And now for something completely different
by Sports2 on Mar 21, 2010 8:07 PM CDT
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PrintThat title could go in almost direction. Well, not in the direction of Vinny unexpectedly rewarding a young player like Thabo Sefalosha Joakim Noah Tyrus Thomas James Johnson Acie Law IV with continued play over a dead end like Larry Hughes Aaron Gray Andres Nocioni Jannero Pargo or Flip Murray, but still in lots of directions.
But details aside, the big something completely different is finally getting a win and breaking a 10 game skid. That Derrick Rose seems to be a difference-maker, huh? In your face jamaica876! And Noah's return, although shorter and off the bench, was pretty darn good too. Because his injury is one that often recurs, the most important news of the night might be KC's tweeting a Noah quote:
Noah: "My foot felt great. My lungs felt terrible."
This win obviously didn't get us over the top, but it probably kept us in the race as the Raptors beat the Nets last night. With our two best players back, I have some hope that we can close the gap, but we're still pretty far behind with not that many games left.
And now that we've talked about the game that was, how about we talk about the big game to come: free agency. One thing that's kind of stunk from a fan perspective is that, now that the Bulls actually sealed the deal and cemented themselves in max cap-space land, there's not all that much to talk about. There's a lot of anticipation, of course, but not that much grist for discussion in that anticipation. We know who the big targets are, we've looked at the evidence and concluded Joe Johnson is a disaster waiting to happen, we're more or less waiting to see what happens.
So I guess my big question is... is it really all settled? Do we really sit on our hands waiting for free agency to start? One thing I was pretty interested to see today was that the Jazz might be entertaining re-signing Carlos Boozer. I'm a little skeptical of this, but ok, lets run with it. Were the Jazz to do it, they're probably over the luxury tax again with the last year of AK-47's deal sitting there, so they probably need some way to get under it. Also, they have the Knicks pick in the lottery. So this got me to thinking. Would the Jazz consider giving up that lottery pick to unload $18M worth of Andrei Kirilenko? My hometown Pacers are in an even worse jam. They suck and are due to be paying the tax next year without some major cleanup on aisle TJ Ford and Mike Dunleavy Jr. And oh yeah, they're going to have a high lottery pick.
So would either of those teams give up their pick to escape the tax? Would we give up our cap room to get Evan Turner or Derrick Favors? By the way the former looked great beating the latter today, looked pedestrian.
And as a final note, thank you to yfbb for the opportunity to write stuff for you guys this week, and thanks to you guys for being a good group of guys and gals who've been fun to read and learn from over the years. I'd definitely get up of my couch, walk a few feet and call 911 if I saw most of you on fire in the street.
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there is absolutely no way the Jazz would consider making that trade
to keep Carlos Boozer. And no way the Bulls give up on 2010 to draft any lottery pick not named John Wall (and even than, I still have my doubts). The only way the Bulls get to the top of the lottery is by winning the lottery themselves.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 21, 2010 8:21 PM CDT reply actions
Evan Turner
Looks every bit as much of a player as Brandon Roy or a young Wade. On a rookie contract.
I suppose it’s a matter of certainty on this, but suppose Roy were a FA. Where would he rank compared to the current crop? After Lebron, sure, but I’m not 100% sure he wouldn’t be second on the list.
I agree
I think the Bulls would consider making the trade with the Jazz if Evan Turner become available. Though, I dont think the Jazz will agree to such a trade if they happen to get a top-3 pick, at least not during the draft. Remember there will be a lot of teams with cap space available, and many of them will strike out in their pursuit of LBJ. The Jazz will probably wait until after the FA period settles, and see which team still has cap space left over. Then the Jazz could offer Kirilenko or maybe Paul Millsap in trade in order to get some cap relief.
Yeah, I tend to think that's the kicker. The Bulls ain't gonna turn down a deal for Turner.
I wouldn’t trade him were I the Jazz or Pacers though.
Roy<<<<<<<Wade
That isn’t even a debate.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 21, 2010 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions
That debate is settled then.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
it was a master debate.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 22, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I love to master debate.
Luol Deng 24 going on 54.
by SoulEater7 on Mar 22, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
polo is the master debater, then.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Rose >>>>> Roy
and with a 3pt shot to soon be in his repertoire, soon to be >>> Wade
what tells you he will ever have a 3pt shot?
2010 WhiteSox Baseball: "even if it works it's still stupid"
What tells you he won't?
