Hollinger's All-Defense Teams (Insider)
John delves into defense. Ronnie Brewer and Taj Gibson make his second team, and Luol, Omer, and Noah get honorable mentions.
about 1 year ago
arjoseph
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that's what you get when you try to see defense only by stats
so muchmore than that… is not just about numbers
by JustAnotherFan on Apr 6, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
If I have to be the Hollinger apologist, so be it:
He explicitly says that his picks are subjective. He looks into plus/minus, but he explicitly states it was only a piece of data, not the determining factor. He based his decisions mostly on his subjective evaluation of each player, players he’s watched play copious amounts (he goes to tons of games and watches many more on tape/TV).
For instance, if it were all about the numbers, no way Noah’s plus-4.57 rating gets him an honorable mention. Including Noah is a purely subjective decision on his part.
by arjoseph on Apr 6, 2011 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
"Where Paul Pierce is a better defender than Luol Deng"
Whatever his methodology, I don’t buy that claim.
What's really so hilarious is that his anti-Rose MVP campaign is all about rewarding the players' who contribute most to the reason's behind why an elite team is so successful
So Rose shouldn’t win MVP because it’s the team’s defense that deserves to be credited and honored as the real MVP, yet none of the players on the leagues best defensive team are in his all NBA defensive first team.
This makes a whole lotta sense in you’re world John, but none in mine
by Option27 on Apr 6, 2011 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs
To play devil's advocate:
(1) He would point out that no other team has as many players in his all-defense article. Boston has two third-teamers, a first-teamer, and Glen Davis as an honorable mention, but is that really more impressive than two second-teamers and three honorable mentions, two of which (Omer and Deng) he hints strongly are on the level of third teamers? In a way, he gives tons of props to the Bulls team in this article.
(2) He would probably also point out that Thibs has much more of a defensive impact than any individual player on the Bulls team. He mentions a couple of times the influence of coaching or the “team concept.” This has a ring of truth to me. Yes, we have the personnel to implement a great defense, but we all know (or should by now) that defense is much more of a team game than an individual game.
I don’t think this article makes him a hypocrite at all with his MVP stance. (Now, it doesn’t make him right, but I think he’s being consistent.)
by arjoseph on Apr 6, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
this part doesn't hold water
He would probably also point out that Thibs has much more of a defensive impact than any individual player on the Bulls team.
Thibs isn’t on the court. Someone has to execute the defense. You wouldn’t kick Troy Palumalu off the all-defensive NFL team just because Mike Tomlin is good at coaching corner backs – someone still needs to execute those instructions.
by Basketball Smurf on Apr 6, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
First:
Polamalu isn’t a corner, he’s a safety.
Second, defense in football doesn’t analogize to defense in basketball that well, I don’t think.
Third, are you serious? Sure, the players execute the defense. But what I said was that the defensive scheme/influence of the coach is arguably more important/impactful than any individual player,* at least in a positive sense. For a defense to be effective, every player must buy into the concept and be dilligent in executing the game plan. If even one player is not making proper rotations (coughBoozercough), the whole team defense suffers. There have been numerous examples of players not known for defense switching teams (or the team switching coaches) and suddenly becoming an asset at that end, all because of the coaching.
The one exception to this trend, I think, is if you have a dominant big man to protect the rim, a la Howard. He can have an outsized impact because he’s in a unique position to “correct” the mistakes of his teammates. This is one reason why I don’t like Hollinger’s argument in favor of Howard and against Rose, incidentally — sure, Howard might be the best at what he does, but Rose’s position as PG doesn’t even afford him the opportunity to be as impactful. In fact, you *expect a center to have a bigger defensive impact than a guard due to the nature of their position.
by arjoseph on Apr 6, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
first who cares what position Palumalu plays, the point is the same
second – the way I analogized them makes perfect sense.
Third – are you serious? Coaches in general have much more impact on a team’s defense (and offense) in football than they do in basketball. Its not even close. The Bulls were ranked 11 in def rating last season – even with a boob for the coach, Rose not nearly as good as he is now, and no Omer, this was still one of the best defensive teams in the league. In fact they were in the top 10 for most of last year until the Bulls traded Tyrus and Salmons. The fact of the matter is the Bulls have good defensive players. Noah, Deng, Bogans, Taj, Omer, Brewer, Watson – all these guys are better on D than on O. Only Rose, Boozer and Korver could be described as primarily offensive guys. Without much thought, effort or planning this team was in the top 1/3 of defensive teams last year. It was the players.
In football teams go through players like toilet paper. Monte Kiffin managed a top 10 defense over a ten year period in Tampa Bay constantly changing starters, getting new people in to the system and plugging holes.
In both situations its all about getting players to execute your system. Thibs is a good coach, but he couldn’t turn Phoenix or Golden State into a top 10 defensive team playing their current rotations. Those teams just don’t have the personnel.
by Basketball Smurf on Apr 6, 2011 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's great
So according to Hollinger, all you need is 15 guys and Thibodeau, and you win 60 games
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Apr 6, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
You really don't get it. And I'm not so sure what to make of your pro-Hollinger bit but
The Bulls best defender on a consistent basis is Luol Deng. The fact that he chooses to completely ignore that and push Paul Pierce into the conversation because he’s been above average is just a really bad comedy.
There’s a reason Brewer and Taj get mentioned. It’s cause Hollinger is so in love with the Bench Mob story that he’s throwing it out there to be a man against the norm. Everyday folk will look at this list and say, “Where are the Bulls players that WE know? (Noah, Deng)”. Hollinger’s response to them is “Screw all this Bulls love. I’m sick of their fans but I have to give them some credit cause they’re really an amazing defense. Let’s throw in the bench guys to be a little unconventional! But I’ll keep them away from the top spots cause thatks just too much love”
by Option27 on Apr 6, 2011 5:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Except he doesn't completely ignore Deng
He gives him an honorable mention and states that he’s actually pretty surprised Deng didnt end up higher.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Honorable mentions means nuthin really
by Option27 on Apr 6, 2011 8:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Here's exactly what he said about Deng
I’m sort of amazed that I don’t have room for Chicago’s Luol Deng (minus-1.07), who was very strong both as an individual and a team defender.
Yes, he snubbed him in favor of Paul Pierce, but at the same time, he does give Deng a decent share of credit.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Apr 6, 2011 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not really sure what to make of your anti-Hollinger bit.
What basis at all do you have to impute such motives to him? Sure, he’s in love with the Bench Mob story, but it also happens to be a true story — we have a dominant defensive bench. I happen to love it too. Now, I don’t think it denigrates Rose’s MVP campaign, but that’s a separate issue . . . or at least it should be. It seems to me that all of the people on here who continually bash Hollinger are so enraged by his wrong-headed view of Rose’s value that they discount anything he has to say on any subject, and think that he’s somehow spitefully motivated. The thing is, he’s always been a Deng supporter, back when many on this board were not. Now that everyone here is in love with Deng, Hollinger’s a bad guy because his opinion has been consistent over the years? That doesn’t make sense.
Perhaps Hollinger is as cynical and spiteful as you say. But I don’t think it likely. I think it more likely that those Bulls fans who hate him are the cynical ones.
(Hollinger used to get this crap all the time about Kobe, too, pointing out that he wasn’t as clutch as everyone thought and that he wasn’t as efficient a scorer, and that the Lakers do their best when he’s not dominating the ball. Lakers fans would irrationally blame him of “hating” Kobe and the Lakers, when in fact he was just pointing out that Kobe was not God on Earth. He consistently said that Kobe was one of the best players in the league. But apparently many Laker fans couldn’t handle the complex idea that a really good player might not be perfect.)
You're logic is completely faulty
The all defensive team and defensive player of the year awards are individual achievements and thus awards the best individual defensive players. Just because the Bulls have the best TEAM defense, does not imply that they have a superstar defender on their team. It only means that the entire team plays defense well. I’d rank Deng a bit higher, but I have no problem where he is. Deng’s value is that he does a lot of little things well while playing a lot of minutes, though he doesn’t excel in any specific area.
by berzerkulous on Apr 6, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Another point defending Hollinger (besides my two replies above):
To all those who think he’s irredeemably biased against the Bulls, he completely acknowledges Ronnie Brewer’s defensive value (despite stating earlier in the year that he wasn’t this good of a defender), and he states that Omer is “my favorite defender to watch in the whole league.” He even calls Sheek “my guy.”
Look, Hollinger’s analysis for MVP purposes is woefully incomplete, and he rates Rose way too low (even for those who don’t think he should win MVP, Hollinger’s placement of him outside the top 5 is ridiculous). But the dude is very considered in his opinions, and he’s not as much of a stat slave as people make him out to be. He knows basketball well, he watches tons of games, he acknowledges the limitations with certain advanced stats (i.e., PER does not include defense, plus/minus is noisy and is too influenced by situations, like who your back up is, etc.). While I think Deng should have made at least third team, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute should also have rated higher, I think this is a pretty solid list. At the very least, it’s well thought-out.
by arjoseph on Apr 6, 2011 3:39 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think he's irredeemably biased against Rose
because Rose doesn’t fit the profile he’s constructed using his own opinion. He’s just too reliant on stats to the point where he disregards the eye. That’s my issue with him. I have no doubt that if Rose puts up a 30 PER next year, Hollinger would be his biggest MVP candidate.
by kozzer on Apr 6, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, I R dum
because my post clearly implies that he’s NOT irredeemably biased against Rose. Just biased against Rose.
I don't think he disregards the eye, but I do think he values efficiency perhaps too highly.
And I do agree that because Rose does not fit his conception of efficient PG, Hollinger is not properly valuing him.
But I still think
he doesn’t understand overall player impact vs. individual accomplishment. Ronnie Brewer may be a better defender than Deng, although I don’t believe so, but he has also played 1300 fewer minutes than Deng, and particularly much fewer minutes at the end of games. So who deserves a 2nd team defensive selection? The guy who comes in and plays good D for 15 minutes a game or the guy playing good D for 38 minutes a game?
In that sense his whole analysis of the Bulls is skewed. He seems to believe the Bulls win every game in the first 6 minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters and thus he wants to attribute almost all the Bulls success to the bench. I think the Bulls play pretty good D for 48 minutes, of which Deng, Noah and Rose are key parts. I think the loss of Deng would hurt the Bulls more than the loss of Brewer on the defensive end simply because he plays so many more minutes.
He mixes and matches impact v. individual accomplishment when it suits his purpose. In one breath he is comparing the numbers of Lebron and Rose to prove that Lebron is more deserving of the MVP, in the next minute he is talking about Kobe being more deserving because the Lakers have finished the season strong.
I simply don’t believe that Paul Pierce is one of the top individual defenders in his position. That choice can only be justified as a reflection of what Boston is doing and how may minutes Pierce plays. He seems unwilling to give the Bulls players those same allowances.
by Basketball Smurf on Apr 6, 2011 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah deng is tops in minutes on the team
and often has the toughest assignment on the floor. he’s also played 400 more minutes than paul pierce.
Look
I didn’t want to offend anyone by saying the "f" word or generalizing my statement to any particular sex by saying "gays" or lesbians" or "bi’s" so "homos" is the most "politically correct" term. I’m just trying to be more tact in a tactless blog.
by Hindut Patrol on Feb 15, 2011 2:51 PM EST
by Jaina on Apr 6, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
On the Brewer vs. Deng point
The All-Defense Team selections are by position. Brewer making it is no comment on Deng because they play different positions (for the most part). Brewer is higher ranked in his position because there are relatively fewer good defenders at SG than at SF.
by arjoseph on Apr 6, 2011 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
"I simply don’t believe that Paul Pierce is one of the top individual defenders in his position."
I actually like Pierce as a player, but – having watched a non-trivial number of Celtics games this year – I’d have to agree with that statement (though such agreement is entirely premised on my highly subjective watching, and nothing else).
Yeah I dislike how Hollinger seems to give very little consideration to total minutes played.
And yes, I also agree that Pierce is not an elite defender, but apparently Hollinger thinks he is, so whatever. This is what happens when you talk about things that are so subjective in nature: people disagree and it’s pretty much impossible to prove anybody else is wrong.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Which makes it funny that Hollinger can't win for trying.
Depend too much on objective stats: you’re ignoring what’s plainly visible! Don’t you ever watch the games?!
Give a subjective opinion: you’re obviously wrong! My subjective opinion is way better than yours! Do you even watch the games?!
