Rose, Taj, JJ recent PERs (A Feel-Good Post)
by YaoPau on Mar 26, 2010 6:15 PM CDT
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PrintI figured - as a diversion from the Bulls' recent run of crap - I'd spread some cheer with a trusty tonic: cherrypicked stats. In this case, concerning our only three healthy players that actually matter.
Because some might look at this season's PER for Derrick (18.3), Taj (13.5), and JJ (10.7) and think "overrated" or "scrub". But cherrypick the numbers arbitrarily and convert them to Per36, and, well... hmm. Maybe it'll help you forget about Jannero Pargo for a second. Here are the numbers:
(Note: I used a regression to estimate PER. Standard error is 0.44.)
Derrick Rose Per36 since January 9th (33 games)
22.2pts, 3.8reb, 5.5ast, 0.7stl, 0.2blk, 2.6tov, 1.2pf, .551 TS% -> 20.0 PER
Derrick Rose Per36 since February 3rd (21 games)
22.2pts, 3.6reb, 5.6ast, 0.6stl, 0.2blk, 2.6tov, 1.1pf, .563 TS% -> 20.3 PER
(For some reason I thought Rose really turned it up recently. Not so.)
Taj Per36 since February 16th (20 games)
12.9pts, 10.8reb, 1.7ast, 0.9stl, 1.7blk, 2.4tov, 4.3pf, .567 TS% -> 15.9 PER
JJ Per36 since February 17th (19 games)
13.7pts, 6.3reb, 2.8ast, 1.2stl, 2.4blk, 2.8tov, 5.7pf, .617 TS% -> 14.9 PER
Mmm that cherry flavor! JJ still fouls too much, Taj's usage hasn't increased a lick despite the injuries, and Rose has been just a 20 PER guy with mediocre defense -> still not a star yet. I expected Rose's PER splits to be better.
On the other hand, JJ's passing and scoring efficiency have been awfully nice, as has Taj's rebounding since the first two months. Considering the general opinion here that Taj and JJ are at least decent defensively, those are strong numbers for rookies over a quarter chunk of the season. And Rose at a .563 TS% without a 3pt shot (and with just 4.5 FTA) is really impressive for a PG with his usage.
So there. Mildy happy again? Big picture, we know Noah and Deng will be solid, and we know Rose will be an all-star fixure. But Taj and JJ will be around for the next three+ years too. If nothing else, I'll be watching these last eleven games hoping their recent runs aren't flukes. Going six deep with a mid-1st rounder and cap space for a max... not all that bad :)
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Didn't Rose leave two of the most recent 21 games in the first quarter,
both against the Magic? Maybe that’s why his numbers are similar to those 36 game numbers, as I also thought he turned it up recently.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Good stuff Yao
Although I don’t know how much better I feel:( I was really curious to know Derrick’s numbers since around then, so that was pretty sweet. Although I’ve gotta say, I thought they’d be a little better. I’m not too good with advanced stats, but like you said, that TS% with no 3 pt shoot and and a pretty small amount of FTA seems pretty damn impressive
Neil takes the fun out of funk
It's his conversion on short-range shots (anything within 8 feet that's not a layup). 58%.
He’s better than any PG in the league, even Wade doesn’t come close (he’s around 50%).
What’s distressing is that his FG% on attempts at the rim has dropped, and he’s increased his number of long two attempts. Guy needs to spend the summer watching tapes of flopping, or that Wade “fall down 7 get up 8” commercial.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 26, 2010 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps one is related o the other
The fact that he’s shot and made so many 2 point jump shots, has kinda kept him from going to the rim which has caused him to be a little rusty and convert less… maybe?
