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Hakim Warrick By the Numbers

ON OFFENSE

Stats, per 36:
Player A: 17.0 points, 2.6 orebs, 1.2 ast, 1.8 tov, .488 FG%, 6.4 FTA, .549 TS%
Player B: 13.6 points, 2.2 orebs, 1.8 ast, 2.8 tov, .483 FG%, 4.8 FTA, .523 TS%

Similar, though Player A has a higher usage and is slightly more efficient.  Here are their shooting numbers:

Jumpshots:
Player A: 54% of attempts, 37.1 eFG%
Player B: 54% of attempts, 38.5 eFG%

Close non-dunks:
Player A: 27% of attempts, 45.9 eFG%
Player B: 31% of attempts, 45.8 eFG%

Dunks:
Player A: 16% of attempts, 92.6 eFG%
Player B: 13% of attempts, 92.0 eFG%

Tips:
Player A: 3% of attempts, 53.6 eFG%
Player B: 2% of attempts, 25.0 eFG%

Player A has the Tips advantage, but it's such a tiny percentage of attempts it's barely a factor.  Apart from that, the numbers are eerily close.

Player A is Hakim Warrick the past two years (on Memphis and Milwaukee).
Player B is Tyrus Thomas this season.

The numbers say Warrick is slightly better offensively, but their styles are similar.  They're extremely athletic, they'll give you lots of easy points from dunks and free throws, and as a bonus, Warrick doesn't turn the ball over.  On the flip side, they're mediocre on the offensive glass, poor at scoring inside, and have terrible shot selection.  Here's a Warrick highlight video for a taste of what we'll be seeing.

ON DEFENSE

Per 36 stats:
0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 4.8 drebs

Just awful stats for a power forward.  

For perspective, in rate terms, Warrick averaged a 1.1 STL% and 1.3 BLK% over the past two years.  Add them together for 2.4%, and that ranks 8th worst in the NBA among PFs/Cs (Haslem, Scola, Randolph, Lee, Jamison, Bonner, Murphy).  Of those 8, Warrick's 16.2 dREB% is the worst.

Those numbers alone don't necessarily mean Warrick's a terrible defender.  Jason Collins, for example never put up big stats either and was very good defensively because he was a widebody who sealed the post.  But Warrick's a beanpole.

OVERALL

The numbers suggest Warrick's a slightly better version of Tyrus offensively, and downright awful defensively.  Neither description is particularly good.  And that shows up in Adjusted Plus Minus.

From 2006-2009, Warrick's -6.40 APM ranked 4th worst in the NBA (Damien Wilkins, Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry) among players who played over 5000 minutes.  Warrick's 2008-2009 basketballvalue APM was -5.19, and his current two-year APM stands at -3.62.  

(Note: 2-year APMs come with a high error, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from those numbers alone.  But the 4-year APM has a much lower error, and when a 4-year APM, more recent two-year APMs and the Per36 stats all point to the same thing, there's a higher and higher probability that it's close to the truth.)

I'm happy we've traded Salmons for an expiring, and I honestly couldn't care less about how this season turns out.  But for those hoping Warrick helps us earn a playoff berth, the numbers suggest Warrick will hurt us more than help.

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Comment 60 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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you didnt have to tell it like it is yaopau.

"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."

by TheMoon on Feb 18, 2010 12:02 PM CST reply actions  

we just traded away the best defensive player in the league ...

… watch as tyrus blossoms into a defensive player of the year candidate

i’m not sure if i’m being sarcastic or not :/

Where 79-44 lead turns into a 4 point loss Happens

Wade 2010

by Orange Juice on Feb 18, 2010 12:04 PM CST reply actions  

I didn't know anyone else felt that strongly about Aaron Gray

I’m glad someone finally agrees with me.

Oh you were talking about Tyrus…

by Poloplaya14 on Feb 18, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions  

100% the truth

Tyrus has shown life of a 18 foot jump shot – plays great defense and is quite young – 1 year in college. Tyrus didn’t want to be in Chicago and it showed up in many mental errors on the court. He appeared to be a distraction in the locker room – hence the suspension. It’ll be interesting to see how his career pans out with more playing time and a change of scenery.

by South Jersey Wedding Photographer on Feb 20, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions  

On the plus side

he has zero expectations here so he may not complain with playing 15-20 minutes a game behind Taj.

Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."

by bigballa10 on Feb 18, 2010 12:43 PM CST reply actions  

Exactly

Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."

by bigballa10 on Feb 18, 2010 3:09 PM CST up reply actions  

good stuff

didn’t know much about warrick , but alot of guys/gals on here wanted him and he is here now…lets hope he’s does something

by Belize on Feb 18, 2010 12:47 PM CST reply actions  

Like Oakley was Mike’s body guard

by QUINTEN DALEY on Feb 19, 2010 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Who cares

Still gonna get benched for Taj

"Freeze it!... now roll it!" -Stacey King, greatest analyst ever.

by WalmartSecurity on Feb 18, 2010 12:56 PM CST reply actions  

he's used to it

playing for Skiles (or not playing for Skiles as the case may be.) Skiles hasn’t given him consistent minutes.

by KT on Feb 18, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

great stuff.

one thing not mentioned – that can’t be explained in stats – tyrus very well had to go with his issue with VDN this year.

Good stuff. For what it’s worth – tyrus PER for year 16.75….warrick’s is 15.75.

by swede2287 on Feb 18, 2010 12:58 PM CST reply actions  

my friend texted me and i know alot of people are thinking it here

tyrus is gonna cedric benson us….

On Behalf of Sue, Wjb, majoyenrac, Bullshooter and all the other Hinrich fans...Ill keep the Hinrich Hope coming...There will be light!

by piccolomair on Feb 18, 2010 1:02 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

Mmm... would you buy... Cedric Ceballos?

"It’d be ridiculous to hate someone for simply what they say in a sports blog. But I greatly dislike every syllable of your angst-filled, smarmy, nondescript, half-assed, elitist-garbage responses." –Rogerspark Kris

by bullhockey on Feb 18, 2010 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

yup, lashings for all those who say he's the same player as Tyrus Thomas

I was hoping he’d have better %s on jumpers and close shots, as Tyrus was becoming superlatively bad at all non-dunks.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 18, 2010 1:32 PM CST reply actions  

Tyrus has the highest shooting % from 17-23 feet on the Bulls, I should say had

He also converted 38 of his last 61 for a .622% and they weren’t all dunks, so I can’t understand what you’re basing “was becoming superlatively bad at all non-dunks” on.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 18, 2010 8:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Layups.

Was missing layups.
I’m guessing it was just from watching too. :P

Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!

by Prevenge on Feb 19, 2010 12:41 AM CST up reply actions  

He's an awful finisher, I don't care how much Tyrus' smile makes you warm inside.

Taj Gibson is the face of Bulls basketball!
by Trey23 on Jan 5, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 19, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know what annoys me the most

Trading TT or having him wasting potential with VDN

by JustAnotherFan on Feb 18, 2010 2:46 PM CST reply actions  

Anybody remeber..

Warrick blocking Michael Lee’s shot in the 2003 NCAA championship game to keep Kirk from winning the title that year? No, Just me?

by oakdale on Feb 18, 2010 2:47 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

I thought I remembered it

I actually thought he blocked Kirk, but I checked out the replay and you’re right.

That was one of the best blocks I’ve ever seen, and Warrick has every tool to be a great shotblocker: 7’2" wingspan (Tyrus is at 7’3"), 9’0" standing reach (Tyrus 9’0"), 38" vertical (Tyrus 39.5"). It’s all there, but he doesn’t do a thing. Even in college he averaged just 0.8 blocks per 40 adjusted his senior year. Weird.

by YaoPau on Feb 18, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

anybody remember

Michael Lee?

"I want people to fear me"- Derrick Rose.

by Cosmis on Feb 18, 2010 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't realize this guy was so bad.

I actually thought Warrick would’ve been a good cheap risk to take in the offseason when he signed for so little. I’m not sure that is still not a valid opinion, but he certainly hasn’t blossomed this year.

by RyPac13 on Feb 18, 2010 3:04 PM CST reply actions  

Ty Thomas

All this crying over T.T.! It’s ridiculous! He averaged 8pts. & 5 reb. & burned through 2.5 coaches in his 4 years here. Face it folks, it wasn’t gonna happen here. I also don’t think that an org. that’s paid Tim Thomas twice to not show up was “conspiring” to “hold down” Tyrus. Amazing athletic ability but questionable basketball smarts. I wish him luck.

by CrashDavis on Feb 18, 2010 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

This team this year

is still going to miss him, even if it was only 8.5 and 5

by JockstrapNoah on Feb 18, 2010 3:25 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Ty Thomas

They should from Gibson & Warrick.

by CrashDavis on Feb 18, 2010 3:34 PM CST reply actions  

Ty Thomas

What I meant to say is that Gibson & Warrick should replace Ty’s production.

by CrashDavis on Feb 18, 2010 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Who replaces Gibson's?

In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).

Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.

by tyger1147 on Feb 18, 2010 4:16 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Each can replace his production on their with ease

Dave P
www.dabullseye.com
Da Bulls' Eye Forum Now Open

by Da Bulls' Eye on Feb 18, 2010 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

on their own*

Dave P
www.dabullseye.com
Da Bulls' Eye Forum Now Open

by Da Bulls' Eye on Feb 18, 2010 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

If by 'replace', you mean 'suck instead of replacing', then we're fine.

Otherwise, not so much.

Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!

by Prevenge on Feb 19, 2010 12:43 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

IMO, Thomas is a better player than Warrick...

…regardless of what the numbers may say. I more or less agree with the post.

Well, I guess it depends on how much ones value Thomas. Here’s how I see him:

http://www.brewhoop.com/2010/2/15/1311781/2010/2/15/1311781/ford-bucks-looking-to-be-buyers-at#30882254

Warrick is a solid scorer, but offers very little in terms of non-scoring contributions.

Bellow par rebounder for his size/athleticism. Doesn’t read the flight of the ball. Mostly rebounds his area but his hands aren’t strong and sometimes forgets to put a body on his man.

Defensively, he’s dangerously close to being a sieve. Very poor post defender, lacks strength and technique even when he puts the effort. Sub-par ballscreen defender as well, considering his physical traits. Sometimes completely misreads the play. Can be very slow reacting to the screener move. When hedging has a tendency to recover before forcing the ball-handler to retreat. Lack of awareness is a problem when guarding perimeter bigs off-the-ball. Often allows his man to drift to the outside and only closes out when the shot is coming. Gets caught staring at the ball too much. Inconsistent effort, but had been improving under Skiles, who would yank him for continued displays of lack of intensity. He’s at his best when guarding on-the-ball. Good combination of length, quickness and long arms. Lacks the aggressiveness and the consistency that could make him a good 1×1 wing defender. Takes possessions off here and there.

Offensively, he’s a poor passer. Not selfish, but suffers a bit from tunnel vision. Relatively mistaken-free. Good ball-handler for his size, controlled and low bouncing, but lacks the advanced dribble moves to drive in traffic. Doesn’t see the floor well when driving, rarely passes. Much better going left, if forced to go right will eventually pull-up. Does most of his damage attacking from the pinch-post and the elbows. Solid finisher with both hands + possesses an effective short-range running hook. Change ends very fast, good fastbreak player. Good cutter. Doesn’t need the ball to be effective but likes to get his touches anyway.

So, basically a face-up 4 and scoring role-player who needs to improve his jump-shot and non-scoring contributions to be more than a solid 8th man. That said, he’s exponentially better than Joe Alexander.

by Joana on Feb 18, 2010 4:52 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

How soon until everyone gets off of Tyrus's jockstrap?

The fact that Warrick doesn’t turn the ball over every other time he touches alone make Warrick the more valuable player…

Dave P
www.dabullseye.com
Da Bulls' Eye Forum Now Open

by Da Bulls' Eye on Feb 18, 2010 5:00 PM CST up reply actions  

he gets 10 and 4.5 in about 21 minutes

on a crappy Bucks team.

I’m sure he’ll be fine playing with Drose.
He’s much better than when he came into the League. Looking forward to his contribution.

"What are you doing Dragic?!"

by Trey23 on Feb 18, 2010 5:20 PM CST up reply actions  

it's good thing the only things that count are points and rebounds

In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).

Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.

by tyger1147 on Feb 18, 2010 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe he's more valuable on the offensive end

He’s certainly a more productive offensive player as of now and superior as a scorer, ball-handler and shot-maker.

Overall, I disagree: Thomas is a superior rebounder + much better defender. What he offers on those aspects of the game upsets Warrick’s advantages offensively.

I’m a Bucks fan, btw, no particular connection to Thomas.

by Joana on Feb 18, 2010 7:56 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

You're a moron.

For evidence, see the post I am responding to.

Go Rockets/Nets[CDR]/Bucks[Jennings]!

by Prevenge on Feb 19, 2010 12:44 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I think

“Changes ends very fast, good fastbreak player. Good cutter.” is the most important line.

That alone will give him a good shot with Rose on this team.

"I want people to fear me"- Derrick Rose.

by Cosmis on Feb 18, 2010 7:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm sure? it was just an oversight but don't you think if you're comparing stats they shouldn't be cherry-picked?

Why didn’t you include Tyrus’s Per 36 stats, as you did Warrick’s on the following?
per 36 minutes Warrick 0.8 steals 0.6 blocks, 4.8 drebs
per 36 minutes Thomas 2.1 steals 2.6 blocks 7.5 drebs

Individual Player Floor Time statistics
Player Min +/- Off Def Net48 Win%
Warrick 41% -90 1.02 1.07 -4.2 42.2
Thomas 15% -3 1.01 0.95 +7.0 63.6

Offensive production -Thomas Own 18.1 Opponent 12.8 +5.3
On/ Off the court – Thomas -0.3 -3.4 Net +3.1 Simple rating +4.4 Bulls 2nd highest
                                   
Offensive production -Warrick Own 17.1 Opponent 14.4 +2.7
On/ Off the court – Warrick -4.2 +3.4 Net -7.6 Simple rating -1.5

Efficiency rating Thomas 12.76 Warrick 9.67 32% higher than Warrick’s

Overall I think their differences aren’t insignificant.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 18, 2010 7:00 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

He specifically made the point that Warrick was a terrible defender and Tyrus is very good on that end.

That’s essentially the crux of the post. They are the same guy (more or less) on offense, but Tyrus is waaaay better on D. I think you’re just looking for someone to be mad at because Tyrus is gone (I know I am).

It’s candy. I don’t eat poop-flavored candy. I’m not going to watch poop-level basketball.
--tyger1147

by fundamentallysound on Feb 18, 2010 7:24 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

My point in posting was he showed Warrick's numbers comparing them to Tyrus on offense

but than left out the comparisons on blocked shots, assists, rebounds, steals comparitive defense, etc. He never mentioned Tyrus was a superior defender compared to Warrick. Many who have responded to this blog have already made the point that losing Tyrus was nothing since Warrick will replace him easily as someone mentioned.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 18, 2010 7:38 PM CST reply actions  

I never intended to make this a Warrick vs. Tyrus argument

I see Tyrus as basically an average player overall while Warrick is below average. I used Tyrus’ numbers to try to show how unremarkable Warrick was offensively despite his decent box score numbers.

by YaoPau on Feb 19, 2010 12:11 AM CST up reply actions  

OK but some here interpreted it that they were basically interchangeable

As my statisics show, Tyrus is a much better defensive player while offensively it’s almost a wash.

If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names.
Elbert Hubbard

by Tyrusmancrush on Feb 19, 2010 2:43 AM CST reply actions  

I think anyone that watches

basketball can easily see that. And YaoPau is not the type of poster to make an argument that has no ground. He would never say that Warrick >/= Tyrus because it’s simply not true.

by kingj41 on Feb 19, 2010 7:50 AM CST up reply actions  

A better question than any of this

Why can’t you reply to the actual post to which you’re replying?

by jpx7 on Feb 19, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Hakim Warrick is what everyone thinks Tyrus Thomas is.

In the past 10 years, just four team owners have not paid a luxury tax and are not on pace to pay one this year: Donald Sterling, Jerry Reinsdorf, Chris Cohen (Golden State), Bob Johnson (Charlotte).

Two owners’ teams averaged an operating income of over +$10 million per year while their teams have lost over 60% of their games: Donald Sterling and Jerry Reinsdorf.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2010 1:34 PM CST reply actions  

I am just blown away by Warrick’s total lack of ability to block shots.

For his career Warrick blocks .6 shots per/36min.(which is horrible). This season though he’s blocking .35 per/36min.(which is 58% of horrible)

To put this in perspective:
Tyrus- 2.55(over 7X more)
Noah- 1.87(over 5Xmore)
Taj- 1.70
JJ- 1.69

Now these guys are all good shot blockers(esp. Tyrus), there’s a reason the Bulls lead the NBA in blocks. How about a couple players not known for shot blocking:

Brad- .58(not far from 2X more)
Kirk- .38

That Kirk is blocking shots more frequently than Warrick is amazing. Hakim is 6’9" and very athletic, and Kirk is uh…not. Of course shot blocking is a skill, like say shooting, but it’s just inconceivable to me that an excellent athlete like Warrick somehow couldn’t just luck into at least twice the blocks he’s actually getting. If there’s a silver lining, Warrick is overdue to improve his shot blocking from 58% of horrible to just plain bad the rest of the season.

by kingles on Feb 20, 2010 12:51 AM CST reply actions  

Agreed

How can you have a 7’3 or 7’4" and not even get a block a game. When a 6’4" guard(Wade) gets one a game. That just seems like poor instincts or just good ol fashioned lack of trying. Either way that’s pretty damn pathetic.

by C Smoove on Feb 20, 2010 1:10 AM CST up reply actions  

POST FAIL

7’3" wingspan…I meant.

by C Smoove on Feb 20, 2010 1:10 AM CST reply actions  

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