He’s only 21 and in one offseason has improved his outside shooting tremendously. I’m not just basing it on the last game where he hit 4 3s but based on his learning curve, I see no reason why he can’t develop a decent 3pt shot. If Scottie Pippen can develop a 3pt shot, there’s no reason Rose can’t. It’s taken Wade years to develop any consistent outside shot. Jason Kidd never did. But I think Rose has shown such a quick learning curve at such a young age that I believe he will add the 3pt shot.
Jason Kidd is shooting .417 from 3pt land this season.
So maybe it just took him a long time.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 22, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Kidd is shooting that percentage because he's taking more wide open shots.
As a standalone shooter he’s still average, but he has way better looks with the Mavs.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 22, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
He will eventually. Hit at least one or 2 a.game.
I was right in the beginning of the season when people was bashing Rose when he was injured when I said that he will be a superstar when others dont think that he will be.
Rose is not that much better than Roy.
They’re in the same conversation, which is impressive on its own.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 22, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
You brought it up.
I just answered your query.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 22, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Context is a wonderful thing
See, in the context of saying “Gee, Evan Turner looks like a hell of a prospect, and perhaps comparable to Brandon Roy or Dwyane Wade”, maybe we could use our position to get him, then talking about Wade vs. Roy is fairly irrelevant.
The point I was making is that they’re both extremely good players who we’d be lucky to get. If the only point to you is to quibble over which of those two extremely good players are better, even though in reality we aren’t getting either, I think your only point is to quibble and demonstrate the extent of your knowledge is hitting the “<” key on your keyboard a lot.
I'm not taking anything out of context.
You directly stated that you think Brandon roy might be no.2 on the fa list behind lebron and, therefore, ahead of Wade.
“I suppose it’s a matter of certainty on this, but suppose Roy were a FA. Where would he rank compared to the current crop? After Lebron, sure, but I’m not 100% sure he wouldn’t be second on the list.”
if you didn’t want a response to that statement, you shouldn’t have made it.
Brad Miller is god.
My response is that you continue to miss the point
But if you can’t figure out why a team might at least consider a guy who’s bigger, 3 years younger, injured much less frequently and nearly as good, then I agree, there’s not much to discuss.
Fine I will go into detail and explain why it's no contest between Roy and Wade
First off, Roy missed a pretty big chunk of games his rookie year so saying he’s injured much less frequently is a bit of an exaggeration. Wade’s been almost completely healthy the last couple years (including this one).
Second, Wade’s numbers are much better across the board. Wade has a .563 career TS% which edges Roy’s .556. This isn’t that huge, but when you consider that Wade has had a much higher USG5 (32.7 to 25.8), it shows that Wade is clearly a much more effective scorer. His AST% is also much higher (34.9 to 24.8). He’s got a higher STL% (2.6 to 1.6) and his BLK% is 4 times as high (2.0 to 0.5). He does have a higher TOV% (14.2 to 9.7), but that ratio is almost exactly the same as the ratio comparing the two players’ USG%s, suggesting that the increased number of turnovers is solely caused by the fact that he handles the ball that much more.
Finally, if you’re a big believe in intangibles, Wade has a ring, proving he’s capable of leading a team to a championship. This is just sort of a bonus point, IMO, but it doesn’t hurt Wade’s cause.
Brad Miller is god.
Yes, in the abstract I'd certainly take Wade over Roy.
In more concrete terms:
1. Wade plays more physical. His game relies on getting knocked down and getting free throw attempts much more than Roy’s. That’s likely to cause more problems for Wade as he ages.
2. Wade is 3 years older, and likely has at least three less seasons of prime basketball in him than Roy. Imagine a deal signed this summer. You get Roy at ages 26-31 and Wade at ages 28-33. I’d certainly concede Wade is better now, but Roy will probably get a bit better and Wade will probably tail off a lot.
3. As far as style of play, Wade absolutely dominates the ball when he’s on the court. He doesn’t shoot 3s very well. How do you see this actually working out with Derrick Rose. Nobody would, for example, propose Shaq and Yao Ming would make a very good combination, even though they’re both very good players, because it’s obvious they’re somewhat incompatible with each other in their style of play. Why do people think differently when it comes to guards who have obviously similar styles of play. This is somewhat true of a guy like Roy, but nowhere close to the same extent.
Wade absolutely dominates the ball partly because he hasn't been surrounded by good perimeter talent.
The best PG he’s played next to has been a past-his-prime Jason Williams. I’d believe he’d play off the ball more with Rose next to him. And even if they were truly incompatible, I’d rather sign Wade and trade Rose for someone like Blake Griffin (I know this is fantasy, but I’m just looking for a young player of comparable talent at a different position, and he came to mind) than sign Roy.
And since you brought it up, I don’t think a Yao-Shaq combo would actually be that bad. Stick Yao in the high post and put Shaq in the low block on the other side, and that’d be a very interesting lineup to watch. I’m not sure it absolutely couldn’t work.
Brad Miller is god.
good news: early espn game is great tonight. bad news: this is about the 50th ATL game ive
seen where i say to myself, “if the bulls get joe johnson for max/near max i will never stop vomiting.”
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
by TheMoon on Mar 21, 2010 9:50 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Warning: 2k10 Anecdote Ahead!!
I actually ended up trading for ak47 in 2k10 once i had bosh, but i did it near the trade deadline in the 2010-2011 season. The reasons were this, deng kept getting injured, when he wasnt injured i didnt really need him at all, i basically ran my offense through bosh rose and my third option was actually Noah. Deng was averaging 12 pts per game, and i found myself trying to force him to get shots just cuz i wanted him to have 20pts. Also more athletic sfs kept getting past deng for dunks and such. So i traded for ak and a future round 1 draft pick, ak was alright, could shoot his threes and the ai made him play defense a bit better…i basically didnt resign ak after the season ended and cleared tons of capspace for the offseason…..
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
I Love Bosh in 2k10
He always plays well , can get to the paint and run the floor, get to the free throw line, shoot mid range jumper…good hands
yea he cant back anyone down
but i usually run a quick post up play with him, throw the ball down to him, make him dribble (but he cant back down his defender) then tap RT, which causes him to do a quick half spin, then i just turn that into a hook, its pretty effective (in fact i added that move to my own basketball repertoire cuz its so simple and effective), or i run the pick and pop and fades like the bulls do with brad and taj.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 22, 2010 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Yer
Its weird when u can run a pick and pop with a player on the bulls team that can actually be effective. Its almost adictive because we havnt seen it for years. I do alot of times just to satisfy myself and almost think to myself " wow wont bosh be good if he was at the bulls"
thats hilarious
that Deng gets injured in the game as well. Well done nba2k10 on your estimation skillz!
If Joe Johnson is the 2nd coming of an old Jalen Rose, who is left? Rudy Gay & David Lee?
GAY & LEE is probably a lot more realistic considering the Vinny/Reinspaxdorf problem.
Anticipating a Rose-Gay-Noah-Lee-Deng lineup is more realistic than Lebro n-Bosh-Rose-Wade-Amare next year anyway.
(and say hello to future 2nd round playoff exits for the next 3 years!)
by KentuckyBullsFan on Mar 21, 2010 10:59 PM CDT reply actions
Rudy Gay hasn't played SG all year...
…and he’s never played it a significant amount of time in any season.
I’m not saying he can’t do it, just that it’s a huge risk.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I would rather have David Lee...
than Carlos Boozer…especially if Lee could be had for less than $12M per…(which may be wishful thinking). They are having similar seasons, Lee an All-Star, but Lee is two years younger without the injury history.
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
I can't see how we could afford Gay and Lee
Memphis and New York wouldn’t take on Hinrich’s contract, and they’ll each sign for over $10 mil per year apiece.
I like Dorell Wright or Shannon Brown for a possible cheap starting SG. Their PERs are 13.4 and 12.8, they’re both really athletic former 1st round picks, and they’re just 24. They’ve also shown some ability to hit the 3, and they’re unrestricted FAs so we wouldn’t have to give up anything more than the cost of their cheap contract. Who knows, they develop a 3 point stroke and we get ourselves a bargain. If not, they can still give us 20mpg as a usable piece.
watching portland choke away a winnable game on national tv is much more pleasurable
than watching the bulls get blown out on national tv.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
anyone else get the feeling
that lebron and wade arent coming, so its bosh or bust…i mean lee, joe, boozer, even amare, gay, non of them really seem to make me think “if he were on the bulls we’d be a powerhouse” bosh however, i can see things being much different with bosh…
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
I want to see Rose and Bosh run the pick and roll.
I think it would be a thing of beauty.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 22, 2010 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
i dont think think bosh is a rolling type of guy
or if he did roll, it would end with him trying to do a quick mid-post move. Amare is awesome at the pick and roll i think because of the sheer explosiveness he has, bosh doesnt have that same explosion.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 22, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
He would have to learn
if he wanted to get himself plenty of dunks instead of plenty of 10 footers.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 22, 2010 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
pick and pop?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
wouldnt it be more of a pick and fade?
