DRose at 21 vs. DWade at 22

Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade play similar styles. They are slashing guards with elite athleticism with limited range on their jumpers. The similarities go beyond that, though. I decided to take a look at Derrick's second season, when he was only 21 years old, with Dwyane's rookie year, when he was 22 years old. It's the closest age comparison we can make between them at the NBA level, so I figure it's worth making.


Team Success

Wade's Miami Heat won 42 games (good for a 4 seed in the terrible East that year) and made a nice run into the second round of the playoffs by knocking off the New Orleans Hornets in the first round. Wade's Heat also had a very good top 5 players outside of Wade:

1. Lamar Odom (24 years old, .134 WS/48, where .100 is average)

2. Eddie Jones (32 years old, .146 WS/48)

3. Udonis Haslem (23 y/o, .128 WS/48)

4. Rafer Alston (27 y/o, .110 WS/48)

5. Brian Grant (31 y/o, .101 WS/48)

They also had Rasual Butler who played well but in limited minutes and Caron Butler who played like crap.

The Bulls, in contrast, won 41 games (good for 8th in a much improved East, relative to the crummy 03-04 version of the Conference). The Bulls were beaten pretty soundly in the first round, but the 09-10 Cavs were obviously a much different monster than the 03-04 Hornets. The Bulls top 5 outside of Derrick looks like this:

1. Joakim Noah (24 y/o, .154 WS/48)

2. Luol Deng (24 y/o, .106 WS/48)

3. Taj Gibson (80 24 y/o, .103 WS/48)

4. Brad Miller (33 y/o, .098 WS/48)

5. John Salmons (30 y/o, .092 WS/48)

It looks like Dwyane had the better supporting cast, which, combined with the weaker East, would explain the additional team success that Wade enjoyed.

Statistical Comparison - Per 36 minutes


Rk         Player  Season Age  G GS   MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
1 Derrick Rose 2009-10 21 78 78 2871 8.4 17.2 .489 0.2 0.8 .267 3.2 4.2 .766 0.8 2.9 3.7 5.9 0.7 0.3 2.7 1.2 20.3
2 Dwyane Wade 2003-04 22 61 56 2126 6.3 13.5 .465 0.3 0.9 .302 3.9 5.3 .747 1.4 2.7 4.2 4.7 1.5 0.6 3.3 2.4 16.8


Statistical Comparison - Advanced Stats

Rk         Player  Season Age  G   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS  WS WS/48
1 Derrick Rose 2009-10 21 78 2871 18.6 .532 .495 2.6 8.7 5.7 30.3 1.0 0.7 12.5 27.2 106 109 3.5 2.5 6.0 0.100
2 Dwyane Wade 2003-04 22 61 2126 17.6 .530 .475 4.6 9.0 6.8 25.1 2.2 1.3 17.3 25.0 101 102 2.2 2.3 4.6 0.103

Statistical Comparison - Raw +/- (via


                     On             Off                Net

Minutes:    2130          1813             54%

Offense:    105.5         103.5           +2.0

Defense:   103.0         104.4            -1.4

Net:              +2.5           +0.9             +3.4


                       On            Off                 Net

Minutes:      2870         1110              72%

Offense:      106.1         101.5           +4.6

Defense:     106.2         106.7            -0.5

Net:               -0.1             -5.2              +5.1


I think there's a lot of evidence there that Derrick is a better player at 21 than Dwyane Wade was at 22. I'm not going to parse this stuff too much, because frankly, I don't have the time and there are plenty of you on here that are capable of reading into this stuff. I would like to point out that Derrick posted a greater ORtg with a greater USG% than Wade did. Derrick also posted a greater PER and his WS/48 was less but only because of Wade's superior DRtg which is highly team dependent. There's no telling whether Derrick can make the same sort of astronomical leap that Wade made from year 1 to year 2 and then again to year 3, but no one doubts his work ethic and willingness to learn. If Derrick can get it done, the Bulls become scary for the rest of the league and our lives as Bulls fans become a lot more exciting.


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