Why are the stat-heads complaining?

by poker_punker on Apr 9, 2011 7:08 PM CDT

Guys, I know this is like beating a dead horse, but I just wanted to put my 2 cents on it. It's been a while since the stat-based sports writers (Hollinger, Ziller, Abbott, among others) have stated that Derrick Rose doesn't deserve the MVP award based on his stats. It's been a recurring theme all season, to the point where there's been a "fight" (sort of) going on between Bulls Fan and the stat community.

All that being said, Is Derrick Rose really not that good according to Advanced Metrics?

When it comes to Advanced Metrics, I think there are some that, for whatever reason, stand the most: I´m taking about PER and Win Shares (WS). I think it's probably because they're kind of "whole impact" metrics: they try to measure the overall impact of the player in the game (although is already clear PER is focused on offense), based on player and team stats.

Well, among those 2, I chose 5 to make a bit of analysis: PER, Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares and Win Shares Per 48 minutes. There were different observations from the data (updated to 08/04):

- Only 7 players are in the Top 10 in PER, WS per 48 (pro-rated impact) and WS (overall impact): James, Howard, Wade, Love, Paul, Gasol and Rose.

- Only 2 players are in the Top 10 in all five categories: LeBron James and Derrick Rose.

- Win Shares excluded, Derrick is always in the bottom half of the top 10 in each category. Defensive Win Shares excluded, LeBron is always in the top half of the top 10 in each category.

- Dwight's PER and Defensive Metrics are amazing; however, his OWS is more than 30% less than the one LeBron's got.

- CP3 seems very consistent in his position in every metric. He's only out of the Top 10 in DWS - and Derrick is ahead of him.

- Except for PER (where he's only 0.3 behind), Pau Gasol is ahead of Kobe in every other stat. In fact, Kobe's WS are behind LeBron's OWS.

Well, based on these 5 metrics, if one were to make a ranking, it would end up something like this:

1. LeBron James

2a. Dwight Howard

2b. Chris Paul

4. Pau Gasol

5a. Dwyane Wade

5b. Derrick Rose

So, worst case scenario, Rose would be tied 5th in these rankings...and that's when we gotta realize that:

- The guy tied with Derrick in the 5th spot (Dwyane), is playing with the BEST players according to these metrics; that fact alone should give Derrick the tie-breaker with him.

- Gasol is probably not considered the best player in his team - whether he is or not. Kobe's stats are not bad at all (and if we considered he has the highest usage of them all, it's even better), so there's the influence of having a top 10 player sharing the court with you and being your team go-to scorer.

With those two points, the only guys that should be above Derrick are: LeBron, Dwight and CP3.

Now, if we start accounting for things that cannot be put in stats (such as expectations exceeded or leadership skills, somthing both LeBron and Dwight seem to lack), why can't Derrick be the MVP? I understand voting for LeBron or Dwight (homestly, I'll probably vote for Dwight if given a vote), but Derrick being the MVP is not something feeling enraged about.

Oh, and just to finish, FUCK RONDO.

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Comments

Well written, but a couple things to add

Most of these all encompassing stats are really measuring the same thing. The fact that LeBron is near the top of the top and Rose is closer to the bottom of the top is not saying a whole heck of alot. In reality, you are comparing a lot of the same qualities when comparing WS and PER.

Two things that stats fail to take into account is position played and role on the team. LeBron does not need to be the primary scorer every game, whereas Rose does. Dwight is probably not going to be handling the ball when his team is down 3 and needs a bucket, but Rose will. It is virtually impossible to account for all of these subtleties.

This brings up my final point. In any statistic, there is a certain amount of error involved. ASPM is perhaps the best all encompassing stat there is, but there is a ton of standard error even over the course of a two year period. Statistics have error involved. If a guy is in the top 10 of even one of these statistical metrics, they are certainly a viable MVP candidate. At that point, it’s all about who has done more to bring their team closer to a title. That is purely a subjective call. YaoPau referenced similar ideas in this post. Stats are just one way to look at players. There are too many ideas to consider, so in the end, unless you are picking someone who is not even a top 25 player in the NBA, you aren’t really wrong.

"Mental toughness is to physical as four is to one." - Bob Knight

by DRose01 on Apr 9, 2011 8:19 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Let's keep this simple

2000 points
300 rebounds
600 assists

Rose has done it. Here’s who else:

Jordan
LeBron
Havlicek
Oscar Robertson

Every single one of those guys won MVP; or at least a Finals MVP.

"4 inches, baby!" --ripped off from Kush
1/27/11 - The day the nerdosphere and their stats jumped the shark, trying to use them to disprove the obvious.

by anorexorcist on Apr 11, 2011 10:12 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Rose hit these arbitrary statistical benchmarks not many others have

therefore he is awesome!!!

I only post cotton candy. Because it's delicious.

by Prevenge on Apr 14, 2011 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions

yes, i know

he is pretty awesome

"4 inches, baby!" --ripped off from Kush
1/27/11 - The day the nerdosphere and their stats jumped the shark, trying to use them to disprove the obvious.

by anorexorcist on Apr 15, 2011 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions

Rose wins because the Bulls hit 60 wins.

And there are no Spurs players on your list. It’s all about the best player on the best team, and since the Lakers faded Rose has had that locked up. LeBron might have had a chance if the he and the Heat hadn’t fallen so far short of expectations.

by Tim S. on Apr 11, 2011 10:36 AM CDT reply actions

A fine analysis of the stats....

…but anyone who would vote for Dwight Howard for MVP this year hasn’t been paying attention to the NBA MVP award for the past 30 years.

With the exception of Jordan’s historic 1988 season (35 PPG, 31.7 PER, 21 win shares, Defensive POY and a league-leading team defense), no MVP winner has come from a team as bad as this year’s Magic since Moses Malone on Houston in 1982.

Is Dwight Howard having a great year? Yes. A historically great defensive year? Yes. But there is no way he is the MVP of the league, or even should be in the discussion with Rose, LeBron, Wade, Dirk and Kobe, on basically a 50-win Orlando team. To do so would turn decades of NBA history on its head. He simply didn’t do enough offensively to justify voting for him over worthy candidates from better teams.

I could see an argument for LeBron, but the Heat got swept by the Bulls….that should count against him when going up against Rose. Team record and head-to-head matchups count, over the course of an entire season.

Applying the historic standards, Rose is the clear MVP.

I will never doubt the Chairman again.

by nateroth on Apr 11, 2011 11:38 AM CDT reply actions

Yes, and that's what I don't like about the statheads' arguments.

It’s fine to argue that the historical standards should change, but don’t beat up on Bulls fans for relying on historical standards to call Rose the MVP. Rose is not the statistically-best player in the league but he is the clear MVP of the league — deal with it.

by Tim S. on Apr 11, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions