A whole new playoff race
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 3, 2010 11:15 PM CST
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PrintThe Bulls were straddling a line that made their trade deadline quite interesting. They wanted to give up a long-term contract, yet tried to make sure their present-day chances for the playoffs weren't diminished too much.
I still believe that within those limits they did a good job. They knew they had a small margin for error with this team, and while they took a hit in terms of present-day talent (despite early returns and gushing praise from the Bulls media arms) it didn't look to be enough to critically hurt their playoff chances.
But Joakim Noah was expected to come back at that time. And now, after a brief return, he's been shut down for 3 additional weeks, a minimum and (as we've already seen this season) unreliable prognosis.
In a 5-team race for 4 spots, with the rest of this month being the most difficult, the Bulls could very easily find their way out of the playoffs by the end of March. The Bulls greatest strengths (beyond the 'save us Derrick Rose' mode) all season have been their team defense and their offensive rebounding, and Noah is critical to both. That effect is on top of what they already lost in those areas due to their deadline deals. While the replacements will mean a better and more skilled offensive team, I doubt it'll be enough to make up the difference on the other end.
But it's still the East, and the Bulls likely have another late-season surge (schedule gets easier too) in their pocket if they're within striking distance. Plus their destruction of the NBA dregs over the last couple weeks gave them a 2.5 game cushion (as of Wednesday night). It won't be some kind of speech or 'wanting it' that keeps them afloat*, but for players to conveniently not schedule their slumps (i.e. Miller and Hinrich) and for no other injuries (Deng) to occur in that time.
One thing that is certainly now far-fetched is the expectation of them getting the 5 seed, the best evidence for a 'team on the rise' narrative heading into this offseason. But even as an 8 seed, while they'd miss the chance at a potentially competitive first round, still means 'playoff team'. Which I'm told (and still somewhat believe) is important.
But I have to wonder if the Bulls miscalculated \how important it really was. If they cleared more salary at the deadline and more substantially hurt their present-day team, and they missed the playoffs, would the luster have worn off of the 'team on the rise'? Maybe the same changes plus Hinrich gone, and Noah hurt on top of it (though maybe Tyrus stays in that scenario? still productive, if a pain in Vinny's arse if that's the case) they get to be too overmatched and truly go into a tailspin.
But if they were still competitive, and Rose was showing off in winning them a couple games they shouldn't, even if they missed the playoffs would that really have been a much more different free agent pitch? The more this free agency approaches, the more I feel like the Bulls are powerless in recruitment anyway. The decision of the biggest of free agents to come to the Bulls will be serendipitous if anything. So if all else is equal, maybe if the Bulls had to do it over again they would've focused more on the 'move money' goal of the deadline instead of making the playoffs, which they may not do (and likely won't do so impressively) anyway.
*Side note on that Sam Smith piece: First of all, I don't think anyone questions the Bulls play hard, so I don't get the need to call them out to do so as a response to Noah's injury. But I find it funny that while Sam lauds the Bulls for keeping players under contract because they're not motivated by free agency, he goes through possible players (and coaches) to send a message, and Kirk Hinrich isn't even mentioned. Isn't he the intangible-filled team captain? Wouldn't this be a reason to keep him, since the on-court production is meh at best? Or is all that 'glue guy' talk mostly puffy nonsense.
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Isn't it 5 teams fighting for 4 spots?
Toronto is only a half game ahead of the Bulls and Bucks and Bosh is injured
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 3, 2010 11:21 PM CST reply actions
yes
thanks.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 3, 2010 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
I'm confident in our D-Leaguer.
He’s going to shine like a towering beacon of hope to a dull playoff sweep by the Magic. Then the signing of Joe Johnson. The Dynasty will be restored by Joe Johnson. Yes Joe Johnson. I see the second round and it looks inviting. Pride will gush from all Bulls fans as we dance in the streets and raise our Subway Bulls horn hats from 1997!
Until then I will enjoy Chris Richards in all his glory and then.. then my friends.. the summer of Johnson. Joe..
I love watching the 2010 expiring contact Bulls and just completely having no emotion involved in winning or losing.
I hate to be mean but watching this team is like watching the special Olympics.
My favorite retard plays for the Bobcats.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wandering through a forest.-Neil Funk
That was totally uncalled for.