You're missing the point
people are saying these things about Hollinger because he’s being inconsistent with his rationales. On offense, he only considers statistics, statistics and statistics – which is fine, not everyone agrees with that priority, but it’s a reasonable position. On defense, however, he goes the other way – disregarding some statistics because they don’t conform to his own subjective opinion.
So the problem is that on O, stats determine his opinion, and on D his opinion determines which stats he’ll accept.
How is that inconsistent?
It is much harder to measure defense statistically than it is offense. On offense, there is simply way more data: points, obviously, but also assists, shooting percentages, turnovers, etc., all of which impact effectiveness on offense. We can break things down by shooting percentage at various spots on the floor; effectiveness at different times of the game; etc.
With defense, however, you’re basically trying to prove a negative: what impact did you have, as an individual, on preventing the other team from scoring? I.e., did you contribute to ensuring that an event did not happen? That is a much harder thing to substantiate with statistics, especially considering that defense is so team-based and because, no matter how good you are on defense, ultimately the offensive player you’re guarding has the most power over whether the scoring event happens or not. We have measurable things like blocks and steals, but what is their value in this analysis? Steals change possession, which is always good, but are you getting steals because you’re constantly gambling? How many possessions do you cause a break-down in the team defense because you gambled and missed? And when you block a shot, do you rocket it out-of-bounds like Howard does every time, or do you deflect it gently or direct it toward your team so that it actually constitutes a change of possession (like Duncan usually does)? If your opponent has a bad shooting game, is it because you were constantly contesting shots or forcing him away from his prefered shooting spots, or was it because your teammates are so good at rotating that even though he beat your ass, the team forced him to take bad shots? In theory, these things can be measured and counted, but the man-power involved is prohibitive, and there will still be an element of subjectivity (just like there is with assists, but unlike there is with a shot going in or not).
Offense is subject to much more statistical measurement than defense. Why is it inconsistent to use stats more heavily in one area and not the other, then?
I will add one more thing
I think Brewer is the more talented defender than Deng, however Deng is playing above average defense at 39 MPG, which should provide more value to the team than what Brewer does in his 22 MPG. In that way maybe Deng deserves that spot over Brewer.
In the end
I bet Hollinger’s All-Defense team selections will end up looking more fair than the actual award selections, which will be heavily anchored by past-season reputation.
by jpx7 on Apr 6, 2011 4:48 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
LOL?
johnhollinger John Hollinger
toughest omissions: Afflalo, Bogans, and Odom
emphasis mine
"I ran into lebron last night, asked him for a dollar. He gave me 75 cents. I was puzzled, then realized he never gives you the fourth quarter"
by sin on Apr 6, 2011 5:53 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Why funny?
Bogans is a good defender. People only tend to notice the bad things he does.
Road to the Number 1 Seed Assassination Missions:
Suns: Mission Accomplished... I guess. Still 3 up in the loss column... I guess. Can't believe we got bullied by the corpse of Vince Carter.
Celtics:
Cavaliers:
Congratulations to the Central Division Champions: The Chicago Bulls!
This will be my last Assassination Missions sig for a month. After the Celtics game I leave to China and will not return until May 9th. I'm sure you all care, of course.
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Apr 6, 2011 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions
good, but not good enough to be mentioned with afflalo and odom!
scalabrine runs everything. fuck scalabrine!
To keep this in context:
He was a tough omission for the honor of honorable mention . . . which I guess he kind of gets anyway by being mentioned as a tough omission. Ultimately, he wasn’t quite good enough for Hollinger to consider him one of the top 52 (or whatever) defenders in the league.
Not a big deal.
shock writer
plain and simple.
If life's is dream, why sleep at all? - BK
by Belize on Apr 6, 2011 6:45 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
For those who don't have insider, here is everything Hollinger said regarding a Bulls player
Second team: Ronnie Brewer, Chicago (minus-8.04). He’s still not a shutdown one-on-one defender in the classic sense, but he improved drastically in this area with the Bulls after largely failing as a defensive stopper in Utah. The real asset Brewer brings, however, is his spectacular nose for the ball; Brewer is fourth in the league in steals per minute despite playing in a heavily structured defensive system that discourages gambling. Combining the two, he was one of the major reasons the Bulls’ bench had such a monstrous defensive impact this year.
