ESPN.com '11-12 Predictions
Out of thirty ESPN reporters, two pick the Thunder to win it all, three pick the Bulls, and 25 pick the Heat. Larry Coon, Zach Harper, and Jon Barry pick the Bulls.
5 months ago
Tim S.
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i had to see what the picks were last year.
Look
I didn’t want to offend anyone by saying the "f" word or generalizing my statement to any particular sex by saying "gays" or lesbians" or "bi’s" so "homos" is the most "politically correct" term. I’m just trying to be more tact in a tactless blog.
by Hindut Patrol on Feb 15, 2011 2:51 PM EST
by Jaina on Dec 23, 2011 1:48 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
It's easy for them all to pick the Heat to win it all.
If the Heat do win the title, it feeds into the narrative of an emerging dynasty.
If the Heat lose, it means more stories about controversy and not meeting “expectations.”
"Smith stripped. Smith stopped! Smith stopped again by Pippen!"
by ColonelFatheart on Dec 23, 2011 2:58 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
Exactly, keeps all the basketball fans watching, and waiting.
On the J.R. Smith bandwagon until otherwise advised.
check out the east predictions
everyone but barry and coon chose miami….
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
what's really funny is looking back at Hollinger picking the Bucks to win the Central
by Rose Colored Goggles on Dec 23, 2011 3:13 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Have these guys ever predicted anything right?
Seriously, why doesn’t ESPN pay me to sit there and predict the flashiest team to win it all every year? Is it really hard for all of them to pick the Lakers last year?
THEO!
by wrigleyrocker12 on Dec 23, 2011 3:26 PM CST reply actions
I love the Sheep there.
The East is very Stars and Scrubs right now, with really only two true “star” teams left in the Bulls and Heat. There are also probably 5 pseudo-star teams in New York, Indy, Orlando, Atlanta (who will never win anything with that roster), and Boston. The rest are scrubs.
In the West, that’s just a cluster. And I mean that in the most sincere way. Nobody knows who’s even going to make the PLAYOFFS, much less win that conference. Heck, the Lakers could end up NOT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS this season with their age and depth problems.
I think that, barring some Dirk Miracle type of playoffs, whichever team comes out of the East will win the NBA Championship, and I think the Bulls are better suited for 66 games in 120 days than the Heat considering their 1-11 depth and relative youth.
by Doshi on Dec 23, 2011 4:15 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Yes, but are the Bulls better suited
for a seven-game playoff series with the Heat?
Otherwise, I agree with you. The Heat and Bulls will both threaten to win 58 games in the East (which would beat the Bulls 72-10 winning percentage) while as many as eight different teams could contend for the best record in the West (don’t forget the Spurs got the best record in the West last year).
you really believe a team is going to be on pace to win 58 games
with the compressed nature of this schedule? I don’t think so. Coming off the 8th game in 11 days, even the Heat and Bulls are going to lose some games they should win.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 23, 2011 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not saying they will do it, but I think they may threaten it.
Then someone will get hurt, or they’ll get fatigued during a killer stretch, and the possibility will fade. I think 51-15 is more likely for the season, but 20-2 through the first third or 29-4 through the half are possibilities. Heck, San Antonio was threatening the record through the half-way point last year, before incurring injuries and fading.
We will find out soon enough. If the Bulls can start 10-1 despite eight games on the road and five back-to-backs, or if Miami can start 10-1 despite seven games on the road and four back-to-backs, there will definitely be talk about winning 58 games. Heck, people are already talking about Miami winning 58, and the season hasn’t even started yet.
by Tim S. on Dec 23, 2011 5:36 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Does anyone know of a quick way to figure out
how often the 2nd and 3rd of our games from 2/3 in a rows are the 1st or 2nd respectively of our opponents? I would hope it averages out in the end. I mean, if we’re coming off our 8th in 11 days, how many did our opponent just have? That’s why I think the depth argument for our impending success is so likely true. If we’re playing the heat, and we’ve both had 8 in 11 preceding days, their stars will likely be more fatigued.
I don't know of a quick way, no.
But I do think our biggest challenge in the first month will be the Clippers on December 30, because the Clippers are now good, they are at home, and unlike the Bulls they will not have played the night before, let alone four road games in six nights. Then there’s the Miami game on January 29. But even though there are back to backs in December and January, I still feel like the Bulls should beat Golden State, Detroit, Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, Toronto, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Washington, all in the second games of back to backs.
Well, okay, maybe they will lose to Atlanta in Atlanta — but maybe not, because that is the third game of a back-to-back-to-back for Atlanta. Maybe Golden State? But Golden State plays the Clippers the night before. Maybe Phoenix? But that game is in Chicago.
I’m sure the Bulls will lose more than two games in December and January, but I would have a hard time figuring out which losses would not surprise me, other than the Clippers on December 30 and Miami on January 29. Even then we may see the Bulls rise to the occasion against the better teams and then lose to someone they should beat.
Of course, maybe one preseason game with Hamilton has me irrationally giddy.
teams lose to teams they should beat all the time
and i think that will be magnified over a short, compressed season. Some night b/c of travel and games played, they won’t just have it. So they will lose some games to borderline playoff teams. It happens every year.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 24, 2011 9:42 AM CST up reply actions
Of course it does, but
predicting which of those games will be losses is a complete crapshoot.
Plus, I’m more worried about the inevitable injury bug which hits every team in the league sooner or later. Even if the Bulls started out 20-2, I wouldn’t be at all confident that they would end up 60-6 — just look at the Spurs last year. At the end of November, 15-2 (on pace for 72 wins); end of December, 28-4 (still on pace for 72); end of January, 40-7 (still on pace for 70); end of February, 49-10 (still on pace for 68). Then injuries hit and the wheels fell off in March and April and the playoffs.
my point is that injuries, loss focus, upsets
happen to every team. So to predict that a team will win the equivalent of 72 games in a lockout season seems a reach. Only 1 team has ever won over 70 games and there is a reason for that and its not luck.
Of course, at separate times teams have been on pace for that record. But the record is tough to reach BECAUSE the season is such a grueling marathon. And in a season that promises to be more grueling than most it seems kind of ridiculous to say “The Heat and Bulls will both threaten to win 58 games in the East (which would beat the Bulls 72-10 winning percentage).” To me, its like you are saying this year’s Bulls and Heat team are as good as that 97-98 Bulls team, and if they can just avoid injury they can repeat what that team did. I don’t believe that they are and I believe the conditions are much tougher this year.
Neither team will threaten to win that many games. Neither team will have the necessary health or drive it takes to accomplish 70 wins. Neither team is that good. The Spurs failed like so many other teams before them because the season is so brutal, because they didn’t have the focus, because they weren’t good enough.
Its not like the 95-96 Bulls didn’t face injuries. Pippen missed 5 games. Rodman missed 18, Longley missed 20. The only guys to play 82 games that season were Jordan and Kerr. The Bulls were 5-0 when Pippen didn’t play. 15-3 without Rodman. 16-4 without Longley. I don’t think either Miami or Chicago is that good.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 24, 2011 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
I never predicted that any team would win
the equivalent of 72 games. I just said “The Heat and Bulls will both threaten to win 58 games in the East.” Threaten to win, not win. Just as the Spurs threatened to win 72 games last year.
I agree that injuries are inevitable and that is why I am worried about them. But right now the Bulls are healthy and if they remain that way for a couple or three months I do think they could threaten the record — and then, very likely, fall short.
As for how the Bulls would deal with injuries, I think they have every position covered except for point guard. Last year most people predicted disaster when Noah went out, but it didn’t happen, not because Noah is worse than we thought, but because the Bulls were deep. They are deep again this year — except at point guard.
Miami, on the other hand, is shallow at every position. If they lose one of the Big Three, they are in big trouble. If they lose Haslem they may be in trouble against the better teams. And they don’t really have a great point guard.
by Tim S. on Dec 24, 2011 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
the Spurs won 61 games
they didn’t threaten anything. To threaten to win 72 games, to me you have to be within 5 games. Under your formulation, every year a team threatens to win 72 games.
by Basketball Smurf on Dec 24, 2011 6:55 PM CST up reply actions
Gonna have some nice fights for the individual prizes
MVP should be a good fight. They picked LBJ, Durant and CP3. I think it will be between KD, CP3 and Howard (if he plays hard). I can’t see Rose winning it again.
COY will be a tough one too. I think Vogel will get that one
I kind of hope Rose isn't in the running, because that should mean
that Boozer and Noah aren’t injured as much, and that Hamilton and Deng are contributing, and that Rose doesn’t have to do everything on offense. It could well be, though, that Rose becomes a much more efficient player and that lots of statheads are pointing out how much better he was this season than last. And if the Bulls again have the best record in the league, someone is bound to mention Rose for MVP again. So ideally I would like to see Hollinger calling for Rose to be MVP but someone like Paul getting it instead for sentimental reasons.
In Paul's defense
He probably should have won his in 2008, but the NBA had to make up for giving Nash one too many and Kobe not enough to Paul’s expense.
"truTV is like BET for white folks." - Chuck
"Brian Dawkins is always 100% Eagles related."--macjack09 & BGN Nation
With 90% of these ESPN reporters picking against the Bulls
I feel better than ever about their chances…Keep it up ESPN.
Get ready for that 7th banner Chicago...it's '90-'91 all over again!
please fuel drose's ascension even more, espn
all the slights are only proving to make this kid work harder. i love it.
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