Lineup Combinations Fun with Basketballvalue.com
by YaoPau on Mar 8, 2011 9:22 AM CST
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Print[From the Fanposts. Really interesting stuff from YaoPau, a lot of which I think reflects what we've observed. Our offseason goal should be perfecting the science required to meld Korver and Brewer into a single entity. -ed.]
GO BULLS!! It's finals week at school, and despite that I can't seem to pull away.
The Bulls been awesome all year, and it's nice to check out basketballvalue's lineup splits and see a bunch of green numbers on the Bulls pages for the first time ever. Anyway, I did this last year and figured I'd check on it again: the Bulls lineup widget. Download it here. Instructions on the excel.
Some interesting stuff from the data (which may or may not mean anything, though it's fun to think about) is below. Keep in mind the Bulls' have a 106.5 ORating and 99.8 DRating (+6.7 net) on the year according to bv's play-by-play data.
(1) Surrounding Rose and Boozer with floor spacers: Given Rose and Boozer on the court, Bulls offensive and defensive ratings depending on how many of Deng, Watson, Korver are also on the court.
Min Orating Drating Net 0or1 895 108.7 103.7 5.0 2or3 326 113.3 104.6 8.6
We know Rose and Boozer are elite offensive players, and when Thibs surrounds them with guys that keep defenses honest with their scoring ability (more specifically, their ability to hit 3s with a decent USG%), we see an improvement in offensive rating. That 113.3 rating with two+ other floor-spacers on the court would rank #1 in the NBA (the 326 minute sample size is kinda small, though not bad). Nevertheless, it provides some evidence that the Bulls can be elite offensively when they want to be, and the very average 108.7 rating without floor spacing validates fundamentallysound's preseason claim that, despite two elite offensive players, the Bulls would struggle to be more than average offensively. Good on ya.
(2) The Bulls' shooting guard. Nobody has qualms about Thibs' handling of the front court, but it seems worth it to look at his backcourt rotation. Given Rose and Deng on the floor together, here's how the Bulls have fared with either Bogans, Brewer, Korver, or Watson in at shooting guard:
Min Orating Drating Net Bogans 973 108.2 103.7 4.5 Brewer 642 106.0 94.0 12.0 Korver 557 113.0 102.0 11.0 Watson 81 112.7 103.5 9.2
Looking at these numbers, it should be surprising that fans were calling for the Bulls to add a shooting guard. While it would've been nice to have solidified the lineup with a long term piece, it's hard to argue with the production of Brewer's and Korver's lineups, especially with how much flexibility those two players give Thibodeau. With Rose/Brewer/Deng, the Bulls' DRating and Net Rating would rank #1 in the NBA. With Rose/Korver/Deng, the Bulls' ORating and Net Rating would rank #1 in the NBA. Pretty amazing, I think.
And it's not like Brewer and Korver are coming out of nowhere here. Brewer was an 18.4 PER, stud defender who started for a Jazz playoff team at age 22. Korver's been a plus-minus star for years. In 2008 Jazz lineups were +10.5 with Korver, +5.5 without. In 2009 +4.3 with Korver, +1.2 without. In 2010 +10.2 with Korver, +3.9 without. This year Bulls are +7.8 with Korver, +5.9 without.
This isn't to say that playing Bogans has been a bad idea. It's tough to argue that the Bulls would be better than 44-18 with a different minutes allocation, and Bogans' eating minutes has kept Brewer's energy up and Korver's soon-to-be 30 year old legs fresh. Come playoff time though, the data suggests Bogans should have his minutes reduced a bit.
(3) Defense, defense, defense. Ronnie Brewer and Omer Asik provide zero floor spacing, but the thought is they make up for it with defense. Bulls lineup data depending how many of Brewer/Asik are on the floor:
Min Orating Drating Net 0 1314 109.6 105.1 4.5 1 1085 104.0 98.9 5.1 2 506 103.8 88.3 15.5
As we'd expect, the ORating plummets when either one touches the court, but holy hell that defense! 506 is a fairly significant sample size (the Bulls' most-used lineup this year has played just 356 minutes), and that 88.3 rating would be the best team DRating in NBA history. Granted, when they're both on the floor together, they're usually playing second stringers. Still, though. 88.3!
