Basketball Prospectus with a new stat - BOGANS
by bigintangibles on Feb 10, 2011 4:07 AM CST
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PrintBradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus has put together a new statistic that gives us all some more fuel to the fire that Keith Bogans should not be starting and, appropriately, he has named it BOGANS (subscriber).
Doolittle says he began casually tracking whether the Bulls were outscoring their opponents while Bogans was on the floor using unadjusted plus-minus, and was expressing it as a won-loss record, rather than in a points-per-game context. He then compares that to the Bulls' overall record and sees where it places. The results are interesting:
PLAYER TEAM W L T PCT TM% RATIO
Kyle Korver CHI 34 13 2 .714 .694 1.029
Derrick Rose CHI 33 14 1 .698 .694 1.006
Luol Deng CHI 30 18 1 .622 .694 .897
Ronnie Brewer CHI 28 21 0 .571 .694 .824
Omer Asik CHI 27 19 3 .582 .694 .838
C.J. Watson CHI 25 21 3 .541 .694 .779
Keith Bogans CHI 25 24 0 .510 .694 .735
Carlos Boozer CHI 22 8 1 .726 .694 1.046
Taj Gibson CHI 21 20 6 .511 .694 .736
Kurt Thomas CHI 17 12 1 .583 .694 .841
Joakim Noah CHI 15 9 0 .625 .694 .901
James Johnson CHI 7 4 1 .625 .694 .901
Brian Scalabrine CHI 5 9 0 .357 .694 .515
Unsurprisingly, Scal sucks, and the Bulls tend to outscore their opponents most frequently when Rose, Korver and Boozer are on the floor.
Doolittle concludes:
That the Bulls would consistently struggle to this degree with Bogans on the floor is a clear signal that the position needs to be upgraded.
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It looks, from this, like Taj sucks too..
This seems like a tortured statistic.
by DisCUBbobulated on Feb 10, 2011 6:34 AM CST reply actions
I've long been convinced that Korver should be the starter
The offense just looks so much better when he’s out there on the court, and since the +/- numbers support that observation, there’s really no doubt in my mind that he’s the best starting 2 option for the Bulls. Aside from providing a much-needed perimeter threat, the fact that he’s willing and able to quickly move the ball makes him the perfect complement to Rose/Boozer.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 10, 2011 7:45 AM CST reply actions 4 recs
In addition, he's not that bad a defender
when he has to chase around jump shot experts like Allen he struggles, but for the most part he works extremely hard and knows where he needs to be on the court. I think that, when Noah returns, he should move into the starting spot since the big man help defense will be much improved with Noah back in the lineup.
West Coast Assassination Missions:
Clippers: Mission Accomplished
Warriors: Mission Aborted: Due to violent bay area locals.
Trail Blazers: Mission Failed: Foiled by Rudy's hobo beard.
Jazz: Mission Accomplished
Hornets:
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Feb 10, 2011 7:56 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Guys that Korver cannot guard:
Allen, Jackson, Wade, Johnson, Richardson, am I leaving anyone important out? He is a bad defender at his natural position of SF, at SG he is quite possibly the worst defender in the NBA. Players eyes light up when Korver is guarding them. Here is how bad he is- if Korver were playing against the Bulls at SG, Tibs would run plays for Bogans to shoot!!!
Yeah, I forgot how effective Bogans is against them.
/facepalm.
West Coast Assassination Missions:
Clippers: Mission Accomplished
Warriors: Mission Aborted: Due to violent bay area locals.
Trail Blazers: Mission Failed: Foiled by Rudy's hobo beard.
Jazz: Mission Accomplished
Hornets:
by Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. on Feb 11, 2011 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
Fun fact of the day
So far this season, Keith Bogans has held opposing SGs to 20.8 points/48 minutes on a .534 eFG% with a PER of 15.2. Korver, on the other hand has held opposing SGs to 20.4 points/48 minutes on a .419 eFG% with a PER of 10.4.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 11, 2011 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Oh
Also, Ronnie Brewer has held opposing SGs to 19.3 points/48 minutes on a .465 eFG% with a PER of 12.5.
All these numbers are from 82games.com, BTW.
Pat Riley is the devil.
Evidence?
You have none for bullshit spurious “analysis” like “at SG he is quite possibly the worst defender in the NBA.”
But I’m sure the patented ocular photometer you use to gauge the amount of light emanating from the eyes of various players on the court will hit the streets soon — then we’ll all see!
