Numbers/Notes on the Second Tier PF FAs

[From the FanPosts. Not sure how I missed this yesterday. Great analysis of the 3 non-Bosh PFs -ed.]

OK.  Lets change things up and add Dirk and Bosh just for the hell of it.

This post is not meant to be particularly original; most of this stuff has been said already in other threads.  It wishes to be a central place where one can look at some relevant numbers on FA PFs for comparison.  The only guys I will be considering here are Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki and David Lee.  Unless stated otherwise I will only be using their numbers from this year.

Offense

Jumpers

Boozer: .448 eFG%

Amare: ..452 eFG%

Lee: ..430 eFG%

Bosh: .444 eFG%

Nowitzki: .474 eFG%

Notes: Amare and Boozer are very good shooters and have shot like this in previous seasons.  Conversely, this represents a career high in shooting accuracy for Lee.  If this is not an aberration for Lee but sign of sustainable improvement, then all of these PFs would be good options for pick and pop plays.

Inside

Boozer: .673 eFG%

Amare: .669 eFG%

Lee: .656 eFG%

Bosh: .612 eFG%

Dirk: .617 eFG%

Notes: Its amazing how well Amare finishes given the amount of contact he draws.  Any of these guys would make a fantastic pick and roll target.  But something occurs to me now, though it might be very wrong.  Thinking back, it seems to me that Rose likes a majority of picks to be set on the left side of the court.  Rose goes across the pick from left to right and tries to attack the right side.  This leaves the big guy rolling down the left side.  If all of this is true (not a given at all) then wouldnt it be useful to have a left handed big guy (like Bosh), or a guy who finishes really well with his left hand (like Boozer, or like Lee, who is naturally left handed though he plays right-handed)?  I dont know.  Frankly I dont know how effective Amare is going left.  I'm thinking out loud here.... I wonder if Dirk and Bosh's numbers are like this because they dont run the pick and roll as much as these other guys, or because they are more slimly built.

Passing

Boozer: 15.8 AST%

Amare: 4.8 AST%

Lee: 17.5 AST%

Bosh: 11.5%

Dirk: 13.0%

Notes: Boozer, like everyone else in Sloan's offense, is a very willing passer.  From watching Utah, Boozer appears to me to be very skilled especially as an interior passer.  He moves the ball along to open players, but does not seem to "create for others" per se, in the sense that a lead guard creates for others.  Lee, however, has done just that this year, and his number here represents a career high.  For PF/C it is the third highest AST% in the league.  Only Duncan and Josh Smith had higher assist rates.  This seems like an awfully impressive feat for Lee considering Tim and Josh had much better teammates....  Only 5 starting bigs recorded assists less often than Amare.... Dirk is just a really smart player.  He doesnt force anything and, as you'll see in a minute, he doesnt make mistakes.

Turnover Rate

Boozer: 14.3%

Amare: 12.1%

Lee: 11.9%

Bosh: 10.7%

Dirk: 7.8%

Notes:  Lee kept his TO rate the same as last year despite large increases in usage and assist rate....  Amare commits a lot of offensive fouls.... If you have watched Dirk over the years this number should not be surprising.

Offensive Rebounding Rate

Boozer: 8.2%

Amare: 9.7%

Lee: 8.4% 

Bosh: 9.9%

Dirk: 3.1%

Notes:  Since the Bulls have not been much for putting the ball in the hoop since about 1997, I think ORB% is a pretty important skill for the Bulls PF to have.  I guess Amare wins this, but its probably not by enough to be too relevant.... This was a career high for Bosh.... Dirk has always been bad at this.

Overall Offensive Picture

To make this comparison as fair as possible the number I want to give here will be Player Ortg minus Team Ortg.  This should help contextualize how powerful an offensive player a guy is.  But, since each of these guys had different usage rates, I have adjusted Boozer and Lee's USG% to match Amare's 27 USG%.  Since I did this, I also had to penalize Lee and Boozer's ORTG, which should take a corresponding hit.  According to a recent article on B-R.com, a player with >23% usage has his Ortg fall .833 points for every 1 point usage increase.  Using this I can create an Adjusted Ortg for both Boozer and Lee that will be suitable for comparison to Amare's.  The numbers I give here will be: Adjusted Player Ortg- Team Ortg.

Boozer: -.7

Amare: + 2.0

Lee: +5.5

Bosh: +7.7

Dirk: +8.5

Clutch Numbers per48 (Points/Rebs/Ast/Stl/Blk/TOs/FTAs/FG%)

Boozer: 29.1/14.1/2.5/1.2/.8/4.6/10.4/58.1%

Amare: 28.1/9.9/2.9/.4/1.5/2.9/9.9/62.2%

Lee: 22.4/15.9/3.8/0.0/.9/2.1/2.4/64.8%

Bosh: 30.9/14.3/5.1/1.4/2.4/2.0/16.6/38.1%

Dirk: 47.2/9.0/5.3/.8/2.0/2.5/14.9/44.9%

Notes:  These guys are terrifically accurate in crunch time.  Not many defensive plays between them though.  Oh well.  Noah will have to make up for that, which he currently does anyways.... Lee by far has the best Ast/TO ratio.  He will NOT be shooting FTs in crunch time however (2.4 per48!).

Defense

Defensive Rebounding Rate

Boozer: 29.9%

Amare: 18.9%

Lee: 27.6%

Bosh: 25.2%

Dirk: 20.1%

Notes:  While I realize the Bulls are already a good defensive rebounding team, and there are only so many defensive rebounds to grab, since these three guys are all fairly weak defenders I would think snagging defensive caroms would be a good way for them to pull their weight defensively.  

Block Rate

Boozer: 1.1%

Amare: 2.1%

Lee: 1.0%

Bosh 2.1%

Dirk: 2.0%

Notes:  If Deng were in this comparison he would have the second highest block rate, only .3% behind Amare.  

Steal Rate

Boozer: 1.6%

Amare: .9%

Lee: 1.4%

Bosh: .9%

Dirk: 1.2%

Personal Fouls/36

Boozer: 3.6

Amare: 3.6

Lee: 3.1

Bosh: 2.4

Dirk: 2.5

Notes:  Boozer's numbers here might be a little high because Sloan instructs his guys to foul the crap out of opponents.... The Bulls did a very good job defending yet not fouling this year; Bosh or might fit in to this scheme adequately.  

Defensive PPP

Boozer: .85

Amare: .84

Lee: .98

Bosh: .89

Notes:  Wow.  Terrible showing by Lee.  However, it should be noted that Lee will not be forced to be the Bulls center, and thus will be matched up against players his own size.  Apparently this is a big deal.  As YaoPau pointed out in one post, Lee gives up 15 points 11 rebounds to centers, and only 13 points 8 rebounds to PFs.  Lee turns centers into Andrew Bogut and PFs into Udonis Haslem.  Big difference.  So there is reason to believe Lee might be a better man defender in a Bulls uniform.... Heres a link to Amare and Bosh's numbers as provided by fundamental.  Bosh is a good defender in iso and post situations (interesting because of his skinny frame), but he seems to lose his man a lot, which kills him.  His spot up jumper D is really bad.  And his defense on guys rolling to the basket is bad.  This tells me he is either a ball watcher, or hes trying to be the KG-like man who gets everyones back and corrects his teammates mistakes on D.  He shouldnt have to do that on his next team.

PER

Boozer: 21.3

Amare: 22.6

Lee: 22.2

Bosh: 25.2

Dirk: 22.9

Notes:  By itself I am not sure PER means anything substantial, especially when you are given three PERs this close to each other.

WP/48-- The Dave Berri-thing

Boozer: .291

Amare: .170

Lee: .247

Bosh: .223

Dirk: .135

Notes: If I understand Berri correctly, Lee suffers just a little in this because he is listed as the Knicks center.... Bosh too...  Like with PER, by itself, and with players this close in productivity, it doesnt really mean much to me.  I just thought I'd throw it out there. 

Age

Boozer: 28

Amare: 27

Lee: 26

Bosh: 26

Dirk: 31

Notes: The magic number here is 21, Rose's age.  The closer the FA is to that the better.... Bosh turned 26 two days ago.... Dirk turns 32 in 3 weeks.

Character

Boozer:  People seem to say Boozer is a bad guy because of the Cleveland baggage.  Two things.  One, he appears to be a very vocal and supportive teammate during games.  Two, how bad could he be if Colangelo picked him for his Team USA Renaissance "Its an honor to be chosen to represent your country" thing?

Amare:  I always feel like people think of Amare as a bad guy or a headcase or unreliable or something.  I would like to counter with a couple of things I took from the book 7 Seconds or Less.  One, I thought Amare came off as a very likable, if terribly self-involved, man.  Two, Amare has had a successful, lucrative and stable career so far in spite of the fact that his upbringing, by any standard, was pretty awful.  A lot of other guys in Amare's position have done a lot worse, and that to me points to some admirable strength in Amare's character.  

Lee:  Hes gotten better almost every year of his career.  Other than that I know nothing about him, from which I can deduce that he is either a good guy, or a discreet villain.  

Bosh: He appears to be a thoughtful and charming person who donates quite a bit of money to charitable organizations.  On the other hand, he does have this strange issue with his former girlfriend/mother of his child.  Heres one article on this issue.  Heres another.  I cant really find anything thats less than a year old though.

Dirk: Hes likes reading and plays the sax.  His former girlfriend is a weirdo.  

Injury History

Boozer: I can not find a comprehensive list, but his injuries seem to be numerous and nagging.  I think his hamstrings are actually made out of strings of cured pork.

Amare: Mainly Amare has had the microfracture surgery in 2006 and the detached retina last year.

Lee:  The only injury I can find on Lee is a badly sprained ankle in 2007.

Bosh: I have no idea where Yaopau found it, but I remember him presenting a list of Bosh's injuries.  They are many and petty.  He reminds me of Boozer in that regard.  Sounds a little dangerous to me.

Dirk:  An iron man of sorts.  He misses 3-5 games a year, but thats it.

Notes:  I don't worry about Amare: hes a total freak of nature.  And obviously Lee has shown himself to be a healthy player.  Boozer I worry about a little.  

Entertainment Value

Not a totally unimportant criterion.  I am sure most fans have a picture of their ideal team, or at least of the ideal player for each position.  For me Amare has the look and style of a true PF; I can't ever see myself getting tired of him dunking on peoples heads and then roaring at the basket stanchion like a perturbed grizzly bear.  

Boozer and Lee do not have the same nuclear capabilities as STAT.  For me, they provide entertainment with their passing ability.  Especially Lee.  Basketball is the sport I most like to watch, but hockey and soccer are the sports I most love to play.  These sports ask you constantly to move the ball/puck and also yourself, so I have always been fond of clever passing (as opposed to the typical Bulls' obvious, futile passing around the 3 pt arc).  

YouTube

Carlos Boozer:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfTAog-mie4&feature=related

Amare:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtprtyyntxA

David Lee:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPN8G9cBIco&feature=related

Dirk:  Nothing.  His videos are all grainy and at least 3 years old.  

Bosh: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHBw0cyKQaU

Notes:  Boozer looks way cooler in YouTube land than he does in real life.  That move he did on matt barnes was ridiculous.... In spite of his microfracture surgery, Im pretty sure Amare could dunk from the 3pt line.... YouTube: Not flattering for David Lee!

Conclusion

My own personal wish list for PFs is as follows:

1. Bosh

2. Lee

3. Amare

4. Dirk

5. Boozer.

I like Lee's fit with the Bulls.  He basically does what the other guys do, but he also creates shots for others.  This seems like it would be a pretty useful skill to have not just in itself, but also because it covers up the playmaking deficiencies of Deng.  I also like the idea of a noah-lee-deng frontline, since going into every game I will know that the rebound battle has already been won.  And he might come cheaper.  That being said, I love Amare's style and his ability to get to the free throw line, so I will not be the least bit upset if he comes here.  With Boozer, I probably will be a little crestfallen.   

And here's YaoPau's post on these three.