Here's more on Asik: I looked through bv's player data, and Asik ranks 3rd in the NBA (500+ minute filter) for Player Net Rating, trailing just Kevin Garnett and Shaquille O'Neal. Pretty remarkable considering four of the top nine players on this list are Celtics, while the next highest Bull is Brewer at 26th. Just an incredible rookie season so far. As for Shaq ranking #2, that could explain why Danny Ainge traded Perkins for two average players. The Celtics' starting lineup with Shaq was +19 net per 100 possessions.
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This was really fascinating, though. I’m one of the people who always thought we’d be able to get above-average production from Korver + Brewer combined. I admittedly would’ve considered trading Taj for Mayo or Lee, though.
Could you possibly add some of Taj’s info in there?
interesting post
I agree that the flexibility of being able to use Korver and Brewer in different situations is very valuable. No doubt Brewer is the best defender of the four guards, but how big of a role does the relative quality of the opposing guards play in those numbers? If Brewer plays against lesser quality guards than Bogans, for example, how is that taken into account?
It's a reflection of what happens on the court, so stuff like that isn't adjusted
this is basically raw +/- for the lineups he’s in, just adjusted for pace.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 9:26 AM CST up reply actions
YaoPau, welcome back, you're a gentleman and a scholar
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"Don't nag, flag!"
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 9:18 AM CST reply actions 22 recs
It's a good line, but 20 recs?
Fucking suckups.
As Sacramento's only major league sports team, the Kings' fanbase has been among the strongest in the league even during the franchise's lean years, which could just be a testament to how little there is to do in Sacramento.
maybe it was meant to be a tip of the hat to yaopau, more than YFF.
Too slow, too jerky, too quirky, too Deng!
by rainman1003 on Mar 8, 2011 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
jealous much?
The ultimate fan experience is no longer courtside seats, it's Keith Bogan's job.
by sin on Mar 8, 2011 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I do wonder how the rotation will be adjusted in the playoffs, and it's the problem with starting Bogans
I can’t see his minutes reduced that much if he’s getting the ‘guaranteed’ starting lineup minutes. If he came off the bench he could be used situationaly (i.e. less), whereas if he starts that ‘situation’ would only be if the Bulls are getting killed early.
I’m surprised Korver rates so well, he was actually someone I was looking towards when considering how the rotation may be shortened in the playoffs. But he’s probably a more frustrating ‘watch’ than he is actually performing statistically, as even as he misses he’s still providing floor spacing. And while his D is glaringly bad to me, that probably has a lot to do with the other guys playing it so well as a unit. And it’s not like Korver doesn’t see time against better opponents as he’s usually in at the end of games.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 9:32 AM CST reply actions
Korver is like the opposite of Boozer
Good help defender, lousy one-on-one defender due to his inability to stay with more athletic guards (and pretty much all of them are more athletic than Korver).
Against teams where you can hide his one-on-one defense against a non-offensive guard threat, like the Lakers, I think I’d rather see Korver get the vast majority of the time, and against teams with two effective scoring/driving guards, I’d rather see Brewer get the vast majority of the time.
Either way, though, it’d be better if Bogans wasn’t bogarting the majority of the minutes.
by kbukie on Mar 8, 2011 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Korver is very good at hedging in help defense. It doesn't seem like a big deal, but the last two Heat-Bulls games have been decided on help defense.
It’d be nice if he could hit some more open jumpers.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 8, 2011 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, but for guy knows something about spot-up shooters, he sure makes a habit of losing good shooters when he's guarding them.
i.e. Belinelli last night.
He just doesn't have the makeup speed you need to play far enough off a guy.
Spot up shooters are left alone for a reason. That’s why we routinely see Bogans standing all by himself on the weak side. His defender certainly ignores him more than he would ignore Korver, but even when it’s Korver out there, the defender will often look to help out elsewhere as the play develops while keeping an eye on Kyle.
Now, apply this to the Bulls and Kyle as a defender. When he hedges away from his man to help somewhere else, that’s fine, but he doesn’t have much burst to get back and even remotely challenge the shot if it goes to the weakside shooter.
