it: They simply aren’t going to get many great offers for Ellis. He is overpaid and hasn’t proven anything in this league. Golden State, despite being awful, is $10 million over the cap. This trade would save them $6 million next year and $11 million 2 years from now. It gives Jerry West a chance to remake the franchise. Plus Brewer is probably a good fit next to Curry, is a defensive presence and will get them going up and down the court.
Bulls would end up with:
Rose/Watson
Burks/ Jackson / Korver / Bogans
Deng / Jackson / Korver
Boozer / Taj
Noah / Asik
A potentially serious talent upgrade at minimum cost.
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 4, 2011 5:03 PM CDT reply actions
i guess golden state might
might do that for the $aving$…. at least it’s not: let’s trade our good big youngish defenders for smalls (that don’t defend) in the name of “shot creation”. when boozer is the big that needs to go.
not a big sjax fan, but he could help them beat miami. i just don’t know if they can overcome boozer, however.
can we trade him to phoenix (with picks, perhaps) for channing frye and a bad contract or contracts (warrick, childress)?
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
i should mention
it’s ironic that boozer played as expected, really. noah and rose get my vote as underperformers vs miami, and the games were oh-so-close, so maybe they can get past them with booz? ::shrugs::
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
maybe i am undervaluing Ellis
Could Golden State get the #2 pick for him? Could they get Josh Smith? I don’t know. A lot of times when these pseudo all stars are moved its for savings, and not necessarily an equal value thing.
I have to say, if I was Minnesota, I’d be intrigued by offering the #2 for him. Rubio, Ellis, Beasley, Love is the start of something. Not something that great, but better than they have had.
I just believe the Bulls should be one the more aggressive teams come draft time trying to obtain a 2 guard.
by Basketball Smurf on Jun 4, 2011 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Ellis, in the right situation, could be pretty great. But it's not going to be on a team like the TWolves.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 4, 2011 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions
i like monta more than kevin martin
but only a little more. i still remember the job he and curry (another non-defender) did trapping rose.
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
I think Kevin Martin is a bit better fit with Rose, because he doesn't NEED the ball to be effective, whereas Monta does.
Ideally, the Bulls want someone who can handle the rock when Rose is pressed, but who can be primarily effective without it. Kevin Martin’s that guy, Monta’s not.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 4, 2011 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions
with me and kevin martin
i know he can shoot the three ball and gets to the foul line. doesn’t defend, but at least he’s “big”, unlike monta. he fits better in every way, but monta would be a terrible fit (especially so if boozer stays!).
i just really hate his game. i don’t think i could take watching rose not get deserved calls while his mate in the back court gets bailed out constantly.
if you can trade booz for him, i’ll accept kevin martin. but houston has no need for boozer.
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
besides
this was originally about stephan jackson, not monta ellis or kevin martin. plus a nice pick bump.
♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫
I don't really disagree with you about Martin
However, has Martin every been in a situation where he wasn’t the ball dominant guard? I guess a positive for Monta is that he’s had to adapt his playing style with other wing players who (kind of) dominate the ball (Davis, Jackson, and Curry come to mind), albeit he certainly hasn’t done so efficiently.
"If the Bulls are healthy it could get ugly." - Joakim Noah
Martin runs off of screens and stuff with a lot more frequency and effectiveness than Monta.
Aaron Brooks handled the ball a lot in his time in Houston, as did Kyle Lowry. In Sacramento, he had various others he shared the ball successfully with.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 4, 2011 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions
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