Neil takes the fun out of funk
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 26, 2010 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Here are some numbers I grabbed off RealGm
BrooklynBulls wrote:For my own idle interests, stats by month with some augmentations:
Oct-Nov…: 15gp, 15.6 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.0 rpg, .500 TS%, 34.9 mpg
December: 15 gp, 20.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.8 rpg, .494 TS% 37.1 mpg
January…: 15gp, 23.1 ppg, 6.4 apg, 4.4 rpg, .534 TS%, 37.3 mpg
February.: 13gp, 23.6 ppg, 5.6 apg, 4.3 rpg, .567 TS%, 38.7 mpg
March….: 6gp, 25.5 ppg, 6.7 apg, 3.0 rpg, .580 TS%, 39.2 mpg
Augmentations are: Oct/Nov combined, 2 Magic games removed. Tell me that isn’t an amazing narrative of his season.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 26, 2010 8:02 PM CDT reply actions
I don't know why you don't see the 20 PER mark as "star" material
Deron Williams’ Per is 20.59
Rondo 19.43
Billups 21.15
Roy 21.47
Nash 21.64
At 20.3 since February, he is playing right with the top point guards in the league not named Chris Paul (25.36). If he gets to the free throw line a bit more, hands out a few more assists, starts hitting 3’s, he is right there with the best.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 26, 2010 8:15 PM CDT reply actions
I think it's because he still plays below average defense.
One might say that about Nash, but then I don’t know if most would call him a “star” except on offense.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
All the above guards besides Billups and Nash play below average defense.
Throw Tony Parker and Baron Davis in the mix, that’s two more guards who’ve had 20+ PER seasons with middling defensive skills.
We need to make the distinction between star PG and star player. Because one implies Deron Williams, the other Chris Paul. Does anyone really doubt Rose will reach that 21-22 PER mark in a year or so? I think all the qualms like in whether he could ever take the next leap into 24+ territory.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 27, 2010 1:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I think he's been playing pretty decent defense recently.
He’s definitely getting around screens a lot better and fighting through more screens.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 28, 2010 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Only 2 of the top 20 in PER are PGs.
3 of the top 30 and 4 of the top 40. A good point, and a criticism of PER I haven’t heard before (maybe I just haven’t been reading enough).
PER doesn’t take position into account, so point guards are disproportionately penalized. Guys playing around the basket are naturally going to have higher rebound rates and TS%. Point guards are naturally going have better AST%. But, the PER formula weights rebounds and TS% much more than AST%. So, PER is always going to underrate point guards.
The one thing that makes me uneasy about PER is that it is not empirically derived. Hollinger just corrected for pace and weighted the traditional box score stats how he deemed fit. It’s good, but there is some room for improvement.
by NPR1998 on Mar 27, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I'd distinguish guys in the high teens/low twenties and guys in the high twenties
There’s lots of “stars” in the NBA. There’s usually only about 3-5 guys that are above 25 in a given year, and only a couple of them are consistently above 25ish.
YaoPau - I apologize if this is an obvious question....
but what variables did you use in the regression?
I am new to these basketball data and am a bit of stat geek...
so I’m interested in running some models myself.
I'm interested in this too
Here is a link for how to calculate PER.
Would be interested to hear how YaoPau did it.
It's on another computer, I can get it Monday
Just converted numbers from a handful of NBA teams this year to Per36, then adjusted them so pace = 100. I used points, orebs, drebs, ast, blk, stl, pf, tov, TS% as independents, PER as dependent and used linest() in excel. .99 correlation, but it only works for this year’s stats because Hollinger changes them yearly.
More cherry picking good news!
Feel good news – Toronto loses at the buzzer. Carmelo hits a shot at the buzzer. Denver coming from 10 back in the last few minutes of the 4th quarter.
i'd be happier if Rose were at a 24 PER and Johnson/Gibson were worse.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
If he had more assists (read: better teammates) I'm sure his PER would shoot up.
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Mar 27, 2010 4:17 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Vinny needs to let Rose take some 3s
He hits them during warmups and had a decent % over those two games when he shot 13.
His PER would get a lot better if he shot more threes
Well he has been throwin up like 4 a game lately, Rose just doesnt have the shot yet.
don’t pin Rose’s inability to shoot on Vinny.
