Quick Cap Calculations + JJ rumor thoughts
by Jamaicanpi on Jun 25, 2010 6:01 PM CDT
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PrintI think most people who care have already figured these numbers out, but it's nice to have it down in print. I am referencing an old post of mine for some calculations. It's worth reading the last section about Joe Johnson at the very least.
What's the maximum contract for James, Bosh, or Johnson?
A max contract for James or Bosh depends on the salary cap. The largest contract they can receive from the bulls is either a 5% raise from their last contract or 30% of the total salary cap. If the salary cap is greater than $55,229,693, than they'll receive 30% of the salary cap; otherwise, if it's less, they'll receive a 5% raise. A 5% raise from their current contract would be $16,568,908, which represents the minimum amount for a maximum contract.
Joe Johnson's salary is much less than James or Bosh right now, so a 5% raise will almost certainly be less than 30% of the salary cap. For those curious Boozer's maximum deal would also be 30% of the salary cap.
What's the state of our cap?
Assuming we renounce everyone, we have 5 players under contract. Rose, Deng, Johnson, Gibson, Noah ($22,850,976). We also have 6 cap holds that are applied to make sure we fill out our roster ($473,604 *6). Which means our committed salary stands at $25,692,600.
If we signed another FA, then we would only count 5 cap holds and our committed salary would be $25,218,996 + FA contract.
Can we sign 2 FAs to maximum deals?
The short answer is no. A quick calculation:
Obviously, the only way to do this is if the salary cap is large. If the salary cap is over $55.3 million, then we would be signing two players to contracts worth 30% of the cap each. The value of all of our contracts would have to represent 40% of the salary cap, and the cap would have to be $63,047,490 ($25,218,996 / 0.40). Sadly, that isn't going to happen.
Does this Joe Johnson rumor have any legs to stand on?
K_yle33 mentions a rumor here that the Bulls may have agreed to sign Johnson to a contract for $60 million over 4 years (Thonus mentions it as well). This could be a great move if it made the bulls even more attractive to either LeBron or Bosh, but it obviously only works if we can actually sign them. A $60 million dollar contract over 4 years would start at $13,392,857.
If we take our $25,218,996 (committed salary) + $13,392,857 (contract for JJ)+ $16,568,908 (the minimum max starting salary) = $55,180,761. This figure is about $1 million below the often quoted $56.1 million cap, which is a good buffer in case that figure is high. Because these numbers work out so well, I think this rumor might be true, not to mention that we have no shooting guard to speak of. The sad news is that there probably wouldn't be enough money for Asik to come over this year, unless he's willing to take a pay cut. That being said, the Bulls would probably have the best starting 5 of any team with Rose, Johnson, Deng, Bosh/Bron, Noah (with Gibson and James Johnson on the bench).
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Great post, thanks for putting it all in one place
I’ve been doing roster mock-ups w/ salaries on Word documents the last few days and it’s nice to be able look at this instead.
I think the way you’ve drawn it up is the most likely scenario of all the possibilities so far. Johnson is known to be friends with Bron, he’d help space the floor, and signing him probably doesn’t require an S and T, the way it would to add Bosh.
I also love the idea of LeBron getting a lot of his minutes at the 4. Lebron’s mediocre ballhandling makes it very difficult for him to take opposing 2’s off the dribble. If he’s surrounded by 2-3 other perimeter talents at all times, someone will have a poor perimeter defender on them and be able to exploit the mismatch in Thib’s drive-and-kick offense.
I have no concerns with Lebron’s 270 pounds getting muscled by opposing 4’s. None.
Here’s a few questions as someone who hasn’t seen much Bulls action on TV:
1. I know he gets criticized a lot here…is James Johnson at least better than a minimum-wage, end-of-the-bench D-Leaguer? Is he a better fit at the “4” or at the “3”, long term?
