Closer Look at Tracy McGrady

TMac put up a career low 12.2 PER last year. Since 2002, his PERs have gone steadily downhill: 30.3, 25.3, 22.9, 21.9, 23.2, 18.4, 16.3, 12.2. To put that in context, Derrick Rose had 18.6 last year, so mostly what that’s saying is that TMac used to be really damn good. For further context, that career low 12.2 was better than Hinrich and Murray got with the Bulls last year, and not much below what Salmons got for Chicago. If you think that last year was rock bottom for McGrady, and he can bounce back to where he was the year before, then of course you go get him. That 16.3 is better than what Deng had last year or what Brewer had in 08/09. If you think his body is just going to continue to break down, then it depends on what the cost is. The good news is at this point, the Bulls don’t have enough space to offer an albatross contract, so I’d be happy with whatever they give him.

As for more detailed stats, TMac’s biggest strength is his ability to create, both for himself and for others. His Ast% last year was 22.6%, and his usage was 20.6, both significant drops from the previous year. So he passes like a point guard and takes roughly as many shots as Deng. His TS% of 46.6 last year would hurt, though. He rebounds well for a guard, and puts up reasonable steal/block numbers. So if you assume some bounce back from last year, he seems like he would be a valuable asset, especially if he was on the floor whenever Rose was on the bench. I think he could really flourish in the role of leading the second unit.

T-Mac should either be ring chasing or trying to find a team where he can showcase himself. I don’t see how signing with a deep rostered team that’s optimistically a few years away from contention fits his needs. I simply find it hard to believe he will truly emotionally accept the 10th, 11th spot here. He may say all the right things in interviews with our front office, but reality may be far different.

I don’t blame him for trying to get every last ounce out of his career. A vet minimum salary is more money than the average fan will earn in 20+ years, and he’s likely to command a little more. I just don’t see how he fits with the Bulls this year.

3 things about McGrady:

1. He was only a problem in Houston when he felt like he wasn’t getting a chance to play. He’d been working his ass off with Tim Grover for months after microfracture surgery, so his intense desire to play is hardly a negative. And he’s continued to work out with Grover this summer.

2. Who knows what happened in NY last year. While D’Antoni has a great rep as a players’ coach, he sure has problems with his players. Not just McGrady, but Chris Duhon, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, etc.

3. With that out of the way, look at what the guy has done. 7 all-star games, 8 yrs of scoting 20+ points. Even w/ the Knicks last year, he scored 20+ in 3 of his first 7 games. Drives, shoots the 3, gets to the line. Does Ronnie Brewer do any of that? In short, if McGrady’s anything more than he was last year, he’s exactly what the Bulls need.

So that’s the issue: can McGrady perform at a higher level than last year, closer to his career per minute averages? Tim Grover thinks so. At $3 million or less, the Bulls would be crazy not to take the chance.

Couple reasons why I think this is a horrible signing.

1) T-Mac hasn’t always been a team first guy. He complained about playing time in Houston and I honestly don’t see a scenario where he’s going to get much more here. The Bulls have placed a lot of great role players around their core nucleus. It doesn’t make sense to add a guy who has never been a role player to act as one and potentially disrupt chemistry.

2) T-Mac never learned where his shot was. Even during his glory years, he was a guy who would force up 3-pointers. He’s a below average 3-point shooter yet is adamant about taking them.

3) For a team that is built around tough defense and has hired a coach with that mindset, T-Mac is the opposite. He doesn’t have the speed or quickness to run the court or hang with most 2’s and 3’s in the league. He’s also never been a good team defender that worked in a system (just ask Houston).

I just see the move as high risk, low reward. What is the upside here? He turns into a guy who can give you 15 minutes a night off the bench? Maybe hit a couple shots, make a few passes, yet still get abused on defense? He’s always been a good playmaker and his passing ability would be nice when Derrick is on the bench. If he’s willing to take that role, I guess I’m fine with it. But I just don’t see how a player who was as esteemed as he was will take that role without some complaining.

The risk of course is that he turns into a cancer on and off the court. A guy who has lost his shooting touch and ability to create open looks forcing up bad shots in an effort to “get his”. A guy who will complain when he’s not on the court as much as defensive minded players like Brewer. If guys like Korver and Watson excel off the bench, will he really take a backseat and become a garbage time player? I feel like Thibs will feel required to give T-Mac his minutes.

I felt we needed a sparkplug off the bench and thought we got it with CJ Watson. I guess I don’t see what the reward the Bulls see here in comparision to the potential risk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKggO62YPs4