BP's SCHOENE projections: Joe Johnson is an even worse idea than you'd think
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 24, 2010 4:27 PM CST
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PrintNot sure how refined Kevin Pelton's new toy (projecting using comparables) is yet, but it fits with what YaoPau (and thanks for the shoutout, KP!) said earlier about Joe Johnson:
There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson's statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson's ilk--above-average starting wings--have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson's top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal for Johnson could end up very ugly.
As Hoopinion points out, this projection of 2010 free agents has 15 players with a higher cumulative Wins-over-replacement over the next three years higher than Joe Johnson, including Tyrus Thomas (and Thomas has a higher mark than every PF outside of Bosh).
That's in the first three years, not the next three that I think everyone accepts could get real ugly.
Note that Manu seems still very underrated (though saying it doesn't account for injury sort of nixes the whole idea in projecting the guy at this point), and David Lee is comparable to Amare and superior to Boozer.
What it also hammers home is that beyond LeBron/Wade/Bosh it's not that getting another guy would be consolation as much as combining two of them would be consolation.
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Well to me JJ is a plan C move.
The Bulls didn’t let these blue chips walk for just JJ. But if paired with a Bosh thats an -A move that might pay off for maybe 4ish years to me.
As Hoopinion points out, this projection of 2010 free agents has 15 players with a higher cumulative Wins-over-replacement over the next three years higher than Joe Johnson, including Tyrus Thomas (and Thomas has a higher mark than every PF outside of Bosh).
Thats kinda disturbing news.
Another factor is how do player react once given big money contracts. Do they get fat or will they play at the same level?
Beasley spent the first two quarters like he was wandering through a forest.-Neil Funk
speaking of Plan C
this projection backs up the fanpost from today.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 24, 2010 4:49 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah I would perfer Wade, but he is only a year younger than JJ
but depends more on his athleticism than JJ. I think Billups is a more accurate person to compare Joe Johnson to. I know they play different positions, but they play virtually the same game.
Both are big strong shooters who are good at passing the ball. I dont remember Steve Smith being big at all (Damn i’m old!). JJ is 6-7 and weights 240 pounds easily making him one of the biggest SG’s in the NBA, if not the biggest. Playing next to Rose would cover a lot of his decline which should start around the age of 32.
He would have to be paired next to an SF, who could guard quicker SG’s like Ariza did with the Lakers. He would also need a back-up, so his minutes could be cut down once he gets to his early to mid-30’s.
I still think he is a good player and I think people are over thinking his decline. Billups is not the player he was with the Pistons, but he is still averaging 20 and 6 for the Nuggets at age 33. I swear everyone on this blog is 18 or something, 30 is not that old even for an NBA player.
The Bulls need a 2 guard and if Wade does not come we could do a lot worse than Joe Johnson like Mike Miller.
Wade 2010!!!!!
Mike Miller
is pretty much a taller, better Kirk. He’s actually good at everything the org praises Kirk for.
Granted, he’s nothing compared to JJ, but he will literally be ten times as cheap.
I would rather have Mike Miller at 5 mill than Joe Johnson at 50 mill.
"I want people to fear me"- Derrick Rose.
well Kirk's above-average skill is wing defense
Miller does not excel at that.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 2:07 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with you here.
No need to overpay someone when you can get solid value with Miller. He has a high basketball IQ is unselfish and can hit an open shot.
The Dude Abides
Mike Miller sucks at defense and is a good shooter.
Kirk HInrich on the other hand sucks at shooting and plays good defense. With that being said I would be fine with Bosh and Miller as our free-agent pick-ups.
Wade 2010!!!!!
I think if the Bulls get Joe Johnson, Derrick Rose will crash his motorcycle
Can it get any worse than that? Well, other than Kirk Hinrich crashing his motorcycle with Jannero Pargo in the sidecar.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
Given that there is Boozer, Lee and Amare out there...
in addition to the big three. It seems less likely that JJ ends up being the dude.
I saw T2 at Walgreens in Deerfield he’s tall. if you’re wondering what his grocery list included: magnums, french vanilla ice cream and a 20 oz sprite
by Super-Structure on Feb 24, 2010 5:01 PM CST reply actions
I think the Bulls will do a sign and trade for either
Boozer, STAT or Jefferson after they land either Wade or JJ.
Wade 2010!!!!!
I don't see any indication that they think they're factoring in position
why not Joe Johnson. The Bulls may feel there’s as much of a hole at SG as there is at PF, and maybe moreso given the rise of Taj.
Then again I never know what the hell the Bulls are thinking. It could just be Reinsdorf having Arn Tellem on speed dial.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 24, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions
If the intention is to generate money...
they have too be somewhat aware of whom has the most potential to produce that over an extended period of time. That said, I always forget about Taj as being a substantive portion of the Bulls’ plans.
I saw T2 at Walgreens in Deerfield he’s tall. if you’re wondering what his grocery list included: magnums, french vanilla ice cream and a 20 oz sprite
by Super-Structure on Feb 24, 2010 5:31 PM CST up reply actions
I think 'Joe Johnson is the most underrated player ever'
has been said so much it can move money by now.
Truthfully the Bulls can make money forever with just Derrick Rose and their self-imposed spending limit.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 24, 2010 6:29 PM CST up reply actions
Sad but true.
I saw T2 at Walgreens in Deerfield he’s tall. if you’re wondering what his grocery list included: magnums, french vanilla ice cream and a 20 oz sprite
by Super-Structure on Feb 24, 2010 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
This projection system is such a hard idea to make work
There just aren’t enough comparable players in the NBA. Look at Tyrus’s comparisons: Marcus Camby, Shawn Kemp and Gerald Wallace? Three completely different players, and I’m not sure their similarly different career paths say about what Tyrus will do.
Does anyone know about the WARP system though? I find it hard to believe Ginobili will add 3x as many wins as JJ next year when JJ will likely play 1.5x-2x as many minutes. I realize Ginobili’s still great and JJ might be a tad overrated, but is Ginobili really five times better??
I dunno. It’s nice to see an article supporting going after young guys like Lee and Gay, but I subscribe to baseball reference and their PECOTA has more than a few problems. I’m not sure I buy into SCHOENE yet.
by YaoPau on Feb 24, 2010 5:15 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
"doesn't factor in injuries"
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
I agree
And how the hell do you find 10 players comparable to Shaquille O’Neal?
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 1:34 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
timing
Rose is 21 and Noah 24. JJ is 28 now and if signed would turn 30 shortly after the finish of his first season with the Bulls. Unless the Bulls can get a superstar who would make them immediate contenders (i.e. Wade), it would be better to build around younger players.
Recall after the Bulls they acquired 22 yr. old Pippen in 1987, then won 6 titles during the 1990’s. Imagine if Pippen had been 28 in 1987. The team would have been good for 1 or 2 titles at best.
if only they had a 25 yr old SG, a 24 yr old SF and a 23 yr old PF
holy rocks batman!
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
That would be totally crazy!!!!!
Aw, man.
…
We should get Morrow. Why can’t we just offer Morrow, like, $7 million a year. That would be pretty rockin’. And we could trade for Millsap or something for our PF spot.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
RFA
The Bulls literally have a 0% chance of getting Morrow. The Warriors are stupid, but not retaining him would be borderline retarded
There's always a chance, and it doesn't hurt in making an offer.
If GS matches, then he’ll just languish on the bench and get traded in a year.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 25, 2010 12:50 AM CST up reply actions
it would hurt if your cap space is tied up for 7 days
though I’d guess the Morrow bidding would be at the end of free agency.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:42 AM CST up reply actions
That's a really good point.
With all the Morrow love, I have been worried about tying up space with an offer. But, logically, since nobody else will want to tie up their space either, the bidding for the RFA’s like Morrow and Gay will happen after the big prizes have landed. I just hope that Morrow and Gay don’t get impatient and take an offer from their teams before waiting for other offers.
The reason I bring up Gay is, if we have to send Deng in a sign and trade for Bron, Bosh, or Wade… Gay is best replacement SF on the Market. If we can S&T for Bosh, then split our money between Gay and Morrow… I’d be fucking thrilled.
Although… I have to say, I really like Deng moving forward. He has a big contract, but if we are talking about him as a third option… he really is the perfect player for that role. Solid pretty much everywhere, doesn’t need the ball to contribute. Him and Noah are the perfect players to round out a championship team.
2010... where relevant basketball in Chicago happens!
