What percentage of your shots should 3pt shots

I had a discussion with a few friends, and we talked about, what percentage of a teams' shots should be 3pt shots. A friend of mine said 50%, I thought that was the dumbest statement I ever heard. He said that equals champoinship. The consensus of the group was between 15-20%, what does everybody else think?

over 1 year ago QUINTEN DALEY 23 comments 1 recs |

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15-20%?

I don’t think we can determine this figure yet, until we see the Bulls in action showing off their player roles. Just because Korver, Brewer, and Boozer played this way with the Jazz doesn’t mean they’ll be mirror images with the Bulls.
We definitely don’t have a 3pt minded offense. We have Korver, but he’s an off the bench player and Rose shouldn’t be taking so many 3s since he should be more of a playmaker. Deng has definitely improved his 3, but I think a SF should be more of a slasher. I’ve only watched Watson a couple times, but I’m pretty sure he’s good at 3’s.

I think we are a slashing/paint minded offense. We have Bogans?, Brewer, Deng, Johnson, and Rose to slash. We have Boozer and Noah in the post.

We have a mid-range game with Boozer, Deng, Gibson, Korver, Rose, and Thomas.

I think our biggest offensive weakness is 3-pt shooting. It’s obvious. We are missing the Ray Allen or Ben Gordon to have a complete offense. From my observation of the Bulls pre-season, I think our 3pt shot selection % will be 15-20% However, I know this will change.

Remember last season? It took millions of games for the Bulls to have a set in stone lineup. However, we had a rookie coach, Del Negro, but now we have an experienced assistant coach that’ll hopefully also be good as a head coach. I think he’ll be fine with this transition because I’m sure he’s taken over as the head coach many times when the head coach was ejected and he’s pretty much the head coaches’ bitch.

by benny the bull on Aug 30, 2010 1:09 PM CDT reply actions

we need another 3pt shooting threat

Korver is our only true 3pt shooter. Opponents will able to have plenty of time to think and counter anything Korver does when he comes off the bench for his use of 3’s.

Again, I see this as the only weakness of our offense.

by benny the bull on Aug 30, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Bogans can shoot the 3...

And I think Lu will be shooting more this season…

Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.

by Dionysus2.0 on Aug 30, 2010 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Gibson is another post threat.

Boozer has stolen all the PF attention that i keep forgetting Gibson even exists!

by benny the bull on Aug 30, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Shouldn't this be a fanpost?

And I think that’s kind of an absurd question. It depends on the makeup of the team.

Unless you were talking about the Bulls specifically?

by tuff-gong on Aug 30, 2010 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I say 0%.

100% of your shots should be dunks.

by arjoseph on Aug 30, 2010 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs

Unless Luol Deng's on the other team.

Pat Riley is the devil.

by Poloplaya14 on Aug 30, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Obviously.

by arjoseph on Aug 30, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Given the dearth of 3 Pt shooters on the team and what pct teams shot at last year, 15-20% sounds right

Team ▴  	3PA/FGA	Off Rank
ORL	35.05%	4
NYK	31.20%	16
IND	27.79%	26
HOU	26.55%	17
PHO	26.08%	1
MIL	25.91%	23
CLE	24.75%	6
GSW	23.78%	14
SAS	23.23%	9
NOH	22.98%	18
BOS	22.77%	15
LAL	22.72%	11
DEN	22.72%	3
AVE	22.19%	
DAL	22.16%	10
LAC	22.07%	28
MIA	21.88%	19
POR	21.51%	7
ATL	21.39%	2
CHA	21.11%	24
TOR	21.07%	5
PHI	20.59%	20
SAC	20.06%	22
OKC	18.54%	13
UTA	18.36%	8
WAS	18.28%	25
NJN	18.08%	30
DET	18.02%	21
MIN	17.06%	29
CHI	15.62%	27
MEM	14.84%	12

Doesn’t appear, though, that there’s any relation between % of shots taken from behind the arc and offensive efficiency

Well, isn't what LeBron did last night the living embodiment of The Secret, leaving millions on the table and turning himself into a hometown villain, all for the sake of winning?
Neil Paine, basketball-reference.com

by snley on Aug 30, 2010 1:45 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs

Good stats...

