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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

The Bulls' playoff chances: Do they still exist?

Yes.

But they aren't very good. The current playoff odds:


Hollinger B-R.com CoolStandings AVG
Bucks 100% 100% 99.9% 100%
Heat 98.8% 99.6% 99.2% 99.2%
Bobcats 98.4% 98.4% 98.4% 98.4%
Raptors 72.9% 86.0% 86.3% 81.7%
Bulls 30.0% 16.0% 16.2% 20.7%

 

But as the Bulls' season was irrevocably altered by Saturday's earth-shattering, 10-game-losing-streak-snapping 98-84 win over the mighty Philadelphia 76ers, could they actually overcome the 1-in-5 odds and catapult themselves into the playoffs?

For starters, let's put this in proper perspective. The projected wins of each of the other contenders:

Hollinger B-R.com CoolStandings AVG
Bucks 46-36 45.7-36.3 45.6-36.4 46-36
Heat 44-38 44-38 43.6-38.4 44-38
Bobcats 44-38 43.5-38.5 43.2-38.8 44-38
Raptors 40-42 40.3-41.7 40.2-41.8 40-42

 

The Bulls are currently 32-37. I'd say to get themselves clear of the Raptors -- who already own the tiebreaker thanks to a 2-0 mark in the season series -- they'll need to finish with 42 wins, so that's 10-3 the rest of the way.

The Bulls have not picked up more than 9 wins in any 13-game stretch this season.

Still, they've also rarely been healthy for that long; if they are, 10 wins seems improbable yet doable. Granted that's a huge caveat. Given the semi-emergence of James Johnson, I think the Bulls can overcome Luol Deng's continued absence provided Derrick Rose is able to play major minutes and Joakim Noah is back to stay, even if he's slowly worked back into the rotation. But since Noah's already had one false start in his recovery, well ...

Nevertheless, here's one road map to 10 Bulls wins, given their remaining schedule:

3/22 vs. Houston, W

For the Bulls to pull this off, they absolutely have to take care of business at the United Center, especially against the semi-decent teams. That means they must beat the Rockets, who they topped in Houston in the midst of that 5-game road winning streak in late January. They'll have to find a way to do it again, even though they aren't playing nearly as well now as they were then. They'll be helped by the Rockets being on the second half of a back-to-back.

3/25 vs. Miami, W

Along wiith the Houston game, one of the two more important tilts on the schedule. They'll need to beat Miami and a seemingly-healthy Dwyane Wade for the second time this year (they are 1-2 against them). The good news is, the Bulls won the only previous matchup at the UC, 95-91 on Feb. 6.

3/27 vs. New Jersey, W

God, would anything be more embarrassing than getting swept at home by the Nets? If the Bulls somehow lose this game, don't even bother with the final 10.

3/28 at Detroit, L

While this is obviously a winnable game, it's also the second-half of a back-to-back, and I just don't think the Bulls will sweep the season series against the Pistons. I have a feeling that Ben Gordon might have his I'll-show-you game in hopes of playing spoiler for the Bulls chances.

3/30 vs. Phoenix, W

There is one thing that Vinny Del Negro has done well as Bulls' coach: beat the Suns. The Bulls haven't lost to Phoenix in two years, but the Suns are a very good team, one that shouldn't lose to a team like Chicago that many times in a row. The Bulls can afford to lose this game -- which is a distinct possibility -- if they beat the Pistons in Detroit.

4/2 at Washington, W

I wasn't happy the last time the Bulls played in Washington and lost, and they simply can't afford to let it happen again. After seeing the Wizards front line run amok in that game, Chicago really needs Joakim Noah healthy enough to log significant minutes, and keeping rookies Johnson and Taj Gibson out of foul trouble will be crucial too.