Not sure why I even typed it…
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wandering through a forest.-Neil Funk
posting drunk?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 12:25 AM CST up reply actions
I will be too drinky through the whole month of March.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wandering through a forest.-Neil Funk
posting with a mancrush?
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
I used to be a decent fellow.
The older I get I find the more I make fun of retarded people. I might need help… nah fuck it!
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wandering through a forest.-Neil Funk
Post defense and 3s
Somehow, somewhere, these areas need to improve. I believe that “playoff team is not enough”. I feel like competitive (possibly victorious) first round is required to become a player in the FA market.
Why aren't they selling Rose's all star jersey?
God, I hope not.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
How long is Bosh out?
Just wondering…my hope lies in other teams failures…and the far hope Rose plays out of his mind for 4 qts every game…pargo breaking his ankle wouldnt hurt either.
by Vohaul79 on Mar 4, 2010 12:41 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Too soon to panic.
Not that we’re a lock either, but I think even without Noah, Bulls have shown they’re a good enough team not to take a steep slide. Even if we didn’t, I’m not sure about the idea that not making the playoffs would dissuade a max FA anyway…we’d still be better than NY or NJ. Even if you hate the org sometimes, have some fan self-esteem. Why be so eager to feel disappointed?
The absolute best case scenario is to make the playoffs and survive the 1st round. Our best bet would be against the Celtics. Even if we lost to them, we’d come away looking a helluvalot better than if we’d played Atlanta, and if this is the case, then we’re pretty much where we need to be right now. Even if we went 8th and the Bulls showed they could hold their own (better than most people expect) against Cleveland, how bad would that be?
That said, I’d be more than satisfied if an 8th seed playoff berth comes down to an epic Taj vs. Tyrus battle on game 82.
hard pail lunch hat
I feel like our chances at a competitive first round series have nothing to with what seed we get
Rather, it involves whether or not the other team is healthy and playing at full capacity (that and if we’re healthy and at full capacity).
If we play a Cleveland team missing Shaq, and if Gibson, Williams, and Jamison go into a shooting slump, we might have a chance.
If we play Orlando and Howard gets into repeated foul trouble and Carter goes through one of his streaks where every other shot is a fadeaway jumper, we might have a chance.
If we play Boston and KG’s out with rheumatoid arthritis, we might have a chance.
If we play Atlanta and Josh Smith lazes through the series while Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford settle for too many contested jumpers, we might have a chance.
Basically, the only way we could conceivably make it out of the first round, IMO, is if we play our A game and if our opponent decides to play their C game. And even then, it’s only a toss-up.
Those are big "ifs"
Obviously you want everyone healthy and bringing the A-game, that much is a given. But to beat the Cavs, they’d have to be in a seriously bad way, and I like our chances against Orlando even less…not so sure Rose is gonna be looking to draw contact from Howard after what happened last time. As far as the Hawks go, Josh Smith looked the opposite of lazy last game, he was scary-nasty. That leaves Boston, who just lost to the Nets, and is always going to be more tired than they were the day before.
hard pail lunch hat
My point exactly
Our chances of beating a team in the playoffs are dependent on the other team playing at their worst level, which is highly unlikely.
Okay, but if you had to pick who you'd want to go up against...
I still think Boston is the one to hope for…they’re the most beatable team, the series would draw plenty of free-agent seducing hype (if you subscribe to this theory) and after the other night, Atlanta scares the crap out of me.
hard pail lunch hat
Look down.
I clearly said “I think bostons our best shot”
but that’s only because they’re the most likely to be at less than 100%. if they’re healthy we’re screwed
Also, KG being out isn't that big of an if.
I think Boston’s our best shot since they’re the ones most likely to be crippled by injury.
All this only makes me miss TT even more
Specially with the guy bringing 14ppg, 8rpg e 3bpg for the ’Cats…. I still think we should have done this better but I must stop thinking about it
Dont kid yourselves people,
it would be tough for the Bulls NOT to make the playoffs, not that it is any kind of accomplishment these days.
2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"
Without Noah
there is certainly no guarantee. However, as long as the Bulls can do what they’ve done most of the year (stay relatively healthy and play halfway-decent ball) they should hang on. One of these five teams will “collapse.” Smart money is on the Heat or the Bucks in my opinion.
Even if the Bulls miss the playoffs, as long as it’s a “barely miss” circumstance and there are good reasons for such a failure (i.e. more injuries, especially to Rose), I don’t think it diminishes our chances very much. Any idiot could plainly see that we’re a much better competitive destination than NYK, NYJ, or LAC.
Seems like 'garterade'
random goth chicks in garters, yeeeeah. We could be the Lakers!
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
I think
the ‘save us Derrick Rose’ mode
will be enough to sneak into the playoffs
by Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. on Mar 4, 2010 11:54 AM CST reply actions
The "strategy" is not a legitimate one
Unless you’re talking about making money, in which case mission accomplished for next year and then the lockout.
But it is simply not a basketball strategy to intentionally gut your team over two years for a mere chance that someone good will choose to sign with you, even though you have absolutely no control over that process.
A real basketball strategy would have been to do what the Rockets did. They could have cleared space by dumping this year (trade Battier, keep expirings) and throw their hat in the ring in 2010, but they made basketball moves. My guess is they will start 2010 in much better position than our strategizing Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls: Clippers East, since 1999
That's basically how I feel as well
it’s first and foremost a strategy to cut payroll. I think they could reasonably say having nothing is a better asset than having Gordon at $10m a season, but the overall talent gutting (plus the opportunity cost of not acquiring more talent) is pretty significant.
And this doesn’t change for me if the results pan out. I’ll be glad it ‘worked’, but I still won’t like that the Org. went that way, and the result will be more luck-based than anything. But that’s also how they got Derrick Rose, and I wouldn’t take that back.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
me too
I’ll by happy as a fan if they end up with Bosh and someone good at SG. It doesn’t mean that all my hemming and hawing the past two years wasn’t justified, though.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Good points
As a multi-burned Bulls fan, I just see the writing on the wall and shudder to think about what we’ll be sold as the summer of 2011 approaches.
The Chicago Bulls: Clippers East, since 1999
Well explain to me why half the NBA is trying to do just that
Pat Riley, who knows a thing or two about winning titles decided to gut his team even further than the bulls. And do you really think the rockets’ future is that bright? I look at their team and see the bulls from 3-4 years ago. Yeah they’re good, but they’ll never win a championship because they just don’t have enough high-end talent.
7 /= half
And all those teams suck and have sucked.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Ignoring the teams that are in contention
I’d say about half the remaining teams at least tried to get into position for 2010. Not all of them got there, however.
ignoring the teams in contention eliminate the bulls and miami
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I mean in actual contention
And it makes sense to ignore those teams, because they’re obviously not going to gut their teams to build a championship-caliber core, since those teams have a championship-caliber core. The question at hand is whether gutting your team for a shot at 2010 makes sense for a teams like the bulls or the heat, which clearly don’t have enough to win a title right now. I think the answer is yes.
I don't know if he gutted his team
As much as he delayed the year when he’d be able to sign something new. I mean if given the opportunity of getting a Lebron, Bosh, Amar’e, STAT, Kobe and Dirk instead of going after a BG, Hedo, or Villanueva, what would you do?
He traded the expiring Marion for O’Neal’s huge, horrible contract, hoping O’Neal could give just enough for the playoffs and they could skate by a bit to make a run to add a superstar for Wade or if Wade bolts have money for 2….
That was a suave move….especially considering he really gutted his team back int he big Memphis and Walker trade before.
Had Beasley been close to what was projected of him on draft day at this point, Miami would be more than golden now.
Ok Stacey I'm am so sick of hearing the "Hard Hat and Lunch Pail" nickname for Taj. Enough already, wasn't funny the first time, but you now say it 15-20 times per broadcast. It's enough to make me want to hate Taj, when I don't hate Taj.
If you think we gutted our team, you can't possibly say miam didn't
Here are the players on miami’s roster that won’t hit free agency: Michael beasley, Mario chalmers, daequan cook.
Failing to acquire and retain talent is gutting your team.
They put all in
For the title, which they won, then tried to save face with Marion to get back some respectability, which didn’t work—he was expiring last year and they traded him at the deadline last year for O’Neal’s by then terrible contract, so they deferred the FA year from last year’s weak class to be a big piece of this year’s HUGE class.
Ok Stacey I'm am so sick of hearing the "Hard Hat and Lunch Pail" nickname for Taj. Enough already, wasn't funny the first time, but you now say it 15-20 times per broadcast. It's enough to make me want to hate Taj, when I don't hate Taj.