If you wanted to compensate for this, you’d tell him to stick a little closer to his guy, deny him the ball and help less, but that takes away from your team defense. Which I’m pretty sure Thibs doesn’t want to do.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
by Sports2 on Mar 8, 2011 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Kinda agree
I don’t think it’s that he doesn’t have the burst to close out on shooters. It’s more that he doesn’t have the agility to change directions if the shooter decides to show and go. As a result, he can’t go full speed out to shooters.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 8, 2011 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Korver had a big tip away on a lob attempt last night
He makes plays on defense sometimes, but I like Sports2’s description of his defense.
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 8, 2011 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah.. When I watch Kyle I see him at least trying to play defense like he's supposed to
What I’ve noticed with him is the longer the possession the more prone to mistakes he is. He usually starts out playing good D, but as the game progresses, he kinda fades away from it. Could be that he’s more worried about scoring to help the team. But I mean Sloan was able to succeed with Kyle, and I feel like we have a much better team than what the Jazz had the past few years, with Noah and Asik in the middle.
You always were second best! And in this business, Bub, second best don't *cut* it!
so the next question
Does Bulls management and coaches actually look at advanced data to help them figure out who to play?
by NY Chicago Fan on Mar 8, 2011 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
They don't have anyone on the payroll for that purpose.
But I find it hard to believe that Thibs would overlook anything that could give him an edge.
by Tim S. on Mar 8, 2011 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
the game is refereed differently at the beginning of the game than at the end
bogans starts to set thibs’ “defensive tone” while the refs might more easily call fouls.
korver plays at the end, and his apm numbers probably benefit from the team being able to get away with more, as well as himself personally, with the officials.
or thibs (and me) could just be dumb.
The name of the team is ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - "I tried to convince them that what they were doing was an aberration, an imbecility, a stupidity without name"
of course i left out the fact that bogans gets away with a lot,
because that’s his reputation, his “skill”.
The name of the team is ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - "I tried to convince them that what they were doing was an aberration, an imbecility, a stupidity without name"
I feel like I know more about basketball now.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
how does personnel on the floor
impact each players defensive rating. I don’t doubt that Brewer is a better defender than Bogans or Korver, but he sees less time on the floor with Boozer and more time with Taj and Asik. The inverse is true for Bogans, he spends all of his time with Rose, Boozer, Thomas/Noah, who all have superior defensive back-ups. I’m not saying this to defend Bogans, because I can’t stand him starting, but just wondering how that might impact the Ortg and Drtg discrepancy. (Having said that, there is no reason for Bogans Ortg to be so low with Rose, Boozer, Deng, Noah/Thomas on the floor with him. That is the best offensive guy at each position.)
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 8, 2011 10:10 AM CST reply actions
that was my question...
though you stated it more clearly than mine (above)
by EuroBullsFan on Mar 8, 2011 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
Hmm.
“Our offseason goal should be perfecting the science required to meld Korver and Brewer into a single entity.”
Doesn’t Bogans already do that? Korver’s defense and Brewer’s offense?
Just kidding.
by Tim S. on Mar 8, 2011 10:10 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
I agree
but it’s too bad the Deconstructing APM fanshot fell off the board. I’d be interested to see your opinions on that.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
I replied to that post actually under a different name
The blogger got APM wrong. That’s all it is. Check back on the site and scroll down to Aaron Barzilai’s comment on 3/7/2011. Aaron runs basketballvalue.
I’m actually taking a class now on regression, and while APM is a little different from what I’m learning, there’s nothing screwy about its calculation. In fact it’s almost completely objective (the main human interaction I guess is in determining how many total players to use in the model, and that won’t change much).
My only wish with APM is that basketballvalue would post 4+ year APMs instead of the 2-year garbage. Take Steve Nash for example, with his +10.56 2-year APM with a 4.37 standard error. It’s really easy to just ignore that standard error, but you can’t. Nash’s true APM the past two years is likely between +1 and +19, and that says basically nothing, and people interpreting the APMs without the standard error I think is part of the reason why so few people trust it.
Thanks for pointing that out
When I read through it the first time, I was a little bit shocked, because I had always been under the impression that the APM calculations didn’t include those statistical factors. So yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
I couldn’t agree more about including more data. To me, I interpret the standard errors to reflect the basic reality of the NBA. There are very few players that are so good that their inherent ability consistently dominates the multitude of other factors. While we can measure some of those factors (the ability of the other players, home vs. away, refs, coaching, altitude, etc) some of them, like team roles and cohesion, are damn near impossible to get to.
That’s where it might be interesting to figure out a way of using player stats to define fits in lineups, sort of in the manner you’re doing here. Suppose you add to the regression a set of dummies to indicate a set of cohesiveness and completeness factors…
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
I'm so happy your back
I was hoping you’d provide numbers to support getting/not getting Melo. At least to calm sin down.
Salut, YaoPau!
Excellent work.
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
by ColonelFatheart on Mar 8, 2011 11:07 AM CST reply actions
There's a solution to this "problem"
The fusion dance. That’s right, I said it. Teach Brewer and Korver the fusion dance and the bulls have their starting SG. Although it’ll only last for 30 min, but that’s more than enough time. The rest can go to CJ and Bogans.
Or get some earrings
and fuse that way.
"What do you think, I just dunked my whole career?" Jordan asked Henderson after making a 3.
"You’ve got to miss eventually," Henderson told him.
"That’s what Cleveland said," replied Jordan
Really, zero floor spacing value?
I can predict the future using Norm Van Lier's crystal balls.
"Sam has a tendency to denigrate reports coming from any reporter who didn’t also cover the day Naismith first put up the peach baskets." - snley
Good stuff. Thanks for the shout out.
I should say that while I was pretty sure they would struggle to be average offensively, I also didn’t think they would be this dominant on defense. I hoped for it, but good on Thibs for building this defense to where it is.
by fundamentallysound on Mar 8, 2011 12:49 PM CST reply actions
I still can't believe they're this good defensively
I remember we talked about it, and we agreed that even with Thibs the Bulls just didn’t have the defensive talent to be elite. Ok then.
I’m still not really sure who the Bulls’ great defenders are (Is Luol great? Is Noah great? Is Rose great?). One thing I noticed though while looking through the bv data was CJ Watson’s on/off defensive splits are amazing. This year the Bulls have a 93 DRtg with him on the court, 102 off. Last year the Warriors were 108 DRtg with him on, 114 DRtg off. It helps that he was backing up Monta Ellis and plays with Brewer/Asik/Taj so often this year, but this is the first time I’ve looked at him as possibly a great defender. His draftexpress scouting report includes:
Defensively, Watson was an absolute nuisance. He has incredibly quick hands and took advantage of some shoddy ball handling by Dallas’s starters.
He also ranks 12th in the NBA in STL% since entering the league four years ago. I dunno, I’d like to watch him some more, but if it’s true that helps explain some things.
One other little note
bv’s ranking of the top lineups by defensive rating.
Almost all the top lineups just barely made the 30+ minutes played cut, suggesting luck in most of those cases. There’s one lineup that stands out though: the CJ/Brewer/Deng/Taj/Omer lineup that’s played 96 minutes together with a DRating of 75.9. I’m sure there’s some luck involved there as well, but at 96 minutes I think we can start concluding there’s a whole lot of skill too.
Thibs is aware of it too, I think.
He started the 2nd quarter of the New Orleans game with that lineup,
started the 2nd quarter and the 4th quarter of the Heat game with that lineup, and
started the 2nd quarter and the 4th quarter of the Magic game with that lineup.
Did it with the Atlanta game before that too, but I’m officially tired of linking now. That lineup has been getting about 5 minutes per game lately, making it the 2nd most used lineup over that time, compared to it being barely used during the early part of the season. I’m looking forward to watching how that unit holds up now that I’m aware of it.
I'm a big believer that individually, no defender is all that great (possible exception - great defensive centers)
It’s just too easy to score in different ways in the NBA. Defense is all about fitting the right pieces and skills around.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
totally disagree
The great ones are easily visible on the court, MJ Pip
Brewer
Rodman
Great defenders don’t force misses (like you said , good offensive players can score or get fouled)
Great defenders force very tough shots.
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
I agree here
like Sports2 said, it’s easy to score in different ways. A great defender will take some of those ways away and make it harder on the opposing player.
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 10, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree with your subject line.
I agree that team defense is vital, but there are definitely great defenders out there at every position. Look at Pippen on Magic in the 1991 finals, for example. Sometimes one-on-one defense makes all the difference in the world.