1 more week, just one more painfull week!
Most of those are at the end of the shotclock
He hasn’t had (or taken) any good opportunities. Rose is a very good shooter from 18-23 ft; there is no reason why he wouldn’t be a good 3 pt shooter.
I don't have the PER formula handy, but
after another great game by Taj, here’s his season broken into three groups. Per 36:
Games #1-15: 10.8pts, 8.1reb, 1.0ast, 1.1stl, 1.7blk, 2.2tov, 5.0pf, 48.2 TS%
Games 16-48: 12.4pts, 9.8reb, 1.0ast, 0.7stl, 1.5blk, 1.6tov, 4.9pf, 51.3 TS%
Games 49-75: 12.9pts, 11.2rb, 1.5ast, 0.9stl, 1.8blk, 2.1tov, 4.3pf, 56.2 TS%
Just a completely different level of basketball in the final third of the season. It could be an improvement from experience or taking more responsibility with Noah out, but seeing as how he’s dealt with plantar fasciitis all year, from sitting out games in summer league last July to missing back-to-back practices in January to missing practice as recently as March 10th, it could also have to do with him healing. And who knows if he’s 100% healthy yet, though it could be what we’re seeing now with five double-doubles in his last six games.
After seeing Curry, Fizer, and Tyrus have good stretches at times with the Bulls, I’m not going to push the he’s-awesome button prematurely. But I think he’s done enough to wonder if he’s more than a Joe Smith part deux. 13pt, 11reb, 56.2 TS% with above-average defense = big time numbers if his recent stretch is any indication of how good he really is.
by YaoPau on Apr 2, 2010 9:42 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Good stuff, YP.
I’m still bitter about Tyrus’ ouster, but Taj has been really great over this stretch, so it makes me feel less bad about it. And I really do like Taj, I just hated what he stood for within the organization when he was being played over Tyrus despite being outproduced, but maybe these recent results prove the Bulls FO / Vinny right with respect to the Taj v. Tyrus debate?
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 2, 2010 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Crazy thought
Maybe Reinsdorf doesn’t care about the hustle vs talent arguments or any of that. Maybe his reasons for acquiring and retaining the players he has has to do with something that’s initially logical.
The most undervalued type of good player according to APM is the average offensive, good defensive type, like Marcus Camby, Luol Deng, Andrei Kirilenko, etc etc. Those guys consistently rate out as Top 50 players despite being seen as semi-stars. And after watching the game intently for 35 years, maybe Reinsdorf picked up on that.
Well that type of player was Hinrich and Noc, and that is Deng, Noah and now Taj. That was what Tyson, Tyrus and Thabo were meant to be. That’s what Crawford, Curry, and Gordon weren’t and they were all dumped in their prime. D’Antoni went to NYC because Reinsdorf didn’t believe in his defensive scheme. And Reinsdorf has always said his favorite Bulls team was the ‘94 team after Jordan left. The team’s o-rating ranked 14th, their defense 6th.
Just tossing this out there. We’re all focusing on Amare/Boozer/Lee as big man options after Bosh. But none of those are what the organization has stood for, and there’s very little track record of the Bulls investing heavily in a purely offensive player. Plus I can’t see Reinsdorf investing another huge sum of money into a player who could easily break down after the Ben Wallace debacle. Nobody has talked about the cheaper, shorter contract options of Kenyon Martin, Brendan Haywood or Jermaine O’Neal…
While it makes sense to acquire undervalued assets and get a lot of them, you still need offense. You can't
win a title with a league average offense, unless you have an all-time great defense and even then…still pretty tough to do. So while that strategy might make some sense as a general rule, getting rid of every offensive dynamo makes very little sense. I mean look at how much Stephen Jackson has helped the Bobcats. He’s not a great player or even a great offensive player, but for a team that was STARVING for offense, he was a near perfect fit. That’s the thing I think that gets left out of most of our statistical arguments more than anything. Fit matters tremendously. The Bulls need to bring in offensive help. This team was one of the top defensive units in the league prior to the injury bug striking / Tyrus dump. Tyrus isn’t coming back, but this team still has the pieces to be a top level defense, especially with continued improvement from our young players, particularly Rose. But this team has been a god awful offensive team all freaking year. The Bulls need the offense to get better and to maintain the status quo (when healthy) on defense.
