Hakim Warrick By the Numbers


Stats, per 36:
Player A: 17.0 points, 2.6 orebs, 1.2 ast, 1.8 tov, .488 FG%, 6.4 FTA, .549 TS%
Player B: 13.6 points, 2.2 orebs, 1.8 ast, 2.8 tov, .483 FG%, 4.8 FTA, .523 TS%

Similar, though Player A has a higher usage and is slightly more efficient.  Here are their shooting numbers:

Player A: 54% of attempts, 37.1 eFG%
Player B: 54% of attempts, 38.5 eFG%

Close non-dunks:
Player A: 27% of attempts, 45.9 eFG%
Player B: 31% of attempts, 45.8 eFG%

Player A: 16% of attempts, 92.6 eFG%
Player B: 13% of attempts, 92.0 eFG%

Player A: 3% of attempts, 53.6 eFG%
Player B: 2% of attempts, 25.0 eFG%

Player A has the Tips advantage, but it's such a tiny percentage of attempts it's barely a factor.  Apart from that, the numbers are eerily close.

Player A is Hakim Warrick the past two years (on Memphis and Milwaukee).
Player B is Tyrus Thomas this season.

The numbers say Warrick is slightly better offensively, but their styles are similar.  They're extremely athletic, they'll give you lots of easy points from dunks and free throws, and as a bonus, Warrick doesn't turn the ball over.  On the flip side, they're mediocre on the offensive glass, poor at scoring inside, and have terrible shot selection.  Here's a Warrick highlight video for a taste of what we'll be seeing.


Per 36 stats:
0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 4.8 drebs

Just awful stats for a power forward.  

For perspective, in rate terms, Warrick averaged a 1.1 STL% and 1.3 BLK% over the past two years.  Add them together for 2.4%, and that ranks 8th worst in the NBA among PFs/Cs (Haslem, Scola, Randolph, Lee, Jamison, Bonner, Murphy).  Of those 8, Warrick's 16.2 dREB% is the worst.

Those numbers alone don't necessarily mean Warrick's a terrible defender.  Jason Collins, for example never put up big stats either and was very good defensively because he was a widebody who sealed the post.  But Warrick's a beanpole.


The numbers suggest Warrick's a slightly better version of Tyrus offensively, and downright awful defensively.  Neither description is particularly good.  And that shows up in Adjusted Plus Minus.

From 2006-2009, Warrick's -6.40 APM ranked 4th worst in the NBA (Damien Wilkins, Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry) among players who played over 5000 minutes.  Warrick's 2008-2009 basketballvalue APM was -5.19, and his current two-year APM stands at -3.62.  

(Note: 2-year APMs come with a high error, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from those numbers alone.  But the 4-year APM has a much lower error, and when a 4-year APM, more recent two-year APMs and the Per36 stats all point to the same thing, there's a higher and higher probability that it's close to the truth.)

I'm happy we've traded Salmons for an expiring, and I honestly couldn't care less about how this season turns out.  But for those hoping Warrick helps us earn a playoff berth, the numbers suggest Warrick will hurt us more than help.

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