I think Deng has proven that he's a very-good to sometimes elite defender. I think the same of Taj. Omer is one of the
most disruptive defensive centers we have in the game today (to get a little Hubie Brown about it). I think Derrick has gotten himself up to at least average and I think there is a lot of evidence that Ronnie Brewer, in Thibs’ system, is a havoc-wreaking defensive dynamo (see here: http://thecity2.com/2011/01/31/ezpm-v-2-0-incorporating-counterpart-defense-or-the-biggie/) Basically, I think looking at the team as constructed, everyone, save Boozer, either is good to quite good on defense or at least knows where they are supposed to be and tries (see e.g. Kyle Korver). Then you have Noah who is so skilled and versatile that he can take LeBron on a switch and totally seal off the paint from him and force a near impossible lefty shot.
Basically, there’s a lot of individual brilliance, but I think a huge part of it is Thibs’ putting guys in the right position to succeed given their skills.
by fundamentallysound on Mar 9, 2011 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
I think Brewer went from “overrated” to Goldiloxed. And Watson went from “they don’t play defense in golden St.” to “actually pretty good”.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Dude! What the fuck is this!?!
Logarithms? Arithmetic? Pi?
yaopau, can the d-rating
be adjusted by the opponents at the time? you spoke about the weakness of the watson-gibson-asik etc lineup b/c they face second stringers, but of course there’s been a time when they’ve faced the opposing first string. so, weight each defensive lineup rating based on the cumulative o-rating of each opponents lineup, sort of like an rpi/strength of schedule technique. the result would probably be more informative
Fantastic post....quality info here....Thanks.
Happy Thanksgiving Roy.
I'm not saying that they aren't good defenders. But couldn't most of
the success that Brewer and Asik enjoy when they are on the court together be attributed to the fact that when they are on the floor together, it usually means they are playing the other team’s scrubs who, for the most part, are offensively challenge?
BTW, I was wondering whatever happened to YaoPau.
This space is available.
This is probably partially true.
But Asik has been getting a lot of PT late in the 4th. And remember he played 31 mins of stellar defense against Dwight Howard the recently. Maybe the numbers change a bit, but the impact will still be the same.
but other teams bench goes thru the same thing
And they don’t have metrics as good as Brewer and Asik, or the Bulls D.
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
Where are you getting this data?
This space is available.
That is not what he said...
This isn’t to say that playing Bogans has been a bad idea. It’s tough to argue that the Bulls would be better than 44-18 with a different minutes allocation, and Bogans’ eating minutes has kept Brewer’s energy up and Korver’s soon-to-be 30 year old legs fresh
Until we get a tagline, yfbb=your friendly Bogans blogger.
Which is weird. Because it IS proof that Bogans shouldn't be starting.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Huh?
I read this and concluded Thibs new what he was doing by creating a dominant defensive second unit that has become one of the true strengths of this team. If you A) took Bogans out of the rotation and replaced all his minutes with Brewer/Korver, you likely would not get the same production out of them over an 82 game season and hopefull deep playoff run, and B) if you started Brewer/Korver and brought Bogans off the bench, you would affect the 2nd team’s ability to alter games in limited minutes.
None of point A is true.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
by tyger1147 on Mar 9, 2011 7:28 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
but it COULD be?
NOT BROKE DONT FIX
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"Don't nag, flag!"
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 9, 2011 8:07 AM CST up reply actions
what can we agree on?
Which of these will you agree on?
1) The 2nd unit comprised of Asik, Gibson, Deng/Korver, Brewer, & Watson absolutely rocks defensively?
2) The 2nd unit vs other teams 2nd units is a current strength of our team?
3) Bogans would not improve and likely hurt either the offense or defense (or likely both) of the 2nd unit?
4) Brewer is not a 38 minute a game player at this point in his career, at least not if we want him at full strength in the playoffs?
5) Deng really shouldn’t play 40+ minutes a game (at least regular season)?
6) Bogans, for all his faults, limitations, and rancidly frustrating start to the season is a significantly better defender than Korver, and is shooting 3’s respectably over a prolonged period.?
