How many games will the Bulls win this year?
by Tim S. on Dec 23, 2011 10:37 AM CST
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In this article Nick Friedell tries to predict all the wins and losses, and forecasts a 49-17 record, which is equivalent to 61 wins in an 82 game schedule. I know the Bulls have to lose some games, but there are no games on the schedule where they are obvious underdogs, except perhaps when they visit Miami (twice) and Oklahoma City (once). The shortened schedule means more games against the dogs in the East and more benefit from a young, deep roster that knows each other and their coach. Plus, everyone's healthy, Rose is still improving, and Hamilton is better than Bogans. Also, Miami will be better this year, and will push the Bulls to strive for home court advantage in the playoffs. My expectations are high. I'm confident that they will better last year's winning percentage by winning 51 games or more.
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I can't help it, my expectations are sky-high.
I’m going to boldly predict a 53-13 record, equivalent to 66 wins in an 82-game schedule.
I probably should have shaved at least a couple of games off that record due to fatigue,
but what can I say, the season is about to start and I’m riding high.
the fatigue factor affects other teams too
So i’d say your pick is pretty close, I went with 55.
53 wins is about equal to winning 8 out of 10, which is very possible.
46-20 or 44-22 would be very good records. as a homer i say 52-14.
in condensed seasons weird things happen. the playing field evens out a bit more. i was reading an article that said it fairly succinctly, basically talking about how in the 98-99 lockout the sonics went from a 60-win team to missing the playoffs altogether.
now, a 75 lb overweight monstrosity-of-an-athlete (formerly known as shawn kemp) won’t happen to the bulls, but murphy’s law is always the elephant in the room.
by grabmesomeBOOZ on Dec 23, 2011 11:27 AM CST reply actions
I probably should have given more options
at the lower end of the poll. Still, the 1998-99 season was shorter than this one, and the players were not as prepared for a shortened season.
also there were more schmucks in the league back then. the nba is a lot more professional now, so i expect the overall conditioning to be better this time around.
"We would look at each other with a glint of recognition and one of us would say, 'So you worry about ASIK, too,' as if admitting a secret vice. Then we would share our crazy ideas-- because all ideas about ASIK that are not immediately wrong turn out to be crazy."
yes i did. i picked 46-20 or worse.
there’s just no telling what can happen with so many games squeezed so close together
by grabmesomeBOOZ on Dec 23, 2011 7:17 PM CST up reply actions
As I recall...
The Bulls went from a 62 win team to winning only 13. Different circumstance.
New signature coming...but its a process.
by Dionysus2.0 on Dec 23, 2011 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Thank you.
I’m relieved that I got the math right. I was a little worried I would do all that work and someone would point out a fundamental flaw.
The most important factors
in this condensed season are depth, youth, and continuity; all of which favor the Bulls. It seems like the Bulls, Miami, OKC and a drop off to the rest of the league, but a couple of teams will emerge. That said, with the uncertainty of the back-to-back-to-back schedule I say 50-16.
by El Toro de Goro on Dec 23, 2011 11:59 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I like Memphis, too.
Thats my final four:
OKC vs. Memphis
Chicago vs. Miami
New signature coming...but its a process.
by Dionysus2.0 on Dec 23, 2011 12:32 PM CST up reply actions
I can't believe
Zach Randolph can put together back-to-back good seasons, espceially now that he’s got a new contract.
by El Toro de Goro on Dec 23, 2011 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
I'm skeptical about Marc Gasol, too.
I think he played above his head in the playoffs, and he has a new contract, too.
I think someone is playing around.
Somehow I doubt that 57% of us really believe the Bulls will win 57 or more games.
I picked 46
That’s probably light, but more indicative of how I feel the entire league will do with that crazy schedule. I think the best record in the league will be right around 50. Could be the Bulls
Recovering...
by Juiceboxjerry on Dec 23, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
I picked 48
I don’t really see any team in the East that scares me besides the heat. The pacers are the only team who could give us trouble in our divison so Im confident we win at least 48.
I'm going with a conservative 49-17.
