The Illusory Importance of Starting
"No consistent starter in the modern era has played fewer minutes per game than Bogans, which speaks to both Bogans’s limitations as a player and the wisdom of Coach Tom Thibodeau."
over 1 year ago
paxson43
97 comments
4 recs |
Comments
Actually this makes a lot of sense
Bogans is in the rotation because JJ makes mistakes, which Thibs hates. Thibs figures Bogans might as well get his minutes playing with guys who can make him useful, on account of their offensive prowess.
So Thibs is smart (figured), willing to be unconventional (obviously), and it seems that Bogans still starting after a trade is unlikely, although possible if we give up a rotation wing.
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
This makes no sense to me
If Bogans was in there because he was the best option, like this article claims, then why does he NEVER play besides the opening minutes of each half?
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
Its pretty simple really.
Although Bogans is crap, he is still on our roster.
In order to keep a decent Bench squad, Bogans Is plugged in the starting lineup and playing with the likes of Rose Boozer Noah Deng etc etc, This negates some of his shitness and also, with those players drawing double teams and all the attention, hes more likely to get his wide open corner 3 opportunity.
There is some method to the madness. In saying that, its not good enough going forward, a decent stop gap plan maybe, but clearly a good starting SG will transform this team offensively, and it needs to get done.
Boom! Asik, Asik, Asik the room.
Serious question
I though everyone already knew this??
Bogans starting makes alot of sense, only if we had a true backup Point Guard could we drop Bogans and move Brewer up to the starting spot.
Brewer is a better ball handler then CJ…its the truth.
Did you guys hear about the new Lebron James Iphone?
You have to keep it on vibrate because it has no rings.
except CJ always handles the ball with the 2nd unit
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 16, 2011 11:15 PM CST up reply actions
Yea
but brewer has much better handles.
I wish we had AI, even though he cant shoot, damn he can handle and play amazing D.
Plus the athleticism would make me cry with excitement.
Did you guys hear about the new Lebron James Iphone?
You have to keep it on vibrate because it has no rings.
that's not what it says
he’s in there because he’s going to be in the rotation one way or another, and being in the starting 5 is the only way for him to be useful.
so, basically, thibs doesn’t think JJ can be counted on, which we knew, and he’s getting the most out of the guys he has
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
by paddyfairview on Feb 16, 2011 11:06 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, well that's the part I don't get
Why does he have to be in the rotation?
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 16, 2011 11:35 PM CST up reply actions
I think the idea
is that if he wasn’t with the starters, then either Korver or Brewer would be, and then Bogans would have to come in to give them a break later with the 2nd unit, which would be a disaster.
For all the smart posting you do
You really are missing the point on this COMPLETELY. Its not confusing, why make it be?
it is so frustrating that the best place to chat about the bulls is dominated by a whiny drama queen moderator with a man crush on an average SG......6 recs
by BigforkBullsFan on Feb 17, 2011 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
? Are you serious, his point was quite clear.
There was nothing confusing about what Juicebox said.
Paddy said, Bogans is going to be a part of the rotation, so why not put him in at the start.
JBJ is arguing why is he in the rotation at all? It’s not about when he plays, it’s that he ever plays, that’s the problem. There’s no rule you have to play three SG’s. We can easily split the minutes between Brewer, Korver and Watson without Bogans touching the court.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Thank you.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 17, 2011 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
i guess the problem is
from the season so far, any scenario in which bogans doesn’t play at all doesn’t seem to be likely. So if we assume he’ll get at least a little court time, he’ll be the least detrimental with the first unit.