Pick and roll=Player sets pick then goes towards the basket
Pick and Pop=Player sets pick then goes towards the 3 point line
Pick and Fade=Player sets pick and then takes a step back for a midrange shot
although i wouldnt surprised if bosh also became our most consistant 3pt shooter after rose….
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
the way ive been taught the pick and fade
was as a variation of the pick and pop. in a pick and pop, you pop out towards the three point line, in a fade you fade back for a jumper, i guess the best way to explain it might be watching brad miller. When he runs screens with rose he often pops to the three point line (thus opening up the entire middle for rose so if brad doesnt have a shot he gives the ball back to rose within 20 feet where he can shoot or drive) however when he runs a similar play with hinrich he fades (takes just a single step back or to the side) and spots up for a jumper and hinrich usually runs behind the three point line so if the ball gets back to him hes on the per for a shot or run another play….
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 22, 2010 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
really?
hows hinrichs passion for the game doing? (see what i did there, you see dead people, and i personified hinrichs passion for the game as a person…which is dead….im clever)
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
I never took in the idea of trading for someone like Turner or Favors
But I gotta say, I’m not mad at the idea. I’m not sure if it’s possible but if they could take on some extra payroll, trade for one of the two and still have enough money to sigh a highly coveted free agent, that just maybe the way to go
maybe we deal for Milwaukee's bad contracts
and get our pick back :-p
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 22, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
how many times can Bulls
fans settle for this team going young? No more. Get a young vet who can play. I don’t want any part of Favors, Turner or Cousins if it means giving up on 2010
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe the Org. figures they'll settle for it until they don't.
They meaning we. We being dumb.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 22, 2010 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
well it's working with young players at OKC...but they have Durant.
(practically anything would work with Durant given time and a few small upgrades, which they’ve made…at center especially)
by KentuckyBullsFan on Mar 22, 2010 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Turner is going to be a great player and can surpass even Johnson.
You can get a great player like Turner and then sign a mid-tier free agent and still win 50 games +.
by Playboy_BullV on Mar 22, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Either:
1.James Johnson
2. Larry Johnson
3. Magic Johnson
4. Don Johnson
by KentuckyBullsFan on Mar 22, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I got pretty much the same response from folks back in 2006 when I suggested we offer Hinrich or Gordon for the chance to draft Roy
Gee, that would have turned out horribly!
I think the reality is that “going young” ain’t what it used to be. If you “go young” and do it wisely by getting super talented players, you’re going to do well. Young players who can actually play at a high level generally come in and do it fairly quickly.
Old players, on the other hand, fall off quick, are less motivated, and much, much more expensive. What’s adding a 29 year old guy going to accomplish when the rest of our team is full of 22 to 25 year olds? Rose/Deng/Noah is good enough to get somewhere with Joe Johnson for 2 years, they’ll be good enough to get somewhere with Evan Turner for 10 years.
I'm sorry people poo-pooed your fake trade that had no chance of happening
the Bulls could have picked Roy if they were interested in him. They had the #2 pick that year.
There are far too many variables at work to make the Joe Johnson – Evan Turner comparison valid. What if Turner turns out exactly like Joe Johnson? Well, than you get a great player from the start right? Of course, Joe Johnson has played for 3 different teams. What if Turner doesn’t meet the Bulls expectations, and he is only as good as Iguodala? Than 3 years you have to worry whether you should overpay to keep him. There are so many what ifs here
The Bulls have a chance to grab a huge star in summer of 2010. They have been making that move for 2 years. Getting Evan Turner, who isn’t a great fit with the personnel we have, and planning on winning 3 years down the line doesn’t appeal to me. Get Stoudemire, Bosh, James or Wade. Take your shot now. Than when Turner is bitching about his contract in 4 years you can make a run at him than.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
there's obviously a difference in who a team "goes young" for
Going young for John Wall or Evan Turner is different than going young for Cole Aldrich or Ed Davis.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
You need stars
Did anybody think Hinrich or Gordon or Deng or Noah had star potential coming out of college? Most had them pegged as solid, reliable starters, and that’s what they’ve become.
