Hollinger Rankings: Bulls Favorites to Win It All
Bulls are the team with the highest chance of winning it all now, at 18.1% chance. I like those odds a lot better than 1.7%.
about 1 year ago
Andrew7
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Well the way he's playin now.... we'll lately,
he has been given a little too much credit. But still he deserves the most credit. Bulls bench too!
"Time to nut up of shut up."
The worst projection for the Bulls
is 50 wins. That’s, ummm, crazy. Carlos Boozer, Thibodeau, and 4 role players were the only personnel changes.
by runningman on Mar 8, 2011 12:22 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
The only personnel changes?
You say it as if those weren’t significant upgrades.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 8, 2011 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
We also lost Kirk Hinrich!
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Can, yes. Will? That's harder to say.
After all, even Hollinger’s predictions, which do not take into account the Bulls’ lack of playoff experience, only gives them an 18.1% chance of winning it all. Right now, no one is a prohibitive favorite.
why are you always a voice of reason and rationality?
let us enjoy our ignorance and unified hate for hollinger
by regui8er on Mar 8, 2011 12:38 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
His projections also don't take into account the injuries to Boozer and Noah
Had they been healthy all season, it’s reasonable to believe that we might be seeing more than 18.1%. That said, I’ll happily take 18.1
by Diz on Mar 8, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Since Hollinger's ratings emphasize the last ten games played,
the longer Boozer and Noah play together, the less the injuries earlier in the season matter in Hollinger’s ratings — except to the extent that it gives other teams homecourt advantage in the playoffs. In other words, I think it is precisely because of the return of Noah that we are seeing the Bulls surge in Hollinger’s ratings.
by Tim S. on Mar 8, 2011 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
What lack of playoff experience?
Boozer, Brewer and Korver have a lot of experience with Utah. Rose, Deng and Noah may never have gotten deep into the playoffs but they’ve all gone multiple times. Bogans has always played for winners.
If you want to say ‘playoff tested’ based on the lack of success for Rose and Noah then fine, but this team isn’t going to get stage fright.
Road to the Division Title Assassination Missions:
Hornets: Mission Accomplished. Slow and steady wins the race... but it's less fun.
Bobcats:
Hawks:
Jazz:
Division Title Magic Number: 3
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Mar 8, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
If anything
I think Rose is more excited than ever to take on the challenge of the playoffs. He seems to welcome every challenge that comes his way lately. I have much more faith in our chances now than I can remember since the Jordan era.
by macjack09 on Mar 8, 2011 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It doesn't compare to the experience found on the Celtics or Lakers.
And the shaky road record of the Bulls leads me to believe that they can get rattled.
Which is not the topic at all.
Road to the Division Title Assassination Missions:
Hornets: Mission Accomplished. Slow and steady wins the race... but it's less fun.
Bobcats:
Hawks:
Jazz:
Division Title Magic Number: 3
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Mar 8, 2011 2:54 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry, I don't understand.
I thought we were talking about comparative playoff experience and how it will affect the Bulls chances of winning it all this year — something not included in Hollinger’s rankings.
You just threw in 'comparative'
when originally it was only stated as a general ‘lack.’ :-P
Also, you can partially attribute the weak road records to playing without the full compliment of guys in the starting line up.
Road to the Division Title Assassination Missions:
Hornets: Mission Accomplished. Slow and steady wins the race... but it's less fun.
Bobcats:
Hawks:
Jazz:
Division Title Magic Number: 3
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Mar 8, 2011 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
I'll be careful to say "comparative lack
of playoff experience" from now on. And I’ll keep a close eye on the road record the next 20 games,.
Rose and Noah played in the epically epic Boston series.
I don’t know about you, but IMO anybody who played in that series can legitimately say that they have nearly complete knowledge of anything that the playoffs can throw at you. 4 overtime games, one of which going to triple, both teams winning at home and on the road, 7 games, game winning and game tying shots in virtually every game except the 3rd one. About the only thing that they can’t say is that they know about the media pressure. And even then, that was probably the most publicized first round series I’ve ever heard of.
by Doshi on Mar 8, 2011 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I think the Bullslikebeingconsideredthe underdog.
After all, Rose made a commercial talking about how he doesn’t believe in having to fail before you succeed. Well, yeah, you already did, Derrick.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I don't remember ever seeing anyone reach 50% on championship odds in his formula.
Top teams that are “favored” to win it all generally hover around 20%, +/- a few percentage points. At least, that’s my recollection (buttressed by a spin around the Wayback Machine).
by arjoseph on Mar 8, 2011 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I as well. Tom Thibodeau is the best coach in basketball by a wide margin.
It’s hard to pick against a guy like Thibodeau in a seven game series, as you know he is going to completely dominate the coaching battle, even against Phil Jackson and Popovich imo.
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Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
Never heard this before, now am stealing it
by regui8er on Mar 8, 2011 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Really?
It’s a pretty old-fashioned expression. I thought everyone had heard it by now.
Road to the Division Title Assassination Missions:
Hornets: Mission Accomplished. Slow and steady wins the race... but it's less fun.
Bobcats:
Hawks:
Jazz:
Division Title Magic Number: 3
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Mar 8, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Also, how do you spend so much time here? (Not saying you don’t work but you clearly are a more regular poster). Is it while the hygienist is working?
To quote Tim Hardaway,
“I got skillz.”
Road to the Division Title Assassination Missions:
Hornets: Mission Accomplished. Slow and steady wins the race... but it's less fun.
Bobcats:
Hawks:
Jazz:
Division Title Magic Number: 3
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Mar 8, 2011 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Whoa.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 8, 2011 5:22 PM CST up reply actions
If the Bulls win it'll be a combination of things
coming together and better better than someone else’s parts.
