My 15 minutes as GM

As a long time reader of this blog, but only recent poster, I wanted to take my shot at “The vision thing” for the Bulls and play GM or whatever title in the Bulls org actually makes decisions. 

First, I think a GM has to make some assumptions to base his decisions on, so here are mine:

1)      We aren’t winning a championship this year.  Sure,  the US won hockey gold in 1980 so nothing is impossible, but I have to base my decisions on probabilities not miracles. 

2)      Our next window of opportunity  (after the big 3 passing on us this off season) realistically begins in 2012 with a more seasoned  Rose and Noah.  

3)      Rose and Noah can form 2/3’s of a championship core with Noah being no better than the 3rd best with his limited offense.      Rose can be either 1 or 2 depending on his development. Let’s hope for number 1 since it’s a lot easier to find a Gasol  than a Kobe.    To be championship contenders, we still need to find the 3rd piece and he is unlikely on our roster now.   (Yes, I know Boozer is an allstar with the interior scoring we’ve always needed, but at 29, he’s going to be in decline during  my assumed championship window and his injury history does not bode well for him to be a central piece on a championship team in his 30’s)

4)      The New CBA will put tighter restrictions on the cap.  In what capacity, I don’t know.  Perhaps the MLE will be eliminated.  Perhaps the luxury tax will be made to $2 per every dollar over the limit and the limit reduced to the cap figure.   Perhaps there will just be a hard salary cap.  But something along these lines is going to happen even if  LeBron has to live on catfood for 6 months until a lockout or strike is settled.   In this event, and assuming we have Rose maxed out and Noah at minimum salary starting with 8 figures,  and any combination of Boozer/Deng still on the books,  we are essentially out of the tier 1 free agent game for at least the beginning of our championship window unless we strip down again, which is something I don’t see us doing since we will be competitive.  

5)      Our own draft choices for the foreseeable future, barring a serious injury to Rose is likely to be in the 20’s and we realistically can only hope for depth or trade assets here. 

6)      The only realistic way we are going to get a 3rd piece is through a trade.     On the positive,  it seems more and more stars or near stars have been traded in recent years.  

My strategy, based on these assumptions:

1)       Play a deep rotation and create trade assets.  This probably seems obvious, but it’s not.  As a rookie coach Thibs will be under tremendous pressure to win.  Probably anything short of 50 wins and 2nd round of the playoffs this year will be seen as a disappointment by the  fan base.  One of our few legitimate trade assets now is Taj (based on his performance vs. his contract).   Vinny was panned terribly for playing Taj early last year over Tyrus.   Will Thibs get a pass if he gives JJ  8 – 10 minutes a game even if it means risking some wins?    There will probably be some ugly moments from Asik as he adjusts to the NBA.   We should suffer through them.   We can shorten the rotation when the playoffs come.  

2)      Don’t  touch the Charlotte pick this year.   As far as I’m concerned, we’re playing with the house’s money from the Curry trade.   I know the pick is lottery protected with lowered protection for a few years.  I think Charlotte is a borderline playoff team this year  (a lot depends on the Knicks).  At worst, we get a mid round pick.  But if Charlotte sinks, and then really sinks again  (Think Tyrus all fat and happy with his new contract), that pick could be our last chance in a long time at a high lottery pick in a few years or a much more valuable trade piece.  

3)      Save some cap money this year and see what shakes loose at the trade deadline.  There will surely be some teams trying to get under the luxury tax line or closer to it.    It’s highly unlikely, we’ll nab a star, but maybe we’ll come away with another asset for a future trade for a star.    Maybe a team will be forced to throw in a draft choice depending on the quality of the player versu.   More assets the better. 

4)      Public relations campaign.   Pax and Reinsdorf need to use the media to their advantage and create the image of a team where players want to come.  The Bulls have suffered some horrible image problems since the dynasty break up.   Star players are not going to be simply traded.  They are only going to go someplace they want to go.     

5)      Time to grow up and move on from Michael.  Quit selling him.     John Wall wasn’t born until after the Bulls already won a championship and he was 7 when the Bulls their final championship.   Players aren’t going to come here because of the Bulls legacy.  They are going to come, money issues all being equal, because they think they can win.   Plus, Michael is the owner of another franchise.  If some player really idolizes Michael, would he rather play for the man or his statue?

6)      Evaluate Thibs as championship coach material.  I really hope he works out and he's the man to take us to the promised land.  But if not, we need to cut bait quickly.  I'd look at bringing back Scott Skiles.  If his Coaching arch holds to form, he should just about have worn out his welcome in Milwaulkee and would probably love to take over a contender.  

7)      Lastly, I give Joe Alexander  an end of the bench roster spot.  He has few skills worthy of an NBA player, but he fouls really hard, and I encourage  Thibs to play him a few minutes every time we face Miami.   He’ll be a fan favorite across the NBA. 

Sorry for length.