4/3 vs. Charlotte, W

The long-awaited return of Tyrus Thomas. This one, from Tyrus' perspective, could go either way. He might have a monster game that would include around eight blocks, or he's going to try to do too much and he'll end up sitting on the bench after going 0-for-4 with a pair of goaltending calls in 13 minutes. Regardless, I'm sure he'll get booed in one of those inexplicable UC crowd reactions. And before you say that the booing would, in fact, be explicable, keep in mind that Tyrus' greatest transgressions were:

1. Being a supposed lottery flop (even though his per-minute and efficiency numbers were solid)

2. Getting benched (because of injury)

3. Teeing off on a coach (that most of the UC faithful consider a joke)

4. Getting traded (without requesting/demanding one, at least publicly)

5. Doing well since the deal (mostly a function of more consistent playing time)

4/6 vs. Milwaukee, W

One game after Tyrus' chance at redemption, John Salmons gets his in yet another must-win game that the Bulls could easily lose. They've dropped 2 of 3 in the season series thus far -- with the three games being decided by a total of seven points -- but have won the only other one at the UC. The problem is that Milwaukee has been on fire since the trade deadline, going 14-2 since Feb. 19, while the Bulls, as you may have heard, have been headed in the opposite direction.

4/8 vs. Cleveland, L

A game the Bulls might steal against a slumming Cavs team. But come on, it's LeBron. I'm not picking against him.

4/9 at New Jersey, W

Home or away, playoff teams have got to take care of business against (potentially) the worst team in NBA history.

4/11 at Toronto, W

The must-win game in the whole stretch. Since they'll be going head-to-head with their primary competition, this one amounts to a 2-game swing. The Bulls can still make the playoffs with a loss here, but losing this game likely would result in them needing to get to 43 wins instead of 42, which would mean picking up two additional wins (say, at Detroit and vs. Cleveland) to make it in.

In other words, they have to win this game. And they've already lost twice to the Raps this season, in pretty convincing fashion. Luckily, Toronto is one of the few teams that has been playing nearly as poorly as the Bulls, with just three wins in its last 13.

4/13 vs. Boston, W

The Celtics will be looking to avenge this ugly loss on their home floor, but they also (hopefully) won't have a lot to play for, as their seeding -- they're currently a half-game ahead of the Hawks for third in the Eastern Conference -- may be decided by then. If so, the Bulls should roll. Regardless, I expect the UC crowd to be engaged playoff-style in this rematch of last year's epic seven-game first-round series.

4/14 at Charlotte, L

If both teams are still fighting for positioning, I just don't see Chicago beating a Bobcats team that currently holds the fourth-best home record (25-8) in the Eastern Conference. However, if Charlotte's seeding is already locked and the Bulls still have something to play for, then they could get very lucky.

 

And that would be 10-3. Unfortunately, looking at that stretch I'd say five wins are far more likely than 10. But it is at least possible.

Really, I think the next two games are key; the Bulls simply have to put together a little momentum if they are going to make a playoff run, and it has to start by winning a few games that aren't gimmes. If they can do that, who knows? It might be a long shot, but I'll take it over no shot at all.

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Comment 34 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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Good stuff man

i actually look forward to reading your posts, just the right touch of quirkiness and information

On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!

by piccolomair on Mar 21, 2010 11:10 PM CDT reply actions  

The good thing about our remaining schedule is that there are no games that we're big dogs in.

Every game is pretty winnable. We have only one road game against a team above .500 (Charlotte) and the top teams we play (Cleveland, Boston) will likely have packed it in somewhat by the time we play them.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 21, 2010 11:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Root for Cleveland.

The Bulls are their 4th-to-last game of the year, and they’re currently 3.5 games ahead of the Lakers. They could wrap up homecourt throughout the playoffs before that, which would be swell. OTOH, they might not, and that game is going to be on TNT… I don’t see James not making a big deal out of that game. Who knows, though?

In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).

Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.

by tyger1147 on Mar 22, 2010 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Nice Post Dude

but unfortunatly i think the bulls will have a record of more like 3-10 …after this stretch

by rick_ross on Mar 21, 2010 11:56 PM CDT reply actions  

That 2007 team was loaded with talent.

That team got you Derrick Rose.

Luol Deng 24 going on 54.

by SoulEater7 on Mar 22, 2010 8:37 AM CDT reply actions  

Btw, TT is averaging 24 mpg in Charlotte

As opposed to 23:23 mpg with the bulls. So much for the idea that he’s getting more playing time in Charlotte.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 22, 2010 10:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Well

I didn’t know that either.

by T.Moore on Mar 22, 2010 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't say more playing time...

I said more consistent, and did so after looking at the numbers. After playing 24 minutes or more in just 11 of 29 games with the Bulls, he’s done so in 9 of 17 with Charlotte. His minutes have dropped off over the last several games — I think mostly due to Tyson Chandler’s return — and his production has fallen off, too.

by MrSportsKnowItAll.com on Mar 22, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well some people seem to be under the impression that he's getting more playing time, which is just not true.

And minutes are minutes. I can see an argument that Charlotte is more talented than us, so he’s less deserving of minutes over there, but his production is more or less identical in Charlotte than it was in Chicago. He’s shooting a little more, but his TS% is down. He’s rebounding a bit more and turning the ball over a bit less, but he’s getting fewer steals. Bottom line, I don’t see the dramatic leap in production that a lot of people seemed to believe was happening.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 22, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not so fast!!!!

The problem in Chicago was the coaches and front office being overly concerned about Tyrus image to their fan base, rather than focusing on developing him to be a solid player! Tyrus like any other player would thrive under a better coach and a better system! He never resisted the coaches or management and did what he was told. However, Tyrus has a mind of his own and can play, so he’ll do what he’s capable of when on the floor. Too many Bulls fans bought into the players being bust (Tyrus, Noce’, Thabo, Gordon, Chandler, Crawford, etc). But the players start to produce when sent elsewhere (Roger Mason), and when players are given playing time (some require more than others) and teaching (that’s what real coaches are supposed to do, not sit on their butts and call plays), then a player will become better and better because the coach and front office are not just throwing money at an unproven player, but they’re investing in a talented player and making him more valuable!!!! If Rose realize this, the Bulls will be forced to change their stripes, otherwise they’ll lose him and their fan base. Because it’ll be obvious to everyone that the Chicago Bulls ownership don’t give a rat’s a** about winning or their fans!!! Don’t be fooled by what we’re being told and put it with what we’re seeing. The player is accountable for his play, but is the coach doing a good job coaching him, if at all? All the coaches after Phil were average to awful. Skiles got the Bulls to 3 straight playoffs, and would’ve had Tyrus playing like a beast, if he was more smooth than rigid!!! Now Skiles is being the coach the Bulls needed and getting the most out of his players. Beware!!!

by Shauns219 on Mar 25, 2010 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think anybody considers Larry Brown a bad coach, yet TT's production is essentially the same there as it was here.

Noce and Gordon were never considered busts. Some considered Chandler a bust, but I didn’t. And the only reason he produced better in NO was because of CP3. Sorry, but if Roger Mason’s your best example of a Bulls player performing better elsewhere, our development can’t be that bad.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 26, 2010 1:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

I never considered Chandler as a bust either.

I thought it was a mistake to let him go for an old and busted Ben Wallace.

by T.Moore on Mar 26, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Busts?

-Tyrus will likely get better, but I felt we needed a divorce (we are both better off)
-Noce was never a bust (everyone loved him), just overpaid. We got rid of him grudgingly
-Thabo is doing well in OKC, but he was never considered a bust – he just was a Kirk Hinrich clone who was never going to get playing time here
-Gordon is a good player, just not worth the coin the Pistons threw at him
-Chandler was good, just not worth the wait. The residual resentment was due to the Elton Brand trade. Damn Krause.
-Crawford we probably gave up on too quickly…you got me

by Kyle From Chicago on Mar 26, 2010 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

i don't think we have to go 10-3 to beat toronto to a playoff spot

they have a tougher schedule left than us, and have been playing almost as bad as us against teams not as good as our opposition.

ps rec’d for the tyrus caption lol

Practice beats talent when talent doesn't practice.

by iamsasquatch on Mar 22, 2010 12:06 PM CDT reply actions  

They have

been playing bad at full strength

by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 23, 2010 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks Mr.SKIA for laying it out there like that

Makes it a tad more clear for the rest of the season. WHat to expect from the Bulls is completely up in the air… but if there is a bright side to the Bulls it’s that they always seem to put forth effort. I don’t think they’re ready to mail it in, nor do I think they’ll get to that point.

But like you said, the next two games will dictate a lot for how this gosh darn thing plays out.

All your base are belong to Vinny.
WTF, VDN, WTF?

by BCs71 on Mar 22, 2010 2:43 PM CDT reply actions  

Theres a good chance that Boston and the Cavs end up resting their players

when we end up playing them so theres a chance we could take those games as well

by krypto22 on Mar 24, 2010 9:25 PM CDT reply actions  

dont you remember last year

when the cavs’ scrubs beat us to knock us out of the 6th seed. please do not say anything about the bulls playing undermanned teams. they always decide to lay an egg when that happens.