I don't know if the Warriors have the minutes in the backcourt for him with Monta and Curry
unless they can move Monta, but they passed on the chance to acquire Mayo for him, so they seem to like him, despite his being wildly overrated.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
We hear the talk about his fit, intangibles, ‘glue guy’, ‘thrust’, and any other ways you can put lipstick on a sub-40% shooting pig, but it’s become increasingly clear that it can’t be just propaganda when the moves they make (or don’t) say that they believe their own hype.
-- yfBB
God, I hate Hinrich and his poop-level play.
by fundamentallysound on Feb 25, 2010 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I can't believe the Warriors turned down
OJ Mayo and Thabeet for Monta Ellis. I find that hysterical. That org. makes the Bulls org. look like geniuses.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
by Illini15 on Feb 25, 2010 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Seriously???
Wow
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Yup.
I knew the Warriors were stupid, but this is beyond stupid. It’s asinine.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
and it makes the Grizzlies look
stupid for offering it. But the Grizzlies were burned by everyone for the Zach Randolph trade and that worked out for them.
by LoveForTheGame on Feb 25, 2010 4:52 PM CST up reply actions
and the Pau trade...
Which looks less and less stupid. Since it gave them the space to get Randolph, gave them Marc Gasol, who looks solid, and gave them two 1st round picks.
2010... where relevant basketball in Chicago happens!
Wow
That’s crazy
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
I believe you are underestimating the power of stupidity
Besides, they always have Moped Monta.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
To get Morrow, we'd have to offer him more than GS thinks he's worth
Which is probably a lot more than he’s actually worth. I think I’d rather have Ginobili or Allen, both of whom might come cheaper.
Why?
Does Golden State have a reputation of retaining talented players?
Thomas, Miller, Salmons, James, Pargo, Gray, MLE, and (there is no LLE thanks to the Pargo signing) will not be here with a Max Free Agent...don't get too attached.
they're a mess, obviously
just looking at their transaction map they’ve re-signed Ellis, Beidrins, Azulbuike, Watson. Meh. I can’t find a good way to see guys they’ve let go, but off the top of my head I can think of Baron Davis, Pietrus, Barnes
Interestingly that’s way better than the Bulls who’ve retained Hinrich and Deng, the rest being rookie deals or traded for or Lindsey Hunter.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
(shouldn't say way better)
but it is interesting that the Bulls currently only have two players they’ve re-signed.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
No but he's an RFA
And I should think they’d be willing to math any reasonable offer.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure they'll match any offers
under $3 million. Beyond that, you may as well make the offer, because GS is a bunch of idiots.
Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!
I think they'd match higher than that
A lot of GS’s stupidity involves overvaluing their own players (as evidenced by the Ellis thing). And the luxury tax isn’t an issue for them, so I just don’t see a scenario in which we get Morrow on the cheap.
I've come to think signing Joe Johnson to max deal would be probably the worst FA result
At least of the likely possible signings.
That’s the kind of move that gets Rose traded in a couple of years because they can’t afford two max players.
Assuming the Bulls can’t sign Wade or Bosh (and I’d rather see Bosh signed), I’d much rather see them spread the money over both PF and SG and get a couple of lesser players on cheaper/shorter deals. Who knows, if they spend wisely they might get two players almost as talented as Gordon and Thomas.
by hitlesswonder on Feb 24, 2010 10:54 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
me too
worst case is signing nobody, or nobody particularly good.
The Bulls potentially lock themselves in with a bad Joe Johnson contract, but as long as he doesn’t fall off a cliff a la Ben Wallace it should still be tradeable in the first few years. I think it’s an issue that so many indicators are there that he WILL fall off a cliff, but I’m optimistic that he ages more like Paul Pierce than Michael Finley.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:54 AM CST up reply actions
What makes you feel like he'll be more like Paul Pierce?
And even if he does age that way, Pierce has consistently been better than Joe Johnson for his whole career. So even if he tails off gradually, he’ll be less productive than Pierce is and not nearly worth the contract he’ll get.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
We hear the talk about his fit, intangibles, ‘glue guy’, ‘thrust’, and any other ways you can put lipstick on a sub-40% shooting pig, but it’s become increasingly clear that it can’t be just propaganda when the moves they make (or don’t) say that they believe their own hype.
-- yfBB
God, I hate Hinrich and his poop-level play.
by fundamentallysound on Feb 25, 2010 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Weird Pierce/Finley stat to add to that
Pierce’s career PER is higher than Johnson’s career best PER. But even if you don’t buy that and think JJ’s undervalued by PER, the dropoffs for Pierce and Finley were actually crazy similar:
Pierce’s PER from age 24 to 28: 22.0
Age 29: 21.7 (1.4% drop)
Age 30: 19.6 (10.9%)
Age 31: 17.7 (19.5%)
Age 32: 17.2 (21.8%)
Overall drop from age 24-28 to age 29 through 32 (47 games into age 32 season): 13.7%
Finley’s PER from age 24 to 28: 18.7
Age 29: 17.6 (5.9% drop)
Age 30: 17.8 (4.8%)
Age 31: 14.3 (23.5%)
Age 32: 12.7 (32.1%)
Overall drop from age 24-28 to age 29 through 32 (47 games into age 32 season): 13.7%!!
I at first thought that was wrong, but Pierce only played 47 games in his age 29 season, so his 1.4% dip has a smaller effect on the average. Finley did get a (I think 3 year) contract with the Spurs at age 32 though, so maybe we could still trade JJ at that point.
by YaoPau on Feb 25, 2010 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You know what else Pierce and Finley have in common?
They both won a championship while being on the wrong side of 30.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
They also both have
six letters in their last name
by YaoPau on Feb 25, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
They also won titles playing with two of the best power forwards of all-time.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 25, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
And two of the best defenses in the past 10 years.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 25, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
Had PGs
that can attack the basket and distribute
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 25, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
Hey, now that one we got!
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 25, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
Well...
It’s settled then, if we sign Joe Johnson, he will age just like Pierce and Finley. Who aged the same.
2010... where relevant basketball in Chicago happens!
so it's not that Johnson won't age like Pierce
but Johnson wasn’t as good as Pierce to begin with. Pierce was truly underrated on those terrible Celtics teams, not like Joe Johnson being underrated because people like to say he’s underrated.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
nothing in terms of actual evidence
it’s called optimism, being positive dude. neglecting reason because it makes you sad. I’m told this is how things should go :)
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
boooo, I prefer realistic gloomy yfBB. But that's probably because I'm realistic and gloomy, too.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
We hear the talk about his fit, intangibles, ‘glue guy’, ‘thrust’, and any other ways you can put lipstick on a sub-40% shooting pig, but it’s become increasingly clear that it can’t be just propaganda when the moves they make (or don’t) say that they believe their own hype.
-- yfBB
God, I hate Hinrich and his poop-level play.
by fundamentallysound on Feb 25, 2010 3:09 PM CST up reply actions
I blame the weather.
Move to somewhere warm, and your life increases in awesomeness by 300%.
Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Feb 25, 2010 5:18 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I really need to move out West.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
We hear the talk about his fit, intangibles, ‘glue guy’, ‘thrust’, and any other ways you can put lipstick on a sub-40% shooting pig, but it’s become increasingly clear that it can’t be just propaganda when the moves they make (or don’t) say that they believe their own hype.
-- yfBB
God, I hate Hinrich and his poop-level play.
by fundamentallysound on Feb 25, 2010 11:47 PM CST up reply actions
See, I'd rather have no cap space and try only through sign-and-trades than try to get Joe Johnson.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
The guy is not that bad jeez
He will be an effective player until his early 30’s. That’s regardless if he plays for the Bulls or not. You can hold me to that statement.
Wade 2010!!!!!
I couldn't give a damn about holding you to that.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
do you mean lee is superior to boozer, not bosh?
by Uncle Stanley McGoober on Feb 24, 2010 11:26 PM CST reply actions
whoops
I did.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 24, 2010 11:49 PM CST up reply actions
i would take lee over boozer, but not over bosh. Bosh would be my first choice, if the bulls can’t get bosh, then sign lee and morrow, not joe johnson, the bulls can draft a shooting guard.
I wouldn't,
Boozer is more of a post scorer than Lee, thats what the Bulls need a post 4 that can play the pick’n’pop, Lee is not a post 4.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 25, 2010 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
If they get Boozer, they need another player to be really good.
With Boozer, they likely won’t have the money to be really good. With Lee, they likely will 2 > 1
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Boozer is having a great year. Last night against the Bobcats
he was 13 of 16 from the field, converted 7 of 9 FTA’s and pulled down 16 rebounds. Not too shabby.
He’s very effective in the post and I think he may agree to take a lesser contract just for the opportunity to play with Rose after thriving with Williams at the point. He may be willing to take less than a max contract to get out of the west and help D Rose in pursuit of a championship. Of course Chicago may not be able to measure up to Salt Lake city for it’s off-court activiities, for someone who admires the Mormon Tabernacle Choir like Carlos does.
If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard
by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 25, 2010 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Those guys
can really sing, I think I got their greatest hits lying around somewhere.
by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 25, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
signing joe johnson
would certainly make the team better. While the general consensus seems to agree giving him the max is a bad idea, how much do you think is worth it for him?
tough to say, he turned down 4/$15m from the Hawks
so he wants more than that. I’m not sure the Hawks go much higher, and a dealbreaker could be that 5th year. But it probably should be a dealbreaker for us too.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
That makes perfect sense to me...
But, I’ve read speculation that they main reason he turned that down was because he wanted out of Atlanta at the time… and that he might be willing to sign for less than he turned down, he just wants the opportunity to see what he can get on the open market.
2010... where relevant basketball in Chicago happens!
I agree with the basic conclusions here.
To me, Lebron is option 1,2 and 3.
Bosh is probably option 4.
Wade is 5.
And anything else is going to be an attempt to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.
by Sports2 on Feb 25, 2010 8:30 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
we'd have slightly better chicken shit
is Lee+Morrow (or something similar) that much better than Gordon+Tyrus that it was worth all the rest? It all depends on their liklihood of signing one of those big 3, and I increasingly think the Bulls are almost absolved as it’ll be up to a superstar’s whim more than anything. The Bulls went for this plan because even if it fails they are spending less, whereas another plan could be a more expensive failure.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
I could definitely deal with Lee + Morrow
Then maybe we could bring back Murray for cheap as the 4th guard and re-sign Miller for the vet minimum.
Rose/Kurt/Murray
Kurt/Morrow/Murray
Deng/JJ
Lee/Taj
Noah/Miller
That leaves us with an All-Star in Rose, a good defensive counterpart in Kirk, a three-point bomber off the bench in Morrow, and the best rebounding frontcourt in the entire NBA. Plus, Lee would be a great option with Rose on the pick and roll, now that he’s shown to be a good shooter.
Seriously though, would any other team come close to rebounding as well as the Deng/Lee/Noah frontcourt? The Lakers, maybe? That’s all I can think of. It would be absolutely sick. No rebound would be safe.
I’m also imagining Rose driving and kicking out to an open, on-fire Morrow for unlimited three pointers. God that would be sweet.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
So, my point is
Lee + Morrow >>>>>>> Joe Johnson.
If these are hypothetical options.
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
I've come to agree that getting 2 lesser FAs is probably better than signing Joe Johnson to the max
Mostly because it spreads out your risk that one turns into a bust.
However, I think I’d still rather have Boozer or Stoudemire than Lee + Morrow. Also, I’d rather shoot for Ginobili or Allen than Morrow, partly because they’re better and partly because they’re more easily obtainable.
One idea I'm starting to like
if we miss out on the big three is signing a lot of young pieces for depth. Sign Morrow, Lowry, Amir Johnson, Frye (maybe just 3 of the 4 depending on cap), draft a shooting guard, and have a team of
PG Rose, Lowry
SG Hinrich, Morrow, 1st
SF Deng, JaJohnson
PF Taj, AmJohnson
C Noah, Frye
going forward. It’s great if we land a superstar, but if there isn’t one remaining, it’s senseless to to throw $17 mil at someone just ’cuz. Get some young, useful depth on good contracts and keep plowing forward.
they could also trade Hinrich for depth
expensive, long-term depth, but I could see a team wanting to get a long-term deal or two off the books and take back Kirk’s effectively 2-year deal.
Plus James Johnson could still have that new-draft smell and could fetch someone of use.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 2:09 PM CST up reply actions
(trade Hinrich for depth after the superstar or even faux-superstar)
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree
Guys like Frye and Amir Johnson are a dime a dozen. Guys like Joe johnson are very hard to find and I think it’s worth it to overpay for a guy like him. I know he’s going to decline, but he’ll still give us 2, maybe 3 years of all-star play and I do think that could get us a title when added to what we already have. After that, hopefully rose will have developed into a good enough player where we can still contend despite johnson’s decline. And if that’s not the case, we can try to flip Joe Johnson (who now becomes an attractive expiring contract) for better talent with more years remaining.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
that's how I feel too
they need to get very good talent out of this strategy, overpaid or not. Hopefully they can hardline on the years.
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah being stingy with that 5th year is very important
And I think the bulls front office realizes that. Looking at our last big free agent signing, ben wallace, we managed to avoid giving him that 5th year. And that could have been potentially huge. That extra year might have made ben untradeable (at least for contracts that expire before 2011), meaning the 2010 plan would have been dead in the water 4 years ago.
Ben Wallace was 32 when we signed him
so that was a bigger issue than JJ, who will be 33 when his contract is done.
Wade 2010!!!!!
I can understand that logic
Add JJ and I could easily see us winning 50-55 games if healthy. Is 2-3 years of 50-55 wins worth the next 2+ years of having a likely terrible, giant contract? I’d say no, but I can see why you’d say yes.
I just think we’re the wrong team for a Johnson (and to lesser extent, Amare/Boozer) contract. Rose is still a couple years from reaching his peak. Noah isn’t close to where he could be defensively. Deng should be a very good player for awhile. Why try to force a championship now when we can add cheap, young, easily moveable parts to continue our run of playoff appearances and then reassess the situation in a couple years?
How bad would the Kevin Garnett contract look right now if Boston never won their title? Look at what happened when the Cubs tried to force a championship that wasn’t there by signing Soriano longterm. It just seems like grossly overpaying an aging star is a move made out of frustration instead of from a logical plan.
Eh, I don't like using specific cases
scratch the Garnett/Soriano crap. It’s just that if we had even a legit outside shot at a title with a Rose/JJ/Deng/Taj/Noah starting lineup and a weak bench, I’d say go for it. I think the general feeling is we wouldn’t. So why make a bet that’s so likely to be a bad one?
I think the difference between our points of view is that you don't think the bulls could contend with joe Johnson while I think they could
Rose/Johnson/deng/Gibson/Noah Could be the best starting 5 in the league next year with a reasonable amoun lt of improvement from our youngsters. The top teams in the league are all on the decline. The key members of the lakers, mavs, celtics and spurs are all well past their prime. Atlanta will most likely lose their best player, and Cleveland could as well. Granted our bench is a little thin, but add a couple decent 1st round draft choices, asik, and some decent veteran with the 2011 MLE and I see a contender.
I agree with you
Sooner or later you have to go out and get that high level top talent. The Bulls have been loading and unloading talented young players for 10 years. Even if they managed to sign each guy in YaoPau’s post, in a year, they would be trying to trade those guys for an upper tier player.
by Basketball Smurf on Feb 25, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah being stingy with that 5th year is very important
And I think the bulls front office realizes that. Looking at our last big free agent signing, ben wallace, we managed to avoid giving him that 5th year. And that could have been potentially huge. That extra year might have made ben untradeable (at least for contracts that expire before 2011), meaning the 2010 plan would have been dead in the water 4 years ago.
I would also make signing someone like Gortat a high priority
We’re seeing now what happens when someone like Noah can’t play
Except that Orlando is over the LT limit
so Gortat is costing them $11 million a year not $5.5 million. They may get tired of that.
Then they would have to trade him
but we can’t just sign him because he’s not a free agent.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
He said someone like Gortat
Omer Asik’s someone like Gortat who we conveniently have the draft rights of.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
they're both European-ballers, that's for sure.
isn’t Asik more of a lanky shot-blocker?
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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 25, 2010 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
I was just thinking in terms of European-born backup centers.
They all look alike to me.
by Poloplaya14 on Feb 25, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, Asik's supposedly like Noah.
So if Noah = Gortat then Asik = Gortat.
Although, Noah is European kinda too
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Speaking of him
How much cash is it going to take to get him over here? Does anyone know what he’s currently making?
Thrusting toward the playoffs, one game at a time.
I'd guess 2-4 million over 3 guaranteed years.
It’s going to have to be the MLE unless they got REALLY lucky with a high cap and got Morrow and Lee on good deals.
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
Yes originally
but I replied to him specifically talking about Gortat because that’s the only way we could get him.
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
LBJ
Most likely will not be leaving the CAVS and if he does very unlikely he goes to the Bulls. Can I also say Fuck Lebron and his silly ass dancing on the court. That guy annoys the heck out of me if you cant tell already.
I know most won’t agree but I think we need a talented SG that can shots than a talented PF. We need a PF no doubt but with Rose’s skill set we need a 2 gaurd that has height and can demand respect on the offensive end to get the most out of having such a talented PG. It would spread the court and make it tougher for teams to focus on stopping just Rose. I would prefer to get a very talented SG and an above average PF than a very talented PF and an above average SG. We have Noah and like him or not Gibson is proving to be a very solid PF in this league in just his rookie year.
The real problem remains how do we sign a max player and afford to get the much needed depth and SG, PF, & C positions.
The Dude Abides
Great read thanks!
I have to agree with you and Kevin here. Joe has been a bit over rated and with his age has the potential to be a guy you spend huge on and lose out big because he does not meet or exceed expectations. I think we should go after Lee, Stat, or Boozer before we spend a huge amount pursuing JJ.
Surprisingly, and I have no great explanation for this but I have been thinking that we might have a chance (albeit slight) to land Wade. If we can land Wade and find a way to sign a player like Lee (and I know that is unlikely but I can dream can’t I) we would be young and a real contender for years to come.
The Dude Abides
I think signing JJ to a max contract would be disasterous, but it's really nothing to worry about
since my crystal ball tells me D Wade wll be wearing a Chicago Bull’s uniform next year.
Before you all get too excited out there, I should also reveal my crystal ball tells me this is the year the Cubs break the 101 year drought and bring a World Series title back to Chicago. Not to be outdone, it says retaining Lovie Smith was the smartest thing the beloved Bears could do, because he’s right on the cusp of reliving the glory days of Super Bowl 85, as long as they wisely choose a stud with their 3rd round draft pick.
Seriously though, other than enjoying the weather and the partying at South Beach, why wouldn’t Wade want to come back to his hometown? Seriously, why not?
If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard
Im with you!
Two Hometown players bringing glory back to the Bulls, the story line does not get better then that. With Miami not adding anyone at the deadline and it being unknown what will happen with Riley, come on home Wade, come on home to play with an unselfish all-star and bring us back to where we belong.
The Dude Abides
I hate to beat a dead horse but
based upon that article TT is projected to be the 5th best free agent in 2010. Could it be that we actually had the some of the pieces to a championship team in place all this time?
Yes. This team could have continued to develop together if we had had a competent coach and had moved Kirk
for expirings when we drafted Rose. I honestly think that a team of Rose, Gordon, Deng, a well-coached Tyrus, and Noah would have been a contender in a few years as Deng, Tyrus, and Joakim hit their primes along with Derrick making the superstar leap.
I think they might have even won 50 games THIS year with that group if they had D’Antoni coaching this bunch instead of Vinny. As it is, they are on pace to win probably low to mid 40s, even after dumping Gordon and Tyrus for basically nothing.
It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147
We hear the talk about his fit, intangibles, ‘glue guy’, ‘thrust’, and any other ways you can put lipstick on a sub-40% shooting pig, but it’s become increasingly clear that it can’t be just propaganda when the moves they make (or don’t) say that they believe their own hype.
-- yfBB
God, I hate Hinrich and his poop-level play.
by fundamentallysound on Feb 25, 2010 11:52 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
I agree with everything with that line-up with the exception of Tyrus.
We would have still had the cap-space we have this year, which would have allowed us to sign a scoring big-man. Our starting five would have looked like this
Rose
BG
Deng
Bosh / Boozer / STAT or Lee
Noah
That would be a scary line-up. We would have outside shooting, low-post scoring, slashing, rebounding and defense.
Wade 2010!!!!!
I agree with almost all of that.
However, because a Rose-Gordon backcourt would struggle defensively against good offensive guards, we’d need a solid 3rd guard. Somebody who is a strong defender, can handle the ball, distribute, and shoot the 3. Who could we get who could fill this role? We would have had somebody in place who could do this, but we would have traded him for “expirings”.
Hinrich’s presence isn’t what prevented this scenario, JR’s CHEAPNESS prevented it. Even if they did as you suggested, and traded Hinrich for expirings it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Even if they won 50 games, that would not have made them a “contender”. That means that either Noah would play the role of BG, or Tyrus, next year and be let go/traded for expirings; or he’d play the role of Hinrich and be blamed for them moving somebody else. Unless JR is willing to go into the luxury tax to retain good players, the 2010 plan is pretty much their only chance to become an ‘instant contender’ and skip right over that 50 win stage entirely.
i agree
In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).
Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.
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