Why this Bulls team can't win until 2014
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 15, 2010 4:25 PM CDT
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PrintThere's a lot of talk around here about the Bulls adding an impact player to try to compete soon for a title. But we all know it just ain't gonna happen. And the main reason is Luol Deng's contract, which runs through 2014. No team wants to touch it. If the Bulls are going to win a title before 2014, Luol Deng will have to play like a perennial All-Star and transform his career trajectory to borderline Hall of Famer. This also just ain't gonna happen.
"Who says you need 2 superstars to win? Look at the 2004 Pistons," some might say. Time for a little history lesson.
27 of the last 30 NBA titles have been won by 8 guys -- Magic, Bird, Isiah, Jordan, Hakeem, Tim Duncan, Shaq, and Kobe. If you didn't have one of those guys on your team, you couldn't win 90% of the time. The only other 3 teams to win were the 76ers with Dr. J & Moses (who was the reigning 2-time MVP), the '04 Pistons, and the '08 Celtics with the Big 3. Nearly every one of the last 30 teams other than the '04 Pistons had 2 HOFers on the team. The '04 Pistons are the most extreme example of the exception to the rule. In some cases, teams had 2 or more HOFers and still didn't win (most notably the Jazz with Stockton & Malone and the Rockets with Hakeem, Barkley, and Pippen).
So if Rose makes The Leap and pushes himself into Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Dwyane Wade territory, then Deng has to go and the Bulls have to add a serious bona-fide All-Star / superstar type player to the roster in order to win a title. I did not make the rules. This is what must happen for this Bulls team to win.
Allow me to suggest the Bulls retain flexibility to acquire Danny Granger. His remaining contract is almost identical to Deng's, and they both run out in 2014. Since Granger's been stuck on crappy teams his whole career, nobody really knows what his ceiling is. But unlike Deng, Granger seems like a guy who could actually be the 2nd best player on a championship team. Perhaps he can become to Rose what Joe Dumars was to Isiah or what Worthy was to Magic. You have to imagine Granger will want to bolt the Pacers after 2014, and they have given no indication they are willing to trade him for anything reasonable....yet. So the Bulls should make their interest in Granger widely known, have Rose and Noah recruit Granger during the summers, acquire draft picks and attractive players that are signed to reasonable contracts for no longer than 2 or 3 years that the Bulls may be able to offer in a trade if Granger asks out, and keep cap flexibility open for the summer of 2014.
It's not the most appealing plan, but I don't want the Bulls doling out any more big contracts for guys who can't push the team over the top. For that, the Bulls must acquire a perennial All-Star. The last 30 years of NBA history show that is really the only way to build a team that can win titles.
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The Bulls can't win because of Deng. but Danny Granger is the answer?
If you’re truly a believer in the idea that only the very best players in the league win championship why the hell is your solution a guy that’s nothing more than a relatively minor upgrade over Luol Deng at best?
by Scotter on Jul 15, 2010 4:43 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs
Yes
Replace Granger with Melo and now we are talking.
by DRose01 on Jul 15, 2010 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is true
Replace Deng for Melo and the Bulls would in fact be great. I offered Granger because he appears to be the best player who will likely become available to the Bulls in the foreseeable future. If Melo leaves, he’s probably going to the Knicks or the Nets. All the other truly great players are locked up or unlikely to play here because they won’t be traded or because of redundancy (e.g. Chris Paul).
Granger is a huge upgrade over Deng. Their contracts are nearly identical. Ask the Pacers if they want Deng for Granger straight up. If Gar did that, I suspect Larry Bird would hang up within .02 seconds and never answer his calls again. If Deng played for the Pacers, he could never average 25 points a game.
However, if Granger is your best player, you’re team stinks. Now if he’s your 2nd best player, you’ve got something cooking. If Granger played for the Cavs last season, Lebron is a champion staying in Cleveland instead of a douche, Dan Gilbert is $100 million wealthier, and Granger is getting ready to become James Worthy.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 5:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No way dude
Granger is a surefire all-star and is a playmaker and scorer even with defenses loading up on him in Indiana. I think. Correct me if i’m wrong
by ChiTownSportsMaster on Jul 16, 2010 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
While I agree with your headline
Your story doesn’t support it. Hakeem didn’t have a second superstar for his first title. Nor did Duncan for his 2003 title. It looks like 1989 Detroit team had just one all-star, and the 1990 Detroit team didn’t have a single player with a PER over 17.3.
The two-star theory is simplistic. You need a good team to win, and it’s just that NBA salary rules are such that teams with two superstars have a huge advantage over teams that don’t. If Rose and Noah both become top 20 NBA players, with Deng/Boozer/Taj all holding up as above average players, it can be done. Improbable though.
It is almost impossible to predict who will win the Championship
1990 Detroit and to a certain extent the more recent Detroit winners are all examples of that. A team with solid players at all five starting spots and a good sixth man can definitely win a championship. A team of two or three star players certainly have an advantage, but the best teams have the best shot.
As for whether or not the Bulls can win a championship…that is going to be very dependent on the development of Rose. If he turns in to mini-LeBron, Bulls could definitely have enough to win it all. If he stays pretty much as what he is now, without some help they have little chance.
Your point is exactly right. Good teams win. Good teams are made in many different ways.
8 guys won 27 out of 30. It's not almost impossible to predict.
1989 Detroit had 3 HOFers in Isiah, Dumars and Dantley. 1990 Detroit had 2 HOFers in Isiah and Dumars (perhaps Rodman will join them). Isiah was one of the greatest point guards ever. His PER went up significantly in the playoffs. These Detroit teams were also the best defensive teams in the NBA. Multiple HOFers and one of the greatest players ever at his position. These teams fit within what I said above almost to a T. Good teams don’t win the title. Great teams do. Great teams are led by great players — HOF players 29 of the last 30 years. These are just the facts.
1994 Rockets had Hakeem in his prime, probably the best center in the league at the time. That team also had young Robert Horry and Sam Cassell both coming off the bench (both of who’s PER went up in the playoffs). Horry is most likely a HOFer, although not a traditional candidate. They were the 2nd best defensive team in the league next to the Knicks, who they barely beat in the finals in 7 games after falling behind 3-2. This team is one of the weaker champions in the last 30 years and probably only won because MJ was playing baseball. So if Lebron and Wade decide to play baseball sometime soon, maybe the Bulls will have a chance.
2003 Spurs were led by Duncan, the greatest player at his position ever. David Robinson was still on the team, although he had taken a back seat. Depending on how Tony Parker’s career ends, he will make a compelling case for the HOF. Basketball-Reference already has him at greater than 50% chance of making the Hall if he retired today.
I said “nearly every one of the last 30 teams had 2 HOFers.” Pointing out some marginal exceptions do not change the rule. NBA executives should be doing everything possible to get 2 HOF talents on the same team. It’s the most dependable way to a title.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 5:39 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're confusing your logic
Joe Dumars became a HOFer because he won two titles. He had a career 15.3 PER and had never been an all-star until Detroit’s 2nd title. He had never even been an all-star by 1989 and you’re saying he qualifies as a superstar. You can’t alter history to fit your argument. As for your argument that Dantley was their 2nd star, Dantley wasn’t a Piston for either title run, he was traded just before.
And having players like Horry/Cassell whose PERs go up in the playoffs, well no shit. If your team wins a title, people will have to play well. Horry and his 13.4 PER is a Hall of Famer, huh? Tony Parker was an average point guard on that 2003 team. How he developed afterwards has no relevance to that 2003 title.
Your logic is all over the map here, and your conclusion that “teams who have two superstars have an easier path to the title” is obvious. But you haven’t come close to proving the headline of your post.
by YaoPau on Jul 16, 2010 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Chicken or the egg
So is Joe Dumars a HOFer because he won 2 titles, or did the Pistons win 2 titles because Dumars was playing like a HOFer? PER is one stat created by Hollinger – it is not the end-all-be-all. The Pistons had to beat the Bulls to get out of the East, and Dumars played D on MJ better than just about anyone ever did. Anybody able to semi-control the greatest player ever with stifling defense while also being the 2nd most important overall player on a 2-time championship team will have a compelling case to be named a HOFer at the end of his career.
If the Lakers win the title this year, Ron Artest will have 2 rings. Will that make him a HOFer? No, but according to you, this is how Dumars became a HOFer. Why would it apply to Dumars but not Artest? Imagine if Ron Artest played the same D but was more important to the Lakers offensively than Pau Gasol. That was Joe Dumars. And if Artest played like that, then he would be a HOFer. But he doesn’t. If the Bad Boys had Artest instead of Dumars, they would not have won those titles. You’re looking at this from the wrong angle. Title teams don’t make HOFers. HOFers make title teams.
Either way, Dumars was a player of the caliber capable of being the 2nd best guy on a championship team and capable of having a HOF career. Deng is not. Plain and simple. The premise of my argument still holds. The Pistons had 2 HOFers for both title runs. This is a fact.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
You're missing the point
Your entire post was about how the Bulls need two superstars to win a title. Let’s say this was 1988 and we were talking about the Pistons. Your argument would be “We only have one superstar talent in Isiah. Dantley is getting old and isn’t a star anymore. Joe Dumars is really good, but he’s just 24 with a 13.7 PER. Unless we trade for another superstar, we can’t possibly win a title.”
Well, this Bulls team has Derrick Rose, who is a superstar talent. They also have Luol, who had a 16.1 PER with good defense as a 24 year old last year. They also have Noah, who had a 17.9 PER with good defense as a 24 year old last year. They also have Taj Gibson, who had a 13.8 PER with good defense as a 24 year old last year.
by YaoPau on Jul 16, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Perhaps Deng will develop into a HOF talent
I just don’t think that will happen. But Dumars did develop. And that’s why the Pistons won. Let me say that again — the Pistons won the title because Dumars became a star. Dumars’ PER during the 88-89 title season was 16.8, and it was 17.2 during the following season. And in both seasons he played magnificent defense against the best player in the game. If Bulls management thinks that Deng will blossom into a multiple time all-star and become a HOF caliber player like Dumars or James Worthy, then they should keep him. But we know they don’t think of Deng that way because they’ve been trying to give him away and upgrade for months.
There’s a difference between a superstar and an all-star who can be the 2nd best player on a championship team and possibly become a HOFer. If Rose develops into the former, then the Bulls only need the latter, as evidenced by the last 30 seasons. I think it’s a general consensus that Granger has a better chance of becoming that guy over Deng.
Think of it this way, if Luol was better, the Bulls would obviously have a better chance of winning a title. Well, we’re not trading Noah or Boozer, and I don’t think either will become a perennial all-star HOF type (maybe you could argue for Noah becoming a Russell-type player; we’ll see). So the only positions we have to upgrade are the 2 and 3. Not many perennial all-star type 2 guards or small forwards available right now. We don’t have one. Deng is not that guy. But Granger is.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Except that's not why the Pistons won
They won because they had Lambeer, Rodman, John Salley, Vinny Johnson, and Mark Aguirre on their team as well. They arguably had 7 guys on their team better than the Bulls’ 3rd best player. Instead, you’re suggesting the Pistons had a 0% chance of winning a title with Dumars at a 14 PER, then they jumped to a 70% chance with Dumars at a 17 PER.
I'm not suggesting that key role players are not important
And that’s an impressive list of key role players you just named. Plus the Pistons had one of the best defensive coaches in NBA history in Chuck Daley. All of that matters, we agree. But none of those guys made the Hall of Fame (maybe Rodman will). Dumars did. And my premise holds — 2 HOFers usually win titles. I’m just stating the facts. The last 30 NBA seasons show that a team comprise of 1 HOFer and a bunch of good role players usually won’t win the title. Winning has been confined to just a few players and a few franchises who have a major talent advantage over most other teams due to having 2 HOF types on the team. Lots of teams in the NBA have good role players. The Bulls right now have some pretty good role players. It is in fact a championship supporting cast. But 1 HOF type player is missing. And that’s why the Bulls won’t win.
PER is just a stat. A very good stat, but it can’t explain everything — like the importance of Dumars defense on Jordan. Dumars is a HOFer in part because of his defense against the best player ever.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
YaoPau's just saying that your premise is ridiculously arbitrary.
Some would even say ‘stupid’.
Something that makes it much worse is that you can’t really tell which players are going to be Hall of Famers before they actually become Hall of Famers. So this method is vaguely helpful in trying to predict things that’ve already happened. It’s much worse at actually, you know, predicting things. Which is the point of the theory, I’d assume.
And you can’t really say ‘Oh, I mean HoF-level players’, because that’s up for arbitrary judgment calls. Is Derrick Rose a HoF-caliber player? Who knows at this point?
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
At this point, we know some things about Deng
And we know that Deng is not a perennial all-star HOF-type player. Yet he’s being paid like one. We know that Rose has the potential to become the best point guard in the league. We know that nearly every championship team the last 30 years had at least 2 stars. We know this Bulls team does not have 2 stars. We don’t need to get caught up in the semantics of who is or isn’t or might become an actual HOFer. We know this Bulls team doesn’t have 2 guys that could get there.
I don’t see how this is difficult to predict. Vegas odds-makers do a fantastic job of predicting who will win the NBA title each year. They have all the same information that the rest of us do. The teams this season that have the best chance of winning the title are the Lakers, Heat, and Celtics. Others think Orlando also has a good chance. I think they are big underdogs. If the Magic win, they will be a big exception to the last 30 seasons.
Anybody who thinks this Bulls team can win the title as constructed will be disappointed. The overwhelming evidence of the last 30 years shows that this Bulls team very likely requires another star to win. Unfortunately, another star will likely not become available to the Bulls probably until 2014, and perhaps not even then.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 19, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
this is exactly right
there was this infamous RealGM article a few years ago that came up with some bullshit formula adding All-NBA team appearances and olympic gold medals (or something) and having that determining a championship-caliber roster…and a lot of those awards are skewed by team success and reputation.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 19, 2010 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Is there a dispute about the reputations of
Magic, Bird, Isiah, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Tim Duncan, and Kobe? Those 8 guys are all some of the best players in history and have won 27 of the last 30 titles. Is there a dispute about the reputations of Kareem, Worthy, McHale, Parish, Dumars, Pippen, Clyde Drexler, David Robinson, Dwyane Wade, or Pau Gasol? Those guys were most of the sidekicks to the 8 guys mentioned above. Is there a dispute about the Celtics Big 3? We can wrangle on a select few of the teams and a few of the players over the last 30 years, but I’m stating a pretty benign concept. If you want to win the title, the last 30 years have proven that you should have at least 2 stars on your team. The Bulls don’t have 2 stars. They should try very hard to get another one, but that probably won’t happen until 2014 or later, primarily due to Deng’s contract.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 19, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually the most dependable way to win a title
Would be to have 12 players that were all near hall of fame caliber.
Duh, two superstars>one superstar>zero superstars…problem is that teams have won without two superstars, teams have won without one superstar.
In the last 30 seasons, other than the 2004 Pistons,
just about all 29 other title teams had at least 2 (and some had 3) HOFers. You can make marginal arguments for the 94 Rockets and some of Duncan’s teams (depending on how Parker’s career plays out). But the premise holds. This is what the Bulls should be doing — looking for a perennial all-star type guy who can be the best or 2nd best player on a title team and who can possibly have a HOF career. They should be wary of paying big money to any additional guys who don’t fit that description.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
A dual pg/sg tandem of D.Rose/Deron.Williams ?
I’m not sure when D.Williams 3 year extention he signed previously is up, but surely he is discouraged how the Jazz are losing all their good players.
I know both D.Rose and williams play PG, but both are strong and either can guard most any SG.
These two together with the Bulls other cast can beat Wade & James.
"Maybe Paxson influenced has been a bit silenced :-)"
If Al Jefferson gets his old self back
They’ll be pretty decent.
The could put
DWill/Price
Bell/Miles
Kirilenko/Haywood
Millsap/Kirilenko/Jefferson
Jefferson/Okur
I think they could actually be better or at least as good if Kirilenko actually can stay healthy for a year, I know that’s a big if….but he’s a key piece for them agian….and they have the ability to trade him too if not be (expiring deal)….
But I like ’em. They have bigs who can be bigs, and Haywood if anything looks like a good shooter and a real competitor, and was a nice little boon for them…perhaps their own…..
I wouldn’t count Utah out just yet. If anythng they’ll remain where they’ve been nice 2nd round fodder for the Lakers, but this time they’re close to making another move with Kirilenko expiring where hopefully for them they’d resign him for a quite a bit less. Kirilenko at $6M-7M/yr for his 30-33 years or whatever would be a great deal….
2010-2011: I put the Scottie-Barkley Rockets feud curse on the Wade-James-Bosh trio.....
debbie downer
The Heat are not perfect.
"Get up or GET OUT THE WAY!"
~Stacy King
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jul 15, 2010 5:46 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
DARN IT!
I wanted to make that joke.
by Stacey_Is_King on Jul 15, 2010 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can either of you name
a better player than Danny Granger who the Bulls actually have a chance of acquiring before 2014?
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 6:34 AM CDT up reply actions
The Pacers won't trade with the Bulls
Why would they do that?
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 16, 2010 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
They probably won't
Which is why I said the Bulls will probably have to wait until 2014 until Granger becomes a free agent, precisely when Deng will also come off the books.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Deng is capable of being a starter on the championship team.
I don’t see why it’s set in stone that we can’t win until 2014.
by Stacey_Is_King on Jul 16, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Ron Harper was a starter on a championship team
All championship teams have 5 starters. Generally only 2 or at most 3 are stars. So that means every championship team has 2 or 3 guys who start but are not stars. Deng could be one of those guys? Sure, just like Ron Harper. But Deng ain’t Pippen…or Dumars or Worthy or McHale or Dr. J or David Robinson or Kobe or Dwyane Wade or Gasol or any of the Celtics Big 3. These are the sidekicks that won nearly all the championship in the last 30 years – and Deng is significantly worse than all of them.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say a 'sidekick'...
If Lebron came here, Rose would be a sidekick. Kobe was Shaq’s sidekick. ‘Sidekick’ implies 2nd option on offense. Deng would be a role-player.
by Stacey_Is_King on Jul 16, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, I completely agree
Trouble is Deng’s contract. He’s not paid like a role player. So it’ll make it hard for the Bulls to compete with such a large salary on the books for a guy that isn’t a championship level sidekick. And so Deng probably has to go for the Bulls to win. Maybe in 2014, Deng will re-sign with the Bulls at a much lower contract amount more commensurate with his true value. And maybe that will allow the Bulls to keep Deng and get another star. But at this price, he is a liability to winning. I like Luol. I really do. But this team can’t win with him making that much money.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I like Deng as the 3rd option
In the 8th grade Mike Ditka won his school's Science Fair with a model of a working volcano. There were 17 other working volcano's made that day, but only one named Mount Ditka.
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Jul 16, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
So if you wanna go by these stats...
Are you willing to say that it is a 90% chance that the Lakers, Spurs, or whoever Shaq signs with will win it all next year?
That's not the premise
Players age. If Magic Johnson signed with the Bulls, we wouldn’t have a great chance of winning the title. The premise is simple — during the last 30 seasons, teams with multiple HOF type players tend to win championships. The Lakers have a huge chance of winning again. The Spurs are cooked because Duncan is getting pretty old. Same with Shaq.