And come to think of it...how awful would a CJ-Bogans backcourt be?
that’s clearly not an option. so the only reason to get mad at thibs is for not playing JJ
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
you are allowed to play less than 10 guys
Rose 38 / CJ 10
Brewer 28 / Korver 10 / CJ 10
Deng 38 / Korver 10
Boozer 34/ Taj 14
Noah 34 / Asik or KT 14
See – a 9 man rotation, no Bogans. You could easily increase Brewer and Korver’s minutes and take Bogans completely out of the equation. Some teams play with only 7 or 8 guys off the bench.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 16, 2011 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I for one would love to see how Brewer or Korver would play
if they both got between 28 and 24 minutes a night. Since they are both presumably better than Bogans, why not? (now I’ll stop replying to myself)
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 16, 2011 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
well...
a) Brewer is a poor fit as a starter (can’t spread the floor; best around the basket)
b) Korver would degrade the defense, which, if you haven’t noticed, is by far the Bulls greatest strength.
c) the bench would be degraded by default.
d) Bogans is currently playing his role well (solid defense; second only to Korver at shooting 3s)
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 16, 2011 11:35 PM CST up reply actions
small correction
Watson is shooting a better percentage from 3, but of those who have shot a lot of them, Bogans is second to Korver.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 16, 2011 11:38 PM CST up reply actions
all Bogans 3's are wide open
they aren’t even guarding him. I’ll give him credit for knocking them down lately, but I think Brewer can do more offensively than you give him credit for, especially when it comes to starting fast breaks and finishing fast breaks (despite his missed dunks).
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 16, 2011 11:39 PM CST up reply actions
yes, but...
if he continues to hit the 3s, and teams are forced to guard him, then that would leave Rose with one-on-one match-ups, or much easier passing options to the other three players on the floor. Either way, Bogans is filling his limited role in much more competent fashion than most give him credit for.
Sure, Brewer would be better on fast breaks, and Korver would be better for 3s, but starting either one will involve trade-offs, and it is far from clear that they would be a net positive.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 16, 2011 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
Teams aren't going to be forced to guard him because he's been hitting his threes
I doubt there’s a coach in this league who will instruct his players not to help on Rose because Bogans has upped his 3pt% to 40%. I think Korver is the only player on the roster teams might actively instruct their players to stay home on, and I could easily see the benefits of his spacing and superior shooting outweighing the loss in “solid” defense, especially once Noah is anchoring the paint.
this makes sense to me. i dont think pure 3pt shooters spread the
floor as much as people think; rather, they are used to penalize the opposition for packing it in. there are some exceptions to this, and i have to imagine a unique reputation for accuracy is behind them. korver is probably one of those guys whose 3pt%, as good as it is, belies his overall impact on the offense, in a good way.
"JJ has never made that floater. He’s probably never even practiced it, he just decided to take a floater, which is why he’s James Johnson."
-JocktrapNoah
that may be true...
in which case, if Bogans continues to hit threes at a good rate, he will be filling his role well.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 7:38 AM CST up reply actions
a) Bogans doesn’t spread the floor either
b) Korver would still be in his bench role, and I don’t think he’s that much worse than Bogans defensively
c) The upgrade in starting unit would easily offset any dropoff in the bench
d) He’ played his role well for about a week. Other than that, he’s barely looked like an NBA player, let alone a starter
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 16, 2011 11:41 PM CST up reply actions
I'd say that you are...
wrong
wrong
probably wrong
and wrong
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 16, 2011 11:45 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
He's right about A.
Other teams don’t respect Bogans, thats why he gets wide open shots. Even if Korver has missed 11 straight they are on him like glue, but for Bogans, if he’s made 11 straight they are still using his man to clog the paint.
Make Bogans beat you, don’t let Korver beat you. That seems to be the consistent strategy towards the two.
by JockstrapNoah on Feb 17, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions
you're missing a crucial point...
while you are correct in what you say, Bogans does effectively spread the floor in the sense that he can and does hit threes. So, from an offensive standpoint, he does provide good spacing.
Brewer, on the other hand, would have no chance to spread the floor in the same manner, as even the Bulls coaches wouldn’t want him to take open threes.
Yes, Korver would spread the defense in both senses, but again, the Bulls D would be degraded if he were to start.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting.
I think there are two valid definitions of “spacing the floor” here, and both you and Jockstrap champion only one of them. Being able to set up and knock down an outside shot is certainly one type of spacing, in that you have placed space between yourself and the other players and can capitalize on that by making the shot the space provides.
But Jockstrap’s view of “spacing the floor” is also valid, and generally regarded as a common benefit of having known shooters on the perimeter: it opens space in the middle of the floor to help others get closer, easier shots. To the extent teams sag off of Bogans, he is not creating that kind of spacing.
Now, ostensibly, a guy like Korver, who can both hit the shot and is respected for hitting the shot, would create both kinds of spacing. (As would a guy like OJ Mayo, or whatever other trade target we might get.)
agreed.
I would just prefer more defense than Korver can supply on the starting unit.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 22, 2011 9:14 PM CST up reply actions
My thoughts
a) Wrong
b) Oh how wrong
c) Wrong, wrong, wrong
d) Bogan is a good-looking young man.
I agree with all of that
If Bogans is getting wide open jumpers how is he spreading the floor?
Korvers defensives deficiencies are kind of exaggerated.
Not sure why people are so worried about the bench performance for this. Just split the minutes between Korver/Brewer.
I just think the others are being contrarians at this point.
"Well you're giving me the opportunity to agree with Bill Plaschke and Marriotti, I'm gonna pass" - Tim Cowlishaw
Thank you!
What is wrong with this? People act like someone will die if Bogans doesn’t play. He basically shoud’ve played as much as JJ this year, if everything went according to plan.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 16, 2011 11:37 PM CST up reply actions
whose plan? your plan?
cause thibs’ plan seems to be, let’s establish a system around rose, booz, deng and noah that holds everyone accountable. it’s working pretty well. neither brewer, korver or JJ work well enough to get big minutes in that system.
that might change, but for now we’re a top team, even though everyone else’s summer “plan” had us winning like 45 games and being a guaranteed second round out.
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
by paddyfairview on Feb 17, 2011 2:39 AM CST up reply actions
The "plan" I was referring to was management's plan for Bogans, the reason he was signed
Every Bulls beat reporter has said multiple times that Bogans was brought in as an emergency backup, in the event that Ronnie’s hamstring issue from last season lingered. Ronnie was supposed to be the starting two, and Bogans was supposed to be resigned to the bench pretty much. But, as you know, Ronnie missed a significant amount of training camp due to injury, Bogans started in his absence, and things have stayed that way. And I have no clue what you’re talking about here:
but for now we’re a top team, even though everyone else’s summer "plan" had us winning like 45 games and being a guaranteed second round out.
You sound kinda bitter or something. I think most people around here, myself included, were pretty optimistic about the Bulls this season. Are you trying to say that Bogans is one of the main reasons behind the team’s record? Can’t figure out what you’re getting at
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 17, 2011 3:34 AM CST up reply actions
but in NBA 2K11 starters demand trades if they don't play enough minutes?
it is so frustrating that the best place to chat about the bulls is dominated by a whiny drama queen moderator with a man crush on an average SG......6 recs
by BigforkBullsFan on Feb 17, 2011 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
I'm saying thibs making the efficiency of his system priority number one has worked really well
and our opinion, or beat writers’ opinions, do not necessarily reflect what the team was planning to do (if they were planning anything besides giving thibs the best players they could get and letting him go to work). we have exceeded almost everyone’s expectations this season, so thibs deserves the benefit of the doubt. that’s all i’m saying.
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
by paddyfairview on Feb 17, 2011 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
How much of an advantage is there in running 10 guys?
Honest question here because I haven’t really heard it discussed before. There must be some sort of advantage in terms of energy and guys’ ability to stay healthy over an entire season if we divide the minutes between 10 as opposed to 8 or 9.
Of course playing Deng as much as the Bulls doesn’t seem entirely consistent with that idea.
i don't know how much of an advantage is because as you mention
Deng and Rose still play heavy minutes. In Thibs credit, most 10 man rotations I’ve seen don’t have roles as clearly defined as the Bulls. Usually when teams go with 10 men, it throws a bunch of them off rhythm. I don’t know if that is the case with the Bulls. But it could explain some of the inconsistency we see from Brewer and Korver who would be the most likely to get Bogans 18 minutes a night if he was moved out of the rotation.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 17, 2011 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
The article makes very logical points.