2. Between these two options, which is the better team?
Option A.) The seven-man rotation created in Jamaicanpi’s post – Rose/JJ/Deng/LeBron/Noah, with James Johnson off the bench – surrounded by 5 minimum-contract guys.
Option B.) Rose, Deng, Lebron, Noah, surrounded by 8 minimum-contract guys. (Option B assumes the Bulls sent back $3M, a 2012 first-rounder, James Johnson and Gibson and a giant trade exemption to Toronto in exchange for Bosh).
Which is the better team, A or B? How you answer probably depends upon what type of player you think will be available to the Bulls on a minimum salary from this list.
Personally I think the Bulls might be able to entice a decent guy to take the minimum. The opportunity to play a very prominent role – rotation player, even a starter in Scenario B – for an outstanding team with a great chance at the title. More likely that an older player takes this offer than a guy in his 20’s because of how much salary the younger player would be leaving on the table for the rest of career (because of the restricted salary raises).
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 25, 2010 7:16 PM CDT reply actions
Option B I meant to have 5 guys in there, left off Bosh on accident
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 25, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks
is James Johnson at least better than a minimum-wage, end-of-the-bench D-Leaguer? Is he a better fit at the "4" or at the "3", long term?
I think this is a great question, but the answer like you probably know is that it’s too early to tell. My personal feelings are that he’ll improve a lot over the next few years. If his athletic testing means anything, he could probably play either the forward position. Based on his height and weight at the pre-draft camp and the fact that he doesn’t have a 3pt shot, I’d rather play him at the 4. This figure of NBA players’ heights and weights places James Johnson with the power forwards; James Johnson is the black square surrounded by blue circles (79.75 inches tall & 257 pounds).
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
I think for the simple fact
That he’s not an unknown makes him more valuable. By that I mean, a guy the rest of the players are comfortable playing with that is not good, is better than a guy off the street that is not good.
He’s obviously not a character issue guy, he’s athletic, he’s pretty much fearless on defense. Talent, maybe he’ll never be a starter, but at such a small number, probably better off with Johnson than a DLeaguer for less money.
Of course, if it’s the difference between Bosh and Joe Johnson, well then fuck James Johnson, GTFO.
by Grinder in Training on Jun 26, 2010 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions
One quibble on semantics: you mention the Bulls' "salary cap."
Every team’s salary cap is the same, whatever that ends up being.
I think you mean the Bulls’ 2011 committed salary. A little more cumbersome, perhaps, but a little less confusing, too.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Thanks Tyger
Believe it or not that was bothering me as well. I couldn’t think of the term. I am going to make that edit.
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
Good Post Jamaicanpi
Like i said on another bulls blog, the bulls would only have enough money for 1 max player, either Lebron or Bosh and then JJ, JJ isn’t going to receive a max contract if and when he comes to the bulls……hopefully it will be Lebron at 16 mill. and JJ at 14, but the bulls still need to get bench players to fill up the roster and i’m also wondering would Asik come and play for the bulls at the min.
no way
he was just making 2 million a year
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
He would, if he wants to win a championship
but money talks and bullshit walks
dude, when you're 24, 25, just coming to the league...
…projected to be a bench player, you’re not chasing rings.
Derr..
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Everyone goal that plays in the nba
is to win a championship, regardless of playing on the bench, ask players on the lakers……..it’s all on the person, what do they want, to win or the money, everyone in the nba is paid better than normal and average people, just getting the min………..the guy said he wants to play in the nba, he is already rich, because he was getting paid 2 mill. over seas, now he wants to play in the nba because that was his dream
If you were a player just coming into the league
Would you rather warm the bench on a good team or go somewhere where you could have te chance to start and make a name for yourself?
Brad Miller is god.
Exactly, they all have, and need to have, the ego to make them believe they can be a significant contributor
to a title team
It will be found an unjust and unwise jealousy to deprive a man of his natural liberty upon the supposition he may abuse it.
George Washington
they also need to be realistic and make some money
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Guess I wasn't clear enough on that, I was meaning to say that many would talk themselves into
signing with a lesser team for more money because they’d believe they are good enough to make up the difference
It will be found an unjust and unwise jealousy to deprive a man of his natural liberty upon the supposition he may abuse it.
George Washington
wow, you actually couldn't be more wrong, especially on our topic.
These guys are NBA D-Leaguers and undrafted rookie free agents. They have zero guarantee of a job, and the one they are literally most likely to have isn’t going to pay them more than $50-$60,000 annually. That’s a good wage, but it’s not significant, and they’re wasting time that could otherwise be spent gaining experience in another field.
If you’re a SG/SF, you could go to Portland where they have 37 other SG/SF and have a legitimate chance to win a lot, but you risk not even getting out of their summer league team, wasting that time by not impressing other coaches. Or, you could go to Detroit, where they aren’t going to win anytime soon, but they desperately need wing players to replace Prince and Hamilton, so they’d have a much better chance to make the team.
When the difference is between $60,000 in the D-league and $475,000 in the NBA and winning or not… and you’re young, you take the money.
As I said, “Derrr…”
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
He might sign for a year at the mnimum if the Bulls promised him that a larger contract was coming after his first one expired.
I’m not sure if that’s allowed, though.
2010 Offseason Motto: Get Greedy, Bulls. 1 top FA down (Thibs), 1 (or 2) to go.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 27, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
There's a limit to how much you can resign a player for in proportion to his previous salary
Might be some way to play with the numbers to make it work.
Brad Miller is god.
that's outlawed in the CBA
The T-Wolves tried to do that with Joe Smith (3 one-year deals, with a promise of a big one to follow) and Mr. Stern came down very hard on them.
They forfeited a few first-rounders, were fined a few million, etc.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 27, 2010 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Lame. I suppose we could just offer him the one year deal and wink at him and hope he gets the hint.
2010 Offseason Motto: Get Greedy, Bulls. 1 top FA down (Thibs), 1 (or 2) to go.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 27, 2010 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Good stuff, thanks for putting this up Jamaicanpi
Let's sign LeBron and dance our way to the NBA championship. It'll be so crazy!
A couple of items of note...
Since I am particularly high on David Lee (instead of Joe Johnson), his maximum salary would only be 25% of the salary cap due to years of service, or approximately $14,025,000 (assuming $56.1M cap), which means that the Bulls would be able to sign both Lebron and David Lee to max contracts. This also applies to Rudy Gay as well (and Tyrus Thomas).
Similarly, Amare’s max contract would be 105% of his most recent contract, which would put his starting number above the $17M. (Shaq, TMac and others could get much more too).
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
I soooo want the Bulls to get James and David Lee.
Rebounds will be conquered!!!
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
One more reason Amar'e should be low on the list of priorities. David Lee at his max > Amar'e at his max.
2010 Offseason Motto: Get Greedy, Bulls. 1 top FA down (Thibs), 1 (or 2) to go.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 27, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
The difference between capacity and ability
for Shaq and TMAC to get a higher contract should be pretty huge at this point.
If TMAC or Shaq get more than 10 million from any team, I really think those GMs should have their heads examined. Even if TMAC was in his prime, knowing what we know of his lack of committment and self-entitlement, he is not worth that many millions. He’s an asshole, simply an asshole. People were fans and loyal followers of the ROckets because of TMAC the superstar, and he shut them out. Signing him for that much money follows the Iverson marketing ploy. Sign a popular player who no longer possesses the skills that made him popular in the first place.
Shaq, on the other hand, could feasibly and appropriately be paidabout 5-8 million He doesn’t have the ability, but he is such an immovable force underneath that, used correctly, he still has value. It’s like pairing Warren Sapp near the end of his career with an elite, young athletic DT in a 4-3 defense. You have to pay attention to Sapp because he’s crafty and huge, but the other DT is going to benefit off one-on-one matchups. Shaq is a presence that you have to plan for, but is hard to defend when an athletic, powerful PF with a jumpshot is on your team (think Shaq and Haslem, Bynum and Gasol, Ming and Scola) Shaq may only play 20mpg, but when he is rested and used correctly, lethal.
Sorry for the tangent.
I met one of Hinrich's Professor's at Kansas, but he never met Hinrich.
by Another Afflicted Chicago Fan on Jun 28, 2010 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's a scenario where Shaq gets a $21M deal next year:
The Cavs are told that Lebron will stay if they add significant talent to the roster.
Shaq can be paid as much as 105% of what he earned last year, which was $20M. So he could be paid as much as $21M, and by league rules, up to 30% of that could be deferred.
Now, let’s take the worst contract in the game, Gilbert Arenas. He’s owed slightly more than $80M over the next four seasons. He’s also considered a less-than-ideal fit alongside the Wall, the Wizards’ new franchise centerpiece.
What if the Cavs offered Shaq (21M) in a sign-and-trade for Arenas (17.7M) and Andray Blatche (3.3M)?
The Wizards benefit by unloading more than $60M in long-term commitments, and their franchise’s biggest headache. Since 30% of Shaq’s salary could be deferred ($6.3M), they’d also save a ton of money in the short-term. Next offseason (’11), they would have John Wall as their only payroll committment, meaning they could make a huge splash with Baltimore native Carmelo Anthony and two other stars in free agency to play alongside Wall.
The Cavs benefit by getting 23-year-old, 6-foot-11 Blatche, who showed some serious upside the last 3 months of the year in averaging 20 pts and 8 rebs. And Arenas, despite his warts, is 28 years old. He will provide more value over the next five years than 38-year-old Shaq will. The Cavs could play him at the “2” and get an upgrade over Anthony Parker’s production.
With this trade, the Cavs’ payroll for 2010-2011 would be the highest in the league at nearly $100M, assuming they also dabbled in free agency with the MLE.
But it would make quite a statement about their desire to continually keep talent around LBJ.
MoWill/Gibson/Telfair
Arenas/West/Parker
LBJ-Jamison-Moon
Blatche-Hickson-Powe
Varajao-MLE? Ilgauskas?
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 29, 2010 2:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for including my previous thread in this post
But, doesn’t anyone else think if Lebron gets signed that Deng will be traded? There were already rumors of him going to clippers. I could see that if the bulls can get JJ and Lebron then they will try to trade deng for a PF.
Ways to get to two max contracts
Given Jamaicanpi’s figures, it would probably not be too difficult for the Bulls to clear the space still needed for two max contracts. To offer two, they would need $33, 137, 816 in cap space. Assuming a cap of $56,100,000 (which may or may not turn out to be correct), they currently have $30,407,400. To offer two max contracts, therefore, they would need to clear an dditional $2,730,416. The combined salaries of Taj and JJ for next year are $2,831,280. (This is not at all to say that I think they should dump Taj and JJ. It is just to make clear that the Bulls have a number of options if they really want to offer two max contracts. Some teams would probably be willing to take on Taj and JJ for nothing in return. Or it may be possible to include them in a sign and trade. Or it may be possible to dump Deng or trade him to team with some cap space for a contract or set of contracts $3,000,000 or so smaller. Or it may be possible to combine Deng and one of the other two and the future pick the Bulls got from the Bobcats in the TT deal. And on and on and on. As Christopher Reina said on RealGM yesterday, the Bulls are not YET in position to offer two max contracts, but they are so close that they could almost certainly get themselves in position to do it if that is what they want to do.)
Oops
I forgot to add in the cap hold(s) that would kick in if some player or players were simply given away. The general point still seems in order, though; it seems very likely that the Bulls could get themselves in a position to offer two max contracts if that were their goal.
by thelivingant on Jun 26, 2010 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually
It would be really hard for the Bulls to be able to offer 2 maximum deals.
If we use your scenario and the Bulls traded Taj and James Johnson for cap space, the Bulls’ committed salary would be for 3 players (Rose, Deng, and Noah) and 7 cap holds (+2 FAs). That totals to $23,334,924, if that totals to 40% of the salary cap, then the cap would have to be $58,337,310. I am using 30% of the salary cap for each maximum contract, since that is the true value of a maximum contract ( if the cap stays above $55.2 million). In other words we still don’t have enough cap space without moving one of Rose, Deng, or Noah, if we want to have enough money for two max contracts. We’d only have to shed about $0.9 million to offer two max deals assuming a cap of $56.1 million, under this scenario.
If we have to part with Deng either way, I’d rather hold onto Taj and James Johnson because they are on cheap rookie deals for the next 3 years. This means we’d need to move Deng and replace him with a player that makes $2.78 million less than Deng ($8.56 million). To further complicate things, this swap couldn’t be done player for player because Deng’s contract is more than 125% of $8.56 million. Meaning one of our rookies would have to be moved either way.
Ultimately, I’d rather have a team of 7 players consisting of [Rose, Joe Johnson, Deng, Bosh/LeBron, Noah, Taj, & James Johnson] than a team that only has 4 players in [Rose, LeBron, Bosh, Noah]. There’s just too many holes in that team and by the time those holes are filled, LeBron will have moved on to another team.
Signing someone like Joe Johnson for 4 years at way less than the max doesn’t sound that bad to me, especially if it happens July 1st. I think it would guarantee that we’d acquire LeBron or Bosh and that’s enough for me.
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
I see what you are saying...
but, what if they sign joe johnson on july 1st, then lebron signs with the bulls, why can’t the bulls then trade Deng + James Johnson + charlotte first rounder for a player like david west, al jefferson, or even a sign/trade for david lee? they could also trade deng for pure cap space and sign a 2nd tier PF like jermaine oneal. OR……what if the bulls trade away james johnson + deng for pure cap space then sign bosh, lebron, and ray allen to an 8 mil contract?
by K_yle33 on Jun 26, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
im just saying
there are still soooooo many possiblities. If the bulls sign lebron, i really dont see them keeping deng, i see them either getting a SG or PF for him (whichever they dont get in free agency).
Thanks for the clarification
Jamacianpi, you are the best. I love reading your stuff.
by thelivingant on Jun 26, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
One last question
If agreeing to terms with Joe Johnson on July 1 would guarantee that we acquire LBJ, I would certainly be for it. But why do you think that agreeing to terms with Joe Johnson would more or less seal the deal with LBJ?
by thelivingant on Jun 26, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Thta's what I don't get either.
It’s something everyone is assuming. Like Joe Johnson is a great shooter.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
but they're all under 27 and bonafide stars!!!
They won’t be “true” contenders next year (although 50 wins is close to likely), but the following year with MLE’s, BAE’s, ring chasers… and the next 5 years, there’s no one better.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
If the CBA were to rollover exactly the same, I'd agree with you
but I think the next CBA will eliminate the MLE and the BAE. If that happens, consider this:
However the core is established this offseason, it will be very, very difficult to improve the team year-to-year from that point forward. They’ll have the No. 28-30 pick in the first round, a few second rounders, and…nothing.
That’s an argument for using this offseason to create a good core of nine guys surrounding LBJ this offseason, rather than stripping the team down to four elite players and 8 minimum-contract guys.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 27, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
In all honesty, with Reinsdorf's "weight"....
…if the way to make his team the best in the league is to keep things, I find it hard to believe they’ll be completely eliminated.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
If the Bulls
included Deng in the sign and trade for Bosh or Johnson, they could easily afford two max contracts plus some left over.
DEJESUS!!!
I don't know if your sources are reliable, but Dave Aldridge said that his numbers say that the Bulls have enough for 2 max FA
If you want to see it by yourself, go to NBA Videos and watch The Bulls draft review.
Aldridge forgot the cap holds
This is the link to the article I am quoting by David Aldridge.
Chicago’s payroll for next season to $22.8 million—which would, if the current projection of a $56.1 million salary cap for the 2010-11 season holds, allow the Bulls to be able to sign two maximum salaried free agents starting next week.
His numbers aren’t any different from mine except that he didn’t include the necessary cap holds into his figure. Which makes him off by $2.8 million, the difference between 1 max free agent and 2.
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
One question, and please excuse my ignorance on the subject.
But how does the often alluded to “tax” work? Is the salary cap a soft cap which teams are allowed to go over if they pay some sort of luxury tax?
But great post by the way...
My math is rusty (I’m a history grad student) but doesn’t this also mean that even if we traded Deng and took back no salary in return we still couldn’t sign JJ, Bosh and Lebron, without each taking less than the max?
correct
Rose and Noah’s salaries, while still great bargains for the team, make it impossible for the Bulls to sign three max guys.
The only team that can do that is Miami, and only if they get rid of Beasley.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 26, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions
the bird rights don't even really come into play here.
Theoretically, Wade could leave, Beasley could be traded to a team with remaining cap space for a 2nd-round pick…and Miami could still sign three different guys to max deals.
The Bird rights would be an asset if Miami was near the cap already or above it, and wanted to re-sign Wade. They would be able to because they retained his Bird rights.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 26, 2010 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The NBA's salary cap is a soft cap, teams can re-sign their own free agents or bring in other free agents via
various exceptions or minimums. They can also acquire players via trade though the can acquire no more than 125% +100,000K in new salary compared to the salary they send out. The Luxury Tax threshold is a higher limit than the Salary Cap threshold.
It will be found an unjust and unwise jealousy to deprive a man of his natural liberty upon the supposition he may abuse it.
George Washington
and thanks to you too!
is it even worth trying to figure out all of the exceptions and how they work? seems mighty tedious
If you want to know more
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
ahh my friends have a number of reasons to think I'm strange
not too worried about giving them one more…
that link doesn’t work though, which salary cap faq do you recommend? there seem to be several
My mistake
Larry Coon’s NBA Salary Cap FAQ
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
care to explain the difference between the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold?
i can’t figure out why the bulls would try to stay at the cap if there’s no difference between that and the luxury tax threshold in regard to additional tax due and tax revenue not collected.
Cashing checks and having sex.
The Bulls can't legally go above the cap this offseason
The Lux Tax is an issue for teams that have re-signed a bunch of their guys and gone over the cap in doing so (like the Lakers).
The Bulls would a Lux Tax team in like 3 years, when they have the 1-2 max guys that they are signing this offseason on the books still, Deng(?) and the rising, re-signed contracts of Rose and Noah.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 26, 2010 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
joe johnson is simply not that good.
and he’ll only get worse.
and his best season isn’t even better than hinrich’s best season.
if we just traded hinrich to clear space to overpay joe johnson, then this organization is more clueless than ever.
i’d like to think after these shrewd moves to clear space the bulls won’t just throw away the money.
Cashing checks and having sex.
Wow
Ok, I’ll at least say that I certainly don’t want only Joe Johnson this summer, but to basically say that Hinrich is close to or at Johnson’s level is ludicrous.
Here are the problems with that:
1) Johnson is a better scorer (he had a 25ppg season)
2) Johnson is just as good a defender.
3) Johnson is a bigger name (while not something I care about, something other free agents will)
4) Most importantly…Johnson is a SG!!!!!!
If Hinrich were 6’6 and more athletic, your argument would hold some weight. Hinrich’s best season was actually pretty darn good. But it was as a PG. Do you want to pay 9mil a year to a good PG who is playing out of position at SG or pay 13 mil to an established scorer playing his proper position at SG? Or better yet, who do you think LeBron would rather have? Let’s ask him.
by DRose01 on Jun 26, 2010 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Hinrich were 6'6" and more athletic.
…he’d be an all-world defender.
Joe Johnson is a glorified PG. He’s only a SG because of his height. Johnson scored more because he took more shots. He won’t get those shots in Chicago. Seriously, they aren’t that different.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Ok, but you are missing three points
First, Hinrich did not shoot more and has not had a 20ppg season. Second, Joe Johnson is a more respected name around the league than Hinrich. Third, Joe Johnson may be a glorified PG in a SG body, but that’s exactly the point
Do you honestly believe it is a coincidence that in Hinrich’s first season playing more at SG than any other year that he had career lows in (these are all PER 40 pace adjusted) points, FG%, TS%, FTA, and PER and very near career lows in A/TO, STL, 3pt%? I don’t believe this to be a coincidence. Do I think Joe Johnson is the answer? No. I am not a big fan. I believe that if Hinrich were bigger, he would be near, at, or above Johnson’s level. But Joe Johnson is a SG and a big name. I believe his signing would give us a better shot at LeBron than Hinrich as the starting SG.
Plus, who else is available at SG that is a proven player that could help us attract a big time free agent? Morrow is available and I would love him (despite the lack of defense) but he is not a proven player. Ray Allen is old. Rudy Gay is more of a SF than a SG.
Who else do you take at SG?
Wes Matthews, Anthony Morrow, JJ Redick, Shannon Brown
I really like all four of those guys, even though they have very different games.
If the Bulls land LBJ, and struggle to land a second elite FA with the remaining ~$14M, I think I’d prefer that they simply spread the money around on a few free agents under the age of 26, guys who still have their peak years in front of them. I would prefer to invest in these types of guys than Ray Allen. They’ll be cheaper, and they offer some upside.
Matthews, Morrow, and Redick are all restricted FAs, but I’ll bet each of them could be signed and not have their teams match the offer for ~$5-6Mish per year over 4-5 years. Shannon Brown I like less than the other three because he doesn’t shoot as well.
I loved the way Redick played in the Boston series this year. He handled the ball extremely well and made great decisions against that great defense. He got rewarded with crunch-time minutes, too.
Let’s say Lebron was signed and there’s a remaining $14M. What if it was spent this way?
Redick – $6M per; Wes Matthews – $6M per; Asik – $2M per.
Here’s your 9-man rotation (I prefer to play small around Lebron, because I think he would be at his best in an up-tempo environment rather than MikeBrownBall):
Rose/Redick
Matthews/Redick
Deng/Johnson
Lebron/Gibson
Noah/Asik
I would love that team.
The thing that’s tough for any of us to evaluate here is, “What kind of a player will be available for the league minimum, if the Bulls end up signing two stars?” My hunch is, a pretty crappy group of guys.
So, by my logic, Asik + Redick + Matthews as part of a nine-man rotation (assuming Lebron has signed already) is greater than Joe Johnson and three scrubs in a nine-man rotation.
And by the same logic, Asik + Redick + Matthews + Gibson/James Johnson in a nine-man rotation might be better than a five-man super team of Bosh/LBJ/Deng/Noah/Rose with a bench of seven vagrants off the street.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 27, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Totally agree
I was making a different point. Joe Johnson could actually help attract another free agent. Most of these could not.
If we fail to sign a second free agent, all of these guys would be great additions.
by DRose01 on Jun 27, 2010 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it's slightly a coincidence. I think it's just as much derived from being 29.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Meh this could be true
I looked at 82games.com a bit. They had nice statical breakdowns by position. Hinrich has been up and down at SG. Some years he was actually better offensively at 2 guard. However, he was always much worse defensively. Most of the time, the only reason Hinrich didn’t have a god-like DRtg was because he had to guard the SG that Gordon couldn’t. Hinrich is still not the greatest fit, but I will say this, Joe Johnson really does suck. But again, I still say Johnson on your team is a better selling point then Hinrich. Whether it should be that way or not is a different story.
I 100% agree.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Great post
Will July 1 ever come?
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
Question...
Since appear to have a good handle on the numbers…
What are the odds of getting both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh to Chicago? Are their possible contracts combined too pricey?
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Jun 26, 2010 10:36 PM CDT reply actions
First, Wades not coming
and second, if he does decide to come, one of the players would get paid a max contract and the other about 14 mill……….i doubt both will agree to that, i believe JJ will agree to 14 mill and Lebron gets the max, which is about 16.8 mill
by Jermal on Jun 26, 2010 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
first time commenting here
i decided to actually contribute after being a passive reader for a long time now. questions abound: if the cap comes in at 56.1 mil, would asik sign for just under 1.4 mil which is what would be left based on your calculations here? if we dont sign asik, do we lose his rights for good? who are potential minimum salary backup pgs and big men? i heard some duhon talk, acie law? possibly an aaron gray-type body like aj ogilvy to act as the token uncoordinated guy who simply commits fouls and takes a beating in the post while joakim gets rest. darko? just kidding
If Asik makes $2M already in Europe, I can't see him coming over for less.
The owns his NBA rights until they trade those rights away. He could stay over there for another year, or another several years.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 27, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, and he's already working out in chicago.
I don’t, however, see him signing for the minimum just because it limits future salary.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
assuming the CBA doesn't change that
Doesn’t seem very moral to me. Might as well take Satan’s autograph while you’re at it. - N.C.
sure
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
what happens if we trade deng
I’ve never been able to do cap math.
What happens if we trade Deng for Gortat and Pietrus(sp?). Does that give us more room under the cap?
more, by about 3 million
(the difference in combined salaries and one less cap hold)
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I disagree with your figures, tyger
Gortat and Pietrus combined will make $11.62M next year. Deng will make $11.36M. So, the Bulls would actually have $300K less cap room after the trade. Although, that $300K difference is offset by having one less cap hold ($473K) since Deng for Gortat/Pietrus is a 2-for-1 swap.
Bottom line, I agree that a Gortat/Pietrus-for-Deng swap creates more cap room, but my math has it at less than a $200K impact, not $3M as stated above.
"It’s ideal if your hobby and your living can merge. But you are not going to stop your hobby if you can’t make money out of it. Your hobby is all about trading time for enjoyment. My job is what I do. My hobby is who I am." -Tango
by notsellingjeans on Jun 29, 2010 1:57 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
doh, i still had in my mind pietrus and bass
my fault
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I was looking up that trade earlier.
Bass makes $4,000,000 next year to Gortat’s $6.3 or what-not.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Question
I’m trying to convince someone that the Bulls could conceivably trade Gibson and Johnson to completely open that second max slot. They say trading Deng is the only way. Can someone with knowledge of the numbers help me out?
No one really knows the numbers yet because the NBA has yet to calculate the salary cap. That's what the moratorium is for.
2010 Offseason Motto: Get Greedy, Bulls. 1 top FA down (Thibs), 1 (or 2) to go.
by fundamentallysound on Jun 27, 2010 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Copy and pasted from a post of mine above
It would be really hard for the Bulls to be able to offer 2 maximum deals.
If we use your scenario and the Bulls traded Taj and James Johnson for cap space, the Bulls’ committed salary would be for 3 players (Rose, Deng, and Noah) and 7 cap holds (+2 FAs). That totals to $23,334,924. If that totals to 40% of the salary cap, then the cap would have to be $58,337,310. I am using 30% of the salary cap for each maximum contract, since that is the true value of a maximum contract ( if the cap stays above $55.2 million). In other words we still don’t have enough cap space without moving one of Rose, Deng, or Noah, if we want to have enough money for two max contracts. We’d only have to shed about $0.9 million to offer two max deals assuming a cap of $56.1 million, under this scenario. We have to part with Deng either way,
"I skim a LOT of what gets said here
in a race to put in a smirky retort."
-your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT
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