Salary Cap thoughts

[edit: Thanks to Kingj41 for catching a mistake I made. He (I am assuming it's a he since the name is king) pointed out this section of the NBA salary cap FAQ that states:

A free agent's maximum salary in the first year of a new contract is never less than 105% of his salary in the last year of his previous contract.

 So the actual minimum salary to sign Bosh, Amare, Wade, James, and Johnson have been included as the new question 1 and I have made slight changes to each of the following sections]

I think we traded away a lot of talent today (Feb 18) and I wanted to know how much it improved our chance at being sufficiently under the cap to sign a max FA. The rest of the post is just some numbers designed to ask the following questions:

1) What's the minimum salary for a max FA?

2) How far would the cap have to drop for us not to be able to sign a Maximum FA?

3) If we hadn't traded Salmons, what would the salary cap have to be next year to allow us to sign a max FA? 

4) Can New York definitely offer two maximum deals?

5) Where do we currently stand under the luxury tax and can we replace some of the scrubs we traded for with D--leaguers?

1) What's the minimum salary for a max FA?

The maximum salary for a player with 7 years of experience (Bosh, James, Wade, Johnson, Amare) is 30% of the salary cap or 105% of their current salary. So at a certain cap value the max contract of 30% of the cap will be greater than a 5% raise. The largest salary for a max FA will receive depends on the salary cap value and his current contract.

105% of the current salaries of five of the top FAs.

LeBron/Wade/Bosh - $15,779,912 * 1.05 = $16,568,908

Amare - $16,378,325 * 1.05 = $17,197,241

Johnson - $14,976,754 * 1.05 = $15,725,592

LeBron/Wade/Bosh - $16,568,908 / 0.3 = $55,229693

Amare - $17,197,241 / 0.3 = $57,324,136

Johnson - $15,725,592 / 0.3 = $52,428,641

So Johnson will most likely receive 30% of the cap, Amare is looking for a 5% raise, while for the big 3 the cap could only shrink by 4.4% for them to receive 30% of the cap, otherwise they are getting a 5% raise.

2) How far would the cap have to drop for us not to be able to sign a Maximum FA?

  Next summer we will have 6 players under contract: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah. Our 1st round pick will have a cap hold, but we can easily sell/trade it, so I'll pretend for now that we do so, to get an actual minimum.

  Using Sham's numbers, we'll have $31,850,976 alloted to those 6 players.

From the NBA salary cap FAQ:

A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.

 Which is $473,604 for each roster hold in the 2010-2011 season. We have five roster holds, which total $2,368,020. Combined that gives us a cap hold of $34,218,996.

The maximum salary for a player with 7 years of experience (Bosh, James, Wade, Johnson, Amare) is 30% of the salary cap or a 5% raise. So if $34,218,996 represents at most 70% of the salary cap, the minimum salary cap that allows us to offer a Max deal is $48,884,280. But since that value is less than what would be needed for a 5% raise the actual minimum cap is $50,787904 for Bosh, Wade, and James, a little less for Johnson and more for Amare. 

The current cap is $57.7 million, it would require a change of $6.9 million or 12% to prevent us from offering a max deal to Johnson, Bosh, Wade, and James, so in other words, we're safe.

3) If we hadn't traded Salmons, what would the salary cap have to be next year to allow us to sign a max FA? 

I'll spare you a repeat of the math.

We would need a salary cap of $56,504,846 to sign a free agent, which would mean the cap could only decrease by at most $1.2 million and that's if we surrender our 1st round pick. So While I hate the trade of Salmons, 2x 2nd rounders, and swapping 1st's, trading Salmons was necessary. If the cap stayed at the same value next year, unlikely, the highest draft pick we could have kept is the 17th (owed $1.3 million [pdf]).

4) Can New York definitely offer two maximum deals?

For those interested, doing the same thing for New York, except wondering if they can offer two maximum deals. They only have Gallinari, Curry, Douglas, and Chandler under contract for $17,782,905. 6 cap holds for $2,841,624 Total $20,624,529. If that represents less than 60% of the salary cap (two max guys at 30%), the salary cap would be $51,561,322. That is less than a 5% raise for all of the max FAs, so in this case the minimum salary cap value to sign two max FA's is complicated because it depends on who they sign.

To sign Johnson + Bosh/Wade/James (using 30% of cap on Johnson + 5% raise for the other)

The minimum cap is $20,624,529 + $16,568,908 +30% of cap = $53,133,481

To sign two of Bosh/Wade/James (using 5% raise for both)

The minimum cap is $20,624,529 + $16,568,908 +$16,568,908 = $53,762,345

To sign Johnson + Amare (using 30% of cap on Johnson + 5% raise for the Amare)

The minimum cap is $20,624,529 + $17,197,241 +30% of cap = $54,031,100

5) Where do we currently stand under the luxury tax and can we replace some of the scrubs we traded for with D--leaguers?

Using Sham's numbers, before today we were at $69,100,984. Subtract Salmons and Tyrus ($6,429,151 + $4,743,598) and add Joe Alexander & Hakeem Warrick from the Bucks (2,583,360 + 3,000,000) and Acie Law & Flip Murray from the Bobcats ( 2,216,160 + 1,990,000). We moved $1,383,229 further under the tax, enough to sign any vet to the minimum and still be under the tax.