Guys, I know this is like beating a dead horse, but I just wanted to put my 2 cents on it. It's been a while since the stat-based sports writers (Hollinger, Ziller, Abbott, among others) have stated that Derrick Rose doesn't deserve the MVP award based on his stats. It's been a recurring theme all season, to the point where there's been a "fight" (sort of) going on between Bulls Fan and the stat community.
All that being said, Is Derrick Rose really not that good according to Advanced Metrics?When it comes to Advanced Metrics, I think there are some that, for whatever reason, stand the most: I´m taking about PER and Win Shares (WS). I think it's probably because they're kind of "whole impact" metrics: they try to measure the overall impact of the player in the game (although is already clear PER is focused on offense), based on player and team stats.
Well, among those 2, I chose 5 to make a bit of analysis: PER, Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares and Win Shares Per 48 minutes. There were different observations from the data (updated to 08/04):
- Only 7 players are in the Top 10 in PER, WS per 48 (pro-rated impact) and WS (overall impact): James, Howard, Wade, Love, Paul, Gasol and Rose.
- Only 2 players are in the Top 10 in all five categories: LeBron James and Derrick Rose.
- Win Shares excluded, Derrick is always in the bottom half of the top 10 in each category. Defensive Win Shares excluded, LeBron is always in the top half of the top 10 in each category.
- Dwight's PER and Defensive Metrics are amazing; however, his OWS is more than 30% less than the one LeBron's got.
- CP3 seems very consistent in his position in every metric. He's only out of the Top 10 in DWS - and Derrick is ahead of him.
- Except for PER (where he's only 0.3 behind), Pau Gasol is ahead of Kobe in every other stat. In fact, Kobe's WS are behind LeBron's OWS.
Well, based on these 5 metrics, if one were to make a ranking, it would end up something like this:
1. LeBron James
2a. Dwight Howard
2b. Chris Paul
4. Pau Gasol
5a. Dwyane Wade
5b. Derrick Rose
So, worst case scenario, Rose would be tied 5th in these rankings...and that's when we gotta realize that:
- The guy tied with Derrick in the 5th spot (Dwyane), is playing with the BEST players according to these metrics; that fact alone should give Derrick the tie-breaker with him.
- Gasol is probably not considered the best player in his team - whether he is or not. Kobe's stats are not bad at all (and if we considered he has the highest usage of them all, it's even better), so there's the influence of having a top 10 player sharing the court with you and being your team go-to scorer.
With those two points, the only guys that should be above Derrick are: LeBron, Dwight and CP3.
Now, if we start accounting for things that cannot be put in stats (such as expectations exceeded or leadership skills, somthing both LeBron and Dwight seem to lack), why can't Derrick be the MVP? I understand voting for LeBron or Dwight (homestly, I'll probably vote for Dwight if given a vote), but Derrick being the MVP is not something feeling enraged about.
Oh, and just to finish, FUCK RONDO.
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