Guard stat musings

by ImLittleJon on Jul 23, 2010 2:10 PM CDT

As the Bulls signed guards (shading over into small forwards) this offseason, I went and looked up some key stats that I was interested in and compared them with Bulls players from last year. My musings based on those stat comparisons follow after the jump. (Stats are for last year unless otherwise noted. For players that were traded mid-season, the stats are for only the portion of the year that they were on the Bulls)

Ronnie Brewer is a very different player from anyone else in my comparisons. His jumpshot percentage is way lower, at about 48%. The next lowest are Rose and Deng, with 68% and 69%. Brewer's close percentage is higher, at around 35%. Again, Rose and Deng are closest, with 30% and 26%. Brewer's dunk percentage is off the charts, at 17%. Nobody else is above 3%. Not surprisingly, his foul drawing percentage is also highest, although it dropped from 18.1% in 08 to 13.2% in 09. Deng and Redick were closest at about 12.7%. So what that tells me is the guy is super athletic, and he probably gets a ton of his points in transition or on backdoor cuts. Brewer's eFG% on jumpshots dropped from 38.8% in 08 to 33.8% in 09. Even the 38.8% number would be the lowest on the list. Closest comparisons are Murray at 39.9% and Deng at 42.4%. So Brewer is next to useless in terms of spreading the floor. That is backed up by his 25.8% on 0.6 3PA/36. Other than Rose's 26.7%, everyone else is over 30% on treys. And other than Rose (0.8), Deng (1.1), and Watson (2.9), everyone else takes over 4 3PA/36. Overall, Brewer's PER dropped from 16.1 in 08 to 12.5 in 09, which moves him from second (behind only Rose) to almost last (only ahead of Hinrich and Murray). So we all need to hope that 09 was an aberration, not a trend. His usage dropped from 18.8 (behind only Rose and Deng) to 13.9 (last by a lot). His TS% dropped from 56.5 (behind only Korver and Redick) to 52.4 (ahead of only Murray and Hinrich). His Ast% and A/TO did increase, though. His best Ast%, however, is still only ahead of Deng, Salmons, and Murray, though his best A/TO ties Hinrich for the lead. So he's an adequate ballhandler at best, but he lives within his limitations and doesn't force much. His Stl% of 2.7% is a hair behind Watson and quite a ways ahead of third place Salmons, at 2.0%.

Kyle Korver, I think we all know exactly what he is - a one dimensional spot-up shooter. Pretty much the opposite of Brewer in every respect. 92% of his shots are jumpshots. Hinrich and Redick are closest at 86% and 84%. Korver's eFG% on jumpshots was 60.1%, again first by a significant margin, and again followed by Redick (52.7%) and Hinrich (47.7%). He was assisted on 94% of his jumpshots, so he's purely a catch-and-shoot guy. Korver's 3P% of 53.6% speaks for itself. Surprisingly, his 3PA/36 of 4.2 was behind Redick (5.5) and Murray (4.8), and about the same as Salmons and Hinrich. Korver only drew fouls on 4.1% of his shots. Only Hinrich's 5.3% was close. His Ast% of 13.9% puts him in company with Watson and Redick, so for a SF/SG, he passes quite well. His A/TO of 2.1 is just a touch above Salmons and Murray; normally, I would expect a pure shooter to have fewer TO. His PER was 13.9, above Hinrich, Murray, and the 09 version of Brewer, and basically tied with Watson. His usage was 16.2, which is on the low side, and his TS% was 62%, which is amazing.

C.J. Watson, I'm pretty excited about. I just wish he were tall enough to play alongside Rose. However, playing for Golden State could be skewing all of his statistics. Watson is middle of the road on shot profile, with 77% jump shots and 22% close. His eFG% on jumpshots was 45.8, just a little below Salmons, Rose, and Hinrich, but his eFG% on close shots was 69.2%, tops among the bunch. I'm not sure what that mean; maybe he makes a lot of layups? He was only assisted on 56% of his jumpshots. Rose's 30% was lower, but almost everyone else was in the high 60's. So Watson is definitely capable of creating for himself. His foul drawing percentage of 11.7% was just above Rose and Salmons and just below Redick and Deng. Watson's PER of 13.8 was about the same as Korver's, as was his usage of 16. His TS% of 55.6 was behind only Korver, Redick, and Brewer vintage 08. His 3p% of 31% and 3PA/36 of 2.9 show that the long ball is part of his repertoire but not necessarily a strength. His Ast% of 14.3% is a little low for a PG, behind Rose's 30.3% and Hinrich's 20.5%. His A/TO of 2.6 is solid, though, so he takes care of the ball. His Stl% of 2.8% leads the group.

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Pretty informative stuff!Good post….

Is it me,or do the Packers really suck???

by I love football! on Jul 23, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions

Excellent material

Assuming that they will add one more SG/shooter, who would you like it to be? Let’s say the choices include McGrady, Fernandez, and Brown – would one of them in particular – or perhaps someone else in particular – really serve well to round out our current group?

by thelivingant on Jul 23, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions

With TMac, the issue is age/health. With one exception, his PER has decreased every year since 02. If I had to guess, I’d say he would improve on last year, but I don’t know if he can get back even to the year before last. Still, last year, his PER was better than Hinrich and Murray, and almost as good as Salmons and Brewer. And there’s a possibility of him being significantly better than any of them. His strengths are the ability to create for himself and his teammates, so I’m in the camp that says he is best used when Rose is not on the court. But I certainly think he would be an asset, if he’s willing to accept the money and role that are available for him in Chicago.

Rudy’s big think is the long ball. He takes roughly twice as many shots from behind the arc as from within it. His 3PA/36 of 6.6 blows away even Redick’s 5.5. And he put up even more his rookie year. Most of the other metrics, he’s pretty middle of the road. So he’s got a skill that we need, and he’s not terrible outside of that skill, so he would also be a worthwhile asset.

I don’t see anything in Brown’s numbers that jumps out at me. Pretty much meh across the board.

by ImLittleJon on Jul 23, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks for the insight.

A TMac signing would not be boring, that’s for sure.

by thelivingant on Jul 23, 2010 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

I think we can throw out Brewer's stats from last season.

He only played 5 games, he was with a new team, and almost his entire season was derailed by a leg injury. Overall, your conclusions jive with mine and what I think is his public MO: athletic, plays within himself, not a shooter, great finisher, awesome in transition. Watching YouTube clips, it also seemed like in the half-court he was stationed along the baseline, ready to receive passes from either the pick man or the roll man once the defense collapsed into the lane (which is why so many of his shots are near the basket).

by arjoseph on Jul 23, 2010 4:27 PM CDT reply actions

Brewer played 53 games before being traded last season

His numbers do look slightly better if we throw out the 5 games with Memphis, and I probably should have done that, but it’s not a huge difference. I tried to find some evidence of him fighting through nagging injuries last year, but I couldn’t find a reference to anything before he got traded.

by ImLittleJon on Jul 23, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions