What can we expect from Joe Johnson?
by YaoPau on Feb 8, 2010 5:24 PM CST
247 comments
[From the Fanposts. Real cool stuff from YaoPau, supplying caution for the Bulls prospective 2010 FA signing. It's still not a given that he'd leave Atlanta given their success. But between the Bulls media pumping him up, the Arn Tellem connection, and the likely desperation (and not exactly unwarranted) from the Bulls to sign someone to a max deal, this is one of the most likely possibilities of next summer. -ed]
I keep hearing Joe Johnson is the #4 option if we strike out on LeBron/Wade/Bosh. His resume fits that ranking: 4-straight all-star appearances, 22ppg scorer, good 3pt shot, good passer, plays 40mpg with almost no injury history, and he's the offensive star of a Hawks team headed toward 55 wins.
But it's his age - he turns 29 in four months - that makes me cautious. The Bulls have a thin rotation already, and we stand to lose Tyrus, Miller, and either Hinrich/Salmons before the start of next season. With Rose and Noah still developing, and rotation pieces needing to be acquired, our window for contention if we miss LeBron/Wade is probably a couple years away.
I'd expect Johnson to remain a star at ages 29 and 30. But after that, when we'll really need him, what can we expect?
(much more after the jump...)
NBA GUARDS 31+ YEARS OLD
JJ will be 31, 32 and 33 years old the final three years of his 5-year contract. To put that into perspective, here are NBA SGs and SFs currently in that age bracket:
31: Kobe, Marion, Battier, Larry Hughes, Rip Hamilton
32: Terry, Ginobili, Mo Peterson, Desmond Mason
33: Vince Carter, Posey, Raja Bell
Ray Allen and Allen Iverson just completed their 33 year old season last year. Lots of old dudes there. Digging deeper...
THE TOP 26-28 YEAR OLD SGs IN HISTORY
Since age 26, JJ has played 8324 minutes (40mpg) with an 18.2 PER. Let's lowball this and say for JJ to be worth a max contract, he'd have to play 36 minutes per game over the next five years with a 17+ PER, OR have a slightly higher PER for less mpg, etc etc etc. To describe that in numerical terms, I'll created a formula to estimate % of max value called Score.
Score = (MP / (36 * 82 * #seasons)) * (PER / 17)).
For JJ that's (8324 / (36*82*2.6) * (18.2/17) = 116.1%. So in the last 2.6 years, he's played 16% above max value. according to this simple metric.
Now I want to see how other SGs with a similar 26-28 score held up from age 29-33. Using basketball-reference's play index, I found the 31 shooting guards since 1980 who played 6000+ minutes from age 26-28 with a 17+ PER.
The excel can be downloaded here.
ANALYZING THE RESULTS
From age 26-28, 16 of the 31 SGs "earned" a max contract, and 27 were at 85%+ of max value.
From age 29-33, 6 of the 31 SGs "earned" a max contract, and 12 were at 85%+ of max value.
Of the 12 who were close to max value, five were 1st ballot Hall of Fame talents with 20+ PERs from age 26-28 (Kobe so far, Iverson, Carter, Drexler, Jordan), four were heavy 3pt shooters (Allen, Reggie, Terry, Hornacek), and two are currently above the threshold because they are active, but may fall off soon (Jason Richardson and Manu Ginobili). The final member, Eddie Jones, checked in at 88% of max value. Many of the playmaking types like Jerry Stackhouse, Rip Hamilton, Michael Redd, and Steve Smith didn't come close.
But even more damning are these players' performances at ages 32 and 33. Of the 26 players listed who have played through at 32...
- Just 5 played at a level worthy of a max contract at age 32 (with an average of 75% of max)
- Only Michael Jordan was max-worthy at age 33 (with a player average of just 59% of max)
- Just 8 played 2000+ minutes (24+ mpg) at age 33. Five had their careers end before that season.
One other point I think worth mentioning, regarding those that DID achieve max level from age 29-33. Besides Jordan's 1993-1997 run, the others to play through 33 and make the cut were Allen Iverson (2005-2009), Ray Allen (2005-2009), Vince Carter (2006-2010), and Reggie Miller (1995-1999). My question is, if we added any of those guys during those timeframes to our current team, would we expect the Bulls to contend anytime soon? I told you I lowballed the Score metric...
SGs/SFs FALL OFF IN THEIR 30s. WILL JOHNSON BE AN EXCEPTION?
On one hand, Johnson has the athleticism, health and 3pt shooting to hold up better than, say, Jerry Stackhouse or Michael Redd. But on the other hand, two red flags stand out to me:
- Despite Johnson's impressive resume, his numbers with the Hawks - 18.3 PER, .541 TS% - really aren't that impressive. Those are Josh Howard / Michael Finley type numbers, not ones you'd commit $18+ mil a year till age 33 to.
- A dropoff at age 32 and 33 is all but guaranteed. Michael Jordan and Jeff Hornacek were the only players to maintain their numbers through that age. Jordan is Jordan, and took two years off; Hornacek logged only 14000 minutes through age 28 as a 3rd option. Comparatively, Johnson will have played 26000 minutes through age 28, with many coming as a #1.
Players like Michael Finley and Jerry Stackhouse, who once effortlessly played 38+ mpg, broke down hard by age 31. Several players in the 18 PER crowd saw their PER nosedive by age 31 (Michael Finley, Rip Hamilton, Steve Smith, Jim Paxson, Alvin Robertson). In fact, nobody with a PER below 19 from age 26-28 ended up with a 29-33 Score over max level. (Btw, since Finley keeps coming up in comparisons, I decided to look them up side by side. Really similar. You don't want to click Finley's player card to see his stats after age 30.) I'd say JJ's chances aren't good.
The counterargument is "Who cares if he falls off at age 31? I just want to get somebody, and if we get an all-star for the next two years, I'd be more than happy with that." But the goal is a championship. A 2010 lineup of Rose/Noah/JJ/Deng/Taj/1st won't contend if its rotation goes six-deep. Maybe we win 45-50 games the next two years, but then we'd have a mediocre JJ at 3 years $60 mil after that wasting years of Rose's prime.
There aren't many other options at SG, but I think we could throw big money at a PF and looking for a cheaper SG instead. Rudy Gay plays mostly forward, but if Gar thinks he can play SG, he could be a conservative addition at less than the max. He's just 23, and his numbers this season (17.0 PER, .533 TS%) are similar to Johnson's and could keep improving through his prime. Randy Foye (14.3 PER, .538 TS% at age 26) is a much cheaper option who could provide equal numbers to JJ three years from now. Anthony Morrow and JJ Redick are low PER, high TS% options.
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I am getting more and more terrified of this happening.
They have been suffering the effects of the Wallace contract for years, and I see this going the same way.
by JeffD on Feb 8, 2010 5:36 PM CST via mobile reply actions
i am so scared of this... eventuality.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Lebron or Bust.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
He isn't dumb
enough to go from a contending team to a mediocre team. He may be a jerk but he is not retarded, unless he just wants money.
The Cavs
are “a contending team” only because of LeBron. Rose/Noah/Deng >>>>>>>> Mo Williams/Old Shaq/Andy V
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
The fact that they haven't won a title with him yet tells you about their organization.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
by SoulEater7 on Feb 8, 2010 6:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well
Right now, they have a much better chance than us. The way our Org is sucking we have no right to talk shit about other teams. Since we gave the nets their 1st win.
I think the Nets had already won a game.
Seriously look at that roster. You take him off that you get a lottery team. You look at the Bulls core of Noah, Rose and Deng, Gibson thats a better future. I’m not just saying that because I’m a bulls fan. I saying if you wanna win one title stay and Cleveland. You wanna win multiple titles team up with Rose and Noah and you have a better chance. If they can move Hinrich and Salmons then you have to bring in some more help. Thats all I’m saying. I really believe his best chance to win is Chicago.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
Yes, because as we all know
LeBron’s main goal right now is to “make” the Finals. That’s really what he’s after right now.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
I think he already did that
BAHAHAHAHA that was a pretty funny finals.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
And what about the headband issue?
Have I missed it, or has no one addressed this issue? As silly as it is, we’ve seen this become a real problem with Wallace. I don’t see LeBron ever bowing to any organization that enforces no headband rule.
I think Jerry will bend that rule in this case if push comes to shove...
He knows how many fans LeBron will bring to the UC
He bent it for Ben Wallace
So, no he won’t bend it for LeBron James.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
Ummm...
He left the contending Suns to join the Hawks when they were a bad team….and he did it for the money…
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
That's right
a team that really pushed the Spurs that year and might have won had Joe not gotten hurt.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
so, bust.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 8, 2010 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
Start him at the max and decline every year by $1 million.
5 years, $75 million. Make the incentives go up to $85 million or whatever. it’s not an enormous drop in overall price, but it would make his final three years a lot more palatable.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Why would the player accept this type of contract...
When the max deal offers 10% raises per season?
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
Um... All I stated is what he would be "worth" in my eyes. Damn, you have a reading problem.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
You didn't mention "worth" anywhere in your post.
I had read your post as a contract suggestion in response to r_r.
Either way…it does not make my comment any less valid…max players are not going to agree to declining contracts.
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
I responded to a question about worth.
My fault for not writing in complete sentences.
No, it doesn’t make your comment less valid in a truth sense. It does make it completely irrelevant in a discussion sense.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
That's not argument.
That’s just contradiction!
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
long shot, but python ref.?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
You can't just frontload a contract like you can backload a contract
In the NBA, the 1st year’s salary has a set maximum value. The way players get huge deals is that the deal is allowed to increase by 10% per year. You can’t take that contract and simply reverse it, because than the year 1 salary would be over the maximum amount.
Actually it is an enormous drop in overall price
Let’s say we start him out at $15 million. The rules allow us to increase his salary by 10% per year. So if we did that we get:
Year 1: 15,000,000
Year 2: 16,500,000
Year 3: 18,150,000
Year 4: 19,965,000
Year 5: 21,961,500
That adds up to $91.5 million, significantly more than $75 million. And somebody’s going to offer him that much, so he’s not going to take $16.5 million less to come to Chicago.
okay
I just answered what I thought would be a “worthy” contract.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I'm not saying you're wrong there
I’m saying he won’t accept that deal because it’s significantly less than what he’ll get offered.
That's fine.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Draft Xavier Henry, get David Lee or (regrettably) Carlos Boozer at $15 million or less.
A part of me actually HOPES they don’t trade Hinrich and then Salmons opts in. If that happens, and the cap is only around $52-$53 million, the Bulls might be kept from hurting themselves.
That team might never be great, but it will be pretty good for the forseeable future. And if Henry turns out to be a stud, they’ll still have Rose, Deng, Lee and Noah around and in their primes as they all get better.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
i think dx has hin at like 14.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
His draft stock
has plummeted since conference play begin. His shooting percentages have fallen off a cliff and he’s shown very little consistency in his ability to get to the rim. Self has even benched him at the end of a few tight games. Not a good sign.
From watching him, he’s got a really sweet jumpshot, but he doesn’t appear to be athletic and agile enough to guard NBA SGs, and I’m not sure he has the length of a SF. On top of that, he’s not a consistent shot creator right now. It will be interesting to see where he falls on draft day.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
yea i heard many believe he should stay in school for one more year
cuz he could be a top 5 if he learns to keep consistant in his game…
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Maybe Wjb can give us a more detailed update since she's a Kansas fan.
And they’re playing @ Texas tonight on ESPN at 8 if you (or anyone else) feels like watching.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
oh hell yea
thanks, ive been wanting to watch more college basketball games this year, since im starting now to get into them a bit more, and kansas is a team i want to watch cuz they have several players that might be in the draft this year…thanks for the heads up, and yea i hope wjb chimes in at some point with updates of whats been going on with henry..
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Not huge on Henry:
I might actually prefer James Anderson – only seen him twice but he’s more athletic.
The poster formerly known as Freethefro.
by MPG on Feb 8, 2010 9:23 PM CST up reply actions
I do not want JJ.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
still in the counterargument camp
I’d be worried about Joe Johnson breaking down too, but I’m even more depressed if there was nothing (or a secondary free agent + Tyger’s magical draft pick of the day). This would be their last chance at max cap space, and with Rose they won’t be drafting high lottery again. Though I guess he could get hurt a la Wade and the Heat!
Of course it’s not Joe Johnson or nothing, maybe David Lee does sign for a lot less than the max, or Rudy Gay can be had, etc.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 8, 2010 6:04 PM CST reply actions
Yeah I mean I have similar concerns as YaoPau and everyone else
But say it plays out like this: LeBron stays in Cleveland, Bosh joins Wade in Miami, and Amare opts in. So…that leaves Lee, Boozer, and Gay as the best FAs out there, right? In my opinion JJ is the best of those 4, and while he may be older, I couldn’t really bash the signing. Rudy Gay might be younger, but he’s not on Joe Johnson’s level, plus he’s never played SG before. And he’ll probably command near-max. Might as well just sign JJ if you can.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
I don't love Gay
But there are plenty of really athletic SG/SFs who were just okay through age 23 and broke out after that. Joe Johnson is one, also Jason Richardson, Jerry Stackhouse, Al Harrington. I agree Johnson’s better than Gay will probably ever be, but there’s worse options than a guy who you can bank on giving you 35+ mpg, 18+ ppg and a 16+ PER for the next five years.
after the salmons experiment
I’m weary of just assuming that a tall, non-ball handling small forward can just easily step into the 2 guard position. Does he pass well enough? Can he handle? I don’t really see Gay doing those things when I watch Memphis, but they aren’t exactly on TV like Boston either.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 8, 2010 6:33 PM CST up reply actions
Fair point
Rose aside, a Gay/Deng/Taj/Noah lineup is hilariously bad at ballhandling, and probably below average at passing. The athleticism is too much to ignore for me though. 23 year old free agents with his combination of athleticism and skill come around basically never.
But I wonder if Gay will be on the market for so much less then Max
You may think: oh, he’s not worthy the max. But there is always some crazy guy to pay. Remember Rashard Lewis??? Take Knicks for example. They will bring someone. If all that’s left is Gay they will pay top dolar for him.
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:00 AM CST up reply actions
Put it this way
I’d be cautiously optimistic we could get both Gay and Lee for the same price we get Johnson. Both of those guys were asking for $8M to start last year and didn’t get it from their own teams. So, if push comes to shove, maybe we get them.
We unload Salmons at the deadline.
We go into next year with Kurt still on the roster, and we spend some time seeing how things shake out between Deng, Kurt and Gay. If Gay is much better at the 3, Deng is probably quite tradeable.
You could run out Rose/Kurt/Gay/Deng/Noah pretty long spurts, and substitute in Lee or Taj in for either Deng or Noah.
if the choice is Gay and Lee
versus just Joe Johnson, than I’d take Gay and Lee easily. But I have my reservations with just Gay over Johnson (never thought I’d right that before), although the age difference takes most of those away. I hope the Bulls aren’t targeting Joe Johnson as their primary free agent. I agree with YaoPau on the reasons why he isn’t a good fit.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 8, 2010 8:36 PM CST up reply actions
Also,
I’d be pretty stoked if we came away with both JJ and David Lee. Age be damned with JJ, a lineup of Rose/JJ/Deng/Lee/Noah would have explosive backcourt scoring, enough 3-point shooting (if Deng keeps up his recent trend), and would arguably be the best rebounding front court in the entire NBA. Sign me up.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
i imagine its like ebay bidding
this whole free agent thing, people talk about right now whats worth the max and whats not, but when freeagency does begin, well…guys who shouldnt be will be walking away with max contracts cuz two organizations were bidding against each other..
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Actually, if they could split their money and sign Lee and someone like Foye
I’d like that better than JJ alone. By far. Gay would be a better signing than Lee (although I’ve read Gay might get the max), as he could still end up being great. But they have to move Deng then and also still need a PF and shooting guard.
Lee and some young guard seems doable and I’d be happy with that.
by hitlesswonder on Feb 8, 2010 7:27 PM CST up reply actions
Foye is a bit better than Salmons
and that’s all.
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:03 AM CST up reply actions
Anthony Morrow could be a cheap gamble with high reward.
You’d think he’d be a fit with Rose. Tougher to judge a guy with inconsistent minutes on a Don Nelson coached team, but even if he’s not the answer, he could at least be a quality 6th man and situational guy to stretch the floor.
So even if jj can play at a star level
for two years, in those two years wouldnt rose take more steps in becoming greater. And after those 2 years, you would think joe johnson would still be a wiley defender, still have his length to defend with, and more importantly have the ability to shoot 3s. ITs not like its gonna a be a sudden drop off from star to bust.
Like tyger mentioned above, if they can give him more money now, and diminish the contract (but add incentives so that the later years could still be worth more) then it wouldnt be a bad signing.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
by piccolomair on Feb 8, 2010 6:51 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
It's about contracts
Who knows what happens to the salaries after this season, but let’s just assume the cap and salaries stay where they are. By JJ’s 3rd season, we’d have the following contracts:
JJ: ~$17 mil
Rose: 13.5 mil
Deng: 13.3 mil
Noah: ~10 mil
Total: $53.3 mil. That’s the salary cap, from four players which combined have no shot at a title if JJ’s a 15 PER guy. Deadly for a team that doesn’t pay the tax.
Jerry will pay the tax if we have a legit shot at contending
Back during the MJ years, the Bulls were one of the top spenders in the league.
Same thing happens with the sox. Jerry opens up the checkbook when the team gets good.
YaoPau just said
they have no shot at a title with that lineup, and therefore JR wouldn’t pay the tax. Probably dumping Deng for expirings at that point, or Rose ;-p
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
if i remember right piston fans were already weary of ben wallace and his decline
remember after the signing piston fans were telling us we were gonna regret it, that ben wallace had sort of dipped in terms of progress his last year with the pistons, that dip continued his first year with us, but it didnt have a huge impact on the team in general, finally that last year it seemed he gave up completely…it was sudden, it was gradual.
On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!
Ben Wallace was far from great here but he was also a scapegoat
His contribution was not all that far from Detroit
His numbers in his last season in Detroit
11 RPG / 1.8 SPG / 2.2 BPG / 1.9 APG / 7 PPG
His numbers the first season with the Bulls
10 RPG / 1.4 SPG / 2.0 BPG / 2.4 APG / 6 PPG
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:08 AM CST up reply actions
Fodder for a novel
This story is compelling. We will be debating our 2010 moves for years. It seems to me Joe Johnson would be our best fit for at least two years. But as YaoPau points out who knows how happy we would feel 2013. I am glued to BaB through July.
Yes he will not be worth his contract at the end
But that’s not as bad as it sounds. When JJ nears the end of his deal, his expiring contract will be a valuable trade asset.
Also I think Rose/JJ/Deng/GIbson/Noah could contend if we manage to put together a good bench. We won’t contend in 2010, but in 2011, we’ll be able to use our MLE and our bi-annual exception to add a couple guys. We should be able to attract an solid veteran hungry for a ring that’s willing to sign for the minimum, and maybe James Johnson and our 2010 1st rounder will have turned into good players by then. That looks like a contender to me.
Impossible
If I remember correctly, VDN doesn’t play people who have the same first and last initials.
Joe Johnson could never be.
Off subject sorry
But Aaron Gray is in the game for New Orleans.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
I wholeheartedly agree with the evidence presented in this post and the general thrust of it
For those reasons, I’m generally of the opinion that Joe Johnson will be a bad thing.
At this point, what I think is really the best thing is probably to get Amare and a lesser piece, not lock in any huge salaries, and see what happens under the new CBA.
Shit, maybe I’m turning into Jerry Reinsdorf, but this seems like such an obvious no-brainer financially, and it probably maximizes our on-court production too.
Option 1 is we don’t lock in, and have a potentially 50 win team.
Option 2 is we lock in to lots of salary for quite a while, and have a potentially 50 win team.
by Sports2 on Feb 8, 2010 7:57 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
That's where I'm at, too.
They’re going to spend all of their cap space this summer because they’ve been selling that to fans. Either get Stoudemire and go into 2011 with some space (because Noah will be getting a pay increase that year and I’m assuming they’ll want to bring Asik over at some point). Or, like I said, don’t trade Salmons and Hinrich and if Salmons opts in, you get by with spending your money on a good 27 year old PF. It’s still a five-year contract, but the rest of it would be spent on something shorter.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Crazy thought considering how much I've been on the dump Kirk for expirings bandwagon, but
if the alternative is blowing all the cap space on Joe Johnson, I’d rather just keep Kirk, trade Salmons for a guaranteed expiring and attempt to sign David Lee. Rose, Kirk, Deng, Lee, Noah is a good starting five that actually doesn’t fit together horribly. We’d still need to acquire some shooters to put around Rose eventually on the perimeter (under this plan, if we got Lee for around 11-12 mil a year, I think we still have some money to pursue depth), but Deng is improving his 3 point shooting (finally) and Lee has turned himself into a very, very good midrange shooter at the 4 spot (he’s shooting 50.8% on 10-15 foot shots and 44% on 16-23 foot jumpers), which would help with the spacing. Deng, Lee, and Noah would be the best rebounding frontcourt in the league (it really wouldn’t be close), which would help with some of the scoring problems that the team would have (because that team lacks a real efficient scorer / creator). If Rose continues his superstar level career arc (he’s been playing much like a super-sized version of young Allen Iverson of late), then that team would have the potential to be scary good as a starting five. Stock the bench with cheap shooters. Bring Asik over to back up the big positions and you might have something. It’s definitely better than strapping yourself for what looks like a sure albatross contract in Joe Johnson. But, because the Arn Tellem is an Org. / Jerry guy I imagine we’ll end up with JJ and we’ll be good in the immediate future, but we’ll be screwed for the longterm. Again, because this organization has no real plan for building a contender, only for building teams with 45-50 win ceilings.
Side note: YP’s comparison of Joe Johnson to Michael Finley is eerily accurate (looking at their rate statistics over their careers at the age of 28) and it’s even scarier when you look at what happened to Finley during his 29-33 year old years AND consider that Joe Johnson has played 9 seasons, whereas Finley had only played 7 when he was 28. It comes out to about 3600 extra minutes that Johnson has logged over where Michael Finley was at the same age (or about 100 games (the equivalent of an 82 game season and a long playoff run) at 36 mpg). So really, Joe Johnson is closer to the 29 year old Michael Finley than the 28 year old Finley. Finley really only had one good season after 29 and that was when he was 30, then his PER dropped off from a 17.8 to a 14.3 and continued to steadily decline every year after. Just say no to Joe Johnson.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 9, 2010 12:38 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I am so sick of The Organization, media and ignorant fans drooling over Kurt,
I just want him gone for almost anything.
We miss you, Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Feb 10, 2010 4:10 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed!,
and whats up w/ all the David Lee love?, he is good player, but I want a post up 4 that can shoot, not a 4 that can’t post but shoot.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 10, 2010 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
You know what?
I don’t really know either. I do like him but I don’t think he makes us that much better. I think he’s an upgrade for sure but he doesn’t have a post up game (not that I’ve seen and I watch Knicks games more than I would like to). It won’t hurt but we really need somebody that can get to the line more and get easy buckets when we half to play in the halfcourt. For what we need, he’s the 4th pf on my list. But given salaries, age, injury history etc, he may be a better value than Stat or Boozer.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
Melo has an ETO
for after next season. But he’ll likely negotiate an extension before the new CBA kicks in. Otherwise, he’ll not terminate his deal and be the barometer for what a franchise player will earn under the new CBA barring injury.
'thrust'
haha
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
Honestly, if Taj is starting on your team, you're not contending for a title
Just sayin’.
This stuff is totally bumming me out. (But nice work YaoPau)
Thanks a ridiculous thing to say.
Taj has the potential to be every bit as good, if not better than Horace Grant, to name just one solid role-player on Championship teams.
by badnewsintennisshoes on Feb 8, 2010 10:11 PM CST up reply actions
Taj can be solid
But you went too far there.
Taj has the potential to be every bit as good, if not better than Horace Grant
Even if Taj becomes the next Horace Grant
we don’t have MJ anymore, remember?
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:10 AM CST up reply actions
Horace Grant? Really?
Maybe more like Chris Wilcox. Boy the Taj Kool-Aid cup has runeth over. lol
Horace could actually catch passes.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
exactly, all yu need is 2 top 50 of all time players with him.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
yep. i guess you arent scott layden.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
And a 6'11" forward who can create his own shot and make threes.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2010 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
You know, we also thought the Bulls and Tyler Hansbrough was a done deal
But it never happened. I know the Bulls didn’t have the chance to trade up for him, but I’m just saying . . .
I’m pretty much done “assuming” they’re getting certain players.
Or getting ride of certain players for that matter . . . I never thought Noc would be traded last year and I still don’t see Hinrich being gone, but things happen out of nowhere.
But I guess it makes for good conversation
Excellent post
Personally I think the need for a big outweighs the SG need anyway. There is a glaring hole at the 4 whereas the SG can really be just someone that can knock down open 3’s and defend at this point.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I do too
we need to get Bosh, STAT, Boozer or Lee. We need a PF who can score the rock and a SG who can play a little D and stroke it. If we can somehow pry K-Mart from the Kings, I would be ecstatic
Homecoming
uh
that’s not the guy who plays D and shoots threes, that’s the guy who scores a lot efficiently and plays D almost as well as Gordon used to. Maybe a bit worse.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
Personally
I’m in the Anthony Morrow camp. He will come extremely cheap, and could walk on to this team and be the best shooter by a mile. Aside from Wade or LeBron coming here, my favored 2010-2011 lineup is Rose/Morrow/Deng/Bosh/Noah
with whatever we can get off the bench off the bench. That team wouldn’t compete for a title, but they would lockdown a playoff spot for sure, and could build off of that towards a title very quickly.
The Beatles. The Fab Four. The greatest band of all time. John, Paul, George and Scottie Pippen.
why does everyone assume Morrow will come so cheap? He's the best 3 point shooter in the league
and he’s a restricted free agent that I’m sure the Warriors are going to want to retain. It would probably be easier to try and pry Kelenna Azabuike away from them than Morrow, since KA is an UFA.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 9, 2010 4:04 AM CST up reply actions
ooo, id love some kelenna. he rocks.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Monta Ellis for Kirk
i think Monta Ellis for Kirk Hinrich will be a good move
yeah
would be nice but ain’t gonna happen
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:14 AM CST up reply actions
Monta Ellis for Kirk
we can give TT to sweeten the deal for GS
he would be a prospect for next Ben Gordon
which I have no problem if we can’t get a more all around guy
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:13 AM CST up reply actions
yer Morrow is sick
Good solid shooter for such little money $736,420 its actually kinda funny his worth that much
Lakers could really use Hinrich.
Parker was working Fisher over. That guy is done.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
by SoulEater7 on Feb 8, 2010 11:03 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
I thought he was done last year too but he just has an uncanny ability
to knock down clutch threes.
maybe with a better player they dont need that clutch 3?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Fisher was done last year
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
by Prevenge on Feb 10, 2010 1:57 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
But they always
seem to dust his ass off from a timely 3 in the playoffs
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 10, 2010 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
Is this made up?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/342304-breaking-news-bulls-swing-blockbuster
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
This does not build confidence in its accuracy:
Rookie Forward Jerome James.
We miss you, Ben Gordon!
by Granny Waiters on Feb 8, 2010 11:13 PM CST up reply actions
simple mistake.
Whats with the picture? Whoever did this need to be put in jail.
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
whos getting donyell marshal though?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Of course, it's Bleacher Report. Any dummy can post on there.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
Is that why I always find that blog to be crappy?
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wondering through a forest.-Neil Funk
I don't have a huge problem with Joe Johnson
My problem is when I hear that he’s their second option and that they are “targeting” him. I always saw him as kind of a fallback if we can’t get any bigs or Lebron/Wade. Or perhaps some kind of scenario where we get him PLUS a big guy like STAT or Bosh. But he’s one of our main targets? Really? I don’t like it.
Neil takes the fun out of funk
Jerry's obviously not gonna target JJ over LeBron/Wade or even STAT or Bosh
Jerry’s primary goal is to fill the seats, and he knows that JJ isn’t as exciting as those other guys.
I don't mind signing JJ, but you better get someone like Boozer also.
The Bulls could also use this years 1st round pick to draft a project at the SG position, so when JJ turns 32 or 33 and starts to decline we have a replacement in the waiting. I do like Joe Johnson’s game, because he does not rely of athleticism and plays on the floor. His game is about strenght, shooting and ball-handling.
I think he would still be effective at 32 or 33 years old because of that, a lot like Ray Allen (34) was before this year. I think a starting 5 of : Rose, Johnson, Deng, Boozer and Noah is pretty formidable. We would have all of our back-ups for the front line in Taj, JJ and Asik as well. We could and probably will re-sign Miller at a reduced rate as well.
We draft a SG / combo guard in the 2010 draft (Elliot Williams – Memphis) and sign a veteran PG to back up Rose with whatever $$ we have left and if we are over the cap use the MLE to sign a guy like Blake. Then our team would look like this :
PG – Rose / Blake / Williams
SG- Joe Johnson / Williams
SF – Deng / JJ
PF – Boozer / Taj / Richardson
C – Noah / Miller / Asik
I don’t care what anyone says that is one hell of a team.
Homecoming
A few comments
First off, I believe we don’t get the MLE is we start off under the cap.
Second, I’d like to bring back Miller, but any money we use to sign him with is money we can’t use on other FAs, per NBA rules. So doing that is a little dicey. But I think Taj and Asik are just enough in terms of frontcourt depth (assuming we do add a starting PF).
Third, who the hell is richardson?
Other than that, getting JJ and Boozer is certainly possible is Salmons and Hinrich come off the books, but we’d have to rely on Boozer taking significantly less than the max. It’s much more realistic to shoot for something like Bosh/Stoudemire/Boozer + Allen/Ginobili since the latter 2 won’t get close to the max.
Ginobli doesn't play
too injured prone
by JustAnotherFan on Feb 9, 2010 6:16 AM CST up reply actions
you probably dont realize this, but lots of bulls fans think chris richards should start now.
so this guy has him pencilled into the bulls long term plans. only hes called him “richardson” here.
either that or Q richardson is going to be the bulls 3rd string PF.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Boozer is not going to get the max from anyone.
If we dump both Salmons and Kirk and the salary cap is a projected 55 mill we would have over 30 million in cap-room. We cold give each JJ and Boozer a starting salary of 15 mill a piece ( the max starts at 16.5 mill). Once we are over the cap we can use the MLE. We could always re-sign Miller at a later date due to the fact that we have his bird-rights and can go over the cap to re-sign him. and I meant Richards not Richardson sorry.
Homecoming
Boozer won't get the max
But JJ will, meaning if we give him 16.5 mil, we only have 13.5 mil. Can we get Boozer for that? It’s possible, but unlikely.
And I believe you’re wrong about Miller. If we want to use the cap room afforded to us by Miller’s contract coming off the books, we’d have to renounce his bird rights. This prevents teams from abusing the cap. Otherwise, a team like Miami could sign 2 max FAs and THEN resign D-Wade using his bird rights. That’d simply be unfair, and I’m fairly certain you can’t do that.
Actually we might be under the cap by $32 mil to $33 mil last time I checked.
That would all depnd on the cap for next year. It should be $54 to $55 mil year. If thats the case we should be able to offer the max of $16.5 and still have $15 a year left to spend on a secong player. I someone like Boozer ot STAT would turn that down to play for a contender. Additionally if we were willing to give the max to another player we simply, do a sign and trade involving Taj or JJ and we would clear the cap-space.
Wade 2010!!!!!
You have to take into account the 5-7 roster holds we're gonna have
Each roster spot not filled by a player means we have to set aside the nba minimum to sign that player, meaning that’s about 400K less in cap room. Multiply by 5, and that’s $2 million less to spend.
But all this predicates on clearing Hinrich and Salmons, which has yet to happen.
I think JJ will get the max from someone
at least he will if he leaves Atlanta. I see them making a competitive offer but not a full max deal.
That has me really thinking he goes to New York if they strike out on LeBron/Wade/Bosh. They will have the money burning in their pocket, and they could spend their way out of a Joe Johnson max contract if it turns out to be a mistake. Plus the D’Antoni connection.
I’d wonder how Johnson could justify leaving a pseudo-contender for the Knicks, but if it’s a LOT more money it wouldn’t be the first time he downgraded teams.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
Don't the Hawks have some serious questions surrounding their ownership?
Mike Woodson was supposed to be fired at least half a dozen times, so while the roster may be doing great things, the front office could be in shambles. JJ could have faith in NY’s deep pockets.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2010 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
yeah, while they do have a front office
they may not even legally be able to go over the tax due to their split ownership being in court.
They do have Josh Childress’ rights if Joe Johnson leaves. They did offer Johnson 4/$60 already, so they may do something similar in the offseason.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 10, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
I really don't see anybody wanting to go to the Knicks...
They probably have by far the least amount of returning talent out of all the teams with cap space.The only way they’re going to get anybody is if they offer a player significantly more money than anyone else is willing to
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 10, 2010 12:09 AM CST up reply actions
that's what I'm saying
the Knicks may offer the max to Johnson since they can, and nobody else will take it, and that is significantly more than others are willing to. Unless others are willing to. I hope the Bulls aren’t willing to.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 10, 2010 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
The Knicks
could Allan Houston a Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 10, 2010 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
First...
Unless the Bulls sign and trade for someone, they will not have the MLE to use on anyone this offseason….
Second, the Bulls will have to renounce Brad Miller (thus eliminating his cap hold) if they are signing any max free agent…they will not have his Bird rights to go over the cap to sign him…they could keep Miller and his Bird Rights if they acquire the free max free agent via sign and trade…
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
How high would his caphold be?
Plus we wouldn’t be desperate because we have Asik coming next year baby!
Wade 2010!!!!!
Asik can only be signed with cap space or cap exceptions..
There is no guarantee that the Bulls will have the space or exceptions to bring him over next year…
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
by Dionysus2.0 on Feb 10, 2010 11:32 PM CST up reply actions
Are you sure about that?
Can’t we always go over the cap to sign our own draft picks?
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 10, 2010 11:48 PM CST up reply actions
not 2nd rounders
because they’re not held to a salary scale, they have to be signed using the same rules as free agents, cap space or exceptions.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
That blows
Any chance he signs for the minimum? Anyone know what he stands to make in Europe?
I'd be ok with rudy gay and david lee
It has the potential to be a better version of the Championship Pistons. But I wouldn’t be mad with the Org if they sign a solid PF to go with JJ (and that means clearing cap) as Joe Johson decline would match Rose’s rise.
However I still believe Wade’s coming!!!! lol
Everyone talking about who we might get
but we still don’t have a coach. Lee is putting up good numbers in D’antoni system would he put up the same in a bulls uniform. Joe Johnson numbers are good but his overall team talent is way better (except point guard). I don’t see JJ leaving the Hawks because he already left a sweet thing with the Suns to get his money. He would really have to be selfish and greedy not see what he and this current roster he has can do in the future. Rudy Gay is putting up some good numbers in a contract year but in all fairness OJ mayo and Zach are really making the Grizz win games especially Zach.
I keep seeing Gay as a potential addition
Isn’t he an RFA? Are most assuming the Grizz won’t match an offer sheet?
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
I believe the Grizz will match any offer to Gay
The owner seems to understand now to make money you have to spend the money especially if the Grizz make the playoffs in the tough West.
that's kind of what i expect
i wasn’t sure if there was some information out there indicating anything to the contrary. they aren’t in the best market, but i can’t imagine them letting gay go.
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
I read that they're limiting
what they spend on their roster because they have to control expenses. (I think it was a post by S2.) So if a team offers Gay a deal of 12+ mil, they will not match. At least, that’s what I pulled from the article.
thanks
i figured there had to have been something out there indicating that gay could be pried away, otherwise he wouldn’t be brought up as much as he has.
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
and would Gay leave if the Grizz make the playoffs
or even stay competitive in the playoff picture and come to the bulls who may miss the playoffs in a weak Eastern conference.
well it isn't up to gay is it?
i guess he could pull a joe johnson
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
I doubt it
even though Joe left the suns for more money he was miserable for many years until the past couple of seasons he now see the fruit of his patience. all players as they get older want to be known as winners because as we know if your winning you get more money (endorsements). Joe is not going to want to get in another rebuilding effort.
reply fail?
if so, what i meant was that johnson had asked the suns not to match the offer sheet, the suns ended up agreeing to a sign and trade (if i’m not mistaken). gay could do the same with memphis. this way, memphis could get some value back and not have a disgruntled player on their hands making near max money.
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
good point
but for that to happen the Grizz will want deng and I don’t see the Grizz wanting Deng who is less athletic with even more limited ball handling skills. I figure the bulls could sign tyrus and package Deng for gay but would you want that cause I don’t think that fair value?
yeah i dont think the bulls match up
i just meant in general, that he could get out of memphis via the joe johnson route (not necessarily with the bulls).
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
OK but it doesn't help us Bulls fans
cause now the org. been telling the general public wait till 2010. but if you look at all the current top notch FA I don’t see any coming to the bulls (maybe D.Wade but that a pipe dream and that only would happen if MIA doesn’t make the playoff at all and Pat riley pulls a gar forman in GM duties) we are limited in cap space due to our cap’n and the fish. we devalued our most exciting player Tyrus (before D. rose came along) thus he no longer holds value we have an inept coach with no offensive philosophy beside top of the key pick and roll. would you want to come to the bulls if you wanted to win a championship right away? (all the top FA are uber competitive looking to win, besides maybe Stat and gay who are looking for the money)
yeah
all i was saying is that i dont think gay is a viable option for the bulls is all
We just need to execute better - Lovie Del Negro
The Bull's FA signing, if any, will likely be one of
1) Joe Johnson
2) Carlos Boozer
3) David Lee
Of those, I actually might like Lee the best.
There’s a good chance the Bulls sign no significant free agent. They are a conservative organization, and pretty risk averse. And if they decide that Johnson isn’t worth the max, I actually would agree with that. Signing Johnson to a max deal increases the likelihood that Rose gets dealt rather than signed to a big deal to stay in Chicago.
by hitlesswonder on Feb 9, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
Lee is putting up some great numbers
but he has the benefit of playing for a real coach and established system do you think that will be the same for him if we sign him and still have vinny as our coach.