Superstar talents don’t come around often. Tyrus and Rose were the only ones Paxson has drafted (and Tyrus was iffy the same way Tyson Chandler was iffy). This year I’d list Turner, Cousins, Wall as bonafide superstar talents, and I’d much rather have one of them than anyone outside LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
Maybe this isn’t exactly what you were saying, but I don’t agree with the belief that after a decade of going young and failing, it’s better to get Amare/Boozer/Johnson than go young again. The NBA is set up to win through the draft, and I think the 2010 draft is a great one.
The problem with the Bulls past Go Young plans isn’t that the strategy is bad, it’s that we kept getting great picks in crappy drafts. We had the #4 and #7 pick in a 2000 draft that began with Kenyon Martin and Stromile Swift. We had the #2 and #4 picks in the 2001 draft that didn’t have a college player taken until pick #5. Jay Williams was our #2 pick in 2002, and he was followed by Dunleavy, Gooden, Tskitishvili, and Dajuan Wagner.
The two best drafts of the past decade have been 2003 (when we crapped out in the lottery and got the #7 pick) and 2005 (we were competitive then and gave up our 1st to get Luol a year earlier). Some of the high picks in those years: LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul, Carmelo, Bosh, Bogut, Deron Williams, Andrew Bynum. Oy.
Who knows if we even have a shot at a top pick this year, but dear lord imagine a nucleus of Rose/Deng/Cousins/Noah going forward. I can understand the frustration of years of failed picks, and there’s no guarantee that Wall/Cousins/Turner will become stars, but the Fizers/Crawfords/Williamses/Tyruses weren’t 6’11" 270lbers putting up a 37 PER as freshmen.
by YaoPau on Mar 22, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
to be fair
cousins is sort of like a timebomb, i mean maybe some team, some coach could prevent the boom, but i dont think its gonna be the bulls, i dont think it will be vdn. I could totally see cousins going through the stephon marbury treatment as opposed to ron artest
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
First of all, this is all mental masturbation, b/c the Bulls aren't getting a top 3 pick
If Jay Williams didn’t have star billing coming out of Duke, no one did. He is example of how a star player in college can fail to meet expectations. Are you telling me all the guys you listed were guaranteed stars coming out of college? Did people even know who Bosh was? Bogut wasn’t even considered a top level talent until this year. Bynum???
There is no guarantee Cousins is going to be better than Boozer or Amar’e or anyone else in the next 3 years. And when you consider the baggage that comes with the pick, I can’t believe people would be willing to give up on 2010 for that guy. The hype of college basketball springs eternal.
You absolutely need stars to win. A bunch of them are free agents this summer. As far as I can tell, Turner and Cousins aren’t stars yet, and may never become stars. They may be the latest Randolph or Tyrus or Jay Williams. I know Bosh, Wade, James and Stoudemire can play. I wouldn’t give up a chance to get them to get a rookie who may or may not make the Bulls contenders 3 or 4 years down the line.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
What are you giving up when you give up on 2010?
You’re not getting a superstar, or even a star with any certainty via free agency. So whatever you value, say, Dwyane Wade at, you’d have to discount it by the (high) probability he won’t come to the Bulls.
So if you value him at 100 smurf points, or whatever, his expected value is still only 10 smurf points if there’s only a 10% chance he comes here.
If there’s a 30% chance a guy like Turner becomes a 90 value player and a 50% chance he becomes a 50 and a 20% chance he’s a 0, that’s still an expected value of 52.
Overall, the best evidence of this is just how unlikely it is that any team would actually trade pick 2 or 3 to us. In your world of “youth sucks”, teams would be doing that all the time, no?
No player who’s never set foot on an NBA court is an automatic star, but a player like Turner looks like as solid a prospect as they come. Much like Wade or Roy as college players. So you discount his
i didn't say youth sucks
what i’m saying is the Bulls have been treading water for 2 years with the hopes of getting a superstar. You don’t throw that all away for Evan Turner or Cousins. Even if Turner fulfills your wildest imagination, he still is 2 or 3 years away from being a guy you can count on leading you far in the playoffs. In that time, you have to resign Noah and Rose, hope Deng doesn’t self-combust, hope that he doesn’t suffer any type of injury (hello back surgery), and than be willing to come to terms with Turner on a high priced contract. There are far more variables at stake than whether or not Turner becomes a productive player. Meanwhile James, Wade Bosh and Stoudemire are still in the league and still all better than Turner.
Say you get Stoudemire this year. Now you are prepared to take your shot at the upper echelon of the NBA. For 3 years that you were hoping Turner turns out, you’ll be actually competing.