"4 inches, baby!" --ripped off from Kush

by anorexorcist on Mar 25, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

They'll Fold!!!

The Bulls are playing for this summer! They don’t care about the playoffs or the fans! They’re hoping that a major name will be willing to fill their stadium up with fans, or pretend to go after someone and find out that no one wants to play here (which they already know this) and at least look as if they’ve tried! No one with value will come and play for the Bulls unless they are no longer valuable, traded, or drafted by them. The Bulls won’t win another title until the players and a real coach decide to play with pride, despite what ownership and management are doing!!!

by Shauns219 on Mar 25, 2010 11:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Who would you play for.

The Bulls (rising superstar in Rose and one good-great post scorer away to being a great team) or the Nets (maybe the worst team ever)?

by T.Moore on Mar 26, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

As good as those two might be...

They are still unproven NBA talent at best.

How can we have the worst offense in the league when everything about our team owner and coach is offensive?

by Khalid El-Amin on Mar 31, 2010 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Rose>>Wall

Wall is like Rose. But skinnier.

by T.Moore on Mar 31, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah but...

Wall/Turner + Harris + Lopez + Yi + CDR + Courtney Lee >> Rose + Deng + Noah + Hinrich + Taj + JJ
Add on that the Nets will also have about $6 million more in cap space than us, and they’re a better situation than us, solely in terms of talent.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 31, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

True

But they dont have D-Rose. Who seems to be advancing almost every game. Harris seem to hit his ceiling IMO. They do have better all around talent but still. They are maybe the 2nd worst team off all time

by T.Moore on Mar 31, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah but they have Brook Lopez, who is almost as good (some might even say better)

He may not be flashy but if he played for anyone but the Nets, he’d be an all-star. Harris may have hit his ceiling, maybe not (he’s been hurt this year), but his ceiling is still rather good, and his contract is a pretty good deal for a player of his caliber. I honestly believe that NJ is the most attractive FA destination, if you only look at basketball reasons. Thankfully, New Jersey’s a shithole.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Mar 31, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

of the last 3 in each group taj is by far the best since yi, cdr and lee are nothing.

hell, jj sucks but he will be the 2nd best of those 6 if/when he stops fouling every 10 secs. basically, wall/turner better be REALLY good— and soon, although i doubt either of them are worth 26 wins.

there is something awesome about Pargo, though.
Seriously. It’s kind of awe inspiring: he WILL shoot. He has no conscience. No remorse. He will shoot – the situation, the opponent, the country. He could be in zero gravity floating in orbit. The dude would be jacking up shots. And missing.

-MPG

by TheMoon on Mar 31, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you underestimate those guys

Lee’s an excellent complementary 2-guard. He defends well and knocks down the trey. He’s basically Hinrich without the capability to backup at PG (and he’s $8 million less expensive). I’d certainly call him more valuable than Taj.

CDR’s at a level we should hope JJ gets to next year. He’s probably got a lower ceiling, but he’s not worthless. And Yi can at least space the floor from the 4 (and bring in revenue by attracting Chinese fans, but that’s another story).

But even if you wanna throw those guys out, Wall/Turner + Harris + Lopez is better than Rose + Deng + Noah. The main reason we have 26 more wins than NJ is because our expiring junk (plus Salmons and TT while they were here) is a better than their expiring junk. Make fun of Miller, Flip, and Warrick all you want, but those guys are better than Kris Humphries, Trenton Hassell, Jarvis Hayes, and Josh Boone. The other reason is that they’ve been even more banged up than we have.

Brad Miller is god.

by Poloplaya14 on Apr 1, 2010 1:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

due to injuries the only hope we had for making the playoffs went out the window

at the trading deadline. I’m fine with it but the hope is gone out the window. So lets just be realistic and hope for a 10 ten draft pick. After last night even the whole nation knows after a national telecast. Its over johnny.

by Ibleedbullsred on Mar 26, 2010 10:08 AM CDT reply actions  

We Are Doomed!

Pray for a free agency Christmas in July.

by Kyle From Chicago on Mar 27, 2010 1:06 AM CDT reply actions  

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