Thibs wants Bogans to start because he can defend and shoot the 3 a little. He does not need him to score double digits, since the other 4 can score. Thibs needs Korver and Brewer off the bench, to have a legitimate 2nd unit. If he needs defense, Brewer comes in and when needs offense at the 2, Korver comes in.
Bogans still needs to get replace. I hope we can acquire Lee and have him start. We do not need OJ Mayo or JR Smith. We just need a 5th option that’ll give consistent production, and Lee can provide that.
I hope the Bulls acquire Lee without giving up Asik. JJ + Multiple Picks for Lee.
by RoseFTW on Feb 16, 2011 11:16 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Thibs wants Bogans to start because he can defend and shoot the 3 a little. He does not need him to score double digits, since the other 4 can score.
Yeah, that would make sense if Bogans was actually providing those things, but he hasn’t all season. Are people really forgetting how awful he’s been because a couple bad games? This is the guy that is celebrated when he scores 6 points. We don’t need the two guard to be Kobe Bryant, but we would at least like the opposition to recognize that we are stating someone at the position
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 16, 2011 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
no...
you’re being absurdly hyperbolic. He has been a solid defender all season. He was shooting poorly for quite a while, but has been shooting very well for several weeks now.
No one is celebrating him, but the notion that the Bulls would have a significantly better record had he not been starting is ridiculous.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 16, 2011 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
I posted this in the other thread a while ago
But I’m going to repost it here since it’s relevant. The numbers have probably changed slightly but I’m too lazy to relook them up.
- So far this season, Keith Bogans has held opposing SGs to 20.8 points/48 minutes on a .534 eFG% with a PER of 15.2.
- Korver, on the other hand has held opposing SGs to 20.4 points/48 minutes on a .419 eFG% with a PER of 10.4.
- Also, Ronnie Brewer has held opposing SGs to 19.3 points/48 minutes on a .465 eFG% with a PER of 12.5.
This is certainly not conclusive: Bogans probably faces better players on average since he starts, which probably negatively skews his numbers, but that evidence suggests that Bogans is not a dramatically superior defender to Korver or Brewer.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 16, 2011 11:56 PM CST up reply actions
As I've stated...
Brewer is a good defender, but not the right fit for the starters offensively. Korver is beaten and/or commits dumb fouls much more often than Bogans. One shouldn’t need stats to see that distinction. Also, there’s no “probably” about it: Bogans faces better guards.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 12:02 AM CST up reply actions
Actually there is a 'probably'
Bogans only plays on average about 8 minutes at the start of each half. And while it’s true that he’s facing the other team’s starter during that period (usually the best player at that position on the team), the other guys (Brewer and Korver), still have to guard that same player in other portions of the game, and probably for the same amount of minutes, or more.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 17, 2011 12:08 AM CST up reply actions
brewer yes, sure. korver barely plays more minutes than bogans and always gets the easiest available assignment
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
by paddyfairview on Feb 17, 2011 2:48 AM CST up reply actions
Korver s on the floor at the end of games all the time
And he has to guard the opposing starter, so I don’t think he’s always facing scrubs
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 17, 2011 3:36 AM CST up reply actions
If Bogans
always guards the other team’s starter, and Brewer/Korver sometimes guard bench players, it seems obvious to me that Bogans defensive numbers should be and will be higher. I don’t see how there can be any argument that Bogan’s assignment is tougher.
I like Poloplaya’s numbers because they illustrate that Korver and Brewer have done a good job no mater who it was they were guarding, but I’m not going to draw the conclusion that they’ve been doing a better job than Bogans because it’s not an equal playing field.
Bogans doesn't play in the fourth quarter
When the other team’s best scoring option is almost certainly in the game. So while yes, in the first 5-10 minutes it’s Bogans, Brewer is taking him for the last 5-10 minutes, when a SG is likely giving more effort to score.
