My Stepback Assessment

Ok, so this year's team is on pace with the '97 Champion edition.  Our only glaring weakness is starting SG, it's not even the depth behind the starter.  The top spot in the East is pretty open for us.  The Heat is a flawed team, IF you can throw a quality PG and big man at them.  The Magic is an offensive team, that acts like it's D'ing up.  The Celtics are the Celtics, they will be a tough squad, but aging legs through the 82 make them vulnerable.  So why isn't the Org trying to seize the moment and add that guy to push us over the top?

34-16.  Leading the Central Division by a crazy 12 games.  NO ONE thought we'd be this much out front.  Even though I did find this nugget from an AUGUST 15TH fanpost I wrote:

Record wise -- I think we come into the new year 25-6, 1st in the Central by about 3 or 4 games, and only behind Miami in the Conference.  But I see a rocky Jan. leaving us 33-13 going into Feb.  I think we've jelled pretty well, but that it's noticable that the offense is more efficient when we have more shooters on the floor.  Luol is having a better than average season, but he and Brewer on the floor at the same time just doesn't work.  They both are best at slashing and mid range game, but don't help spread the floor.  But because of no injuries and back to "2007 form" play, he has become a valueable asset entering the trade deadline.

This was before anyone knew the horror of Keith "F*CKING" Bogans starting.  Pretty damn close huh?.. I digress

We've done all of this without a truly full squad.  This is why the Org is in no hurry to make a move.

It's a science fair project, with DRose and Noah, being the catalysts.  This team is being built around them, DRose in particular.  They know that SG is a weakness, and it almost seems like they play Bogans there, to make sure Brewer and/or Korver don't start.  Like Bogans is really just keeping that spot warm.  I really think Joe Johnson would have been a Bull (good or bad) if ATL hadn't thrown the crazy money at him.  If they can't get someone for Bogans, JJ and the 1st's then they won't be making a deal.  Gar Paxdorf will be quite content to wait, and watch their stars grow. 

Noah, by all accounts, will be back 100% right after the break.  So even though the schedule will get harder, we have a 12 GAME lead on our division, pretty much guaranteeing us a Top 4 seed.  I doubt we implode, and in fact I believe we'll be playing our best ball at the end of the season.  Noah will take until about Mid-March to fully back in the swing of things, it will then take another week or so for Booz to get used to him being in there and able to do the things Jo can do. 

Let's say they get the #3 seed, holding off Orlando, and face the Knicks in the playoffs.  With or without Melo, we get rid of the Knicks in 6.  Face the Heat in the semi-finals, and take them to 6 or 7 games before bowing out.  All with Bogans as our starting SG.

In my opinion, this CBA Agreement will go much smoother than the NFL's.  It will be a hard cap, too many of the owners want it to get around that, but it won't be as low as people think.  It definitely won't be below this year's cap, the players won't sign anything long-term with that type of language in it, or at least they shouldn't. They will keep the MLE and install a NFL-like "Franchise" and "Transition" tag, along with Bird Rights.  It may not work the same way, but there will be some sort of way to help owners keep their star players.  Of course, you will keep the vet minimum signings. Let's say the cap is set at $65 mil, that's $7 mil over this cap.  I would say the cap should be closer to the luxary tax, but I'm being conserative here.  That would leave us with $11 mil in cap money to go looking for a SG, and back ups at SF, PG, and C.

Here's the beauty of the whole thing, if that cap is set at $65 mil, there will be a large number teams that will be over the cap and forced to cut players.  Even if the cap is set at $70 mil, there will still be at least half (did not check those numbers) that would be over.  That's a flood of players on the open market, you know what a flood of supply does?  It drives down prices.  We'll have our pick of a nice selection of quality SG this summer.  Be able to fill our other wants, I think backup SF would be next.  And after filling out our roster and giving DRose the ammo he needs, you extend him.  Simple.

Don't worry we're going to get our SG, you just have to be patient. 

If we do make a deal at this point, I would only deal for OJ Mayo or Courtney Lee.  They are young, could possibly get better, and seem like the type to fit in well next to DRose.  And with the Aaron Brooks trade rumors finally showing up I can see something like this going down for either of the two(couldn't help getting something in).

Courtney Lee trade with HOU/SAC/CHI -- with CHI throwing our 1st to SAC.  The Rockets will give you Brooks for a ham sandwich, they would definitely give him up for Landry, who they want back anyway.  The Kings need a steady PG next to Evans and Udrih is not it.  Move Udrih to the bench and take the 1st round pick with JJ being a throw in 

OJ Mayo with MEM/HOU/CHI --  with CHI throwing our 1st to Houston.  The Rockets are trying to get rid of Brooks and for dirt cheap.  Surely they'd take Thabeet, who could be a nice big somewhere, an expiring (Bogans), and a 1st.  The Grizz get a scoring punch they can bring off the bench behind Conley.  I know Brooks is beefing on the bench now, but the beef is about playing time.  They also get a nice back up to Gasol in Miller, and JJ to develop behind Gay.