But Lebron & Wade are both going to be first ballot HOFers. The Heat have what it takes to win, according to the last 30 seasons. I don’t think the Orlando Magic can win the title with just Dwight Howard and a collection of decent players. If they do, they will be a rare exception. The last 30 years suggests they are a huge underdog to teams like the Lakers (Kobe and Gasol) and Heat (Lebron and Wade). The Nuggets and the Mavs are also huge underdogs. They only have 1 HOF type. Patrick Ewing didn’t win a title for a reason — John Starks & Anthony Mason are not HOFers. The Celtics still have a punchers chance, depending on health. They have 3 HOFers (maybe 4 depending on how Rondo’s career plays out). And not coincidentally, this group also has a title.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 6:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Seems like you're making Boozer and Noah out to be
Chopped liver. They are easily a top three frontcourt, and they are quarterbacked by a guard, that if he continues to develop, will challenge for the title of best PG in the league.
Instead of talking about how Deng needs to be a No. 2 option on the Bulls, let’s talk about how Boozer filled that role in Utah when healthy. Because, well, he did. Utah didn’t win a championship, but have consistently gotten to the second round without offensive depth outside Okur. The other guys on Utah in the recent past: Brewer, Miles, Korver, Kirilenko, etc are not nearly as good as Deng or Noah.
Our starting five is strong if we are able to sign an average starter at SG. Not many can content with it. Now, it’s hard to really predict the efficency of these players once they are together, but with this added 3pt shooting, a low-post presence, and an improved Rose, Noah, and Gibson, we have passion, depth, and impressive talent. It is not the “star” power of Pippen & Jordan or the Superfriends, but it is a team that if it overachieves, contends with any in the league.
Now, about Deng. Why in the world
I met one of Hinrich's Professor's at Kansas, but he never met Hinrich.
by Another Afflicted Chicago Fan on Jul 15, 2010 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
The 2nd round of the playoffs is not the NBA title
We both agree that the Bulls as constructed can perennially compete for the 2nd round of the playoffs, maybe the conference finals too. But not the title. I didn’t make up the rules. The last 30 years in the NBA are what they are. Maybe we can blame it on expansion. It used to be that teams had really great players coming off the bench. Now with 30 teams, if a team has major firepower in the starting 5, as in 2 HOF type players, the rest of the league may be simply too diluted to keep up.
Passion and depth don’t win titles. Nearly every team that loses in the conference final has passion and depth. Hall of Famers win titles. The 2004 Pistons were truly a fluke that no NBA front office should seek to replicate.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 6:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Noah is better than Okur though
Which helps the inside.
Rose is on equal billing as DWILL, or will be as he matures.
Deng is actually healthier than Kirilenko (who finds a way it seems to get hurt just as a big playoff series looms, and that’s been a major key to them being dismantled by the Lakers—that and the size or lack thereof in Utah. Well Bulls have the length, etc).
Deng is a better all around O player than Kirilenko (though I’d take Kirilenko’s D).
The loss on Redick’s a shame….but I think we’re a lot closer than you think
2010-2011: I put the Scottie-Barkley Rockets feud curse on the Wade-James-Bosh trio.....
I'm excited to watch this team play
And I’d be thrilled if this team became one of the few exceptions to the 2 HOFers rule and actually won a title in the near future. But if I was the Bulls front office, I wouldn’t count on it. I’d be focused on getting another star onto this team, like the Bulls tried to do this summer.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Conclusion of post is probably right
But that has as much to do with the Heat as the Bulls. By 2014, they will have filled in the Big 3 with enough role players that they will be straight out crushing people.
by JSB on Jul 15, 2010 6:57 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Everything depends on Rose
The team is obviously built around him now. For the foreseeable future, we’ll only go as far as he can take us. He’s been fun as hell to watch, and there’s no doubt he’s a damn good player, but he needs to take his game to a whole new level if we wanna compete for Championships. If he can elevate himself to top 7 (or so) player status, we’ll be right in the mix.
Superteams suck.
Forget Danny Granger, I am waiting for 2016
when Kevin Durant becomes a FA.
I just realized that LeBron and Bosh will be FA in 2016 as well.
Those 3 have already planned it out. History will repeat itself. =(
They have ETOs in 2014
So you only have to wait 4 years
by Bullsfan7210 on Jul 16, 2010 2:23 AM CDT up reply actions
you have to figure with the new CBA they'll stay for 6, though
unless they fail to win the first 4 championships.
….
c’moooon Kobe.
A true friend stabs you in the front - Oscar Wilde
by dantheman3k on Jul 16, 2010 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
LOL
That would be seriously depressing…
by ChiTownSportsMaster on Jul 16, 2010 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Fetus scouting report
Melo just got married, and I bet his wife is pregnant. Can you imagine the upside of that fetus? I’m waiting for the 2029 Draft. I say we try to trade up now using Deng and Gibson, maybe some 2nd rounders
Back off man, I'm a scientist
by Cliffston on Jul 16, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Like others, I agree with your conclusion.
I just don’t agree with how you got there. I don’t think it’s Deng’s contract, but other reasons, why they won’t be able to compete for a title until 2014. And even then, I’m skeptical.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I think we can all agree that the Bulls aren't championship defenders
but the notion that it’s some direct consequence of Deng’s contract just doesn’t make sense to me.
by Stacey_Is_King on Jul 16, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
For this team, at this moment
Deng’s contract is the impediment. Cap space will be very thin very soon. With Boozer just signing, the Bulls will be out of available cap space by 2012 when Noah’s extension will kick in (with Rose’s likely max extension kicking in the following year). The only way to upgrade this team will be to part ways with Deng. It simply is not possible any other way, assuming Boozer, Rose & Noah will be here for a while.
The Org knows this. If they could trade Deng for a similar player who’s contract runs out sooner, they would in a heartbeat. You wouldn’t normally trade a guy who you expect to be a HOF type that will get you over the hump. But the Bulls would gladly trade Deng right now if anybody would take his contract. That says a lot. He’s not a #2 HOF type guy, and everybody knows it.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 16, 2010 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions
What's the alternative.
You’re suggesting getting a better player for the same price as Deng. Or two players that are better than Deng + Brewer for the same price. What alternative is there?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
The alternatives stink
The Bulls are unlikely to be able to get rid of Deng and bring in a better player in the near future, which is why I think this team is probably limited to the 2nd round until around 2014. History suggest that the Bulls will need Rose to develop like we all hope he can, plus bring in another perennial all-star type player in order to have a serious chance to compete for the title. This is basically not possible with Deng on the roster.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 26, 2010 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Casting stats and awards and PER aside, he has a point in that the top players in the league get the rings. Granted they have pieces around them, but those pieces serve to complement a player that is one of the best of all time if your team is going to win a championship. One of the reasons for this is because teams must be carried by their best player when all the role players come up MIA in the playoffs. That great player must make clutch plays and lead his team.
To me, for the Bulls to win a ship, Rose must become a top 5 NBA player (totally possible), Boozer must play like a championship second banana( I’ll take those odds), and there should be a 3rd guy to pick up the slack. Whether Noah because of his defense and rebounding (and maybe post game?) or Deng because of slashing, defense, and shooting, it’s gotta come from somewhere. But the main thing is Rose must tear it up, lead his team, and be clutch. He’s performed well in the playoffs in the past but he is still only 22(?). Basically, Chicago’s hope is in Rose. They go as far as he leads them.
"We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams." -Willy Wonka
You are correct
Rose must become great for this team to have a chance. But even then, it doesn’t appear that Rose will be enough. Boozer is not like McHale or Garnett or Gasol. Those were 2nd banana power forwards that could score, rebound and played great defense. Not coincidentally, they’ll all be in the HOF. Boozer scores and rebounds, but we’ve seen throughout his career that Boozer’s not too interested in defense. I suspect this Bulls team will always come up short unless and until they add a 2nd star. I wish it weren’t the case, but that’s what the history says.
by That's Ridiculous on Jul 19, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions
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