7) Tibs is very aware that Brewer is a better all around player than Bogans, and that Korver is a much better shooter, but that he still chooses to give Bogans minutes at the beginning of each half while burying him during the end of games, and that for reasons other than to spite people here. (though he quite possibly considers that a fringe benefit) ?
8) Anything short of a championship is Bogan’s and his coach’s decision to play him fault? (and Garpax’s fault for signing him, and Rose’s fault for not demanding a trade for a SG, and Joe Johnson’s fault for being too old, and Wade’s fault for being a dick, and Otis Smith’s fault…. )?
I agree with yfBB's point but add one: If they could combine Brewer + Korver and Asik + Noah....
….they would have the greatest starting five ever.
I’d like to see the ORtg’s with
Rose, Korver, Deng, Boozer, Noah
And the DRtg’s with:
Rose, Brewer, Deng, Boozer, Asik
I’m guessing the pt. diff. would be one of the greatest 5-man lineups of all time. Too bad, too bad.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Your posts always wake my brain up
This is just great stuff… Coaches should seriously take you in to their staff.
Also, has Shaq really played 500 minutes. I feel like he’s barely been on the court this year.
You always were second best! And in this business, Bub, second best don't *cut* it!
Just to make sure
The ORating and DRating is amount of points scored per 100 possessions, right? So higher ORating is better, and a lower DRating is better, right? (Not very good with the advanced metrics).
Bears. Bulls. White Sox.
correct
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not a stat expert but I'm curious
Does anyone know how this Bulls defense stacks up with some of the greatest defenses in history? Like those Pistons and Bulls teams? Because not only are they holding teams under 100 points, they’re starting to hold them under 90 ppg. I also know a lot depends on how long offenses hold on to the ball as well but I don’t think that’s the case with this Bulls team.
Hey Rose. I don't see the appeal!
This is a query I put together at B-R based on teams that held their opponent to less than .428 FG% (currently what the Bulls are doing)
and that have less than 91.5 opponent points per game.
There have been a lot of excellent defensive teams it seems. The Bulls rank around 30th in Opp FG% on that list since 1980.
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 8, 2011 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
ah, but the rules are different now,
the prevalence of the 3 pt shot, and the no hands on the man or its a foul.
On one hand, teams are shooting alot more 3’s so the overall % is going to go down, but no hand checks makes what the Bulls and Celtic D’s dominance really impressive.
I’d like to see the DRating for historical comparisons
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
Some of the Duncan Spurs teams are nearly impossible to match
They had a 95.0 DRtg in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, and in 2003-04 their 94.1 DRtg is the best I see by checking the usual suspects. I think the Bulls with MJ only got below 100 once, with a 99.8 DRtg in the last championship year. The Pistons never came close to breaking 100 though it was generally a higher offense league in the 80s.
by from the window to luol on Mar 8, 2011 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
It's also hard to compare since the pace of the league has altered so much.
The pace is much quicker now compared to 5-6 years ago, but it’s still a snail’s pace compared to how teams played in the 80s and early 90s.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 8, 2011 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
Well, DRtg and ORtg eliminate pace as a factor
since it’s per possession, not per game.
As Sacramento's only major league sports team, the Kings' fanbase has been among the strongest in the league even during the franchise's lean years, which could just be a testament to how little there is to do in Sacramento.
But it doesn't adjust for the league average.
League wide efficiency has changed over time. A 100 DRtg is a lot more impressive in 1987 than in 2003.
Not with how a possession are defined for the purposes of these statistics.
A team cannot have far more possessions than their opponents.
Offensive rebounds continue possessions. They do not start new possessions.
Is OFBB saying we need even more chemistry?
Our offseason goal should be perfecting the science required to meld Korver and Brewer into a single entity.
by tuluse on Mar 8, 2011 4:38 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
we need them to train for the fusion technique
The ultimate fan experience is no longer courtside seats, it's Keith Bogan's job.
by sin on Mar 8, 2011 4:39 PM CST up reply actions
No fusion dance shit
a la DBZ
Rose: Who in the blue hell are you?
Rondo: Well
IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO YOU ARE!
stats i can understand woohoo ty yaopau
The ultimate fan experience is no longer courtside seats, it's Keith Bogan's job.
by sin on Mar 8, 2011 4:39 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
sorry guys
have to remember: SoulEater needs pictures.