Okay and how is that different then what the bulls are doing (besides the title from 5 years ago)?
They passed up a shot at a free agent last year (BG) partially in hopes of getting a free agent this year. Theo NLT other player they gave away was salmons, who was acquired partially to move nocioni’s contract. That trade also moved drew gooden, who would’ve taken been off the books this year, but by trading him, they essentially deferred their salary flexibility to 2010
The title is kind of a big difference, wouldn't you say?
Ok Stacey I'm am so sick of hearing the "Hard Hat and Lunch Pail" nickname for Taj. Enough already, wasn't funny the first time, but you now say it 15-20 times per broadcast. It's enough to make me want to hate Taj, when I don't hate Taj.
Seriously
What’s the worst that can happen if they miss out on the playoffs? Rose, Deng and Noah missing out on some of that precious playoff experience? Free agents think that the Bulls aren’t on the way up? Seems like some more made up media garbage if you ask me.
Well the 'best playoff series ever' was made up media garbage too
but that seems to have had traction.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
I'm worried about our stretch coming up
I mean we’ve got a strugglign for a playoff race Memphis team against our injuries….
That might be 1 Loss,
We’ve got Dallas, Utah, Orlando which all are in the should be losses (giving us what 6 straight).
Then we head to Miami to play the fighting for a playoff Heat team that we should win, but ya know it’s ont he road and we’re not healthy…., make than 7 straight losses.
Then we’ve got Memphis-Dallas-Cleveland again….and with us not being healthy that could be 10 straight losses.
Then we play Philly on the road in a game we should win…but ya know we’re bad on the road esp against bad teams….
So we have every right to predict an 10-11 game losing streak.
Noah was a key component of our OT win against the Blazers…..and now with him out and Deng hurting and Rose hurting (Though looking good) and a tough schedule….we may find ourselves on the outside looking in….
I hope this doesn’t happen, but I am really worried about it. That Pacers and Wizards losses really hurt…..
Ok Stacey I'm am so sick of hearing the "Hard Hat and Lunch Pail" nickname for Taj. Enough already, wasn't funny the first time, but you now say it 15-20 times per broadcast. It's enough to make me want to hate Taj, when I don't hate Taj.
Ok Debbie Downer
And then nobody will want to sign with us, and Tyrus will probably be MVP next year, Noah will have to get his foot amputated, Derrick Rose will probably get kidnapped or something, Taj will develop attitude problems and become a cancer, and VDN’s hair will lose it’s perk.
hard pail lunch hat
by headphones on Mar 4, 2010 1:37 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Seriously.
With all the pessimism displayed in this blog you would think we were Seattle Bulls. The Bulls are only 31-29. Oh noes! Get the razor blade! I am guessing people come after their Prozac wears off.
We could go on an 8 game streak
And things would be all hunky-dory here. “Ya know, Taj isn’t so bad afterall, and hey, Brad’s still got something left in him, and maybe we’ve been a little hard on Kirk…” but next game they drop, it’s business as usual.
hard pail lunch hat
oh, you were seriously
oh, your sig.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 4:14 PM CST up reply actions
actually I just got your sig as a joke in itself
so I don’t know what to think.
I think I was fairly optimistic in this post, but whatever I try not to frame it as a state of mind, but an actual assessment.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 4:15 PM CST up reply actions
To be fair, there were some signs of optimism in the OP as opposed the typical 2012- world-is-going- to- end posts.
Are the Bulls really that bad? Sure, they aren’t going to win the championship this year but the same could be said for 28 other teams. The Bulls are now in a position to sign a top tier free agent. Wasn’t that the main goal coming into the season? We all knew this was going to be a throw away year and that TT wouldn’t be signed.
Just because it was known doesn't make it much less depressing
so you’re not optimistic about this season either, just ambivalent. I guess that’s why you’re concerned with other people being down instead of providing your own reasons for excitement.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 4:39 PM CST up reply actions
People are entiltled to their opinions. All I am trying to say is that
I don’t see anything to warrant the amount of pessimism that is often seen here. I think we can agree that Rose’s and Noah’s development is grounds for some optimism. Was I disappointed that the Bulls traded TT? Yes, but I don’t harbor any resentment towards management for making that move as some here seem to do. The Bulls are in a position to make the playoffs. I think that’s more than most people could have expected at the beginning of the season, especially the Bulls were 10-17.
why? the Bulls made the playoffs last season
The Bulls are in a position to make the playoffs. I think that’s more than most people could have expected at the beginning of the season, especially the Bulls were 10-17.
the Bulls have made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 seasons. They had a budding all-star at the beginning of the season and the return of Luol Deng. They play in the weaker of the two conferences. They took the defending champs to 7 games. Over 50% of the teams in the NBA make the playoffs. Some of the teams not making the playoffs in the East – Washington, NY, New Jersey, Philadelphia – are among the worst ran franchises in the NBA. Why would anyone expect anything less than the Bulls making the playoffs? Making the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference is the bare minimum.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 4, 2010 5:15 PM CST up reply actions
Talk about moving the goal posts.
At the beginning of the season many people predicted that the Bulls would have 35-37 wins, mostly due to losing BG and question’s about whether Deng would be fully healed from his stress fracture. The east may be bad but it’s not that bad. So, making the playoffs was anything but the forgone conclusion you make it out to be. However, if you predicted that the Bulls would be where they are now, then kudos to you.
I'm just saying the idea that Bulls fans should be happy
to make the playoffs as if it is some rare event is ridiculous. Many people also predicted the Bulls to win 42 games and improve. That is the funny thing about many people, sometimes they disagree.
8 out of 10 ESPN basketball writers predicted that the Bulls would make the playoffs, http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2009/news/story?page=Predictions0910-Bulls
The Bulls were picked to finish 6th by CNNSI. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/britt_robson/10/25/eastern.preview/1.html
And YFBB’s very own Yahoo Sports picked the Bulls to go 41-41 and to make the playoffs. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/BDL-s-2009-10-NBA-Preview-Chicago-Bulls?urn=nba,196021
I’ll leave it to you to find the great stable of Bulls doubters.
The fact is the Bulls make the playoffs all the time. It is not that hard for teams in the NBA to make the playoffs, especially if they are in the East. You seem to have a problem with people pointing out what they feel are errors from Bulls management. I’m sorry we can’t all share your optimism about the Bulls. They have been treading water for six years.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 4, 2010 6:38 PM CST up reply actions
So basically the Bulls have met expectations.
So why all the pessimism? I have no problems with people pointing out errors by Bulls management and you guys often bring up some good points but do you really need retread all their wrongs ad nauseum? Yes, VDN and Pargo suck. I might have forgotten that if someone didn’t mention it at least ten times a day. Everyone on the team can’t be an all-star and most teams have bad contracts. Anyways, I think you get the point.
Not a dig on the OP
More of the general vibe sometimes. Bulls fans are en emotionally fragile bunch.
hard pail lunch hat
not seriously?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 4, 2010 4:13 PM CST up reply actions
don't know what's going on here
I still believe that within those limits they did a good job.
i think that they’ve done a piss poor job.
the roster should be:
rose
deng
noah
thomas
blair
sefolosha
miller
possible “spare parts” – murray, warrick, daniels, house, gray
that roster is sitting pretty:
a) makes the playoffs
b) is good for a possible 2010 fa
c) is good news for a “frugal” owner.
this roster? not so much. and the coach is not good.
"Let's do some living... after we die"
That rosters not head and shoulders above what we have now
Sure it would’ve been nice to have gotten Blair, but a lot of other teams passed on him too. And it can be argued that taj is better. And the book on james johnson hasn’t been written yet. Plus, we won’t be able to say whether the TT trade is a good one or not until we find out what draft pick we get. And as for sefolosha, meh.
cross out
murray for alexander i guess, but it’s not the point really.
"Let's do some living... after we die"
Looking at the rest of the schedule this season
I’d say the Bulls probably win 9 games, and lose the other 13.
So, my prediction is the Bulls will end-up with a record of 40-42.
Haha "save us Derrick Rose!" mode
I loved that
RIP Jim Thome 1-25-2010
an AL team not having a DH is like a giraffe fucking a mule. - larry
How could
they have gutted the team any more? Hinrich and Deng are the only other “problem” contracts. I don’t know who had enough expiring contracts to trade for them.
I don't know what I insist in this but
Deng’s not a problem
by JustAnotherFan on Mar 4, 2010 5:19 PM CST up reply actions
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