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 3, 2010 1:40 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bulls through 27 games: 98.2 ORating, 106.1 DRating
Bulls in 48 games since: 106.0 ORating, 105.2 DRating
I agree fit gets left out a lot, but then again I’m not sure how to include it. But the Bulls aren’t a terrible offensive team, nor should we be. Rose is becoming an offensive star, and Deng/Taj/JJ/Noah have shown they’re capable of playing close to league average.
What if management went the route of trading Tyrus’s 1st for Ronnie Brewer (giving us another near-average O, good defense starter), then signed Amir/Haywood/Jermaine outright? Giving us a roster like this:
PG Rose
SG Brewer, Hinrich
SF Deng, JJ
PF Taj
C Noah, Jermaine
Plus a 1st and some likely cap space still to spend on a backup PG/PF. Rose/Brewer/Deng would have to keep developing a 3pt shot, but that’s a dominant defensive team that’s decent offensively.
The Bulls still need offensive help, though. Even with cherry picked stats (the last 48 games)
a 106 O-Rtg is below average (by 1.3 points per 100 possessions). League average is 107.3. Their DRtg in that time would still have left them at 11th in the league and it’s only 2 points better than league average.
So, basically they need help in both areas, BUT their offense is in much worse shape than their defense, so again, we need offensive help.
And again, to TRULY contend, you need to be at least above average offensively with the dominant defense (or vice versa), you can’t be just “decent” on either of them to truly contend.
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 3, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that's it
They’re better defensively than offensively now, but they need help in both areas. Which makes sense considering they stink.
There’s a few exceptions to the truly contend thing (Detroit 04, Lakers 01, Rockets 94), but either way, if they miss out on Bron/Bosh/Wade they can throw out any chance of truly contending next year.
I do feel like you're cherry-picking names.
First, I will say that scorers are pretty generally overrated and overpaid. The converse would be that non-scorer’s are underrated and underpaid. That’s absolutely nothing new. For someone cheap, you’d want to get the underrated players more than the overrated players, obviously. That’s the whole point of Money Ball. I don’t think “avoiding scoring stars” is all that much of a thought-through plan.
As far as APM, out of “the names you wouldn’t expect to see in the Top 50 of APM”, I a see just as many Rashard Lewises, Tony Parkers and Danilo Galinaris as I do Chris Andersons, Lamar Odoms and Anderson Verajaos.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I'm looking at 4 year APMs
Not sure how Galinari compares, but Lewis and Parker are both multi-time allstars so I’d expect them to be Top 50.
which APMs are you looking at then?
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 3, 2010 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Even if true, it wouldn't be because of Reinsdorfs' enlightened views on APM
it’s more his unenlightened view of ‘defense (and character!) win championships’
USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 5, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
This is true. The Bulls are one of the remaining teams that doesn't have an advanced statistician
on their payroll. I believe almost all of the ones that have hired these guys are in the playoffs this year or are on a significant upswing (see: Memphis), aside from Indiana and Houston. So, there’s 15 teams that are employing guys to do this analysis (half the league) and 12 of them are playoff teams as of right now.
I think the Bulls need to get on it. Another indication that they don’t look at this analysis is their obsession with long mid range jumpers which makes me think it has more to do with Reinsdorf’s preferred version of basketball to watch which resembles the 1970s basketball with lots of midrange jumpers because of the absence of the 3 point line. It’s dumb strategy.
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 5, 2010 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
woops that link didn't work.
Kirk Hinrich sucks. The end.
by fundamentallysound on Apr 5, 2010 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
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