Check out these numbers, if you will, from the Suns' first 38 games compared to their most recent 39. As you'll see, 38 games into the season there was no doubt about the focal point of Phoenix's attack. Nash led the team in minutes and usage rate, and by a wide margin in player efficiency rating.
NASH AND STOUDEMIRE, 2009-10
Minutes Usage Rate PER First 38 games Nash 1,320 25.66 24.53 Stoudemire 1,281 24.51 20.52 Last 39 games Nash 1,128 19.67 18.37 Stoudemire 1,376 23.88 24.25
Since then, however, two things have happened. First, Nash's balky back has turned on him a bit. Second, Amare Stoudemire has become much more comfortable after playing his way back into shape in the first half of the season (he couldn't train over the summer while he recovered from a detached retina).
As that has happened, Phoenix has shifted from a Nash offense to an Amare offense. Over the past 39 games, Stoudemire -- not Nash -- is the Suns' leader in minutes, usage rate and PER. He's passed Nash on the PER charts despite being miles behind at midseason, and has a chance to pass him in usage rate, too.
That's from John Hollinger's latest article on how the Suns are by far the most efficient offense one again this year, and the third best all time, by his metrics. Reading this backed up what I had already suspected: Amare has been playing better and better and getting back to his dominant ways.
Now, I haven't done the research to take a really good look at this question, but I hope some people have the relevant stats to discuss it fully. For now, I'll just go with my subjective impressions. Bosh is better at posting up and facing up, but with Rose's lack of three point shooting, he might not get as much space as he would on another team. Amare on the other hand is better at finishing around the basket and finishing on pick and rolls, which with Rose would form a truly deadly combo.
Also Amare has played seemingly his best ball this year with Robin Lopez, who does a lot of similar things to Noah (except worse) which makes me think they will mesh nicely.
I believe Bosh is the better defender, and that might hurt be a strike against him, but with Deng, Noah and Hinrich (hopefully we'll improve over him, but for now) we should have a good defense either way.
Another, selfish reason is that I just don't like Bosh's game very much and I love Amare's rim rattling, posterizing attitude. This has nothing to do with whether he's a better fit or not, but if they're close to even, I'd rather go with the player that will be more fun to watch for the next 6 years.
I'm very open to the possibility that I'm very wrong on this, I more just want to start the discussion and see where it leads. At worst, I think people are underestimating how good Amare could be as a consolation prize if we miss out on Bosh (or Wade, etc.)