BaB on Twitter | BaB on Facebook
"Don't nag, flag!"
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 9 recs
talking about Defense
Stu Scott or tirico said the Bulls have 6 of the top 11 individual defenders in the league
Rose
Deng
Brewer
Noah
Taj
Asik
I’m guessing
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
I wouldn't guess Rose
Watson’s a better defender than him, to start.
BaB on Twitter | BaB on Facebook
"Don't nag, flag!"
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 8, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
Woah, that's weird
the second I read this I rejected it, but thought about it and…it’s probably true. He should really spend time devoted to that this offseason.
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 8, 2011 5:41 PM CST up reply actions
I'd be fine if Rose stayed average at D and he just got really, really good on offense.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 8, 2011 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
Not to sound dumb
But me too, and only because it will get him more noticed league wide, thus leading to MVP’s and foul calls.
never forget...
1.7%
anything is possible...
by wrigleyrocker12 on Mar 8, 2011 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
This is true
you could say it’d be easier for him to increase his efficiency than any other part of his game
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 8, 2011 6:14 PM CST up reply actions
I concur.
Getting the 3-pt’er up to 35%+ and keeping it there all year, each month, more consistent, and being able to start out the season at 7 FTA/g instead of it miraculously jumping to that two months in… I think those are a lot easier to work on—basically, because I feel like we know that both skills are already there—then becomign great on defense.
Doesn’t mean he can’t do both.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
by tyger1147 on Mar 9, 2011 7:33 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
eh
it’s easier to be good on D [especially the way Watson is] if you’re a bench guy and don’t need to worry about fouls and such
I only post cotton candy. Because it's delicious.
And when you play more minutes carrying the offense
don’t think it should excuse him from improving, though
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 8, 2011 9:17 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think rose is bad on D as-is
saying he’s worse than CJ Watson is no big deal. Not like Kobe Bryant was Bruce Bowen and … Kobe Bryant.
He does need to stop getting faked into the air on EVERYTHING. He seems actually too eager to get the block.
I only post cotton candy. Because it's delicious.
by Prevenge on Mar 8, 2011 9:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Was't there a post that showed Rose is a top defending pg?
If CJ had to guard starters, he would get roasted, alive.
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
doubt it. cj looks really good to me.
"JJ has never made that floater. He’s probably never even practiced it, he just decided to take a floater, which is why he’s James Johnson."
-JocktrapNoah
against backups he's ok
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
Your expert analysis leaves no chance of amendment!
I only post cotton candy. Because it's delicious.
Not a top defender, just much improved.
It was a NY Times blog post by Rob Mahoney, but I’m too lazy to look it up for you.
Being on a good team makes all players look better individually. Or is the opposite of that? Or is it both?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
it has to be both, haha
"I love you, mommy!" - Joakim Noah
I wish I could imbed that "aaaaaaah" religious sound.
Anyway, its great to have you back. Awesome post.
I saw T2 at Walgreens in Deerfield he’s tall. if you’re wondering what his grocery list included: magnums, french vanilla ice cream and a 20 oz sprite
YaoPau, you're awesome
Ridiculously awesome.
I only post cotton candy. Because it's delicious.
Now we've just got to wait for Anorexorcist
to show up and tell us how dumb we all are for trusting these new-fangled numbers.
As Sacramento's only major league sports team, the Kings' fanbase has been among the strongest in the league even during the franchise's lean years, which could just be a testament to how little there is to do in Sacramento.
If it truly is Thibs idea to rest his good players with a servicable scub
during the regular season… He better tighten that rotation up come playoffs.. what makes me think he won’t do that though is because he is trying to break Deng’s brittle bones.
Oh, and if Thibs was actually worried about over-use that he played lesser players over better ones...
…he wouldn’t be playing Deng so much. No. Thibs has a misguided idea that the Bulls are better with Bogans starting than without. He’s wrong. Coaches can be every once in awhile.
It would be hilarious to me to try to see the explanations if Korver and Brewer are “fresh” for the playoffs but Deng (god forbid) breaks down.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
YaoPau is back
Now JR can finally stop worrying about that money to the analytic division. Just read Blogabull
by JustAnotherFan on Mar 9, 2011 11:47 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
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