I’m sort of amazed that I don’t have room for Chicago’s Luol Deng (minus-1.07), who was very strong both as an individual and a team defender
Second team: Taj Gibson, Chicago (minus-1.59). It’s rare for a second-year player to move this far up the list in the frontcourt, but Gibson has shown as both a starter and a reserve that he can impact games with his length and mobility. I’m particularly fond of the Gibson-Omer Asik pairing off Chicago’s bench; opponents simply don’t score any points when those two are manning the frontcourt together. Gibson is the prototype 4 for the way the game is played today — he can pick up guards on switches, he can challenge shots on the perimeter, but he has just enough size to defend the rim and hold his own against post-ups.
And you know it’s crowded when I can’t even find room for my guy, my favorite defender to watch in the whole league — unheralded Bulls rookie Omer Asik (minus-10.49), and yes, that says minus 10. Watch this kid play D during the postseason. He’s going to be in the top two at this position before long.
So, to summarize, yes, Pierce over Deng is pretty questionable, and I’d say Rose’s D has improved enough where an honorable mention could be justified (CJ Watson has a case too), but it seems to me that Hollinger’s bestowed a pretty decent amount of praise for the Bulls here. In fact, I’d even say he gives too much credit to Brewer and Taj considering that they don’t play a whole ton of minutes.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Apr 6, 2011 11:43 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
This guy is just another retarded troll,
and you’re all breaking rule 14.
by obnoxious american on Apr 7, 2011 3:40 AM CDT reply actions
oh yeah, and people actually PAY for this shit?!
by obnoxious american on Apr 7, 2011 3:41 AM CDT reply actions
Taj as 2nd Team All-Defense?
That’s just crazy. Even ignoring his low minute totals, Taj isn’t an elite defender. His on-court rating is especially good because he’s typically on the court with a few elite defensive players: Asik, Brewer, and Deng.
Ranking Taj that high demonstrates a misreading of the stats. Four of Taj’s five most common lineups include at least two of Asik, Brewer, and Deng (with Def Rtgs 96.30 or better); two of those lineups include all three players (with Def Rtgs of 79.93 and 84.45).
When you try to disentangle Taj’s performance from the other players, it’s clear that Taj isn’t the reason for those stellar ratings. Limiting the analysis to lineups with an adjusted +/- rating — ie 25 minutes or more — several of Brewer’s best defensive lineups do not include Taj (6 of his top 10), but all of his worst lineups do (Taj is part of each of Brewer’s bottom 5).
With Asik, it doesn’t much matter who’s on the court with him. Every lineup has an outstanding Def Rtg. and there’s no evidence Taj is playing a major role in it. Whether you look at Asik’s 8 lineups with 25+ minutes or 11 lineups with 20+ minutes, his worst Def Rtg includes Taj and his best does not. His average rating with Taj is no better than his average rating without him.
Deng’s worst 3 lineups by Def Rtg include Taj. Though Taj is part of Deng’s best defensive lineup, Deng’s next 3 best are without him.
It should also be instructive that although Taj is the primary replacement for the team’s worst defender, Boozer, the Bulls are only 1.59 points better on defense with him on the floor.
How could Taj be placed ahead of guys like Tim Duncan and Josh Smith? Those players have distinct advantages over Taj in terms of importance to his team’s defense, individual defensive ability, and minutes played. I don’t enjoy criticizing the praise of a Bulls player, but Taj, though solid and hard-working, should not be considered the #2 defensive power forward in the league.
by from the window to luol on Apr 7, 2011 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Tim Duncan's a C
As for Josh Smith, I’m inclined to say he’s better than Taj, but he’s such a unique player that it’s really kind of hard to say. I think Taj is definitely a better man-to-man defender.
It definitely doesn’t seem like Taj should be mentioned as an elite defender, but when you look around the league and see who’s starting at PF these days, it’s fairly justified. Boozer, Bosh, Lee, Dirk, Amare, Aldridge, Elton Brand, Kevin Love, Zach Randolph, Luis Scola and David West are all considered to be good starting 4s. Which one of those guys is a good defender on par with Taj?
Pat Riley is the devil.
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