Summer 2010 = summer 2000? oh no....
by Leefer on Feb 12, 2010 1:21 AM CST
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PrintThis is something I have been wondering. How can we get enough cap space for someone of star caliber and yet keep a descent roster. I mean a complete roster, because by the look of "potential and rumor" deals, we lose players. Players, bodies, whatever... there is a league minimum to have. I feel that if we get rid of Ty Thomas and Kirk Hinrich sometime before summer, don't resign Lindsey Hunter and Brad Miller, we are left with some holes to fill. I am in line with the next guy, sign someone big, but is there a consequence to it? Will are starters be top 3 in the East, yet have a bench that reminds you of JV?
So let's say Hinrich or if we are LUCKY and get rid of (or if he opts out, which realistically wont happen unless his agent is some sort of wizard) John Salmons instead and don't resign anybody on this squad, we have 6 players under contract, 7 if both Hinrich and Salmons stays. We have money for one big free agent (even though a certain sports network and site continue to say we can get two, but not true) or a few pieces. What do we do, do we whiff and end up signing Pargo to 2 years and settling for David Lee? (don't get me wrong, Lee is a fine player, but not fine to have hope for) Even more so, with this money potentially going to a free agent or two, we have to keep in mind a few things... will there be a lockout after the CBA runs out? And after this season, Noah, Rose, Taj, and James (belongs in D-League) Johnson all will need extensions... well personally I hope not JJ.
So with all this pre-trade deadline and perhaps big summer hype, like in 2000, will we whiff and strike out and setlle on Ron Mercer again? I will love and follow this team no matter what, but if nothing is done to take the next step, I might just go insane asking myself what's next.
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Having Rose, Noah, and Deng will be enough of a draw to get us somebody better than Mercer.
Will it be a franchise altering player? When you consider that some of the top FA’s will stay with their teams, and that the Bulls will have to outbid several other teams for whatever max FA’s end up being in play, I find this highly doubtful. Joe Johnson, or David Lee do not make the Bulls a contender. If we managed to get both of them, we’d have used up all of our cap space and will have a bench which will make this years bench look awesome by comparison.
The only way this works for me is if the Bulls can somehow mange to get Lebron, Wade, or Bosh. Otherwise, if we gave up BG, Tyrus, and Kirk for David Lee, or Joe Johnson, I’m gonna be real unhappy.
I voted Amare
My 2010 FA predictions:
NJ wins the lottery and drafts John Wall. The opportunity to play with this budding superstar in a large market convinces LeBron to shock the world and sign with the Nets. NJ than uses their remaining cap room to ink Ray Allen.
Ruining the dreams of Bulls fans, D-Wade decides to resign with Miami, bringing his buddy Chris Bosh with him.
After the top 3 FAs of 2010 sign, Amare Stoudemire has now become the premier FA on the market. As several teams have offered him the max, the ball is in Amare’s court, and he chooses… the Bulls! Realizing how much more tantalizing the opportunity of playing along D-Rose was compared to the other options, STAT signs with Chicago.
Having struck out on choices 1-4, the Knicks use their money to offer a max contract to Joe Johnson, who accepts as nobody else was willing to give him that much.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, having just enough money to offer a max deal, extend a massive offer to Rudy Gay. Having set their sights on the FA market of 2011, the Grizzlies decline to match the offer.
The Houston Rockets, having been spurned in their attempt to sign Bosh and Stoudemire, go to their plan C: Carlos Boozer, getting him at a relatively cheap price, as the number of teams with cap room dwindle.
The OKC Thunder add another all-star talent to their young core by giving David Lee just enough money so that the Knicks couldn’t match their bid, having given JJ the max.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, having been spurned by all of the upper-tier FAs, decide to gamble on Tracy McGrady.
Atlanta, using the cap space now afforded to them by the loss of JJ, sign Manu Ginobili, having slightly more than the MLE, allowing them to outbid anybody without cap space.