The two best teams (LAL/BOS) shot just a little over the league average of 22.19%…and only a couple of good teams (OKC, UTA) shot less than 20% of their shots from there…

I would say at least 20% of a team’s shots should be from 3 point range.

Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.

by Dionysus2.0 on Aug 30, 2010 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions

[MEM]

Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!

by Prevenge on Sep 1, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

youre friends with don nelson??

from now on instead of saying "go fuck yourself" im gunna just say "go join the heat"

by sin on Aug 30, 2010 3:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Heyoooo

eat. sleep. hoop. repeat. become legendary.

by Sir Buckets on Aug 30, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

HE SAID THAT = CHAMPIOMCHIP?!?!?!

SWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Uncle Stanley McGoober on Aug 30, 2010 3:29 PM CDT reply actions

shouldnt it depend on your personnel? 15% seems low though.

"If I was to answer that question honestly, I would have to lie to you."

- Isiah Thomas, when asked if any teams were interested in trading for Shandon Anderson

by TheMoon on Aug 30, 2010 4:25 PM CDT reply actions

Actually

Now that I think of it, I think our offense is VERY solid. Nowadays, the most successful teams are full of slashing to attract fouls and for And 1’s. Players are much more aggressive than before and it’s the easy way to get a 3pts rather than the low % 3pt shot.

Sure, if we got a sharpshooter SG, the Bulls would be championship contendors, but it’s not a must.

The Magic couldn’t win a championship because their only slashing/paint threats were Turkgolu and Howard. Last season, they had Nelson, Carter, and Howard. They relied more on lower % jumpshots to finish games rather than high % slashing. I believe this was their biggest weakness.

Even though they have one of the best Centers in the NBA, a Center shouldn’t be the go to guy to finish games. They signed Carter, but he’s much out of his prime to be like Kobe.

by benny the bull on Aug 30, 2010 4:25 PM CDT reply actions

Here's a thought

Think about this. The league eFG% average from specific floor spots are:

Rim   Close Mid   Long  3pt
61.0  44.1  39.8  39.6  53.2

So this means that 100 shots from at the rim would net 122 pts or 100 shots from 3pt would net 106.4 pts. Hoopdata has a stat called XeFG%. Basically, this gives the expected eFG% if you shot exactly the league average from all spots on the floor. It is basically a measure of shot selection since it will reward teams that shoot a ton of threes and shots at the rim. Teams that force up a ton of threes or contested shots at the rim will shoot a worse eFG% in reality, but this is a good measure of shot selection. Here are teams ordered by XeFG% (good shot selection) and then their overall team offensive rank.


Team/ORank
CHA 24
ORL 2
HOU 18
NYK 15
UTH 8
DEN 5
CLE 4
LAC 27
MEM 17
BOS 13
PHO 1
SAS 9
NOR 16
NJN 20
SAC 22
IND 26
LAL 11
OKC 12
PHI 20
ATL 3
TOR 6
DET 21
GSW 14
MIL 23
MIN 29
CHI 28
DAL 10
POR 7
MIA 19
WAS 25

Again, there seems to be very little correlation. Charlotte sure plays the right way, but they simply don’t have the offensive players to back up their play. That said, aside from ATL, TOR, and POR, most good offensive teams are playing the right way. But overall, you still need personnel to back up play.

"Mental toughness is to physical as four is to one." - Bob Knight

by DRose01 on Aug 30, 2010 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs

I was just curious if you knew if people kept track of such things...

but do you know if there is an opp eFG% stat based on shot type. Essentially, I am wondering if a certain type of shot may make your defense less efficient due to the situation you find yourself in after they rebound the ball…

by Basketball on Aug 30, 2010 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Hmmm

That’s a trickier one! You could just check that on your own a bit. Go to hoopdata and see which teams take the most threes or most shots at the rim and compare it to how many fast break buckets they give up. That would be a tough thing to do, but it is possible. Not sure how well fast break stats are tracked.

"Mental toughness is to physical as four is to one." - Bob Knight

by DRose01 on Aug 31, 2010 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions