Is Bosh the Answer? (What's the Question?)
by leeac on Mar 14, 2010 6:32 PM CDT
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PrintI tend to side with the masses here on BaB and feel that (outside of LeBron) Bosh would theoretically be the best of the Big 3 to compliment to our young core of Rose, Deng & Noah.
Wade's game is similar to Rose's, and two slashing / jump shooting athletic guards who are poor 3pt shooters give's me nightmares that go something like, "Rose slashes to the basket and kicks out to Wade, Wade fakes the three and slashes and kicks out to.... Brad Miller standing behind the arc, Miller shoots...".
So assuming that LeBron sticks around in Cleveland, Bosh would seem the natural compliment to the Bulls core as he slides into the 4 position that Taj is keeping warm for him. He has improved his game over the last few years to become a steady 22/10 franchise-type player in Toronto. But what does Bosh bring to the table? I've been to a handful of Raptors games over the years, and my observations on Bosh lead me to believe that he's slightly overrated, and in a non-Big 3 hyped year, he's not worthy of a max contract. When I say this, I'm saying this as a fan and an observer, not as a 'stat' tracker.
Bosh is a big, long, athletic kid, who loves the midrange jumper. In the games I've seen him play in, he always seems to get his stats, but they're not 'impact' stats (if that makes sense). Bosh doesn't seem to make the big play, or grab the big rebound often (although that doesn't mean he's not capable of it). More often he's clearing out for a 1 on 1 at the top of the key rather than a PnR. At times he tends to disappear from games, especially when his jumper is not falling. His defense is what I would call 'adequate', but not good - and his lateral quickness on defense reminds me a little of Deng's (I know, ouch). I just don't think Bosh is really a franchise type player (i.e. LeBron, Carmello, Kobe). He's had a pretty crappy supporting cast for the last few years, but at the same time, he hasn't been able to do much with it.
Despite my personal observations on Bosh, I think the positive impact of Bosh on this team with a max contract outweighs the Bulls NOT picking up any of the Big 3 - but it makes me wonder if perhaps picking up a Boozer or a Lee for less than max money wouldn't be the smart thing to do. Both Boozer and Lee are similar to Bosh, but having cap space to sign a 'service-able' (non-Pargo) shooting guard this offseason will be almost as important. Having a backcourt of Derrick +1 will not cut it any longer, no matter how good that +1's defense is. This Bulls team needs a 3pt shooter next to Derrick, or else the lane gets narrow for him and for Bosh/Boozer/Lee. I think the signing of Bosh without any movement on a shooting guard is an improvement, but the Bulls can't move to the next 2 levels (playoffs and deep playoffs) without some offensive consistency at the 2.
If we can sign Bosh, sign him. And pray that we can somehow dump Kirk and pick up a solid shooter to pair with Rose. But if Bosh can't be signed, I don't think the drop off in a Boozer/ Lee is as high as some seem to think.
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Bosh
is a young (25) Power foward who is proven in this league to be a solid post option, averages 8.5 free throws a game. toronto are horrible when he doesnt play …so he defenatly makes a difference in that sense. 25 points a game 11 rebounds with a better record than the bulls. In scoring slumps bulls could turn to him to get to the line like Torronto does. He can also run the floor and can play 40+ minutes. So my opinion is Yes he does deserve a Max Deal.
Good points
on the free throw attempts. Lee and Boozer get to the line only 4 and 5 times per game (respectively). Bosh’s FT% at 80% is excellent.
"The people we lost, I'm sad we lost them because they helped us. But the organization saw something in these players. They're going to help us. They don't have any attitude problems. They just want to ball." - Derrick Rose
Right. Anyone who gets to the line that much isn't as perimeter-oriented as he may seem.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Bosh
is extremely similar to deng in alot of things, except hes bigger, longer, more athletic, more efficient scoring, better rebounder, and a real leader. In this free agency class there is not better pf (like you said) while some make arguments for amare, amare seems heavily dependant on the pick and roll game, and i think that then means hes dependant (to an extent) on nash, like you said bosh doesnt seem to utilize the pick and roll game much so that to me is more of an indication of the skills bosh has, he can get the ball at the top of the key and create for himself a bit. Hes also showing more signs recently of going into the paint and using his quickness to do some post scoring although he is still nowhere near being a traditional post option…
he shoots 50% from teh field and gets to the line when he cant find his jumper. He might not be impactful like wade or lebron, but hes had his share of game winners, both on offense and defense, youtube can provide evidence.
Hes not the best pf in the league, but hes one of hte best, and the best available in the free agency. Although if nowitzki is available id say dirk is the best, bosh being 5 years younger means he can play alongside rose for alot longer.
Bosh’s ability to play in the high post also opens up things in the middle for rose, while allowing rose options for kick outs, and pick and fade opps. It also allows noah chances to catch the defense off guard and get inside for dunks since the better defensive big men will be tightly on bosh with the other players lurking close enough to help out, opening up things.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Didn't the Bulls used to have a shooting guard,
who could hit open shots? Why did they keep Kurt over him?
And pray that we can somehow dump Kirk and pick up a solid shooter to pair with Rose.
We miss you, Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Mar 14, 2010 8:03 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Despite your reference to BG,
I would have even preferred to keep Salmons over Kirk. Salmons was coming out of an early season funk and actually hitting his open jumpers. Bulls brass took that as the perfect opportunity to trade him for some perceived value. Had they insisted on sending Kirk to Skiles instead of Salmons, they could have worked out the difference in salaries, Salmons would still NOT be on the hook yet for next season, and even if he WAS, he would still be ~$3m less than Hinrich’s cap space. And if he chose to bolt, we would be discussing ways to make Bosh/Johnson work instead of Bosh/Morrow.
"The people we lost, I'm sad we lost them because they helped us. But the organization saw something in these players. They're going to help us. They don't have any attitude problems. They just want to ball." - Derrick Rose
Hinrich to the Bucks?
Where do you see that the Bucks would have taken Hinrichs contract? I agree Hinrich should have been moved, but you can’t just make Skiles take him. Trades are a two way street.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
but the glue!
Hinrich had the worse contract, so I’m inclined to agree. I wish the Bulls told us as much (for selfish reasons), and the report of ‘junk’ being offered from Boston as if we should’ve expected more still gets my goat.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed about the Boston thing
What exactly were they expecting for an overpaid guy with a declining skill set? I just don’t really get it, if you are going to give up Tyrus and Salmons, I don’t see how you justify keeping Kirk.
I mean, I think most of us all understand we weren’t trying to win anything this year, but once you choose to completely give up on being competitive, how do you not move Hinrich also? I guess being on the outside, there is no way to actually know how close the Celtics deal was, but it seems from all I’ve read that it was a legitimate offer.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed.
Give “Away” Salmons/Tyrus should have also meant Give “Away” Kirk.
"The people we lost, I'm sad we lost them because they helped us. But the organization saw something in these players. They're going to help us. They don't have any attitude problems. They just want to ball." - Derrick Rose
Well think how bad this team would be right now without Kirk
If we’d traded Kirk and salmons Our playoff odds go down even more. That said, I think we should’ve traded Kirk and kept salmons, solely because salmons would’ve most likely opted our anyways, but we still wouldn’t had been screwed if we’d opted in.
Brad Miller is god.
think how bad this team would be without Salmons and Tyrus
Oh wait.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
by Prevenge on Mar 15, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah but who cares?
Once you get rid of Tyrus and Salmons you aren’t even trying to make it look like you want to win. No reason to half ass things.
There was a lot of doubt about Salmons opting out at the time we traded him, it wasn’t that likely at the time. Now that he’s put up some good numbers in his time in Milwaukee it is more likely, but they were guaranteed nothing there, he had to be moved. It just would have made more sense to move Hinrich too.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
remember the fervor in the few games post-trade?
they were not only trying to make it look like they wanted to win, the media was pushing that they were better.
Maybe the Bulls figure that a $9m Hinrich is actually a good piece around this new core + Max McContract. I’d rather have that money freed up, but I’m more of a ‘tangibles’ guy.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Skiles
would have loved to take him.
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying." -- Michael Jordan
by bennythebull on Mar 15, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I was unaware Skiles became an idiot when he moved to Milwaukee
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Come on
Kirk was his love child
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying." -- Michael Jordan
by bennythebull on Mar 15, 2010 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
This is trash
If you don’t think bosh is worthy of a max contract, who the hell is? Keep in mind that this is a league in which players like Erick dampier routinely get near-max contracts. If the CBA wasn’t set up so that there was a maximum salary, bosh would command far more $ than the current maximum salary on the open market. And you back up this claim with statements like " his lateral quickness on d is like deng’s" as if that was an insult. Deng’s an elite perimeter defender. If bosh was the defender deng was, He’d be the best big man in the NBA.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 14, 2010 9:14 PM CDT reply actions 7 recs
agreed
anytime I see the thought of how Bosh and Wade would ‘fit’, I think they’re thinking too much.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 14, 2010 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions
To be fair
I think he said that he would be all for the Bulls signing Bosh, just that he felt other options wouldn’t exactly be a disaster like most seem to think. I kind of agree, but in a way I feel like this franchise needs the mental pick me up of getting a “star” as much as the on court production. The whole organization has felt second rate since MJ left and it would be great for the fans and the players to see the Bulls win something, even if that something is only free agency
Neil takes the fun out of funk
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 15, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
That's true, he didn't go all out in terms of Bosh-bashing, but to suggest that Bosh is overrated is just ridiculous
If anything, people tend to underestimate the difference between cream-of-the-crop players and the next tier down. And it’s not just because he’s that good; the other reason why he would be a tremendous signing is that he’s only 25!! That means that even if we give him a 6-year-deal (via a S + T, of course), he’ll only be 31 in the final year of his contract. It’s incredibly rare that you can get a player through free agency that isn’t virtually guaranteed to fall off the map in terms of production by the end of his deal. That’s opposed to Boozer who’d be 33 in the final year of a 5-year-deal. Even though Bosh might not be that much better than Boozer now, the difference between the two will grow tremendously as they both age.
Brad Miller is god.
When it comes to Bosh I'm already SOLD
He’s been my first choice for a while now (well, besides Lebron) and for all the reasons you just mentioned. But I don’t think it hurts to start thinking “what if?”. because until we actually land a player like that, it will continue to feel highly unlikely that we ever will. To me this post was kinda like the guy who points out all the flaws in a beautiful girl because he thinks he’ll never be able to get her, it may not be right, but it feels good
Neil takes the fun out of funk
by Juiceboxjerry on Mar 15, 2010 4:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Rec'd for sanity in time of near hysteria.
Lately the sentiment floating around seems to be that if we don’t land one of the big 3, not only is this season a waste but we’re also doomed for generations. Admittedly I haven’t seen Bosh in action enough to pass judgement, but the impression out there seems to be that he’s not really a closer or clutch guy. This isn’t to say he’s not worth a max contract somewhere, but he may not be for us. Same goes for Amare.
Although Wade is capable in this aspect (clutch performance) I agree that while a Wade/Rose backcourt is makes a great daydream, it might not play out as well in reality.
I think any of these guys (Wade, Bosh, Lebron, Amare, Joe Johnson) would be an instant improvement to any team, but only LeBron makes you an instant threat. Therefore in the absence of Lebron, it makes sense to target someone like Lee or Boozer who can put up similar numbers but still leave you something left over to pay for decent bench guys. Our current situation out to be indicative enough of the value of having a capable 2nd team.
hard pail lunch hat
is there any support for your "clutch" comment?
anyways, what is the argument for bosh? 1) age. 2) higher defensive ceiling than boozer or lee. 3) better shot creator than lee or boozer. 4) ftas. 5) has been more successful than lee, and has gotten as good or better numbers than boozer with less help.
argument against bosh seems to be purely financial. so maybe this is the question: if we agree bosh is the best big available, who else specifically would the bulls have to get along with boozer/lee/amare in order to make it a successful offseason?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Well I don't think boozer/lee/amare wouldn't be a successful offseason
I just think Bosh would be a more successful offseason. But if you’re asking if we could sign someone in addition to amare/boozer/lee to form a package that would be as good as Bosh, I don’t know if that’s gonna be a realistic scenario. A lot of people seem to be under the impression that boozer/lee/amare will go for under the max. Given how many teams out there have cap room, I think it’s very possible that all these guys get max deals, meaning we can’t expect to sign boozer and another good player.
Brad Miller is god.
if what you say about boozer and lee (i sort of figured amare would shoot for the max)
is true, then the bulls not getting rid of kirk suddenly feels like an even worse decision than it already was.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Good point in the last paragraph
But does Lee + Morrow make us better than we would be if we only added Bosh?
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 14, 2010 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it might
But Lee + Morrow is gonna be more expensive than Bosh, and we might not have the cap room to pull that off. Morrow will take probably at least $6 million to pry him away from GS, and I’d guess Lee commands a contract in $13-14 million range.
Brad Miller is god.
I don't think
it will be hard to pry morrow from GS. They already have guards they are building around, and the team is clearly in a cost cutting stage. It will probably be other teams offering him a deal that we will need to worry about.
As an organization,
the Bulls brass can’ t tell fans to forget about the last 2 years because they’re brining in their big fish DAVID LEE.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Lee's obviously not as big a name as the other guys
But I wouldn’t be that depressed if we got him and morrow (or even better, ginobili). Lee’s still a young all-star player capable of big things.
Brad Miller is god.
I would be
bummed and have to down a fif of Remy, lol. The Moet is reserved for Bosh
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
The fif! I pleads tha fif. Seriously tho Lee is a nice player but we need great or at least extremely good players. Why settle?
AGREED!! the Bulls need to follow the Bears and Blackhawks
and bring some more star power to town, no settling, the Bears didn’t settle for the cheaper option of Aaron Kampman, lets go after the Julius Peppers of PF (Bosh), Lee = free agency fail. I didn’t sacrifice 2 years for Lee or Gay.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 16, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I would be happy
mainly because of Morrow though.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
What if it's just Lee and Omer Asik?
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
OMG
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
C'mon
How would adding a 27-year-old all-star PF averaging 20/12/3.5 be that bad? Granted, it’s not what we’re hoping for, and we wouldn’t be able to contend right away, but I think we’d be able to turn that team into a contender in 2-3 years.
Now I get that a lot of people would be pissed and say “this sucks, we gave up Gordon and TT for David Lee!” But keep in mind that that’s the backup plan. We gave up Gordon and TT for the opportunity to get LeBron/Wade/Bosh with the failsafe of being able to go after Amare/Boozer/Lee if we failed.
Brad Miller is god.
my understanding of the failsafe was boozer/lee + someone else.
this plan was a damn pipedream to begin with, but the only thing that sort of made up for it was the idea that boozer/lee + another guy was close enough to bosh to win a lot of games. if they arent going to do that and arent contending til lee is 30 then this was a fucking waste and there is no way im watching this team going forward.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Now you're just being hyperbolic
Honestly which line would be better?
Rose/Gordon/Deng/TT/Noah or Rose/Hinrich/Deng/Lee/Noah?
You seem to have a much higher opinion of TT than I do, and a lower opinion of Hinrich than I do, so I can see why you might pick the former, but even if that’s the case, the overall difference in talent is marginal either way. Gordon’s much better offensively than Hinrich, but Hinrich’s a better defender. Lee’s much better than TT offensively, but TT’s better defensively. It’s more or less a wash IMO. So basically the worst case is a lateral move in talent, while the best case is a HUGE upgrade (via one of the big 3). I don’t see how you can argue that going after that possibility is that poor of a decision.
Brad Miller is god.
not hyperbolic at all. i dont give a crap about either of those lineups you mentioned.
im a basketball fan, not a bulls fan. rose isnt so good that my being geographically proximate to the united center will tether me to this team no matter what. and while i dont really like watching streaming games i think i can learn to enjoy some fuzzy and periodically interrupted great/ really exciting basketball more than some clear, familiar and perpetually 45-52 win team.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
If you're not a Bulls fan, then leave this site, for your own good.
My soul is already attached to the Bulls. Might as well save yours.
by Stacey_Is_King on Mar 21, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Not A Bulls Fan eh? Well good for you.
Oh and are you saying that the Bulls play 97 games?
familiar and perpetually 45-52 win team.
I think yes
Because it addresses this team’s depth and outside shooting issues. First off, this team needs players. Second, we do not have a 2 guard who can consistently score, nor do we have anyone at any position who can hit the 3. Morrow can do both. No question that Bosh is better than Lee, but getting something less than Bosh at the 4 plus someone else who really helps us at the 3 is much better.
having a capable 2nd team is not important
what’s indicative of it this season? that it’s hurting our chances for finishing top-8 in the bad conference?
If we have better top-level talent the stakes are completely raised. That’s what’s important first. You get Bosh first and worry about the bench later. Even MUCH later, as Bosh turns 26 later this month.
I think the Skiles Bulls proved that having multiple ‘capables’ isn’t as good as having star talent.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 14, 2010 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions
this is why I think the difference between the 11th pick and 17th pick is quite significant.
At 11, the Bulls will virtually have their pick of the second-teir shooting guards in the draft. The likes of Xavier Henry, James Anderson, Willie Warren and Avery Bradley will all be available at 11. They might all STILL be available at 16-18, but it’s also possible none of them are. Those players won’t be as good next year as Morrow, but in 2-3 years they might be. Then they also have Bosh on top of that instead of Boozer or Lee.
A core of Rose, Morrow-like, Deng, Bosh and Noah is fantastic and easy to fill in behind, especially when you have Gibson and Asik in the front court.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Well if it looks as though those guys will be gone we can always send a team cash to move up.
Like we apparently did to get sefolosha.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 15, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree.
I’m just skeptical of Reinsdorf spending money at this point. You’re right, though, it is possible.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
He did
shell out the big dollars for Big Ben, he will pony up for big time FA
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
He "shelled them out" but quickly cut salary by cutting Chandler.
He actually saved money (paid less in contracts) by making those two deals near simultaneously.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I guess, but
he had no reason to keep Chandler after getting Wallace, I just thought we could’ve pawned him off for more than just PJ Brown, even though the Bulls received JR Smith in the smae deal, but they decide to trade him for peanuts.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Well I think the plan was to use PJ's expiring deal to get a low-post scorer, but obviously that fell through
That’s the biggest failure the Pax era so far, IMO. We couldn’t pull off that deal for a Garnett or Gasol, or even a Zach Randolph, that might have put us over the top.
Brad Miller is god.
Right. It's the same thing all over again.
They’re supposed to use the cap space this summer (created by not keeping Gordon, jettisoning a pick with Salmons) to use on a max free agent. That is supposed to put them over the top. It might all just fall through again. The Bulls might not be able to pull a deal for Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson or even a David Lee (what if he commands more than $12 million, you think JR will pay that?).
These two moves set the Bulls up to make a bigger deal that could be really great, but the fall back is that if it doesn’t, it still makes the owners of the team gobs of money will still fielding a decently-competitive team that will make the Bulls sellouts for the foreseeable future without really being a contender.
Fool me once, shame on you… Fool me twice….
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Well the reason we failed to trade for a low-post scorer was that we were too unwilling to part with our assets, particularly Deng and Gordon
In this case, it’s all about convincing a player to come here. They’re two completely different scenarios.
Brad Miller is god.
And convincing a player to come here is helped by having the best team.
They’re too unwilling to part with Kirk Hinrich. If they did that, they would get younger and better and have an even better shot.
No, they aren’t completely different. They’re not exactly the same, but they aren’t completely different. I understand why one would want to believe that, though.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Is it just semantics, or are you saying that depth doesn't matter?
I’m just in the camp (and apparently it’s a small camp) that’s not sold on the idea that Bosh is an instant game-changer in the same sense that players like LeBron, Kobe, Dirk, or Carmelo are, so I disagree with the “just sign him and we’ll figure it out” idea. He’s never been in a 2nd round series, so we really don’t know what he brings to the table when it’s time to be “the guy.”
As for the other comments, a lot of this depends on where you think the ceiling is on Derrick Rose, and whether you think he’s got it in him to be the franchise guy along with solid support. Maybe “the guy” is already here but might take another season or two to fully arrive. If that’s the case, then I’m a lot more comfortable with how Lee + Morrow (for instance) sounds than I am with Bosh + still needing to address the SG problem.
hard pail lunch hat
I think that camp is small for a reason
if you think Bosh isn’t that good because he can’t single-handedly take a team to the 2nd round, then you’re correct to feel that way. I have him a top-10 player in the league outside of your clutch ‘the guy’ ness valuation. And he’s significantly younger than Dirk or Kobe (huh?)
If Rose isn’t good enough to take over games late, then we’re fairly boned (FOR GENERATIONS). It’s not like we’d sign Lee for only 3 years and then figure things out again when Rose is deemed ready.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Take a hard look at Bosh...
The point is that Bosh isn’t on the same level as the players mentioned above, even if he commands the same asking price. I brought up Dirk and Kobe because they’re players who can do more than put up numbers, they can put them up when it matters. To refer to the OP, his stats are huge but not always “impact” stats. I haven’t seen this refuted anywhere so far.
If “the guy”-ness is to esoteric for you, check out his clutch stats @ 82games.com and see how he compares with the rest of your top 10.
hard pail lunch hat
did you yourself look at those stats?
because they look pretty good to me. 32.5/15.5/6 with less than 2 TOs per 48 minutes of crunch time is more than solid. the shooting percentage (.38%) is a little low, but he makes up for it by getting to the line over 17 times per48 of crunch. maybe no one has refuted the “impact stats” point because its to vague to be refuted.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
by TheMoon on Mar 15, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
d'oh, should've read yours first
I think heaphony is just gearing up for a 2010 failure to bring in his positive vibes because Bosh wasn’t that good in the first place.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Ha!
heaphony
We miss you, Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Mar 15, 2010 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions
and look at the year before
he’s at 34pts/48 and with the eFG over 48%. Maybe he got dramatically un-impact-guyness over that last season, but I’m likely just not grasping the esoteric nature of the thing.
I really don’t see where headphones is going with this, to be honest. Would he really prefer not to give Bosh a max contract if the opportunity presented itself?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
as long as there's a max contract
it’s unfair to say Bosh isn’t worth a max deal because he’s not a top-5 player. If it wasn’t capped maybe LeBron makes $30m.
If “the guy” ness of Bosh bothers you, wish for Rose to get the magic clutch juice then. Your idea of ‘impact’ stats hasn’t been refuted because it’s nonsense. Waiting around for a top-5 player instead of grabbing Bosh equally so.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
can't find a rebuttal of 'impact' yet.
but you should feel confident being in a league with this guy (ht: RealGM):
For all the accolades Rose has been receiving, he clearly doesn’t deserve most of them. Rose is not a winner and what he does on the court has very little impact to the final outcome.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
That article's hilariously bad
In his honorable mention list, he throws out like 50 names, most of which are great players. And his quote on monta Ellis: “anybody in the NBA can average 25 points of they shoot 22 time a game.”. Apparently he hasn’t seen pargo play.
Brad Miller is god.
We used the same word, we must have identical viewpoints.
If you look at Wade or LeBron’s clutch stats (or Kobe’s, for that matter…but whatever, he’s not in the running) it’s plain to see who’s capable of putting their team over the edge. I’m reluctant to use the terms “fire” or “passion” or “competitive drive” since I’m sure those are disallowed here and/or don’t exist in the mind of Your Flaming BoshBoner. But the W/L column is there for all to see, as is their +/-.
Bosh has never proven he can carry a team, so if you want a guy just because he can put up numbers, there are less expensive options. Even if your only saving a few million per year, that money can go towards an SG and/or make the difference between garbage and someone who can give you 8 quality minutes vs. just another warm body on the court.
hard pail lunch hat
once again, please look at the stats you claim to be citing. i cant tell if you are
a selective reader or are just trying to be controversial. whats better production per48 of crunch: 50/7/4 on 37 shots with 3 TOs; or 32/16/6 on 21 shots with less than 2 TOs? the first is kobe. he scores very well, but thats about it. the second is bosh. bosh scores well, but he also does everything else well too. if you believe that the game hinges on more than just scoring, then id say those two are equal clutch performers.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
yeah I'm wrestling (honestly!) with just attacking headphony outright
since this idea that Bosh isn’t ‘clutch the guy’ enough to deserve a max deal idea of his is just so preposterous. Though I hope he really believes it (and is just simply basketball-mistaken) and not the alternative that he’s just trying to stir shit by being preemptively positive over failure to sign the guy.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I want the guy who puts up numbers
and Bosh’s numbers are better, and he’s younger. And he’s a better defender. I thought D2.0 was the only sucky suck who used a TEAM’s w/l to discredit players. Rose can’t carry a team for shit either.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions
and I see your point, just saying it's wrong
Bosh is a step above Lee/Stoudemire/Boozer to where it’s better to have him + min. salary than those other guys + (let’s say) $3m SG. I’m not even sure you can get those next three with that much less than a max deal, anyway.
But I’m still not convinced (due to your lame-ass initial comment in this thread) you’re not sent from a future where the Bulls get nobody, and thus are already buttering up the narrative that it didn’t matter since only LeBron is a super-duper-duper-duperstar worth spending on. This idea that we can build better with ‘pieces’ rings false, and why not just keep Gordon and Tyrus if you can have more flawed less expensive options than Chris Bosh. To me he’s an absolute no-brainer acquisition alongside LeBron and Wade.
I’d be really really positive and optimistic (really) if they got him, not lamenting that there’s no money left for Anthony Morrow. The team doesn’t have to be completely built on 7/1/10 with Bosh/Rose/Noah/Deng all under 26. I’ll start by looking to deal Hinrich for some depth with longer-term contracts.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not as preposterous as this conversation is redundant.
If you all you want is a guy that puts up numbers and think that alone is worth a max contract, then maybe Deng’s salary is commensurate with his performance after all.
And it’s not about some notion of “pieces” it’s about the Bulls having 2 big problems: An inside big man/post player and weakness at the SF/3 point shooting. Signing Bosh addresses only one of these. If you have the chance to address both, do that.
I understand LeBron being a no-brainer, but not Bosh. Besides “look at his stats” I haven’t heard a convincing argument for why he’s the guy that could lead us to a championship.
hard pail lunch hat
'numbers' are actually quite quantifiable.
not just a term. Saying Bosh gets numbers like Deng gets numbers…actually I don’t even know what the heck you’re talking about anymore. Deng is pretty fairly paid if his legs don’t get broke every year.
Let’s just agree that you don’t understand why Bosh is worth a max contract.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 16, 2010 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions
So if you take Bosh over David Lee, 4 or 5 points per game is worth 3-4 million dollars?
hard pail lunch hat
You're right, we never should have paid Jordan all that money.
Mitch Richmond and Clyde Drexler only scored 4-5 points less!
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 16, 2010 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
In a way, that's my point.
Jordan was more than the sum of his stats. I don’t think you can say the same thing for Chris Bosh.
hard pail lunch hat
Jordan had REALLY good stats
lets indulge your ‘the guy’ ness. Does David Lee not have it either? I’m guessing not, but it’s only a guess since you’re making it up. So I’d still pay Bosh more than Lee because he’s better. I’d say most less easily quantifiable things Bosh trumps Lee in as well, he’s a better defender, and has been the leader of a team (while bad, not as bad as the Knicks) for several seasons. He would command the respect of teammates. This isn’t as significant as the fact that he’s simply better, but they are factors. And he’s younger. Did I mention he’s better?
It’s not as if they use all their cap space on Bosh, and then that’s the team for the next 5 seasons. They’ll still have opportunities to fill other holes in the future. Teams (like the Bulls) spend a long time trying to find top-tier talent and instead piece together guys trying to compete. Again, I thought the Skiles days proved that a whole solid team isn’t as appealing as a couple stars. Getting Bosh with Rose would do that.
Basically you don’t think Bosh is as good as his actual performance suggests because of some nebulous traits you haven’t convincingly laid out. Which isn’t your fault, it’s a hard thing to do since it seems mostly hooey.
I would agree with you that Bosh isn’t as good as LeBron James. I am not willing to hold out until that happens and lose an opportunity on Bosh because he’s merely a top 10 player in the league instead of top 5. In fact, what we’re likely having to hope for is that Derrick Rose gets your ‘the guy’ juice and Bosh can be Pau Gasol (and he may be better already).
If anything, it’d be interesting to see how Bosh’s game could potentially improve playing with Derrick Rose.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 16, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why are "the Skiles days" your only reference point?
What about the Detroit in ‘04? You’re misconstruing my argument if you think I ever said Lee is better than Bosh. But both were on the All-Star team. Lee is a year older than Bosh. BFD. Bosh puts up better stats but will cost significantly more. But signing Lee allows you some cap space towards getting a decent SG. Whatever, it’s been spelled out before. How is this such a contemptible idea?
hard pail lunch hat
which SG would you recommend the bulls signing?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
the thing is you win with having the best collection of talent
Bosh is a lot better than Lee. You don’t seem to believe that, but that is where the disagreement lies. In my mind Bosh brings several things to the table that outweigh Lee and a decent shooting guard.
A couple of points -
1. The Bulls need a high usage scorer who is also highly efficient. I would take one Carmelo over a Deng and Hinrich any day. Yeah, combined Hinrich and Deng score about the same amount of points. But having that one guy who you can count on to give you points every night is rare. Lee doesn’t do that. First of all, he doesn’t pass the eye test. He is a guy playing out of position, in the most wide open offense in the NBA. I don’t think he scores as much in a different system on a better team
He also has been nowhere as consistent as Bosh has been. He doesn’t get to the free throw line. He hasn’t done it as long. He doesn’t do it at the same volume or efficiency.
2. Bosh fits better with our personnel. The Bulls need a player capable of drawing a double team. He would significantly improve one of the worse offenses in the league. Lee doesn’t change the equation much. With Noah and Deng we already have 1 of the top rebounding teams in the NBA. Are we going to out rebound teams even more? This team needs a go to scorer. And you need a high volume 1 on 1 player given that Hinrich, Deng and Noah are all so bad on offense at creating for themselves.
3. He is bigger, which matters. Guys like Boozer and Lee struggle when matched up with bigger players. Bosh played Howard to a standstill a couple of years ago in the playoffs. He is capable of doing what he does against any defender no matter the size.
4. The Detroit model worked 1 year. The superstar player model has worked every other year in the NBA. Having 5 guys all comfortable with their roles, all of whom are about equal in skill (which has to be all-star level – the only Piston starter not to make an all-star team was Prince), and who you can afford, is extremely rare. 1 team was able to do it.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 16, 2010 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
THANK YOU!!!!
Somebody not as intrigued w/ David Lee’s numbers.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 17, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
also
its far easier to find a guy who is a decent shooting guard on the cheap than it is to acquire a top 10 player. By definition there are only 10 top 10 players and they rarely change teams. But you can find a bunch of guys to give you decent production at the shooting guard position either through the draft, free agency (like yfbb says the Bulls aren’t done building after this summer) or through internal improvement (go Hinrich!).
There will only be a select few guys capable of giving you Bosh’s production over the next 3 years. Shooters and defenders in the 2 pop up every season.
by Basketball Smurf on Mar 16, 2010 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks at least for a reasoned argument instead of the smug shit going around.
1. I’m not trying to Lee out as an equal player, and never did at any point.
2. Most of what you say here points more towards needing someone like Wade or Johnson. If we have rebounding taken care of already, then why target Bosh?
3. Can’t argue facts about who’s bigger. Although in the case of Lee, I don’t think it’s as huge a drop off as people must think. If nothing else, he’s bigger than Taj.
4. The whole thing hinges on where you think the ceiling on Rose is, and if he can be a true superstar, cornerstone player. If you believe his game still has a lot of room to grow, that he can close games out, get to the line, deliver clutch shots, etc, then filling two holes (PF and SG) instead of one is a good move.
hard pail lunch hat
on #1
Basketball Smurf didn’t claim you did that. Nice straw man argument.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
nothing not-smug about
saying that you know what REALLY wins games, just that you can’t explain it to the rest of us.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 17, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
In response to your 4th point.
Rose’s ceiling is irrelevant. You’re goal when putting together a team is to gather as much talent as possible. Bosh >> Lee, so regardless of how good the other players on your team are, you go after Bosh. If Rose turns into a hall-of-fame player, great, you got 2 of those. If not, well at least you got one in Bosh. And as for filling 2 holes, like I said, the difference between Bosh’s salary and Lee’s is going to be marginal, and not enough to get that much of a better player at SG.
Brad Miller is god.
Quality bench pieces, and not the Devin Brown and Jannero Pargo’s of the world.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 17, 2010 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
"Besides "look at his stats" I haven’t heard a convincing argument for why he’s the guy that could lead us to a championship."
What kind of crap is that? So you’re saying that when analyzing how good of a player somebody is, we should completely ignore the only completely objective information we have? Give me a convincing argument why anybody is the guy that could lead us to a championship without stats. You’re probably gonna throw out cliche, unquantifiable terms like clutchness, winning mentality, etc. Well, sorry but there’s no way to prove any of those things. Unless you wanna go by the “has he won before” logic. Well Derek Fisher’s won 4 rings. Should we give him a max contract?
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 17, 2010 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions
The Derek Fisher analogy is useless.
If we sign Bosh, it’s with the hope and intention that he play an intergral part in leading us towards a championship, and be a new cornerstone for the franchise. We all know the number he puts up, but I don’t see why it’s blasphemy here if you question the fact that he’s never been in a 2nd round series. And yeah, leadership and mentality matter. Here’s a recent quote:
“What else do you want me to do? Score 30, 40 points a game? Twenty blocks a game? That’s not my game. That’s not what I do.” – Bosh
I know everyone will jump on this and say it’s out of context, but I have a hard time imagining LeBron, Kobe or MJ coming up with that line.
The point isn’t to disregard his stats, it’s that if it’s just about numbers, someone like Lee is a player who puts up similar (though lower) numbers, but for way less $.
hard pail lunch hat
when the best player other than himself on his team was lamar odom
kobe never got out of the 1st round. and he missed the playoffs in ’05. and by the way, nothing you have said here is blasphemy at all (i too have thought quite a bit about what boshs overall effect on the a team is)— its just poorly argued.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
"question the fact that he’s never been in a 2nd round series"
The reason he’s never been in a 2nd round series is because the teams he’s been on haven’t had enough talent around him to be good enough to get him to the second round. It’s quite simple.
There are plenty of idiots who are saying the same things about LeBron, that he sucks because he can’t win it all. People said the same thing about MJ, that he was too much of a ballhog to be a consistent winner early in his career. But then he won 6 rings, with the help of Scottie Pippen, I might add, without whom he might not have won one. Basketball is a team sport, and it’s very possible to be a great individual player on a bad team. I don’t see why that concept is so hard to understand.
And your statement about Lee is moronic. He doesn’t have similar numbers if they’re lower across the board. And he won’t come for way less $. Given the amount of teams with cap room, it wouldn’t be that big of a surprise if he got a max deal as well, meaning he’d have gone for the same price as Bosh. I doubt see him getting more than a couple million under the max, which is about enough to get you a player of comparable quality to Jannero Pargo.
Brad Miller is god.
Lee is good but
you go after Bosh, who is great, you don’t go for lesser talent just because they are cheaper, NBA Championships is about star power, Rose & Bosh starts that championship building block, then you add Deng & Noah, a better SG than Hinrich, Hinrich becomes the 3rd guard(which he needs to be) or gone all together, Taj, JJ and some other bench pieces, that =’s CHAMPIONSHIP!!
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 17, 2010 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions
The Raptors lost to Orlando.
Bosh hasn’t been past the 1st round.
by Ozzie Montana on Mar 22, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Does Dirk play defense when it matters?
The point is that Bosh isn’t on the same level as the players mentioned above, even if he commands the same asking price. I brought up Dirk and Kobe because they’re players who can do more than put up numbers, they can put them up when it matters.
We miss you, Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Mar 15, 2010 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
this will probably be an unpopular opinion (you know, softness and all that shit) but i think dirk is a pretty good defender.
hes not likely to get blocks or steals (or even Drbs these days), but he knows where to be and i think he defends the PnR well and doesnt foul much. sometimes the best D seems to be the kind you dont notice, the kind that is more like a force field than an attack dog.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
and depth matters, just not as much if your team isn't good
we’ve already said (I can’t keep track of your delusion optimism with others who insist on mindsets over analysis, so if this wasn’t you too I apologize) that this whole season doesn’t matter. So I don’t see how the depth on it can truly ‘matter’. It only matters in getting this playoff seed that nobody seems to want.
When the Bulls get better big-minute talent, then the depth will matter. It’s about getting the stars first though.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions
but the bulls arent going to win a title next year even with bosh. so they will need a couple of years
to adequately build the team around the stars. and in those 2 years they can probably come by a 12-14 PER-SG- 3 pt. specialist. the way i see it, if you are getting lee instead of bosh, you need to do better than morrow at SG to make up for it since you could get bosh and a guy like morrow anyways.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
by TheMoon on Mar 15, 2010 1:08 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't even go so far as the say the Bulls can't contend next year
The Celtics proved that you can put together a patchwork bench with guys like Eddie House, Leon Powe and Tony Allen and win a title, so long as you stay healthy.
Brad Miller is god.
i guess the celtics proved that you can do that. but it only serves to support the notion that
getting the stars in place is by far the first goal, everything else being easier and of less importance.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Ainge doesn't get enough credit
for filling out that bench. Posey, Powe, Perkins, Rondo, House, Davis and the other Allen all made impact plays for that team in the playoffs that year. I’m not sure building a bench like that in one year can be replicated.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 15, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Powe wasn't appart of
that team in the championship year.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
My bad
he was apart of that team, I totally forgot, had Clevland on the brain
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 16, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think it's that big of a stretch to say we'll be able to do somehung similar
We already have taj and JJ, who looks like he might actually be worth something now. We’ll have our 1st round pick, whic we can use to get an NBA-ready reserve swingman like Xavier Henry or James anderson. Then we’ll have a little bit of cap room left over after our max FA to add another guy. After that, we’ll be able to entice a couple veteran players to sign for the minimum in order to get a ring (brad miller could be one of these guys). Find one decent part out of the d-league (maybe that’s Chris Richard) and we’re not that terrible shape
Brad Miller is god.
Lets pray a the
Bulls will have a coach that knows to put JJ in the post when James Jones is guarding him.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that the Bulls organization
is bad at evaluating talent when that talent hasn’t been to the final four. See: Pargo and Grey.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 15, 2010 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
The bulls draft record under paxson has been stellar
1st round picks under pax:
hinrich
Gordon
deng
Thomas
thabo
Noah
rose
JJ
taj
All those guys have clearly been good picks except JJ (too early to tell), tyrus, and thabo. And those last two have had success elsewhere, which suggests our drafting is good, but our development is not.
the
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 16, 2010 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions
stellar would mean more than one all-star appearance in 7 years
it’s alright. Few busts, but that’s the Paxson high-floor style.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 16, 2010 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll make a counter-argument:
Rose – other No. 1 picks 2003-2009: Blake Griffin, Oden, Bargnani, Bogut, Dwight Howard, James
Thomas – other No. 2 picks: Thabeet, Beasley, Durant, Williams, Okafor, Milicic
Gordon – other No. 3 picks: Harden, Mayo, Horford, Morrison, Deron Williams, Melo
Hinrich/Deng – other No. 7 picks: Curry, Gordon, Brewer, Foye, Villanueva
Noah – other No. 9 picks: DeRozan, Augustin, O’Bryant, Diogu, Iguodala, Sweetney
Sefolosha/Johnson – other No. 16 picks: Speights, Young, Graham, Snyder, Bell
Taj – other No. 26 picks: George Hill, Aaron Brooks, Farmar, Maxiell, Kevin Martin, Ndudi Ebu
Hinrich and Deng are the only two clearly best at their draft positions. Noah over Iguodala is arguable, as Sefolosha over his group. Gordon and Thomas are better than the average at their draft position, and they’re both gone. The number of good picks at No. 26 overall is amazing. They’ve been okay, but hardly “stellar”.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I think
Speights is the best in his group, Pax high floor/low ceiling players, Rose and TT are probably the only guys he drafted w/ high ceilings
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 16, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Tyger...
You can in no way compare draft picks across classes this way.
Best you can do is compare who else was drafted in before and after a player in that class.
This counter doesn’t work in my eyes. You can’t control the draft class the year that you land such pick. That’s weak. Some draft classes are stronger than others.
by kingj41 on Mar 16, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure, but it's looking at seven years.
Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But it’s not horrible.
I mean, like it or not, Rose is going to be compared to all No. 1’s of recent memory. One could say that the 2006 class was weak, and that’s unfair to Bargnani and Toronto, but then they missed on Roy and he could have been No. 1 instead, and he’d fare appreciably.
Comparing them to before and after is hindsight to say who they should have taken. Comparing them to others in that position give an idea of the expected value they should get from each spot, given a large enough sample size. Which this is not, but nothing is perfect in this regards.
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Well,
Not horrible…
It surely is impossible to quantify. But in the manner you did (more-so than in the link) it’s tougher to assess over a short period and focusing on more recent drafts.
At the top of the draft, you should obviously be going for the best available player. For years past (pre-2000 or so) that is easier to gauge. But now the question about picks are; is that need based value, best player available value, or most-likely-to-be-a-hall-of-famer-based-on-projections value? And then think about what teams are making those decisions. Every team is making a different decision. I just don’t know if every team assigns similar value to the picks they’re making.
And how about best available per position in the draft.
First PG taken in ’07? Mike Conley at 4.
First PG in ’06? Randy Foye at 7. But he was traded. So, was he a need pick for the team he was drafted for? It gets murky.
I just think it’s tough to assign value in that manner. You never know what these GMs are thinking. Rubio and Flynn back-to-back. Brook Lopez falling to the #10 pick? What team doesn’t need a center? Yi, an unknown taken at #6?
I’m just saying there are other factors than just, ‘we think this is the best player available here’ behind the selections.
And I have no idea what those are.
Obviously.
But then looking at those before and after doesn’t do much good, either. I mean, who wouldn’t have taken Brandon Roy? Well, the Bulls had two < 26 guards and needed someone in the front-court. And you can’t look at them in a vacuum because then you wouldn’t be able to compare them. No evaluation is perfect… You could even say the Bulls earned themselves into the lottery in… 7 of the past 11 years(???) and only have one post-first round playoff visit to show for it.
Take it all into context.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Well one thing I think people overlook is that even though the Bulls have had so many lottery picks, they've had relatively few chances to get a game-changing talent
With the exception of the chance to get Roy in ‘06, we really haven’t had a chance to get a clear-cut elite player. In the loaded ’03 class where everybody picked 1-6 has become an all-star except Darko, we had the misfortune of landing the 7th pick. And in ’04 where it was clear that Dwight and Okafor were 1 and 1a, we end up getting pick no.3. There has been a certain amount of bad look involved as well.
Brad Miller is god.
That doesn't give you expected value or anything else
It’s completely illogical. It only makes sense in a world where all drafts are completely equal. The ceiling of your first overall pick doesn’t get any higher just because Lebron was a first pick in previous years.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
Over time, drafts equal out.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Of course not.
But I want better than “not bad.”
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Well a lot of drafting is luck, so doing slightly better than average is all you can realistically expect.
Drafting exceptionally has as much to do with luck as with skill.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 17, 2010 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think they've done slightly better than average.
I think they’ve been average. There are teams that consistently do better than average. I don’t need the only “homerun” to be the one obvious pick they made. The Bulls did excellent in draft Noah. Probably a second homerun. But they’ve also got duds or gave up on players their coaches never really liked.
I just don’t think the Bulls have drafted better than you could have expected of any team drafting in those spots. And if they didn’t have Isiah, you’d take out Thomas completely and throw in Wilson Chandler instead of Noah. That makes their draft horrible, by any standard.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Giving up on players 3-4 years down the line isn't a drafting failure, it's a development failure
And your next paragraph is complete garbage. If you take out Thomas completely, their draft record is better, because Tyrus is one of their least successful picks. And now you’re just assuming the Bulls would’ve taken Wilson Chandler (who actually would’ve been a pretty good pick at no.23)?? What kind of retarded logic is that? They might’ve taken Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, or Marc Gasol. Or maybe they would’ve taken Chris Richard. Who the hell knows?
If you look at the Bulls picks, they really couldn’t have done that much better with what they had to work with (aside from taking Roy in ‘06, which I don’t blame them that much for, since PF was much bigger need than SG). The way I analyze draft picks is I look at the next 5 guys taken in the draft and see if there was a better option. Let’s take a look.
After Hinrich: Ford, Sweetney, Hayes, Pietrus, Collison. Nobody too appealing. Ford and Hinrich have had comparable levels of production over their careers.
After Gordon: Livingston, Harris, Childress, Deng, Araujo. Harris would’ve been nice, but until last year, Gordon looked like the far superior pick. It’s not a huge miss.
After Deng: Araujo, Iguodala, Jackson, Biedrins, Swift. Iguodala and Biedrins have turned out to be pretty good players, but so has Deng. I’d say all 3 of those players are at right about the same level in overall production.
After TT: Shelden Williams, Roy, Foye, Gay, O’Bryant. Here’s the only pick where it’s clear we messed up. Roy and Gay were both big misses, but given our needs at the time, it’s understandable that we looked for a PF. At least we didn’t get Shelden Williams.
After Thabo: Brewer, Simmons, Carney, Williams, Pecherov. Brewer would’ve been nice, but the other 4 players are all worthless.
After Noah: Hawes, Law, Young, Wright, Thornton. Easily the best pick here.
After Rose: Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gallinari, Not much to say here.
I’m ignoring this year’s draft because it’s just too early to say much.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 17, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I forgot our boy
PJ Brown. It was really a great collection of role players.
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 21, 2010 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Who says the Bulls aren't winning a title next season?
Outside of LeBron, the most wanted players among this community seem to be Chris Bosh and Anthony Morrow, both of whom happen to be free agents this offseason. So let’s start there.
The Bulls listen to the fans and make Bosh and Morrow priority #1. They are successful and sign both players. Now we have our 1-2 punch with Bosh and Rose, as well a starting 2 gaurd who can hit 3’s in Morrow. That allows the Bulls to have a very strong bench featuring Gibson, Johnson, and Hinrich. Let’s say they follow another idea many here are suggesting in re-signing Miller to add to that bench.
As of this, the lineup for next season would look like: Joakim Noah, Chris Bosh, Luol Deng, Anthony Morrow, Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, Brad Miller. That is a more than solid 9 man rotation. Throw in our 1st round pick to that, whomever he may be. To fill out the roster (wich will likely have one open roster spot “just in case”) they either bring back Richard/Pargo/Murray/Warrick or sign new guys who equally dont matter. Maybe they’ll do the ultimate fan service and go get Derrick Byars (gasp).
Now, in my opinion this team could very realistically win a championship. I think this lineup would certainly be better than Boston, Atlanta, and Orlando and is on par with Cleveland. Remember, they only need to beat 1 western conference team, and I don’t think that would be impossible.
Now you have a team made up of real players, two stars, three point shooting, and a decent bench all while retaining that “hard hat and lunch pail” situation the Org. drools over.
This scenario is just an example, so take it is that, but it is an example that is certainly realistically possible. There is nobody to say the Bulls arent winning a title next year.
Why aren't they selling Rose's all star jersey?
if you disregard cap rules
like you did (what’s Morrow coming here for, peanuts?), then sure, as KG would say, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Assuming we sign Bosh for max...
No MLE for us correct?
So really, we need to get rid of hinrich and sign Morrow and a back up PG (or get one in the draft) for less than 9 million
not trading Hinrich
not gonna happen.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Yeah but even without morrow that team's still a contender I think
So long as they stay healthy. But whatever, it ‘s not like our 3 best players are gonna go down during a crucial stretch of games and force us to start guys like jannero pargo. That’s just not gonna happen.
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 15, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
haha
recd
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Mar 15, 2010 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
Except for the Morrow part, I don’t know how you got him to play for free, but I like your style. Perhaps Paxson should hire you.
I don’t see why we couldn’t win a championship with Chris Bosh and Rose.
Rose, SG, Deng, Bosh, Noah is a very good team.
I’d think a guy like Ray Allen is more likely at SG then Morrow. A veteran on his way down willing to play for less. Anyways, if that team can’t win a championship, the Bulls aren’t winning one, b/c that’s about as good as it’s going to get for a very long time.
The idea that it would take 2 years to build around them is ridiculous though. They aren’t going to sit on Chris Bosh during his prime, they are going to go for a championship every year he is here w/ Rose if they sign him. The team is already built, it’s Rose, Noah, Deng + Superstar.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd shoot for ginobili
Yeah he’s got health concerns but that means he’ll be more affordable. And we only need him healthy come playoff time.
Brad Miller is god.
That'd work
If he will sign for cheap enough, I don’t know if I believe he will, but I was just throwing out more realistic names then Morrow. Plenty of guys would fit the bill.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
So you think Bosh is overrated?
You win the opportunity to hang out with PARGO!!! Not Jeremy Pargo the guy in college who can dunk. OUR PARGO!!!
Isn't Jeremy Pargo playing professionally in Israel?
Why not sign him so we can put the Pargo Brothers on the floor? ; )
We miss you, Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Mar 15, 2010 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Just curious...
Is anyone concerned about shelling out for a max FA (whether it’s Bosh or whoever) and having problems down the line when it comes time to re-sign Rose and Noah?
hard pail lunch hat
I'm sure Reinsdorf is
who knows what the new CBA is like. But honestly, if the Bulls cry poor after using this cap space and lose either guy in the future, we’re rooting for perennial losers.
I think it’s more of a concern if the max was ‘whoever’ instead of Chris Bosh, but if this team wants to contend they’ll have to pay people. Luckily Hinrich’s up for an extension contract runs out before Rose needs his raises.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
The hope should be that
Reinsdorf considers a Bosh/Rose/Deng/Noah team a profitable venture even when he’s paying tax (if the CBA stays the same, which it won’t).
Bosh or Bust
by JockstrapNoah on Mar 15, 2010 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
hah! So true.