I’m sick of waiting until next year. I’m sick of prospects. Why is Turner so guaranteed to turn out good? What makes him so much better than Beasley or OJ Mayo or Kevin Love? Why are we assuming he is going to be this transcendent talent? Would you give up on 2010 for Beasley? For OJ Mayo? For Love? What has Turner done that those guys did not do? Imagine the kind of year OJ Mayo or Kevin Love would be having in their 3rd year of college basketball. Would you give up 2010 for them?
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Since when is Amare "a guy you can count on leading you far in the playoffs"?
I don’t remember him ever leading his team to the NBA Finals despite being surrounded by all-stars. I actually don’t ever remember him leading his team. I remember him missing the playoffs two of the last four years with injury. He’s a #2/#3 player on a championship level team whose marketability is larger than his ability, and let’s not make him anything more than that.
So he’s a risk, arguably just as much a risk as Wall/Cousins/Turner, with a much lower upside and for $12 million more per year. After all, the success rate for prospects with their size, athleticism, and production I’d guess is pretty high.
As for your comparisons, OJ Mayo was a 6’3" SG with questionable athleticism with just okay production for a mediocre USC team as a 20 year old freshman. Beasley was a 6’8" PF in college with a small forward’s game. There were on-court red flags on both guys.
Love is a decent comparison because of his NBA size and production as a 19 year old, so let’s compare him to Cousins. Per 40 adjusted numbers:
6’9", 255lbs, 24.3pts, 14.8reb, 2.7ast, 2.0blk, 1.0stl, .65 TS%, 36.4 PER <- Love
6’11", 270lbs, 26.2pts, 16.6reb, 1.6ast, 3.0blk, 1.5stl, .58 TS%, 36.8 PER <- Cousins
Not bad, and I think we can agree it’s close with Cousin’s attitude possibly cancelling out his size and athleticism advantage. Kevin Love this year: 21.7 PER. Pretty close to Amare’s 22.1 PER, and for $13 mil less without the injury questions.
a lower upside? how is Amar'e upside lower than guys who haven't played in the NBA
He doesn’t have upside. he is just A’mare now.
How is a player who has made multiple all-star teams a greater risk than guys who haven’t played in the NBA. Is Turner going to be MVP? Is Cousins going to the hall of fame? Yeah, Turner and Cousins make less money, but if you had been paying attention, the whole premise of this is that you would have take on a player with a very bad contract to get that top 3 pick. So why would contract matter?
How is a guy who put up his numbers on a team that went to the Western Conference Finals compared to a guy who is playing for the 2nd worst team in the league, and who is not even starting. Healthy Amar’e has been to the Western Conference finals and lost in the 2nd round to the eventual champs. I would be estatic if the Bulls had that much success.
And of course there are no red flags for Cousins or Turner? Perfect prospects the two of them. I mean one of them has been repeatedly compared to Zach Randolph and Rasheed Wallace while the other had major back surgery in the middle of the season, dominates the ball and can’t shoot straight. Nope, those guys are perfect.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Are you making the case that team strength correlates with PER?
Pau Gasol switched teams and was just as effective. So was Kevin Garnett when he came to Boston, and Mo Williams when the moved to Cleveland. And if you want to play that game of Team Affects PER, Shawn Marion left Phoenix and Steve Nash midseason at age 29 and his PER dropped from 20 to 17 that same season.
So on one hand, you have Amare putting up a 22 PER and you’re calling him someone you can count on to lead you deep into the playoffs. Then you say Kevin Love (who’s putting up a 22 PER and is six years younger) isn’t worth losing out on 2010 for. And I don’t have the slightest clue what you’re basing that on.
Stats don’t lie. Bosh (25 PER) and Dwyane Wade (27 PER) are elite offensive players and play defense. Amare’s just not at their level, and it shows as his APM is consistently around 0 while those two are +7 to +10.
Fine, but 2010 involves a shot at getting someone better than Amare, with Amare/Boozer being the fallback option
Drafting Cousins is like having a shot at getting a player as good as Amare, with Eddy Curry being the fallback option (the scenario if he doesn’t live up to expectations).
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 22, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
eddie curry rebounds like a SG. cousins is maybe the best rebounder in the ncaa.
doubt thats going to magically fall apart. so hes like eddy curry if eddie is a great rebounder and more of a defensive presence in the paint. in other words, hes nothing like eddie curry.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
You're right about the rebounding, but Cousins probably isn't gonna be an elite defender
In terms of overall production, Cousins might end up being on a similar level as Eddy Curry.
