DRose at 21 vs. DWade at 22

Derrick’s defensive box score stats could use a lot of improvement, as could his fundamentals.

He does seem to have the drive, he drastically improved his mid-range shooting from one year to the next, and hopefully the 3-point shooting is for next year. I can’t imagine FTAs not improving, it doesn’t make sense with his mindset and athleticism.

We were on the verge of becoming real good. And LeBron went to the only team who would really reduce our chances. Any other team and we would be contending. And now here I stand seeing some kind of hope that maybe, just maybe, we can actually somehow beat them… but most of the times I just remember I thought we could beat CLE last year and we couldn’t

I think it’s unreasonable to expect rose to ever become the type of defender that excels at keeping his man in front of him at all times. I expect him to get better in that regard but the bigger thing is that I want him to be more of an aggressive ballhawk out on the perimeter. With our help D, he should be able to gamble a lot more (like rondo does) and get more fastbreak opportunities.

One huge point from my perspective is this: Wade put up a better 3pt percentage, got to the FT line more on less FGA (Wade’s FTA/FGA ratio was .39 where Rose’s was .24, a HUGE difference), and all of these things should clearly lead to Wade being the more effective and efficient scored. However, Rose posted the higher TS% and eFG%. That speaks volumes about Rose’s jump shot and finishing ability. To me, this also says if Rose improves a bit on the 3pt shooting and getting to the line, he could very well become a more effective scorer than Wade. That could make things very interesting in the East.

I think there’s a huge difference in comparing a player’s rookie season to ANY other year in a players’ development. While many talk of the “third year leap”, with players who are expected to be stars and get tons of minutes in their first year, a second year leap is just as important.

To wit, comparing improvements from 1st season to 2nd season, using percent increase in per36 stats and other categories:
These are the percent increases/decreases from year 1 to year 2. Reminder: not all percent changes are equal, but across the two players, they’re obviously comparable.

    pts   rebs   assts   stls   blks   pf    tos    FG%   3pt%   PER   TS%   eFG%  fta/fga   usg%   ast%   to%

Wa  33.3  14.1    34     0      66.7  16.7   18.1   2.8  (4.3)   31    5.8   1.7   46.7      23.6   23.5  (5.8)

Ro  24.5  (2.6)  (3.7)  (12.5)  50    (20)   12.5   2.9   20.2   16.3  3.1   2.7   17.3      20.4   5.1   (6.0)

(no brackets = positive change; brackets = negative (negative is good for pf, to, to%)

I think this is a really interesting look at the players. I think this shows that Wade is the “better” player after two years. However, to explain how Rose didn’t improve as much in some areas (and even regressed in a few), one would have to believe at least one of the following: a) Rose just isn’t as good, b) Rose had an outside force holding him back (coach, system, etc.) c) younger players shouldn’t improve as much as older players.

c) should be dismissed off the bat, in my opinion. I think another year would help determine whether it’s a) or b). See, though, Del Negro really may have stunted Rose’s development.

Wade had more time in collge…that seasoning had him better prepared for the NBA grill.

It takes time for pg’s to develop in nba.. D.Rose is on pace to be a better pg then wade would ever have if he ran the point. wade is a sg Thats why they moved him to sg. Think about it. Rose is gonna be best pg in nba for 3 out of the next 5 years.

just for easiness sake / not making more work for me, I am once again only counting time at PG.
ie in his rookie year, Chris Paul played SG a large bit too… but does anyone think he’s a SG?
I’m counting his minutes at PG, and I’m only counting anyone’s minutes at PG.
also, are stats are by 48 minutes (that doesn’t really effect PER though, but,
fucking 82games. let me see REAL stats by position played, damn it.)

For, uh, coolness’? goodness’? accuracy’s? sake, I’m only going to do comparisons to:
Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams.
I wanted to do Chauncey Billups, but 82games didn’t have anything before 02-03 (am I missing something?)
I also wanted to do historical players, but, um, that worked out for the same reason(s).

Chris Paul
Year – PER – PER allowed / opposing PER – net PER – net PER growth %
rookie 22.8 17.6 5.2 -
2nd 23.8 16.5 7.3 40%
3rd 31.7 18.5 13.2 80%
4th 33.5 17.2 16.3 23%
5th/this 26.5 19.2 7.3 -63% (!)

Rajon Rondo
Year – PER – PER allowed / opposing PER – net PER – net PER growth %
rookie 13.9 17.0 -3.1 (!) -
2nd 17.7 17.6 +.1 er, infinity? -
3rd 21.0 16.5 +4.5 440% (! lol)
4th/this 21.8 17.5 +4.3 -4.5%

Deron Williams
Year – PER – PER allowed / opposing PER – net PER – net PER growth %
rookie 14.2 17.3 -3.2 (!) -
2nd 18.5 15.9 +2.6 infinity / -
3rd 23.4 14.7 8.6 230%
4th 23.3 17.3 6.0 -30.3%
5th/this 23.0 15.0 8.0 33%

now, obviously, from this, we can accumulate very little, but we can assert:
1. point guards don’t grow off trees.
2. players will have better and worse years on defense even later in their years.
3. a player can have an MVP type year and totally not get an MVP award.
4. Chris Paul is awesome at passing.
5. Rajon Rondo got pretty good at offense and still really doesn’t play good defense, but is fast and takes chances. Roses are red, anyone?
6. % change is pretty stupid to look at once a player seems to have peaked, which appears to be… around the third year for these point guards!

admittably, all 3 are very young and perhaps haven’t peaked yet. Such is the problem with me not having access to positonal PER data for isiah thomas, gary payton, and john stockton.

But, let’s look at Drose real quick:
Derrick Rose
Year – PER – PER allowed / opposing PER – net PER – net PER growth %
Rookie 17.7 15.4 2.3 -
2nd/this 20.7 14.9 5.8 152%

seems like Rose could grow to be very good… it seems he widely isn’t getting enough credit from a lot of people already..

…seems like he could peak soon, too.

I’m optimistic, just. throwing stats out there.

fucking per.

I read the how-to table in the post and previewed and it mentioned nothing of the

 pre tag 

if that worked I’ll be pleased.

anyway, I guess my overall point is I don’t entirely agree with the “PGs develop slowly” assertion. 3 years to 30+ PER isn’t slow, imo.