So true.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Recently read (and of course it's just speculation)...
is that the top free agents (i.e. LeBron) may only be looking to sign a max 3 to 4 year contract, so that they can sign the longer term max deals on the next go around. This will allow them to maximize their ‘next’ contract while they’re still in their prime, as opposed to risking a decline in their game and losing dollars on a future contract. This will also force the team they go to to immediately build around them instead of making it a several year project.
I think it’s hogwash. In this day and age, I don’t think any of the Big 3 turn down a max offer.
"The people we lost, I'm sad we lost them because they helped us. But the organization saw something in these players. They're going to help us. They don't have any attitude problems. They just want to ball." - Derrick Rose
The second part of what you say is hogwash.
Whoever signs the superstars are not looking to make it a several year project. Wade, Bosh and LeBron are in their prime, whoever signs them is trying to win a championship right away, regardless how many years they are signed. The best players in basketball are not settling for rebuilding projects, when they can go where ever they want.
by Grinder in Training on Mar 15, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
It's being speculated (yay!) that the new CBA is going to be significantly less player-friendly.
I think most players buy into this.
They aren’t signing 3-year deals.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Exactly
Salaries are going to go down after the new CBA. Probably the maximum years too. There’s not much doubt about that. No agent is going to recommend a shorter contract in the face of this uncertainty.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
Memo to
Kirk, w/ Rose and Deng as the 1 & 2 option, we need you to put up at least 15ppg as the 3rd option, we didn’t pay you $9mill for D and intangibles, if thats the case we should’ve dumped you, and kept Thabo, because he does the same things at about $4 mill
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 15, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
the one thing people don't understand is
LeBron and Bosh are the only two FAs that you can plug right into your system and they’d be a perfect fit. With Boozer or JJ or Amare, you have to question whether those guys are more system guys, and are only All-Stars becuase they fit perfectly in a certain system. Besides, Bosh is the best pure PF in the NBA right now. We sign him, call us EC contenders. Besides, James and Wade aren’t going anywhere, and we have an open starting PF spot.
who knows. i dont even know what a pure PG really is.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Call me crazy but my solution is ......
1. Tank the remainder of the season Rose and Noah wear suits on the bench.
2. Allow Deng and Kirk to play with hope this increases their value.
3. Pray the ping pong balls bounce our way and get a top 10 pick (dumb trade with Bucks) .
4. Go after Bosh like a hooker on payday.
5. Trade Deng, Kirk and our first round picks for the next 3 years to the Cavs starting in 2011 for LBJ and if they want more other than Noah so be it.
6. Draft a sharp shooting SG this year if we tank well enough in the event the Bucks don’t swap (steal) our pick.
7. Do Not sign Joe Johnson.
8. Find a coach that can manage a team albeit a veteran or rookie. Just someone that is more concerned about winning vice hair products (Phil Jackson?)
The more I see the 2010 plan evolving; I fear seeing DRose in a Lakers uniform within the near future. I have zero faith in Bulls management. I also have this sick feeling that they (Bulls management) cannot even get one superstar & a MLE to sign this year. This makes me frustrated because I am that guy the glass is half full type person.
Im sorta confused about this whole S & T thing...
The way I understand it, these guys are unrestricted FA’s so they can go wherever they want. Meaning we can S & T for them and essentially give up nothing (like a 2nd round pick which will be better for the other team then nothing at all). So, we don’t need to offer kurt and deng in an S & T to cleveland to entice them to trade Lebron because ultimately he decides. I guess we would do it to rid the contracts (but it looks like we already passed up giving up kirk for nothing). Also, if a team like Cleveland loses Lebron, I doubt they will wanna take on those contracts.
Well I don't get why the team the player leaves has no leverage
Say team A and team B are both after player X leaving team C. Player X wants a max deal with a 6th year and both team A and team B are willing to give it to him. I don’t see why team C couldn’t hold out for the better package between teams A and B knowing that player X will sign with whoever can give him the 6th year (assuming that A and B are similarly attractive destinations).
Brad Miller is god.
by Poloplaya14 on Mar 16, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions
If team C
refuses to trade with the player’s choice of team A or B, the player can sign anyway and leave team C with nothing.
If the player threatens this, team C has to cooperate. Their position isn’t so strong that they can afford to call the player’s bluff.
Vinny: "[Thrust] means pace, it means getting the ball out, it means getting your back to the sidelines, it means extending your outlets, it means getting the ball up the court into our early offense with plenty of time."
Then they don't get the 6th year, which is a very big deal, especially with the new CBA looming.
Brad Miller is god.
The FA can take the 5 and
still make out fine, while the team is stuck with nothing.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Mar 16, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
I could be wrong .....
But a team that signs a RFA or FA seems to enable his former team to allow a trade i.e. Hedo to Raptors. I could do more research but I am retiring soon and need to find a job.
you know whats funny about david lee. i look at him and i say hes sort of athletic, but not that
explosive. but if the lane agility test is a true measure of lateral quickness, david lee is apparently better in that area than at least the following players: iggy, rose, ty lawson, westbrook, t.j. ford, jerryd bayless, devin harris, farmar, d.j. augustin, jameer nelson, deron williams and chris paul. and his lane agility time is only .35 secs short of the ridiculously quick darren collison. is that even possible?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
you just have anti-white bias.
shameful.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Mar 15, 2010 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions
He actually won the McDonald's game dunk contest
over James “Flight” White in 2001. He seemed a bit more athletic back then and in college but he’s still pretty athletic.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I just hope we can get one of these guys
This team is not one player away so there is no one guy that’s the answer in terms of having a championship team. Whoever we get will just get us that much closer and it will be up to the org. to add more pieces. Obviously some (Lebron) will have more impact than others (Lee, JJ), but any of them is an upgrade over what we have now.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
Do y'all think Al Jefferson is still something
GarPax will pursue? I would think he would be a good addition no matter what, but as a sign-and-trade chip he would basically assure us of Bosh (No one will be willing to give up a more youthful low post scoring option) while having about 12-15 million to spend on one or more other second-tier but talented high-profile free agent(s) such as Manu, Childress, Korver, Mike Miller, Outlaw, Ray Allen, Okur, Haslem, Marrow, Gay, or… Tyrus (hahahahaha cringe hahahaha).
The best thing going for us is that Bosh doesn’t wanted to play for Minnesota and L.A. doesn’t have the balls to give up Bynum for Bosh.
The worst thing going for us is that we are not yet assured that Del Negro will not be on the sidelines next year. “Better cross our fingers… in fact we better cross dicks.” Gotta love Kevin Smith’s fatass.
Chicago Bulls Management - Wasting millions on moronic rosters since 1999
by Another Afflicted Chicago Fan on Mar 15, 2010 8:20 PM CDT reply actions
if toronto had a jefferson/bargnani frontcourt they would be ranked 37th in def. efficiency.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Instead of 29th?
I don’t think they ever worried about their defensive woes. Their plan for improving team rebounding was to hope to God Bosh would improve his rebounding… Turk is allergic to the ball unless it comes to him via bounce, chest, or baseball PASS. When they signed Turk they might as well changed their jerseys to the 2007-2008 Phoenix Suns.
They would at least have a little more muscle down low, instead of two wirey but below average defenders in Bargnani and Bosh.
Chicago Bulls Management - Wasting millions on moronic rosters since 1999
by Another Afflicted Chicago Fan on Mar 15, 2010 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions
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