If anything, Brewer’s stats are biased negatively from playing in crunch time when the other team’s best players are making their best effort to score.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
I think a SG “putting more effort to score” during a certain stretch is something that you made up on the spot and isn’t backed up by anything observationally or statistically.
It’s actually been demonstrated that offenses fall apart at the end of games, and teams score far under their game average during the last few minutes of the 4th..
correct...
it’s the old “give the ball to Kobe (Michael, Derrick, etc.)” syndrome.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 11:40 AM CST up reply actions
Are you suggesting
That teams don’t go to their go to scorer in crunch time minutes?
Clearly more effort is given at the end of the games on both sides of the ball, and since defense is more reliant on effort, team defense as a whole is going to improve. To suggest though, that teams aren’t going to their best scoring option at the end of games seems nonsensical.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
not nonsense...
and this has been discussed quite a bit recently. Yes, teams will often go to their “scorer”, but the results are generally poor, as plays break down, and the defensive focus is on the obvious player(s).
There has been a lot written recently about Kobe’s relative ineffectiveness as the go-to guy at crunch time, and how the Lakers coaches would always prefer to go with the triangle offense.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
What he said
We haven’t established that a SG is always the teams best scorer, and on those occasions when he isn’t he might never touch the ball in the final minutes, making him a lot easier to defend.
On those occasions where he is the best scorer, he’s easier to defend as the rest of the team can almost abandon the 4th and 5th least likely scorers in order to focus on the gunning SG. The SG in this situation may “try harder”, but that does not equal being harder to defend.
I’ve been reading a lot of the end of game numbers precisely because of all the “is Kobe Bryant clutch” articles, and it definitely becomes a lot harder to score in crunch time, unless you’re the Hornets.
"probably faces better players on average"? than korver?
the guy who guards starting 2’s “probably” has tougher assignments than the guy thibs barely trusts to guard the slowest wing in the opposing rotation? give me a break.
"Everyone loves it when the guy everyone loves tells how the guy everyone hates is a big pussy." -cayal
by paddyfairview on Feb 17, 2011 2:47 AM CST up reply actions
Okay, Bogans definitely faces better players on average than Korver
But relative to Brewer, I think probably is an apt term.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Interesting. . .
How many minutes do you have Korver at SG, compared to the other two?
According to 82games.com...
Bogans has played 33% of the Bulls’ minutes at SG, Korver has played 14% of the Bulls’ minutes at SG, and Brewer has played 47% of the Bulls’ minutes at SG.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Don't put words in my mouth
I never said they would have a “significantly better record”. A better record? Probably. I doubt it would be significant though. And I don’t think I am being hyperbolic at all. For most of the season Bogans has been a dreadful offensive player. His defense has been mediocre at best, but it’s masked by a terrific scheme. While his shooting has improved somewhat, I’m sure that is aided by the fact that most of his shots are WIDE OPEN looks. The reason he’s getting those looks is because he hasn’t made the shot all year. So yeah, he sucks.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 16, 2011 11:59 PM CST up reply actions
ahem...
“For most of the season Bogans has been a dreadful offensive player.”
That is the very definition of hyperbole, given that he has shot .467 from 3pt since Christmas. FOUR SIXTY SEVEN for the past seven weeks. I’d like see some other players to play such dreadful offense.
His defense is better than mediocre, whether you notice it or not. He almost never leaves his feet in reaction to fakes; he gets through/around picks well; and he doesn’t make many mistakes.
I’ve addressed the “wide open” point above,
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 12:07 AM CST up reply actions
Really?
Just because he’s shot 46% from three for a month and a half, he can’t be dreadful? Give me a break. How many attempts a game is he averaging during that span anyway? And has he done anything else offensively besides hit threes at a decent clip? When I say "dreadful, which is the word you seem to have an issue with, I mean by NBA standards, and I absolutely stand by it. It’s not hyperbole.
I didn't want to type this sentence, the force from an Omer Asik dunk made my fingers do it.
by Juiceboxjerry on Feb 17, 2011 12:17 AM CST up reply actions
Everyone knows...
that he is limited offensively. But his 3pt shooting, while uneven, has been fine for the season, and very good over a seven week span. Dreadful? Please.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 17, 2011 8:33 AM CST up reply actions
i think you two
are sharing the same half empty/full glass
one's spitting into it
and the other is looking at it and going ‘that doesn’t look THAT bad’
New sig coming, but it's a process.
by Prevenge on Feb 17, 2011 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with the viewpoint that starting your 5 best rotation players is not necessarily optimal
Depending on how well a player fits with the other players on the team, I definitely believe a team could be better off with a player coming off the bench behind an inferior player, as long as the superior player still gets more minutes in the end. I have no problem with seeing a guy like Brewer, who’s probably the best overall SG on this team, come off the bench instead as long as he gets “starters’ minutes.”
However, Bogans is not very good. As others have pointed out, he should not be playing at all.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Recently, he has been much better.
But who is the real Bogans? The one we saw from Sept-Dec? Or the one we’ve seen in Jan-Feb?
The only thing that has been better is his 3-pt shooting
He was cold early in the season, and he’s been hot lately. The “real Bogans” is somewhere in between.
Pat Riley is the devil.
I don't understand the fascination with the defense Bogans plays.
He’s slow and flatfooted. He gets burnt by the opposing sg all the time. Maybe I’m just looking for something to hate but I can’t remember the last time I thought to myself, “wow that was good defense Bogans.” If the man he’s guarding is even a little bit quick Bogans isn’t able to stay in front of him for shit and ends up fouling after getting burnt.
Meh
Starting isn’t of illusory importance. There’s two sides to the argument that you can hide Bogans offensively with the other starters. The upside is you don’t have them playing with offensively weak bench players, but the downside is our other starters get that many fewer open looks.
In economics, the key concept for situations like this is to think at the margin. Never mind how many minutes each guy plays right now. Think… given the rest of my lineup, would I be better off with another minute of A) Bogans or B) Brewer, or C) Korver?
I tend to think if you look at it on a minute by minute basis, you’d quickly erode Bogans’ minutes to zero. You’d start Korver and play him an extra few minutes. You’d play Brewer an extra few minutes. You probably would try to sneak in JJ for a few
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
by Sports2 on Feb 17, 2011 7:58 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Bogans could just not play at all though..
The point isn’t that he starts, it’s that he gets any minutes. We have two other SG’s and Watson. There’s just no need for him to ever see the court, I could care less if he’s starting or coming off the bench. If the other guys don’t have it that night, then you let Bogans play, but you certainly don’t guarantee him minutes, which is what you’re doing when you start him.
This is like starting your middle relief pitcher and then putting in your ace in the second or third inning. While it’s possible your ace would have struggled and only pitched 5 innings that night and you’d have needed the middle relief pitcher, there’s no reason to start the game as if it will happen that way.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 8:31 AM CST reply actions
I think it's pretty simple
Bogans plays to start the 1st and the 3rd to tire the opponents starter. Brewer enters. Brewer is then working with fresh legs against a player with tired legs. Just that little edge lets Brewer’s talents in transition shine.
I can predict the future using Norm Van Lier's crystal balls.
"Sam has a tendency to denigrate reports coming from any reporter who didn’t also cover the day Naismith first put up the peach baskets." - snley
No
Bogans doesn’t tire anyone. He might bring “toughness” and make the fellow work a little harder on offense. However, any benefit derived from that is lost because that same player is able to sleep on defense. What little offense Bogans offense has is completely predictable.
Do you know what would tire the SG out and make it easier for Brewer to shine when he comes in? Chasing Korver all around the court and getting decked while trying to run around a KT screen.
by silentpete on Feb 17, 2011 9:10 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.. beat me to it.
That’s just a ridiculous notion, clearly requires more work to guard Korver than it does Bogans.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 9:11 AM CST up reply actions
If that's the case..