No Thibs wouldn't
Bogans doesn’t get plays run for him even though everyone who guards Bogans plays ten feet off him to bait him into open threes.
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
Yup.
He’s really not a 2, but I think defensively you put Deng on the tougher wing cover in any case, and try to hide him.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
better than hiding bogans on both ends
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
by Prevenge on Feb 10, 2011 6:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I would rec you more for the archer reference, but I only have one rec to give
Bogans should call Kenny Loggins, because …
he puts the Bulls in …
…
…
the danger zone!!!
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
by Prevenge on Feb 11, 2011 6:31 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
You're right. Our defense is terrible as it is. I don't think we can afford to make this sort of move.
BullsTwo > Back up and running!
by Sports2 on Feb 11, 2011 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
According to this stat, KT's better than Asik
By a margin of a 1 tenth of a winning percentage.
Pat Riley is the devil.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 10, 2011 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
if you voted for bogans
1. you are out of your mind
2. should not be allowed to drive
3. should not be allowed to vote in US elections
4. should not be allowed to have children
Rodman is the best.
i can't vote for
ABB because larry hughes is ABB.
by Jaina on Feb 10, 2011 11:50 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
He should've organized the graph by win% and not just wins ...
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
by Prevenge on Feb 10, 2011 12:32 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I think he was trying to account for playing time.
Which makes sense, since this was an exercise in examining how little Bogans has contributed to the Bulls’ total wins and losses this season.
well, but it still doesn't.
The way the graph is now it rates Noah [and Thomas!] under Bogans, and I just didn’t like that at all. :P
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
It would certainly make comparing things easier
The whole thing comes with a giant caveat that you need to adjust for sample size, strength of supporting cast, role, etc, etc
PLAYER TEAM W L T PCT TM% RATIO
Carlos Boozer CHI 22 8 1 0.726 0.694 1.046
Kyle Korver CHI 34 13 2 0.714 0.694 1.029
Derrick Rose CHI 33 14 1 0.698 0.694 1.006
Joakim Noah CHI 15 9 0 0.625 0.694 0.901
James Johnson CHI 7 4 1 0.625 0.694 0.901
Luol Deng CHI 30 18 1 0.622 0.694 0.897
Kurt Thomas CHI 17 12 1 0.583 0.694 0.841
Omer Asik CHI 27 19 3 0.582 0.694 0.838
Ronnie Brewer CHI 28 21 0 0.571 0.694 0.824
C.J. Watson CHI 25 21 3 0.541 0.694 0.779
Taj Gibson CHI 21 20 6 0.511 0.694 0.736
Keith Bogans CHI 25 24 0 0.51 0.694 0.735
Brian Scalabrine CHI 5 9 0 0.357 0.694 0.515
I voted for Brewer
Pairing up Brewer/Boozer and Korver/Taj makes the most sense to me. You can get away hiding Korver on D by putting Deng on the tougher perimeter offensive player some of the time, but that’s not always going to work. Korver works hard and knows where to be on rotations most of the time but he still doesn’t have the athleticism to guard certain guys. I think he’d serve us best as an offensive spark off the bench.
"Are you not entertained, Funk?!?"
the problem with that, IMHO,
is that Korver isn’t really an offensive spark by virtue of being elite in isos and creating his own shot. He’s elite because of the space he creates for the other guys, and thus the first unit would be best served with his addition, even though it would make them a bit weaker defensively.
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
by Prevenge on Feb 10, 2011 6:44 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I can agree with your reasoning
Honestly I would be fine with either, but I’d just prefer Brewer. Just as long as Bogans isn’t starting.
"Are you not entertained, Funk?!?"
by pocketwatch on Feb 10, 2011 10:39 PM CST up reply actions
I like Brewer a lot too, he's great [though he makes more errors than I remember]
it’s just that watching Korver run off twelve screens to either immediately become tripleteamed or just not get passed to is … painful.
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
How's Roger Mason doing?
Did anybody else think that the Bulls logo upside down looks like a robot reading a book on a bench?
Has he even played in a game this year? I don't think so.
He’s been passed in the depth chart by Andy Rautins, if that helps any.
CDR and Courtney Lee: just two players the Bulls could have at SG this year.
RIP Keith Bogans Prophecy [12-1]
The biggest problem with Korver starting, in my opinion
is that then the second unit (CJ, Brewer/Bogans, Taj, Asik, Deng?) has just one offensive option, and he plays 40+ minutes a night.
So the only real solution is getting Bogans out of the rotation completely and finding another player who can generate offense at the SG position.
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