Brad Miller is god.
as in, there is some probability above zero that his production
will be similar to eddy curry. but an eddy curry on offense who is a great rebounder and even marginally better on D has a much higher level of production than eddy curry.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
i actually said the opposite
having a high PER doesn’t necessarily correlate to team success. Just because Love has a high PER doesn’t mean he contributes to winning basketball.
The reason I said A’mare could help lead a team late in to the playoffs is because he has done it before, and he fits what the Bulls need (pick and roll player, good size, leads the NBA in points in the paint). You brought up PER, not me.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
and stats don't lie
but I don’t think Love is as good as A’mare, even if their PERs are similar. You can take that for what you will.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
....
OJ Mayo in one year of college averaged 20 pts, 4.5 reb and 3.3 assist. I guess that is “okay” production. I wonder what what he would have done when he was 21? He was also a top defensive player. I know, I watched USC play a lot that year and he totally dominated Bayless the two times they matched up.
Beasley averaged 26 pts and 12 rebounds and was National Player of the Year. But yeah, red flags galore. I guess that is why he was the 2nd pick.
Turner, 19, 9 and 6 as a junior. Obviously, his production far outraces theirs….
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at PER
Mayo I think had a 22 PER as a freshman. That’s the same as John Wall, except Wall was a year younger and will be a physical freak for his position in the NBA while Mayo is an undersized 2. Beasley and Turner had 32+ PERs, big difference.
you are totally missing my point
my point isn’t that these prospects aren’t any good. I think Turner and Cousins are excellent. My point is that they aren’t guaranteed to be good in the NBA. The fact that Turner and Beasley had similar PER proves my point! You may think Turner is going to be great. He may look great in college. But he may not turn out how you want. On the other hand, you have the chance to grab a free agent who is considerably better now and likely to be better in the future. You don’t give up that chance unless that prospect is can’t miss. I don’t think turner, cousins or favors qualify.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Proves?
Omar Samhan has the same PER as Beasley and he’s a 2nd round pick. I never used one stat to evaluate a player.
But you haven’t shown that Amare is considerably better (APM shows he’s a +0 and I think his peripherals show that’s likely a good estimate), nor have you shown that Amare will be better in the future. Your logic is “Amare is an all-star, college players are unproven, so Amare is better” when that leaves so much out.
once again, you brought up PER. You cited Turner's college PER
to stress the difference between he and Mayo. I noted that the guy with a similar PER, Beasley, didn’t set the world on fire in the NBA.
You don’t accept the fact that A’mare is on winning teams as evidence of him being good, or his multiple all-star appearances. You don’t accept the argument that he fits better. you don’t accept his PER or TS% or the fact that he leads the NBA in points in the paint or the fact that he is averaging 29pts and 10 rebs in March.
So I don’t understand how I would possibly prove anything to you. How would one go about proving that a player who has had multiple all-star appearances is better than someone who has never even played in the NBA but projects to be really good?
I can reasonably guess that A’mare will have a higher PER and TS% over the next 2 or 3 years than Turner, but I could never prove it. I can reasonably guess that he is going score to more points on the inside and work better in the pick and roll with Rose.
Because we’ve seen A’mare play in the NBA, we can guess how he would fit with the Bulls. That his defense and rebounding won’t matter as much with Noah and Deng. That his high level of efficient scoring is exactly what the 29th ranked NBA offense needs and would probably benefit the Bulls more than a rookie who plays on the perimeter and needs the ball in his hands. But those are all just guesses.
Of course, you haven’t bothered to prove that any of these prospects will be better than A’mare or that we should give up the chance to get Wade, James or Bosh to get them because they will be sooooo good. You haven’t shown that these guys are any thing other than a gamble. Which of these guys is the sure thing? And how much is the sure thing going to average in year 2? year 3? What is their APM? TS%? PER?
How can I prove anything when I’m arguing against what you and Sports2 say Turner (and Cousins and Favors) are going to do in the NBA. I guess that is why they play the games.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, flip it around
By your logic, why not trade our pick for some established vet every year? I can’t speak for Yao, but I don’t think it’s possible to prove any prospects are better than Amare. But it’s also not possible to prove what Amare will do over the next couple years.
There is no proof, only our best guesses based on the evidence. If you want a detailed scouting report on each of these guys and why they might turn out to be good pros, I don’t begrudge that at all. But there’s plenty of time before the draft and plenty of sources available to look at. But as a preliminary point, it’s entirely reasonable to think a couple of the strongest prospects in a strong group of them might be immediate hits in the league.
All emotion and no logic
Yeah, I’m sick of not “waiting”, but getting all huffy about it isn’t going to change things.
Even if Turner fulfills your wildest imagination, he still is 2 or 3 years away from being a guy you can count on leading you far in the playoffs.
Not so much. If he’s very good, he’ll come in and hit the ground running as a 16-18 PER player as a rookie. That’s not at all unheard of, there have been 19 guys like that in the last 10 years, so there’s basically 2 per draft.
In that time, you have to resign Noah and Rose, hope Deng doesn’t self-combust, hope that he doesn’t suffer any type of injury (hello back surgery), and than be willing to come to terms with Turner on a high priced contract. There are far more variables at stake than whether or not Turner becomes a productive player.
Indeed. However, those variables are also at play in a world where we sign a guy like Amare. Amare isn’t going to make us an immediate contender either. But unlike Turner, he will cost the max immediately, so if Jerry Reinsdorf expects a contender and doesn’t get it, re-signing Noah and Rose are in that much more jeopardy.
A star rookie, on the other hand, even if we extended him early, wouldn’t start his new contract until the 3rd year of Roses presumed new contract. At which point Deng and Hinrich’s contracts would both have expired and just be bad memories.
Meanwhile James, Wade Bosh and Stoudemire are still in the league and still all better than Turner.
James and Bosh should be, barring major injury. Wade will be for a couple years. But look at the year 2 stats for those rookies and they’re up to 20 or better. Which is really the point. It’s not a long wait at all. Especially if we’re adding him to a talented team.
The biggest issue is that there’s really a big difference between the true Superstar players, who I’d limit to Wade, Bosh and Lebron, and everyone else, like Amare, Lee, Boozer and Johnson. Those guys are clearly a tier or two behind the big three.
If we have a really legitimate shot at getting Bosh or Lebron, than I tend to think we should go for it. But if Lebron wins a title in Cleveland and Bosh beats our ass to get in the playoffs, I’m gonna have a hard time seeing that happen.
I’m sort of torn on Wade. His numbers undeniably put him in the top tier, but he’s older, plays a style that’s super hard on his body, and seems the least compatible of all with Rose. Finally, out of all the vibes I get from these guys, his make him seem least likely to want to come here. But that’s just my perception.
So I sort of count him out to start with. So if the big 2 guys look off the table, then yeah, I’d rather have a high potential rookie I think will become as good or better within a year than an aging 2nd tier player locked in at first tier money.
by Sports2 on Mar 22, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
all emotion and no logic - whatever. I'll just walk away from this conversation
You can have fun planning the Bulls championship 5 years from now.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I have to just say
your logic is just to assume that Turner or Cousins will grow into 20 to 22 PER players and be completely problem free. Sorry for being so illogical and emotional. I mean, when confronted with air tight assumptions like that, who was I to disagree?
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
My logic is explicitly to try and gauge the costs and benefits of each possibility
I haven’t said word one about DeMarcus Cousins. About Turner, I said he looks like a very, very good prospect. Both from the numbers and from watching him play. Perhaps as good as Roy or Wade.
Of course we have to project what we see them becoming. One also has to project what he sees current pros like Amare becoming over the same period.
I’m in favor of making as much of an apples to apples comparison as possible, using all facts at our our disposal, and not dismissing anything out of hand. In short, I advocate trying hard to find out which course of action is the best. You seem to be trying hard to advocate a course of action.
and you know Turner is going to be a great player how?
you said only 1 or 2 guys turns out to be 16-18 per players in their rookie seasons. What if that is Wall and Cousins? Than the Bulls are completely screwed using your formulation.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 22, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
That's on average
I certainly wouldn’t consider us screwed if we came out of the draft with the 3rd best player in a really strong draft.
Like, would I be ok with Chris Bosh or Melo if we missed out on Lebron or Wade? Yes I would!
In this sort of scenario, we wouldn’t be trading blind into the draft. If we feel good about doing it after evaluating who’s likely to be there, and then the other team is dumb enough, then ok. That’s pretty different than simply trading for the pick and hoping whomever is left there turns out good.
I’d definitely get up of my couch, walk a few feet and call 911 if I saw most of you on fire in the street.
lmao
by Belize on Mar 22, 2010 3:08 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
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