Have Korver run around looking for open 3’s. The other team’s SG is going to do a lot more work chasing an elite shooter like Korver around.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 17, 2011 9:10 AM CST up reply actions
We are 21 games over 0.500%. We are way better then I expected when season started. So Bogans gets limited minutes in 1st and 3rd quarters.
Big deal. This leaves Korver and Brewer with plenty of minutes with Rose and CJ making the second unit quite productive. Long live Thibs and may he continue to coach in any way he pleases.
Why not start Korver?
The reason not to start Korver would be that he can not guard the 2 spot. That is a legitimate concern. If Korver can basically not guard the two, then Bogans needs to be in the rotation anyway so who cares if he starts. I took a look at all Utah Jazz lineups from last year that had Korver. I sorted them by defensive points per possession and here is what you get:
(/pre)
# Unit Min Off Def +/- W L Win%
15 Gaines-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 17 .95 .74 7 2 1 66
18 Williams-Brewer-Korver-Millsap-Okur 15 1.44 .77 19 3 0 100
11 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Millsap-Okur 22 1.36 .85 24 6 1 85
9 Price-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Okur 25 1.06 .86 11 6 1 85
8 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Okur 26 1.19 .91 16 3 2 60
16 Williams-Brewer-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 15 .95 .91 5 2 4 33
13 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Fesenko 20 1.19 .93 10 2 1 66
6 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Boozer-Okur 34 1.15 .99 19 5 2 71
14 Price-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 18 .90 1.00 -3 3 5 37
10 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Boozer-Okur 23 1.17 1.03 7 5 3 62
2 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 82 1.10 1.07 6 7 9 43
12 Williams-Korver-Miles-Boozer-Okur 22 .73 1.07 -20 2 3 40
17 Gaines-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Fesenko 15 1.11 1.08 2 1 2 33
4 Williams-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 54 1.34 1.09 21 10 5 66
1 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 109 1.21 1.11 27 12 10 54
5 Williams-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Boozer 52 1.31 1.11 18 10 7 58
20 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Koufos 13 1.06 1.13 -2 1 2 33
7 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Boozer 32 1.05 1.15 -5 2 4 33
19 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Koufos 13 .93 1.15 -8 1 3 25
3 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer 60 1.32 1.19 13 7 7 50
"Mental toughness is to physical as four is to one." - Bob Knight
Crap...need a delete feature for idiots like me
Let’s try that chart again
# Unit Min Off Def
15 Gaines-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 17 .95 .74
18 Williams-Brewer-Korver-Millsap-Okur 15 1.44 .77
11 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Millsap-Okur 22 1.36 .85
9 Price-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Okur 25 1.06 .86
8 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Okur 26 1.19 .91
16 Williams-Brewer-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 15 .95 .91
13 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Fesenko 20 1.19 .93
6 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Boozer-Okur 34 1.15 .99
14 Price-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 18 .90 1.00
10 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Boozer-Okur 23 1.17 1.03
2 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 82 1.10 1.07
12 Williams-Korver-Miles-Boozer-Okur 22 .73 1.07
17 Gaines-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Fesenko 15 1.11 1.08
4 Williams-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Okur 54 1.34 1.09
1 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Boozer 109 1.21 1.11
5 Williams-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Boozer 52 1.31 1.11
20 Williams-Matthews-Korver-Millsap-Koufos 13 1.06 1.13
7 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Boozer 32 1.05 1.15
19 Price-Korver-Miles-Millsap-Koufos 13 .93 1.15
3 Williams-Korver-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer 60 1.32 1.19
So it looks like of Korver’s 10 best defensive lineups, 4 of them are at the SG and 6 are at the SF. That doesn’t mean a ton since many of his best defensive lineups did not play a ton of minutes (which speaks very highly about Korver’s defensive ability), but I think it does show that although he is a bad defender, he is not going to kill you a ton worse at the SG spot. However, here is what worries me: Korver’s top 5 defensive lineups are all without Boozer! Korver can be a good team defender, but not if he has terrible help behind him. Starting him right now would be a terrible idea (although Brewer might be a better choice). Perhaps when Noah gets back and he has solid help behind him, this is a good call.
Here is what I think should happen: Once Noah returns, plug Brewer into the starting lineup. Brewer is limited offensively and Noah should help boost the offense a bit and allow the team to run more which will allow Brewer to shine. Play Korver at the SG spot in lineups with a frontcourt of Noah and Taj. This puts two solid defenders behind him, which will mask his defensive liability. I think by doing this we could get rid of Bogans from the lineup!
"Mental toughness is to physical as four is to one." - Bob Knight
by DRose01 on Feb 17, 2011 10:29 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think the big ones here are the high-sample SG lineups
They don’t look that bad, either, to be honest.
More stats:
82games:
http://www.82games.com/1011/10CHI6.HTM
Last year:
http://www.82games.com/0910/09UTA8.HTM
Look at the PER splits near the bottom.
New sig coming, but it's a process.
I went back and did a thread about this last summer
And my main conclusion is that there’s no much to be drawn from the 82games 5-man lineups. Look at the lineups where he’s listed as the SG. He’s playing with CJ Miles in most of them. Who do you think was guarding the more athletic wing between him and CJ Miles?
Defensively, he was the “SF” in the vast majority of those lineups.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
Thanks for the research
And I think you are right that Korver can have success on defense in limited situations. I think it has more to do with who he is guarding- Korver can play the 2 if he is up against Bogans. You are not going to have him match up against Wade, Johnson, Jackson- basically anybody who can put it on the floor or post him up. You maybe take a chance giving him minutes against other pure shooters, like Ray Allen.
Am I the only one reminded of the Dad with 2 sons and a daughter?
And they play 2 on 2 basketball so the daughter is always teamed with the dad because if she is teamed with one of the sons then the Dad team will always win?
Payback Week Assassination Missions:
Bobcats: Mission Accomplished plus bonus Big Macs for E-Rob.
Spurs:
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Feb 17, 2011 5:29 PM CST reply actions
Am I the only one who has gradually shared yBB's sentiment of not liking this guy above me?
Payback Week Assassination Missions:
Bobcats: Mission Accomplished plus bonus Big Macs for E-Rob.
Spurs:
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Feb 17, 2011 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
I'd just disagree with the gradual part
Well, isn't what LeBron did last night the living embodiment of The Secret, leaving millions on the table and turning himself into a hometown villain, all for the sake of winning?
Neil Paine, basketball-reference.com
by snley on Feb 18, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
i often disagree with him, but i find his thoughts to be generally valuable.
however, hes become completely tyrannized by snark of late. dont blame him too much though— this can be a pretty hostile site.
"JJ has never made that floater. He’s probably never even practiced it, he just decided to take a floater, which is why he’s James Johnson."
-JocktrapNoah
by TheMoon on Feb 19, 2011 2:08 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
you get a rec though for funny.
"JJ has never made that floater. He’s probably never even practiced it, he just decided to take a floater, which is why he’s James Johnson."
-JocktrapNoah
They were consumed by the malice and destruction on this site long ago
New sig coming, but it's a process.
I didn't think of it
but that seems fairly apt. :P
New sig coming, but it's a process.
what if the family is the parkers:
anthony, candace, and their brother? ;)
Look
I didn’t want to offend anyone by saying the "f" word or generalizing my statement to any particular sex by saying "gays" or lesbians" or "bi’s" so "homos" is the most "politically correct" term. I’m just trying to be more tact in a tactless blog.
by Hindut Patrol on Feb 15, 2011 2:51 PM EST
Then everybody wins
As long as Shelden Williams isn’t invited.
Payback Week Assassination Missions:
Bobcats: Mission Accomplished plus bonus Big Macs for E-Rob.
Spurs: Mission Accomplished. Everything coming up 'Roses.'
Atlanta, we'll get you too..
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Feb 18, 2011 8:53 PM CST up reply actions