We have a great coach but probably not the best coach. We have a great player, but probably not the greatest player (from a pure bball perspective).
We have a great frontcourt, but probably not the greatest frontcourt.
What we doe have is the best defense in basketball, and a deep bench, our parts together give me much hope.
It’s not any one thing.
"What do you think, I just dunked my whole career?" Jordan asked Henderson after making a 3.
"You’ve got to miss eventually," Henderson told him.
"That’s what Cleveland said," replied Jordan
Hm. We'll see about that.
Give it some time, man. Sheesh!
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
by ColonelFatheart on Mar 8, 2011 1:29 PM CST up reply actions
Damn
I was hoping to keep that low key role we’ve been playing all season at least till the playoffs start. Oh well, guess Rose is going to have to do Rose and Thibs is going to continue to have to work magic with defense.
There's a weird perception issue with Rose and the Bulls
that keeps them from being widely accepted as favorites.
Whenever pundits pick the Bulls to come out of the East (like Barkley did) or pick Rose as MVP (like Monty Williams did) always include qualifiers like, “probably” or otherwise acknowledge how rare the opinion is.
This is nowhere near the kind of unanimity that LeBron and the Cavs used to get.
I guess the upshot is that almost no matter what they do, the Bulls will be darkhorse candidates to come out of the East, and Rose will continue to be almost an afterthought for the MVP race. At least that’s how it feels.
"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris
I wish I could be as optimistic
I’m really happy to support a team that I know can compete with the best in the league, but I’d be surprised if they managed to get by the likes of the Celtics and the Lakers in the playoffs.
I mean the Lakers have been picking their noses all season and they still have 45 wins.
by darksmokepuncher on Mar 8, 2011 1:31 PM CST reply actions
I must say I've grown wary of all this love for the Bulls.
I’d hate for the team to go into the playoffs with a lot of hype and then be “EXPOSED” in the second round.
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
Yeah, the Bulls definitely have some Mavericks potential
Like when they were the one seed and got taken out in the first round. Not to say I don’t believe in them, I really do, bit there’s certain aspects that scare me a bit
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 8, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, no question I'm more optimistic about them then I thought I'd be this year.
In fact, if I were pressed on playoff picks right now, I’d have them in the ECF vs. the Celtics (which would be an old-fashioned NBA war, by the way).
Still, they’re not so far above the rest of the competition, particularly the second-tier teams in the East, that I’m 100% convinced they will be the real deal come playoff time. Then again, other than the Celtics, who has proven to be at that nearly untouchable level in the first round?
Then there’s the nagging optimist side of me that keeps whispering: “You know they can win the championship this year. They have the tools, the experience and the system to do so. Lakers vs. Bulls. Bet on it!”
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
by ColonelFatheart on Mar 8, 2011 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
They were favored then?
Rose: Who in the blue hell are you?
Rondo: Well
IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO YOU ARE!
ESPN picked them to come out of the eastern conference
by darksmokepuncher on Mar 8, 2011 2:10 PM CST up reply actions
That was based mostly on pre-season hype, though,
not in-season results. Building momentum based on actual play is different.
by arjoseph on Mar 8, 2011 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It was in season results
they won 47 games the year before, right? The east was WEAK
I remember now, if they beat New Jersey in the last game they would have nabbed the 3rd seed?
Regardless I just remember Kidd making a no look reverse lay up, I think he slapped Scott Skiles afterwards
You just had to bring it up.
Lol. I’m not commenting on that. Still upset.
by chicity773 on Mar 8, 2011 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
We still raped DWade in the first round.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Mar 8, 2011 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Humans picked them
This time it’s a “computer”.
I can predict the future using Norm Van Lier's crystal balls.
"Sam has a tendency to denigrate reports coming from any reporter who didn’t also cover the day Naismith first put up the peach baskets." - snley
by NBA Observer on Mar 8, 2011 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Not to Kevin Love
I can predict the future using Norm Van Lier's crystal balls.
"Sam has a tendency to denigrate reports coming from any reporter who didn’t also cover the day Naismith first put up the peach baskets." - snley
Remember when people were saying how awesome Beasley was earlier in the year?
Yuck.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 8, 2011 5:27 PM CST up reply actions
Rose would have went to Miami
I doubt this would have worked out this way, they would have had to get rid of someone, but Rose/Wade/LeBron/Bosh is like 56 championships.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Mar 8, 2011 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
As much I want to believe this..
.. and trust me I do.. I’ll just have to see it believe it (praying it does)
We're not just livin on a prayer
We’re good and stuff.
I can predict the future using Norm Van Lier's crystal balls.
"Sam has a tendency to denigrate reports coming from any reporter who didn’t also cover the day Naismith first put up the peach baskets." - snley
I might have rec'd this
simply because I like bad puns, but then you went and laughed at your own joke.
by runningman on Mar 8, 2011 7:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Could the Bulls end up being a paradox come playoff time?
The overrated underdogs?
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
Hollinger is stupid.
And I meant that as a compliment. One week we suck and are overrated, the next week we are gonna ‘win it all!’ If I remember correctly, he was only giving us 45 wins this season or something hilarious like that, and only a first round exit. The dude and his formula are as legitimate as Sarah Palin’s intuition.
I don't like PER.
But his rankings during the season are not based on PER, but on defensive and offensive efficiency. I place more faith in the rankings.
by Tim S. on Mar 8, 2011 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
there is the man and the machine
be careful not to entertwine the two. he’s close to becoming an wifi wickerman.
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 9, 2011 1:10 AM CST up reply actions
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