Boston offers Mike Miller the full MLE in an attempt to salvage a sinking ship.
I love how people assume that Wade will re-sign with Miami
Simply because they have enough space to sign another max-type FA. If the Bulls dump Salmons and Kirk they would have $31 to $33 million in cap space, while retaining a core of Rose, Deng and Noah. Miami with all the weather and nightclubs they can offer cannot surround Wade and one of his pals around talent like that.
$33 mill would allow us to sign (2) max-type players and if Bosh wants to come we can always include Deng in a sign and trade deal with the Raptors for Bosh and Wright, which would give us enough money ($8 to 10 Mill or so)to fill out our roster.
We would still have enough money to absorb a contract through a team will to dump salary to help us fill a need at the SF position. The possibilities are endless people. I know that teams can’t tamper, but I think the Bulls have a pretty good idea, that we will be able to get a couple of top-tier FA’s.
Maybe Wade and Bosh is my little pipe dream, but I would be fine with Joe Johnson and Boozer. I just think it would be smart for them to play for a team that already has an All-Star PG and a border-line All-Star at center.
Wade 2010!!!!!
if we trade our draft pick, and if we didn’t have roster holds charged against the cap, this would be true.
Unfortunately it’s not. The NBA expects teams to have players on them. The estimate of cap space is probably $2-5mil. too high, depending on if we keep our draft pick, and what position we draft in (after these trades, it’s likely to be a lottery pick). We can probably afford one Max FA, and maybe a couple role players. If that is a legit max FA, as I mentioned above, it may get us where we want to be.
If we can do a sign and trade, then we could get 2 max FA’s, but of course we’d have to give up player(s), probably draft picks also, which means we’d have yet more holes to fill. This would have the advantage of activating the MLE as it would put us over the salary cap, but the possible loss of Deng & draft picks makes this advantage dubious at best.
Using Deng in a sign and trade would give us like $8 to $10 mill in cap-room.
Typical Bulls fan, looking for ways we can fail this off-season.
Wade 2010!!!!!
As I said, if the Bulls retain their draft pick, and after cap holds are included, cap space would be more like $26-29mil.
If the Bulls sign a max FA for about $17mil. and give up Dengs $11mil for a sign and trade of say Bosh which will have him making more like $20mil. we’re actually right on the edge of the salary cap. We may be a million or 2 under, so i’ll give you partial credit on that. Unfortunately, this would actually be bad as we would have to replace Deng and restock our bench with our draft pick,a couple million dollars and no MLE. If we gave up our draft pick, then we’d probably have $3-5mil to replace Deng and fill our bench. Though I disagree with your numbers, you have given me hope that it is at least possible in theory.
We have different versions of FAILURE. If the Bulls are able to sign Wade, Bosh, Amare, or maybe even JJ, plus add a cou[ple solid role players who fit what they want to do, and have a pick that I believe will be a lottery pick in a strong draft, they should have a good chance to contend next year. That’s success, to turn a midlevel team into contender in ONE offseason seems like success to me.
I'm not saying it's impossible for Wade to come here
I just think it’s more likely he says in Miami, realistically. However I’m still holding out hope just like you are
Where would I rather be?
Contending, that’s where. I can’t imagine Wade (or almost any player) would stay in a situation of mediocrity and warm weather rather than championship contention and cold weather.
Now it would be up to the Bulls on creating that championship contending situation. Fingers = crossed.
by Will Perdue's Pinky Ring on Feb 12, 2010 5:16 PM CST up reply actions
If it is like 2000, at least that means they tried
I’d much rather fail trying to put together a championship team, then continue with mediocrity. All I can ask from my front office is to do everything they can to win championships. If they fail doing that, so be it.
If they succeed at being average, I’d be a lot more pissed off.
by Grinder in Training on Feb 12, 2010 8:18 AM CST reply actions
Amare won't get the max.
He’ll be near max, but no way he gets the max.
Boozer and JJ too. They are all within the ballpark, but Boozer opting into his 12 mil or so this year is a pretty clear sign of what he’ll get on the market, and it’s not something starting at 16 mil or whatever “the max” is.
Bosh, Wade, Lebron are the only three that likely get a true max. The other guys probably fall somewhere in between a Deng type contract and the max.
It’s about supply and demand, not what the player is worth purely on their merit.
While the potential supply of PF’s is substantial, the demand of teams that have pissed away 1 or even more seasons on the basis of ’we’re going to get a star free agent in 2010’ may turn out to be even greater. Especially if say Amare doesn’t opt out, or Bosh stays in Toronto. A team like the Knicks HAS to get somebody good be it David Lee, or another FA. There is no option of not going after somebody because they’re offered a contract by somebody else that’s ‘more than they’re worth’. Their fanbase will mutiny…
With SG’s this is even more true as the supply is very limited. I will be shocked if JJ doesn’t get the max. If Wade doesn’t move it’s almost a certainty.
Look at this last offseason.
Boozer would’ve opted out by your parameters.
There were only a few teams with a lot of cap space, but nobody on the market as good as Boozer.
Gordon, Turkulu and a few others got overpaid, but those are smaller deals than the Max.
I agree with your logic on JJ, but I think it results in him getting slightly less than the max compared to what he would get in a more team friendly market (even less). He’s getting older and teams are more cautious than ever in this climate.
It would be interesting to have a black and white predictions thread though. Everybody estimating where and how much people will get, including length and dollar figures on contracts. We’ll know in 6 months or so how well we did anyways.
I don’t think Boozer anticipated that teams would be willing to spend much under the economic circumstances. Plus he missed a lot of time with injuries, and he probably felt his value would be depressed by that. If Bosh and Amare don’t end up being available Boozer will benefit from his decision. If Bosh and Amare end up being in play, then Boozer may be disappointed.
The Gordon case is revealing. On the first day of free agency, Detroit made BG a bigger offer than the Bulls had ever made to him. Even though, in effect, they were bidding against themselves. After Detroit traded Billups for Iverson, and then tanked the rest of the season, their fanbase was angry. This decision was sold to the fans by telling them ‘now we have cap room and can retool the team with younger players’. When free agency came, they HAD to make a splash, they had NO CHOICE. Since Gordon was the best player available to them, they HAD to get him, so they offered him a contract that they KNEW nobody else would match.
This season there are going to be at least 4 teams in the position Detroit was in last year. Chicago, Miami, New York, and New Jersey. There might be others, but I can’t think of them right now. The Bulls are at worst the second most attractive team among the four, which should help, but if we don’t want to get stuck with this seasons equivalent of Ron Mercer we’ll probably have to be willing to overpay. The teams competing with us will certainly not hesitate to do so.
That's what im saying
I think Bosh is the only big who will get the max. All the others will get 14 to 15 mill.
Wade 2010!!!!!
championship would require
one thing and one thing only…. BRON
yeah, because he's prone to winning championships.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
by chapuforyou on Feb 12, 2010 10:18 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Have you seen his team?
They are a joke. I find it funny that everyone assumes Bron will stay with the Cavs because “Why leave the best team”. They are the best team only because Lebron is on that team. Who do they have? Mo Williams? He is injured and they are going on a 12 game winning streak so obviously he doesn’t matter that much. Shaq? Ilgauskas? Injured and WAY past their prime. Varejao? Hustle guy that is undersized. Now who do the Bulls have. An allstar in Rose (and a legit allstar because Mo was picked as a backup to Nelson last year). candidate for MIP in Noah. Deng who has a sweet outside J and can rebound well. How is that not a better foundation than the Cavs? Lebron is clearly the MVP. Look at what the Lakers are doing without Kobe. You think the Cavs could do the same without Lebron? No way. He is the best player in basketball. he knows it. He wants out of Cleveland so he is making it his mission to win a championship before he leaves. The best thing that can happen to the Cavs is they make the finals and lose in Game 7. Lebron couldn’t leave then. He is too loyal. But he could leave knowing he did his job if he brings that city a championship. Lebron is coming to Chicago. I just hope Paxgardorf make a strong push and don’t settle for Joe Johnson.
We couldn't even put together a better deal for Gasol.
It’s a stretch to imagine talking Lebron into something here. There are too many other more competent teams with more favorable conditions (market, players, cap space).
If the Bulls really do make a few salary dumps to free up the space, get rid of Del Negro and hire somebody like Avery Johnson right away, then they certainly have a chance to jump teams such as New York and New Jersey (LAC too), but it’s still a tough sell versus joining Wade in Miami. I really think the Jordan stuff is an underrated negative for Lebron hopes as well.
But I really just don’t see our org making aggressive enough moves to put us in a position where we’re as favorable to Lebron coming as possible.
i dont think the cavs are a joke. they dont have any stars at all beyond lebron thats true
but they all do at least one thing very well, kind of like the rockets. varejao and hickson do a good job moving baseline off the ball. hes got great spot up shooters. they defend well. they rebound well. its not top heavy in the least— and top heavy teams are usually the ones that win titles— but they arent a joke. if they actually play to their ability in the playoffs (big if, since they all took a dump last year) they could definitely roll with lebron to a title, because you know hes going to kill everyone in the postseason.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
calling them a joke was strong
but I just wanted to get across that their team isn’t amazing or better than the Bulls (leaving Lebron off both teams).
I hate Anderson Varejao more than the next guy.
But he’s 6’11, not undersized. Other than that I agree with basically all of your Cavs player diagnosis.
by BigBabyCollin on Feb 12, 2010 6:57 PM CST up reply actions
Wrong choice of words
Basically I was saying that Varajao is “undersized” because he is not as tall as Noah nor is his hair as cool.
you wanna bet hes not coming to chicago
by rosegirldotcom on Feb 14, 2010 11:41 AM CST up reply actions
Why would I bet?
If I win the bet and the Bulls get Lebron then we both win because the Bulls would have Lebron.
No matter what we do, we can't do much worse than the Pistons last summer.
That team is a mess.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
Especially te Pistons and Knicks
But I just don’t understand how the Pistons are that bad. They have Ben Gordon, the best SG in basketball. All sarcasm aside, I do miss Ben and he would be great for this team at 9 mill a year. Rose, BG, Bron, Taj, Noah with Deng as sixth man. Minimum 8 peat.
i'd think
you could get away with starting bron and deng together, and leave taj on the bench.
"They should. They better. I'm Vinny Del Negro!"
trade deng, hinrich for expirings and sign wade, bosh
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
by chapuforyou on Feb 12, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
and say goodbye to Lebron ever winning a championship.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
by chapuforyou on Feb 12, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
haha
I like that squad.. BG was the shit, such a stud in the 4th.. And as sad as it is to see BG not be good as usual this year, idc cuz the pistons suckkk haha
I thought Gordon was playing well this year.
I know he started out really hot, but I stopped following or caring after a month or so.
He's been hurt for a while
Joakim on whether he ever tried tennis: "I played a little bit. If anybody on the Bulls wanted to play me, I would kick their ass."
Well either way you look at it, I don't think there's a chance we get Lebron.
If it’s about money, he can stay with Cleveland for the extra dough.
If it’s about market, he has New York and New Jersey in front of Chicago.
If it’s about creating a dynamic rivalry, he can go to the Clippers.
If it’s purely about talent and skill around him, he’s better off in Miami or even the Clippers (Blake, Kaman, Gordon, Davis probably trumps Rose, Noah, Deng unless you can get a good SG or PF for Deng).
And we’re not even mentioning the Jordan Factor, which seems to go against Lebron in just about every logical way.
I think it is about all of those combined.
For the money issue Lebron could either force a sign and trade with Cleveland or just figure that the bigger stage Chicago would offer would mean more money (along with a supposed increase in his NIke contract if he plays in any of the top 3 markets). Sure New York has a bigger market than Chicago does, but they don’t have the core players that Chicago does. The dynamic rivalry with being in LA is an interesting point, but I don’t think a big draw. Yes the Clippers might have a better base with Blake, Kaman, Gordon and Davis, but if you want to talk about dysfunction then the Clippers actually trump the Bulls. Plus they have a cursed franchise. Bill Simmons did a great post about all their injuries that they have had to lottery picks and such. And I think we have to factor in a players ego. Bosh recently said that he was tired of being thrown around as a sidekick. That Bosh should sign with James and Wade. Bosh was saying that he is a franchise player that you build around. Everyone talks about Wade and Bosh or Wade and James, but maybe those players don’t want to play with one another. Maybe they are actually competitive and want to prove that they are the best in the league. If you look at our star, Rose, he is the must humble of the group. The kind of guy that a star who is all about his image, endorsements and making his name the biggest in the world. Derrick Rose would be the ideal teammate.
As for the Jordan factor, that’s another ego thing. Proving that you can be bigger than Jordan’s shadow. Plus wouldn’t it only heighten James’ status being always linked to Jordan?
I udnerstand Bulls fans are all about Low Expectations because the organization has disappointed consistently over the last 12 years. But maybe we should start thinking positively and make these blogs more constructive then just a bash fest. Have hope for the future. Enjoy watching the Bulls. After all, it’s just a game.
by paxdorf on Feb 14, 2010 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Lot errors in that post
Was distracted by Ushers horrible singing for the Allstar game
Oh, and the management/coaching factor.
Which can be changed, but why go into a situation that you’ll need to advocate an overhaul in? Doesn’t really make sense. That certainly eliminates Chicago and LAC. It gives points to Miami, possibly NY. Anybody that changes coaches/GMs and potentially upgrades before Lebron opts out would then have a better shot under this factor.
VDN
The Bulls have to get a new coach if they want any major free agent, let alone LeBron. It’s not hard to see how ineffective (or even outright horrible) he is in multiple ways.
If there’s one thing that keeps LeBron out of Chicago, it’s the “Jordan Factor;” the fact that there’s very little (if any) chance he’ll be the greatest Chicago Bull ever. He could easily become the greatest Knickerbocker, Net, or Clipper (lol) ever. Not so much for the Bulls.
It’s possible that the Jordan Factor is a positive in LeBron’s eyes, if his previously shown respect for him (when he said that no one in the league should wear 23) is a true sentimental man-love story rather than a PR move to make him look better. I highly doubt it, but it’s possible.
by Will Perdue's Pinky Ring on Feb 12, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with you completely.
Except I still think that we have a good chance to get a JJ or Boozer or Lee if we kept VDN.
Not that I want to see it, I’m probably one of the people here who most wants to rid the team of VDN, but I don’t think Boozer nor Lee nor JJ passes up an extra 1-2 mil a year in Chicago to go sign with NY or NJ because VDN is here.
But with a star of Lebron or Wade’s caliber, those are guys that can actually get GMs to make deals that they want, or to give them a sort of veto power. I don’t see them wanting to get involved with Chicago as long as VDN is here, and maybe not even with the GMs we have had lately. I could definitely be wrong on the latter part though.
GMs
Well, as far as “management” goes, it consists of a guy who had to be given a promotion to keep him from quitting, and another guy who’s only consistent behavior on his resume is being shady and borderline-unethical. And Dorf if you want to count him, which you probably should.
It’ll be one of those cases where the player might not know how good/bad management is, but their agent certainly will. Though sketchy management shouldn’t be a dealbreaker if the supporting cast and coach are good.
by Will Perdue's Pinky Ring on Feb 12, 2010 3:30 PM CST up reply actions
VDN has to go
You think VDN will let Lebron dance on the court and show off, VDN would bench him right away.
You want him
To dance on the court like a fool? I wouldn’t bench him for it the only time I would is when we are up by 25.
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