His numbers were good under Isiah too
It’s not just the system. He’s a pick and pop guy and a very good rebounder. That’s not going to change no matter who he plays for.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I also remember our frugal owner saying
that he will only pay max dollar and even go over the tax if he felt that a player would enhance their chances of playing in and winning a championship.
I assume
the post below was a reply to me and this is the follow up? I don’t think any one of these free agents, short of Lebron or Wade, would make us a contender. Even Bosh or Stat wouldn’t be enough if just added to what we currently have. There will need to be more moves made to get to that point.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I forgot
I live in NY but really don’t pay the knicks any mind. I agree his numbers were good even under Isiah but is that enough for us to really challenge the top teams in the East. and plus lee really likes playing in NYC and I think they are going to find a way to get him the money.
Interesting. The one thing Joe Johnson has in his favor is his passing ability.
Having strong passers outside of the point guard position has a value that I think the boxscore metrics tend to undervalue. He may look like Finley as a scorer and a guy playing a ton of minutes, but Johnson has more versatile abilities and PER probably undervalues Johnson a bit. That doesn’t mean he should be the Bulls third option, but there are actually worse things than getting Joe Johnson.
I think the passing thing is a great point.
I mean, just look at how the Bulls’ offense has flourished with Kurt in the starting lineup instead of Salmons. Salmons is shooting better and has a higher PER, but Kurt actually passes the ball and is a quality facilitator, resulting in a more fluid, effective offense than what we had before (one with 2 black holes in Fish and Deng on the wings). So even when Joe Johnson is 33, he’ll still be able to hit threes and pass, two things that don’t really deteriorate all that much with age. This certainly wouldn’t be “Ben Wallace Part 2” as so many people seem to be predicting.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
i wouldnt think his passing skill would diminish with age, but isnt the ability to create for others
just an extension of being able to create for oneself? so that as jj gets older and his ability to be creative off the dribble wanes, his ability to create for others will too. its not as though johnson passes in the context of some dynamic, motion offense. jj creates by pounding the ball into the floor. he dribbles a ton and has found his success in mike woodsons iso-friendly offense. i too love the idea of having passers all over the floor (and maybe this is all something the right coach can address), but i worry that johnson has a specific way of creating for others that is neither intangible as scotter suggested, nor invulnerable to age as illini suggested.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
"as intangible" and "as invulnerable"
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
Well, it's not like Kurt is an explosive playmaker by any means
I think that a 33-year-old JJ will still be able to make plays off the bounce as well as, if not better than, the current, 29-year-old version of Kirk Hinrich. You do bring up an interesting point though.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
When he turns 32 he will still be somewhat effective with a expiring contract
Im sure we could then ship him off to some team looking for someone to push them over the top. I totally agree with your post Marlo Stanfiled.
Homecoming
For sure!
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I beg to differ
Kirk Hinrich’s ast% this year: 21.5
JJ’s: 21.3
Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to compare Kirk to JJ. I’m well aware this is largely because JJ creates for himself a lot more, but all I’m trying to say is that bringing in JJ won’t increase ball movement. Instead, he gives us an all-star scoring option to complement Rose w/o sacrificing ball movement.
Ben Wallace passed too
and played defense, and rebounded, which are all things that should hold up fairly well with age. And in a way they did. Since Wallace signed the contract, he’s played in 86% of his teams’ games, and averaged 30mpg in those games with a PER of 13.7. Not bad for a guy who signed at age 32 with a PER around 17.
If JJ’s yearly PERs went something like 18, 18, 16, 14, 13, would you be happy with that? That’s an average of 15.8, really not so bad overall.
15.8 PER for a guy who's a pretty crummy defender (despite his size) on a huge deal? No thanks. That really is "so bad."
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
by fundamentallysound on Feb 10, 2010 1:53 AM CST up reply actions
Finley had a 20 AST% from age 24-27
He doesn’t pass at all now, but he used to pass as often from the SG/SF position as Johnson currently does. I agree that Johnson’s more versatile though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his falloff is more gradual than Finley’s. But that still doesn’t say much for his chances of playing effectively for the second half of his contract.
Finley's career high AST% is basically Joe Johnson'scareer avg.
Johnson isn’t Magic Johnson, but he’s significantly better than Finley. Finley’s assists numbers were higher back then, but he wasn’t a better passer back then.
That's not a fair comparison though
JJ used to play a ton of PG before Bibby came aboard. Now that Atlanta has a bunch of PGs, Johnson plays the wing exclusively and his assist numbers match Finley’s. To me, JJ’s AST% says more about his versatility than his passing.
I want Rudy Gay.
He’s just a baby, is already almost as effective as Joe Johnson and will make ~20-25 million less throughout his contract.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
or not
…and will make ~20-25 million less throughout his contract.
Not if the Knicks need to make a splash…
His max is
~12 million, as he’s been in the league for less time and therefore can’t make as much as Johnson, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, etc. Those guys will make ~16 million annually, and assuming all those guys get at least five year deals, the difference adds up.
I think that’s how max deals work, although I’m still a bit confused with max deals, as McGrady, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan and Jermaine Oneal(????) are all making 20+, well above the max.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
i believe it has something to do with the minimum
raise a player gets on the new contract, which allows them to go above the max iirc
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
Thanks.
Hopefully Tyger can elaborate on this topic.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
yeah, i'm not well versed
in all the salary rules, but it has something to do with their previous contracts, and being eligible for certain raises which are exceptions to the rule.
also i believe that the max rule only applies to the first year of the contract, meaning they will go over the max in the next years of their contracts typically.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
Yeah.
I checked out the Salary Cap FAQ and what you said looks pretty accurate.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
My Theory
I believe within the last couple decades medical technology has vastly improved.
So much has change since the 90’s, the 2000’s, and now its already 2010…
These modern day athletes have access the best foods and supplements… the lastest and most technologically advanced exercise equipment… and the best health care available…
I think that its perfectly feasable that players in the future (maybe in 10-20 years) will be able to player at a high level for much longer during their careers.
Thanks to innovations in gene therapy and nano technology.
With gene therapy, scientist can essentially alter the human DNA… to their choosing…
I imagine a scenario like this…
Player A request that scientist “genetically correct” all “flaws” that are found in his DNA.
Player A would be basically upgrading his body through science.
He or (she) could have doctors in the near future (or perhaps even now…) to correct the following:
Eye Sight
Eyes that deterriate much slower. Eyes that can see farther and much sharper. No need for contacts. Eyes that have much more focus when viewing the 4 dimensional world. (Although scientist believe that we could be living in 10th dimenions)
Endurance
Scientist could potentially correct the genes that regulate Endurance. Players could potentially play for much longer and the feeling of fatigue could be drastically reduced.
Aging
This is actually the most important correction… so in a sense it completely overwrites the last two items that I listed. Scientist could correct the “aging” gene. Player A could age much slower… and be in his “prime” years longer. Being 30 years old could may as well have no relavance.
One person that has inspired me of this possibility today is Steve Nash. He is 36 years old and is averaging 18 Points 3 Rebounds and 11 Assists as of today. Now I have no idea if he even know what gene therapy is… but think… If you were a Millionaire Athlete… would YOU look for the lastest advances in Medical Technology that you could use to your advantage? Technology that the common man would think would be unavailable… the difference between the common man and the millionaires… they could afford it.
So I don’t know if Steve Nash has access to the latest gene therapy technology. But I have a tiny suspicion that its “feasable.”
Putting up those numbers at that age are very impressive… especially in todays NBA… which is much more faster paced and in an age where being a “monster” athlete is commonplace.
Then theres the idea of nano technology. Microscopic sized machines inserted into a players bloodstream… these machines could regulate and increase… oxygen levels… adrenaline levels… endorphine levels…
These tiny machines could repair any muscle or cartilage damage… while a player is on the court.
All this may seem so far off the the future. But do not undermine the American Government… they test “everything.” The military is definitely testing these technologies on soldiers and “possibly” civilians as we speak. Civilians such as million dollar athletes that would benifit from it. I think its feasable that the government can be test ingthem on modern day athletes… Statistics… the are valueable data…
Did you know that scientist have already doubled the lifespan of all non-mammals such as worms, frogs, and fruit flys. And have done some for some mammals.
I am glad that Obama revived funding for stem cell and genetic research. That was a “tiny” move he made for humanity. But the flaw of capitalism will make is so that only the rich elites have access to this technology… for now… unless there is a complete overhaul in the distrubution of wealth.
So back to my mainpoint, I believe hopefully within the next 10 to 20 years… advances genetic therapy, nanotechnology, and stem cell research. ( stem cells basically can be used to grow any organ or tissue…) will allow humanity to stay in their “prime” years for much longer. Players could put up amazing numbers when they are in their late 30’s. Players could maybe player for longer…
The younger generation of people or “players” in this case will greatly benefit from the availability of such technology…
Many todays Athletes are using it as we speak…
cough Lebron James… I wouldn’t be suprised… he’s AMAZin.
Derrick Rose? Hes a genetic freak at times…
One question I leave for whomever put forth the time to actually read what I typed…
“Will this great technology be only exclusive the rich elites that run our world? Will the commonman such as you and I benefit?”
by 420man! on Feb 9, 2010 2:39 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Was this story sent to Boers and Bernstein?
Bernsy is talking about some complicated piece he’s gonna discuss soon about a potential FA he has long thought the Bulls should go after, and I’m pretty sure he’s talking about JJ.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Signed on to what?
BlogABull?
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
yes, because i am also listening to B&B
and I remembered seeing this article but didnt read it.
Jones,Kotsay,Vizquel < Thome
Ah..
I see. I’m listening to the score online and only now did I hear him mention where the article is from.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Same.
You know what else is cool? Bernsy admitted to doing this more than once. He says he often goes to these type of sites for information that isn’t written in mainstream media, i.e. Tribune, Suntimes and CSN. It’s likely that plenty of other media personalities in this city check out this site.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
cool
I listen every day, just a bit late via the podcasts. Did he mention the URL? that’s all I care about :-p
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
best case scenario
I’d feel pretty bad if it was credit for YaoPau’s fine work. B&B LOVE Joe Johnson, I’m interested in reading how they respond to this.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 4:30 PM CST up reply actions
I sent him an email last week comparing Gay and Johnson,
and while its wasn’t as deep as YaoPau’s piece, he read it and kinda agreed with the premise, but said Gay would be a problem if Luol is still here. His point was valid, but my idea was mostly getting Gay if Luol is shipped out(though i wouldn’t mind having him play the two, either).
But this piece pretty much shattered the Joe Johnson love. It makes it very clear that signing Johnson would be a short term gain, long term/overall pain type of thing. Looks like he’s off of the sign Joe Johnson ship. He loves this statty stuff and this piece got a good 5 minutes(maybe more) on the air.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
neat.
I remember your email, it was very good. I send emails once in a while, mostly about CBA fact-checking :)
I’m not surprised they would jump off the Joe Johnson ship if it wasn’t deemed ‘perfect’. They are very much in the ‘titles or bust’ camp of championship building, to the point where even if the Bulls got Bosh they’d deem it pointless since they’d lose to LeBron. It’s a bit frustrating.
I’d still take Joe Johnson if the alternative is holding out for a more perfect addition. Though I sincerely doubt they hold their chips this offseason, they’ve spent too much time ‘planning’ for it.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed on all fronts.
That titles or bust thing can get old. Lately, with Derrick picking up his game, they’ve given the Bulls more air time. I also enjoy when Jason gets some air time. He knows the Bulls better than any other media personality in the city, IMO.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
Congrats...
Your Fanpost just got a shout-out on AM – 670 Score!!! Blog a Bull hits the mainstream, and they spelled out YauPau!
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
Wow
that’s good stuff. I was on yahoo sports and so a link to one of yfbb’s posts under the Chicago Bulls team page. BaB really is becoming mainstream. There is even a freakin’ sponsor for God’s sake! I also found out Brandon Roy would be out through the All Star Break and miss the game from ESPN referencing Blazer’s Edge! Blogs are taking over!
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
To validate that even further,
if you google “Chicago Bulls Blog,” BAB shows up first, Sam Smith shows up second. That made my afternoon.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
The Bulls shrink like a dick in cold water.
this will all come in handy when I'm trying to look cool at all-star weekend.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 9, 2010 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
Ugh...
Spelled out Y A O P A U.
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
Hey, pretty cool!
I can’t listen to radio at work so I missed the bit, but awesome that B&B reads this site. Is there a link to the podcast? I’d like to listen when I get home.
Next up, a new morning show
YFBB and Mike North!
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
with YaoPau doing weather.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 9, 2010 6:40 PM CST up reply actions
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