Current cap space (update: Sham)

numbers so that’s the blank cap hold in the 12th slot.

  Just to clarify: that’s not to represent the roster, but to represent the cap holds caused by the roster.
Larry Coon’s FAQ

The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12 [emphasis mine].

  We need to have 12 players on our roster by the time the season starts, but holds only apply up to 11. The reason is perhaps best explained by this example: Let’s say we had 11 players on our roster and had $900,000 before we reached the salary cap. If we applied holds up to 12 players, then we we would only be able to spend ~$450,000 on a player, but once we did, we’d still be $450,000 under the cap. It only makes sense to have cap holds up to the first 11 players.

I was confused by this at first, but I am pretty confident that it makes sense if you work through it.

I’ll update the post as soon as Asik’s contract is leaked and add Asik and remove another cap hold.

1) If the Magic do match, that’s 7 days during which a good chunk of our cap space is tied up.

2) I don’t see the need for both Korver and Redick. Shooting is probably a “need,” but do you ever want to see Redick and Korver on the floor for any extended period of time. Korver’s deal is too large if he’s just around in case Redick is tired or injured.

3) Redick’s slightly more versatile than Korver, but the amount of cap space he’s eating up seems unjustified. If we believe the bulls can be contenders and that for that reason JR is going to pay the luxury tax, then the hit on this summer’s cap space should be the only number that counts. That means every contract should be ascending to allow for the bulls to assemble as much talent as possible. Redick’s talent does not warrant eating up $2.2 million more than Korver.

4) After the Korver signing, I saw our biggest needs to be a backup pg, a wing that can actually create his own shot, a wing defender, a backup C. Redick satisfies none of those and his deal cripples our ability to fill these needs.

5) His deal is large enough that it handicaps our ability to trade for large contracts; such as, Iguodala should he become available. We won’t have much more than the MLE (which a lot of other teams will also have) after Asik and the rest of the roster is assembled.

6) I think we need a quality back-up point guard because I expect Rose to get injured for a few games every season. When you’re that athletic things happen. So while it may be an unfair comparison, I’d rather have Hinrich + our 1st round pick + Korver, than Redick + ~$3 million + Korver. Hinrich’s way more versatile and whoever we drafted would be a trade asset. Along the same lines, I’d rather have talked to the Suns about Barbosa because for the same price we might have been able to get a pick or player from them as well. Barbosa can also create off the dribble, would be fun to see next to Rose, and has historically shot nearly as well from 3 as Redick.

I could probably come up with more reasons as well, but I’ll save the manifesto for if we actually land Redick.

I don’t really know about Korver, it might be safer to assume ascending, but given the Bulls are set to presently be in the luxury tax in three years, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it was descending or flat, but you’re probably right on it being ascending.

  It’s a reasonable thought. I am assuming we’re trying to improve as much as possible this summer and therefore use as much of our space as possible. It’s not like we’ll be in this situation again anytime in the near future with Rose and Noah’s extensions kicking in.

It’s unlikely to me that Boozer is being paid 76 million on an ascending deal with 10.5% raises if they originally agreed on an 8% one.

I just don’t see the bulls doing a S&T without any benefit to themselves besides a protected 2nd round pick and good will from the Jazz; maybe if it was Christmas time .

Maybe [Boozer] would do it to give the Bulls a little more flexibility, but the Bulls don’t really need the flexibility. Not sure. Anyway, that’s why I used the 13 million estimate rather than the lower one

  I don’t understand this. Why wouldn’t the bulls want the flexibility? If the bulls really don’t see a use for the rest of their cap space, then every player should be front-loaded. As you pointed out in your post, they don’t need to use all of it this summer, they can wait until the trade deadline.

Redick was announced as having a 7 million hit in year 1 by Sam Smith

Do you think that means Redick’s deal is actually for $19,320,000 (max descending), or do you think Sam was just rounding?

Anyway, I’m certainly not trying to say "HaHa! my guess is better!", I’m just providing my rationale, which could very well be mistaken. If I’m mistaken, we probably have slightly more room than I have us listed as.

You didn’t come off that way at all. You’re assume JR is planning on avoiding the tax as much as possible, which is what he’s done in the past, while I am hoping he’s accepted that now is the time to prepare to pay it. You’re banking on JR being the JR of the past, while I am banking on JR recognizing that we are close to having a contender and following through on his word.

The only part of your last part I disagree with is that we don’t have minutes available for a mid-level type player. I think we have plenty of time available for a combo guard or an athletic swingman. I’ll paraphrase Sham, but Noah’s what our 3rd best dribbler? We need more players that can handle the ball.

By the way, I included a link to your post because you had a conservative estimate of the cap space and I thought it was a legitimate estimation, I just hoped you were wrong. I think we need more talent overall, which is why I want the cap space to acquire it. I am not sure we’re better than Cleveland right now (but that’s another debate). I want to have the cap space so that when a slightly overpaid player becomes available we can nab him.

Please don’t say Arenas or something comparable.

Is Iguodala a good player? Yes. Does he make us into a championship contender? I only see that as a maybe. I don’t see Iguodala as enough of a talent upgrade to guarantee contention. And if he isn’t, he is then just a more expensive and less-flexible way of getting to what everyone is considering “mediocrity,” i.e. not a championship. It doesn’t really matter if we’re a slightly better “maybe” if we’re still just a “maybe,” at least under the logic of the “go big” advocators (the rationale of which is to go from “maybe” to “probably” with a big talent infusion). I think we missed out on the possibility of going to “probably” when we lost out on Wade and James. Therefore, I’m fine making these smaller, smart moves for useful guys who (1) don’t hamper our financial flexibility going forward, (2) are tradeable assets that other teams might want, and (3) increase our chances of winning next year and over the foreseeable future. Ultimately, our chances of contending rely much more on the development of Rose, Noah, and Deng (really hoping he develops a three-point shot; from Thibs’ press conference, it seems Thibs thinks he should, which makes me think it’s not an idle hope) and how well Thibs’ offensive and defensive systems work than on any SG we could get in the trade market (unless Kobe suddenly becomes available).

I’m especially dubious of Iguodala pushing us over the edge at shooting guard. A look at his 82games profile shows that he spends most of his time at SF (69% of the team’s minutes, as opposed to 11% for SG) and he’s more effective there: he is +0.5 as a SG in per-48 production but +8.2 as a SF. Some of that is because he himself is more efficient offensively as a SF, but he also has better defensive numbers as a SF (allowing 4 more points, one more assist, and a .050 better eFG% to SGs than SFs). (By the same stats, Korver seems to be marginally better as a SG than a SF; interesting.) Actually, comparing Korver’s and Iguodala’s defense at SG, it seems like they allow the same rate of scoring (right around 20.4 pts/48) from their opponent SG. Now, of course this is skewed from matchups and sample size, and I don’t mean to suggest that Iguodala isn’t a much better defender. I only mean to suggest that he doesn’t make the type of impact that would send us to “instant contender” status. (For the sake of completeness, Redick also allows 20.4 pts/48 from his SG counterparts, and he was probably facing more actual threats than Korver was — although still probably had better matchups than Iguodala.)

Although it does make me feel like I wasted a lot of time trying to figure out why my numbers were off.

I added your comment to the original post.

and you can’t combine them with cap space, or another player. I’m guessing they were renounced sometime this summer, though I’m not clear in which order teams have to renounce certain exceptions, and when the Bulls specifically needed the cap room.

By signing a slew of middling players, we’ve given up the cap space necessary to make a big move or two now. In short, we’ve given up current flexibility.

What we get is additional flexibility in three years… right when Derrick Rose’s new contract is likely to kick in. So basically, we’ll have no meaningful flexibility then either.

So I conclude that when people talk about how much “flexibility” we have, they actually mean to say we’ve committed ourselves to an inflexible financial situation.

It might be off by a small amount, but none of the contracts are perfectly accurate at this point.

The other reason to keep it is that a base salary of $3,148,148 over 2 years is $6.5 million and over 3 years is $10.2 million. Makes me assume the deal is $10.2 million per 3 years, with the final year unguaranteed.

Martynas Andriuskevicius is still on the payroll?

the total money was undersold?