I think 52-14 is possible, though
I believe the bulls will win no less than 7 games
and no more than 82
"Sportsmanship is just loser talk for losing."
WTF?
Why there no 66-0 option?!
"Violence is not always the answer."
"Violence is the question, and the answers always YES!"
What are you talking about??
82-0 is Championship
Should've traded for Melo.
by sin on Dec 23, 2011 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I dont think they will be as good in the regular season as last year.
I expect a 4 game drop off, down to 58 wins in a normal season. They figured out how hard and tiring it was in the playoffs so I expect not as much do or die attitude in the regular season.
As if Thibs would allow them to let up
If they lose more games, I guarantee it won’t because they aren’t going all out
All indications are that they will be WAY better this year
Rip and Healthy Noah, Boozer, plaus another year under Thibs coaching. I’ll be shocked if the Bulls don’t race for the #1 seed, which I feel is very important in the conference and NBA finals
I picked 55-11 because nobody else would.
The schedule being what it is the Bulls will probably suffer a few more ‘upsets’ than would be normal. I’d say 50-16’ish is most likely.
Get ready for that 7th banner Chicago...it's '90-'91 all over again!
I picked 54 and thought I was more optimistic than most, like usual
Then I saw that 58 people chose 57 wins or better.
According to Bill Simmons, Vegas has
the Bulls at 47.5 wins and Miami at 50.5 wins. However, Simmons himself advises betting the over for the Bulls and the under for Miami.
I’m not taking the people who choose 57 wins or better seriously. If you look at the curve and ignore the outliers, it seems like the middle is 49-17, which is exactly what Nick Friedell predicted, and just under last year’s winning percentage.
A lot depends on health, but so far the Bulls are certainly healthier than last year. The problem is that every single team, without exception, experiences health issues at some point during the year. Last year the Spurs were the healthiest team well into the second half of the season and were threatening the all time record — then they had issues and it all fell apart. So waiting for someone important to get injured is like waiting for the other shoe to drop. It will happen when we least expect it.
Here are more predictions
From pinnaclesports.com, Schaller Total Performance Ratings, and John Hollinger of ESPN. They put the Bulls at between 46 and 48 wins and Miami at between 50 and 53 wins. I don’t know, I just don’t see Miami as that much better than the Bulls over the course of a long season (playoffs may be a different matter). In fact, the Bulls seem deeper and better suited for an intense regular season like this one. But we’ll see. Note that in the West the consensus pick is OKC.
EAST__Pinnacle__Hollinger__TPR
MIA_____50.5______52______53
CHI_____47.5______48______46
BOS_____39.5______43______40
ORL_____38.5______40______37
NY______41.5______35______36.5
PHI_____38.5______37______36
IND_____36.5______36______35
ATL_____34.5______33______34.5
MIL_____30.5______34______30
NJ______21.5______28______27
TOR_____15.5______19______22
WAS_____19.5______22______21
DET_____20.5______22______19.5
CLE_____16.5______18______18.5
CHA_____15.5______13______18
WEST__Pinnacle__Hollinger__TPR
OKC_____48.5______45______46
LAC_____38.5______41______42
SA______40.5______42______40.5
LAL_____41.5______40______39
DEN_____34.5______43______38
DAL_____44.5______39______37.5
MEM_____40.5______37______36
HOU_____32.5______32______35
POR_____35.5______38______35
GS______25.5______26______30.5
PHO_____31.5______24______30
UTA_____24.5______27______29.5
MIN_____22.5______29______28.5
SAC_____15.5______25______25
NO______25.5______22______22.5
Oh, and in case you are wondering,
Hollinger’s projections were more accurate than anyone else’s last year. Of course his projections for the Bulls and the Bucks were off (he had the Bucks winning the division), but apparently his mistakes were not as bad as everyone else’s — and as I recall, we didn’t do a very good job of predicting the Bulls’ record last year.
"We" didn't do a good job?
I predicted 60 wins
And you were very proud of it, too, because no one else predicted that many.
The consensus was much lower, and even you were low by a couple of games.
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